Race for Ping Pong Balls

[The Effect]

Detroit has:
Nuggets at Pistons for a 21.1% chance to win
Heat at Pistons for a 21.7% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Detroit to win one more game at 38.2%

OKC has:
Jazz at Thunder for a 14.3% chance to win
Clippers at Thunder for a 16.2% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for OKC to win one more game at 28.2%

As important, (if the above is true) the odds that EITHER Detroit or OKC wins one game is 55.6%

.....

In case Orlando does not lose-out to close this season.

Cleveland has:
Cavs at Wizards for a 31.4% chance to win
Cavs at Nets for a 13.9% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Cleveland to win one more game at 40.9%

Minnesota has:
Nuggets at T-wolves for a 29.3% chance to win
Celts at T-wolves for a 33.9% chance to win
Mavs at T-wolves for a 28.7% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Minnesota to win one more game at 66.7.9%

.....

And on the notion of Orlando losing-out.

Orlando has:
Magic at Hawks for a 24.8% chance to win
Magic at Sixers for a 14.1.9% chance to win
Magic at Sixers for a 13.9% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Orlando to LOSE-OUT at 55.6%
To match the above:
(if true) That places the chance for Orlando to win one more game at 44.4%

That 2nd 76ers game has W written all over it. They’ll rest guys and we’ll close out hard to end on a good note.

I know that cliff is not a tank kinda guy is says they are trying to win at all costs, but i dont know if i believe this. I really do think he is trying to make sure we get a top pick. I didnt believe it for a long time, but seeing them sign all these scrubs like wagner, iggy franks etc and play them big minutes right away while holding out guys that have no reason to be out there (ross, WCjr etc)

I think the detroit game was the best sign for me that they were dedicatedf to the tank. I know we won that, but that was a full on tank game by both teams and our scrubs just happened to outplay their scrubs. In that game, Gary Harris played less than 10 mins, cole and WJ played right around 20 and the only starter to play big mins was newly signed wagner (41mins), and the bench guys all played 30mins
Rj - 35,
Iggy, in his first game with us, play 32
randle - 30
Bamba, who should of gotten more minutes in this scenario, played the least (29) of the tank unit and gave way to wagner for much of the game

I think after Cole made that game winner, Cliff and the FO probably just went into full tank mode to make sure we still end up near the top of the draft

In those philly games, even if philly benches their starters, i wouldnt be surprised to see Cliff go with that same strategy and play Franks, Wagner, iggy and randle 35+ mins

i REALLY hope im right about this

[GelbeWand09]

Read on Twitter

oh oh, lets hope at least 2 of them play tonight

[Message Boar]

They still split the combinations and will both have the same odds.

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but one will be slotted lower than the other based on the coin toss to determine the floor of the draft pick

Yeah like 133 combinations, compared to 132. The top 2 get 140 apiece.

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Yes, but if neither team's number comes up, the coin toss winner still gets to pick before the loser. That's mainly what the big deal is, I think?

[The Effect]

Read on Twitter

oh oh, lets hope at least 2 of them play tonight

If those guys dont play, Iggy and Franks better each play 35+ mins! Randle too

Go ahead and sit Cole and WC

[thelead]

but one will be slotted lower than the other based on the coin toss to determine the floor of the draft pick

Yeah like 133 combinations, compared to 132. The top 2 get 140 apiece.

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Yes, but if neither team's number comes up, the coin toss winner still gets to pick before the loser. That's mainly what the big deal is, I think?

That's right. Let's say we end up in a 2 way tie for 3rd. The coin toss will determine that one extra combination but the bigger deal is who actually sits at 3 and who sits at 4 in the event that we don't win the lotto (any pick from 1-4). If you sit at 3, you could fall to 7th. If you sit at 4, you could fall to 8th.

[thelead]

Read on Twitter

oh oh, lets hope at least 2 of them play tonight

I wasn't worried about the Hawks... now I am

[Skybox]

There is no tiebreaker. Teams with the same record split the odds. Odd number of balls goes to a coin flip for one extra ball.

There is a tiebreaker to decide what order the tied teams actual draft once the top 4 picks are decided by the lotto.

Yes. There is a "coin flip" before the draft lottery that determines both the share of lotto balls, if they cannot be partitioned, and then the order of drafting. For example, if OKC and Orlando finish tied for 3 and 4, there are 140 + 125 balls to divide. So the winner of the pre-lotto lottery gets the extra lotto-ball combination (i.e. 133 chances to win over 132 chances) AND the higher pick if neither team goes top-4.

..

Key word here is BEFORE the lottery. Would make no sense after.

[drsd]

Key word here is BEFORE the lottery. Would make no sense after.

Well there could be a coin-flip to break uneven lotto ball combinations. And then another coin-flip to break non-top4 ties. The later could easily be after the lottery to lead to the same level of fairness.

..

