GAME 71: Clippers (47-23) @ Rockets (16-54)— Friday 8PM PDT

[RingColluder]

Over the last 10 games, in plus-minus

Kawhi
Zu
PG
Reggie

Beverley 12th
Mann 15th

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612746&LastNGames=10

The difference though is staggering:
9.8 for Kawhi

which drops to a 6.2 for Zu

and drops AGAIN to a 4.6 for PG.

---
Kawhi is worth more than 2x PG in plus minus? Interesting.

[Quake Griffin]

Did this team just try to duck the Lakers in the first round?

[og15]

I'm not really sure what the plan was, but it sure seems like trying to avoid LAL.

Portland does have the tie breaker over LAL. Lakers need to win both. Portland has Denver, but if they win, they stay at 6th. Lakers are obviously trying to get out of the play in.

Big contrast between Lakers and Blazers. Lakers despite injuries are still the league's #1 defense. Portland is close to last. Bad defenses are simply MUCH easier to match up with in the post-season, and a healthier Lakers should be much better than a bottom offense.

I can certainly understand trying to avoid them.

[Oscar9992]

I think you guys intentionally losing to play with us instead of Blazers or LAL.

[TrueLAfan]

In terms of tanking to play/avoid the Lakers, I personally don't see it. Maybe so. Maybe not. Too many variables.

Personally, I couldn’t care less between the third or fourth seed. And, right now, I don’t have the slightest idea of how healthy LeBron James is, and that’s all that matters with the Lakers. He’s the greatest player in NBA history, IMO—but he’s also about to hit the downside of 36 and has missed 27 of the last 29 games, and was just okay in the two he did play before getting reinjured. Am I afraid of LeBron? You have to stupid not to be—he has been one of the few players able to carry a mediocre team past a very good to great team singlehandedly. But, again, he’s also 36, and has admits he’s not bouncing back like he used—and maybe never will. The questions—and they are real questions—are:

How much can he bounce back?
How long will it take to get to that level?
When can he start? (i.e. when does he play again?)

If he was a normal player, I’d say the answers would be something like 75% (this year), 3-4 weeks, and the next to last game of the season or first game of the playoffs. And that doesn’t bode well for the Lakers. But it’s LeBron, and he’s the GOAT, and I could see him being helpful from the first playoff game, and firing on 6 of 8 cylinders within two weeks. The question—will that be enough?

OTOH, about our own tanking—look, PatBev has looked like he’s straining. PG has been sick and played the last nine games and averaged 34 mpg. Kawhi needed a game off; he’s still struggling a little bit. If there was a game to give your major players a break or a rest, this was it. We tried to steal one, but we didn’t have enough firepower. I’m sure the coaching staff made a judgment call—should we have played Zu and Marcus 20-25 minutes each? Could Batum or Boogie have played 25 minutes? Any combo of those would probably have won the game for us … but would the extra wear and tear have been worth maybe going for a three seed?

[clipperlover]

I don't think this team is ducking anyone and the line-up top to bottom is deeper than any team out there. Lue had two games remaining to decide to stay in the #3 spot with a remote chance of #2 or to look at different player combinations. Whether we are #3 or #4 only gets us HCA in one round. So, makes sense to rest guys and look at line-ups.

Serge was able to get some time in. We now have Serge, Zu and Cousins to lock down the front line. We have 0 games on tape where an opponent can see how we will use them. If we had that trio last year, we would have fared much better. Lue was also able to take a look at Jay Scrubb.

How we play in the playoffs is only one factor to consider. Clips want to re-sign Kawhi. Seeing how youngs guys like Mann and Jay Scrubb are developing can give Kawhi confidence that the cupboard isn't bare.

[RingColluder]

It really shows the confidence this team has we're trying to duck teams

The Lakers looked phenomenal w LBJ And Dennis back. When have we ever had that level of chemistry? We just have to "out talent" them I guess and have some people miraculously show up. They seem to be firing on all cylinders

[og15]

I think you guys intentionally losing to play with us instead of Blazers or LAL.

Clippers would rather play the Blazers than Dallas, there's no fear of the Blazers, their defense is trash (though Nurkic missed a lot of the season), and Lillard's performance decreases in the playoffs overall even if he can have a big series, the consistency isn't there.

Lillard Regular Season vs Playoffs:
13-14: 11 games: 56.8 TS% / 57.8 TS% |Pts/36: 20.8 / 19.5
14-15: 5 games: 56.0 TS% / 49.1 TS% | Pts/36: 21.2 / 19.3
15-16: 11 games: 56.0 TS% / 52.7 TS% | Pts/36: 25.3 / 24.0
16-17: 4 games: 58.6 TS% / 55.0 TS% | Pts/36: 27.0 / 26.5
17-18: 4 games: 59.4 TS% / 47.1 TS% | Pts/36: 26.5 / 16.4
18-19: 16 games: 58.8 TS% / 56.6 TS% | Pts/36: 26.2 / 23.8
19-20: 4 games: 62.7 TS% / 61.8 TS% | Pts/36: 28.8 / 24.4
Total: 55 games: 58.3 TS% / 54.8 TS% | Pts/36: 24.4 / 22.2


Scoring efficiency: Lillard has been more efficient in the playoffs than regular season ONCE in his whole career, but more importantly, we can only count two times, 13-14 and 19-20 when he's stayed at a similar efficiency, and last season was just 4 games.

Scoring rate: Lillard has had a lower scoring rate in the playoffs in every single playoff series he's played in, but for example, 27.0 vs 26.5 is not a large difference, neither is 25.3 vs 24.0, and his team would generally be playing better opponents. So if we go by staying in the same scoring rate range, he's done so in 13-14, 14-15, 15-16 and 16-17, but he has dropped off in the last three seasons.

In a singular game he can always have a superstar performance, but over a whole playoff run, he has not consistently shown himself to have top tier impact. His big shots tend to overshadow this reality for a lot of people. If not for the Clippers injuries to both Paul and Griffin in the 2016 playoffs he could have had a first round exit in 5/7 playoff runs (and to be fair he hasn't had great teams).

His series closing games are also pretty up and down:

Game 6 vs Houston (W-1): 25 pts, 3 ast, 8/14 FG, 6/10 3PT, 4 tov, Game Winner
Game 5 vs San Antonio (L-22): 17 pts,10 ast, 7/18 FG, 1/4 3PT, 4 tov
Game 5 vs Memphis (L-6): 22 pts, 8/19 FG, 3 ast, 1.8 3PT, 6 tov
Game 6 vs LAC (vs no Paul/BG) (W-3): 28 pts, 7 ast, 7/24 FG, 2/6 3PT, 4 tov
Game 4 vs Golden State (L-25): 34 pts, 6 ast, 12/24 FG, 2/6 3PT, 4 tov
Game 4 vs New Orleans (L-8): 19 pts, 6 ast, 7/16 FG, 1/5 3PT, 3 tov
Game 5 vs Oklahoma (W-3): 50 pts, 6 ast, 17/33 FG, 10/18 3PT, 6 tov
Game 7 vs Denver (W-4): 13 pts, 8 ast, 3/17 FG, 2/9 3PT, 1 tov
Game 4 vs Golden State (L-2): 28 pts, 12 ast, 11/24 FG, 4/12 3PT, 4 tov
vs LA Lakers - Got injured and missed last game of series, and not really going to judge him on a game 5 where he didn't play the whole game.

All this to say, the Blazers as a TEAM aren't that good, primarily because of their defense. Lillard as an individual player in the playoffs is still good, but not as good as his regular season and he's not at the level of guys you are afraid of where he's going to single handedly carry a series. Luka from his one series is scarier than Lillard because he has size that can allow him to still impact even with a defense loaded up on him.

[RingColluder]

Looking at standards... of top 6 teams in last 10 games: UMMM...... NOT GOOD.

(From 76ers to Heat)

8-2 (W1)
6-4 (W4)
8-4 (W2)
6-4 (W2)
6-4 (W3)
8-2 (W4)

West: (Jazz to Portland)
7-3 (W1)
7-3 (W1)
7-3 (W1)
5-5 (L1)
8-2 (W2)
8-2 (L1)

[esqtvd]

Over the last 10 games, in plus-minus

Kawhi
Zu
PG
Reggie

Beverley 12th
Mann 15th

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612746&LastNGames=10

The difference though is staggering:
9.8 for Kawhi

which drops to a 6.2 for Zu

and drops AGAIN to a 4.6 for PG.

---
Kawhi is worth more than 2x PG in plus minus? Interesting.