[Knightro]

Everybody relax

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[thelead]

Everybody relax

Read on Twitter

[KillMonger]

What? You want Magic who already field one of the worst rosters ever to go the extra mile? They did enough. This roster post trade deadline, had they played an entire year, doesn't win double digit games. Easily. I think a lot of Magic fans don't want to hear that though, they want to believe the Magic are good enough that they have to try to lose. Its laughable in my opinion to think the Magic didn't do enough. Sorry, we don't even have a guy on Horfords level to even force him to sit out thats how bad this team is. Best we could do is sit Ross, who isn't really that great to begin with, and we did sit him anyway.

well i mean obviously we're sitting where we are in the standings so we didn't do enough i think that's clear...that's not to say we didn't do nothing it's just we didn't start the tank early enough....i think when you trade away your three best players that should be a signal for everyone to be on the same page...With the trades plus the injuries it should've been a concerted effort from the FO to get the tank up and running immediately...but instead you had clifford talking about trying to make the play-in when other teams were already tanking....At this point we're pretty much locked in so it is what it is....maybe you think we did enough...i think we could've done more but didn't because it seems like we were above the most drastic of measures....even josh robbins put something out saying we shouldn't be above tanking and tanking tactics.....but hey we'll see i guess

Amazing. I'm suffering having to watch Bacon be the leader of this team and now I'm told we aren't doing enough to suck.

Only the Magic board could come up with this stuff. I guess Clifford should have talked about how they had to lose every game.

i mean we could've done just a bit more...don't see how that's not clear...but at this point it doesn't matter anymore

[drsd]

Chicago can no longer slot 7.

[drsd]

Philly losing to Miami tomorrow would be big because it would all but guarantee the Sixers play their guys at least the first game against Orlando.

You called it !

[drsd]

Today's tankathon pull:
Orlando 1
Chicago 4


....

Orlando is tied at #3/#4 with OKC
Orlando is 1 game better than #4/#5 Cleveland/Minnesota
Orlando is 1 game worse than #2 Detroit


Chicago sits at #8
Chicago cannot slot #7
Chicago is 1 game worse than #9/#10 New Orleans/Sacramento
Chicago is 2 games out of a play-in slot with only 2-games left to play


The computers have the Magic finishing tied for 3/4 and the Bulls at 8.

..

[basketballRob]

Looks like the 76ers hold the tiebreaker over the Nets, so they only need 1 win to clinch.

Too bad the Suns won by 1 point last night, or the Jazz would've clinched and rested everyone against OKC.

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[pepe1991]

i want to see Lakers in playin, damn stupid Covington and his brick FTs

[Last Guardian]

well i mean obviously we're sitting where we are in the standings so we didn't do enough i think that's clear...that's not to say we didn't do nothing it's just we didn't start the tank early enough....i think when you trade away your three best players that should be a signal for everyone to be on the same page...With the trades plus the injuries it should've been a concerted effort from the FO to get the tank up and running immediately...but instead you had clifford talking about trying to make the play-in when other teams were already tanking....At this point we're pretty much locked in so it is what it is....maybe you think we did enough...i think we could've done more but didn't because it seems like we were above the most drastic of measures....even josh robbins put something out saying we shouldn't be above tanking and tanking tactics.....but hey we'll see i guess

Amazing. I'm suffering having to watch Bacon be the leader of this team and now I'm told we aren't doing enough to suck.

Only the Magic board could come up with this stuff. I guess Clifford should have talked about how they had to lose every game.

i mean we could've done just a bit more...don't see how that's not clear...but at this point it doesn't matter anymore

You want a professional NBA coach to encourage his team to lose

I give up.

[Knightro]

i mean we could've done just a bit more...don't see how that's not clear...but at this point it doesn't matter anymore

The Magic are probably going to finish 6-22 post trade deadline. Extrapolate that .214 winning percentage over an 82 game season and you're talking 17 or 18 wins. They've tanked it. Ross is healthy enough to play. MCW is healthy enough to play. Ennis is healthy enough to play. They've actively sat healthy veterans and pretended they have injuries when they actually don't.

Detroit since the trade deadline has won 8 times. Minnesota has won 12 times. The only teams that have really outtanked the Magic are Houston and Oklahoma City, but that doesn't mean the Magic haven't tried to be bad.

They got a couple of unlucky breaks along the way. Catching New Orleans when Zion, Lonzo *and* Ingram were all injured at the same time. Bad luck. Catching the Clippers without like half their roster was bad luck. But other than that, teams pick up random wins out of nowhere here and there. The Rockets beat the Bucks. The Thunder beat the Celtics, etc. Wins inevitably happen.

The only game the Magic won this year that really annoys me is the Suns game right before the deadline. To let all those veterans play and pick up a meaningless win when you knew you were trading all of them away the next day is really perplexing and frustrating.

[KillMonger]

Amazing. I'm suffering having to watch Bacon be the leader of this team and now I'm told we aren't doing enough to suck.

Only the Magic board could come up with this stuff. I guess Clifford should have talked about how they had to lose every game.

i mean we could've done just a bit more...don't see how that's not clear...but at this point it doesn't matter anymore

You want a professional NBA coach to encourage his team to lose

I give up.

show me where i said that......don't mind me you can continue your giving up....i said what i needed to say....so i guess we can just leave it there

[basketballRob]

Looks like Dwight's suspended for tonight's game after picking up his 16th technical.

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