For the season it's

Kawhi +8.6
PG +8.0


which is about what you'd expect and hope for. PG has big swings of hot and cold but there was even one 10-game stretch when Kawhi was closer to the bottom of the table than the top.


For the year, Beverley is 4th [4.3], Morris is 10th [2.1] and Mann is 15th [0.2]. This is why Bev is being given every chance to recapture his mojo.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612746

[MartinToVaught]

Looking at standards... of top 6 teams in last 10 games: UMMM...... NOT GOOD.

(From 76ers to Heat)

8-2 (W1)
6-4 (W4)
8-4 (W2)
6-4 (W2)
6-4 (W3)
8-2 (W4)

West: (Jazz to Portland)
7-3 (W1)
7-3 (W1)
7-3 (W1)
5-5 (L1)
8-2 (W2)
8-2 (L1)

That's a bit misleading, since the only reason we're not a "good" 6-4 is because we intentionally tanked last night.

[TrueLAfan]

The Lakers looked phenomenal w LBJ And Dennis back. When have we ever had that level of chemistry? We just have to "out talent" them I guess and have some people miraculously show up. They seem to be firing on all cylinders

Maybe you have a different definition of “phenomenal” than I do, but if you’re talking about today’s game, it sure looks like a near-full strength Laker squad struggled to get past an Indiana squad that was missing Sabonis, Brogdon, and Turner--and, Lamb, Holiday, and Warren too. I mean, for God’s sake, Goga Bitadze, JaKarr Simpson and Kelan Martin played almost 80 minutes. Indiana shot over 51% from the field. It was largely a single digit game the whole way; the Lakers put some distance between them at the beginning of the fourth—and Indiana came back big, and cut it to three with three minutes to go. They were still only down by five when LeVert missed those two threes in the last minute. It's surely a W, and for a team that's 12-17 since mid-March, that's fine--but the Lakers hardly looked “phenomenal” at any point. It looked to me like they were straining against a sub-.500 team with a woefully depleted lineup.

I don’t want to bad mouth any Western team because all of them are, at least, good. But Dallas doesn‘t throw any real fear into me—I don’t think they’re as good as they were last year. They’re not as good offensively and haven’t done anything new on D. (And, no, I don’t care about individual game results from six months ago.) Same with Portland, for the reasons og15 outlined. Of course, there’s a chance we’re deliberately avoiding teams. But there’s also a chance—probably more than a chance—that we’re more focused on our team and health than on other teams and factors beyond our control. In other words, we’re taking care of the things we have control over.

[esqtvd]

In terms of tanking to play/avoid the Lakers, I personally don't see it. Maybe so. Maybe not. Too many variables.

Personally, I couldn’t care less between the third or fourth seed. And, right now, I don’t have the slightest idea of how healthy LeBron James is, and that’s all that matters with the Lakers. He’s the greatest player in NBA history, IMO—but he’s also about to hit the downside of 36 and has missed 27 of the last 29 games, and was just okay in the two he did play before getting reinjured. Am I afraid of LeBron? You have to stupid not to be—he has been one of the few players able to carry a mediocre team past a very good to great team singlehandedly. But, again, he’s also 36, and has admits he’s not bouncing back like he used—and maybe never will. The questions—and they are real questions—are:

How much can he bounce back?
How long will it take to get to that level?
When can he start? (i.e. when does he play again?)

If he was a normal player, I’d say the answers would be something like 75% (this year), 3-4 weeks, and the next to last game of the season or first game of the playoffs. And that doesn’t bode well for the Lakers. But it’s LeBron, and he’s the GOAT, and I could see him being helpful from the first playoff game, and firing on 6 of 8 cylinders within two weeks. The question—will that be enough?

OTOH, about our own tanking—look, PatBev has looked like he’s straining. PG has been sick and played the last nine games and averaged 34 mpg. Kawhi needed a game off; he’s still struggling a little bit. If there was a game to give your major players a break or a rest, this was it. We tried to steal one, but we didn’t have enough firepower. I’m sure the coaching staff made a judgment call—should we have played Zu and Marcus 20-25 minutes each? Could Batum or Boogie have played 25 minutes? Any combo of those would probably have won the game for us … but would the extra wear and tear have been worth maybe going for a three seed?

Good post, but I think we tanked, lol. Jay Scrubb 40 minutes? Boogie 5?

[RingColluder]

The Lakers looked phenomenal w LBJ And Dennis back. When have we ever had that level of chemistry? We just have to "out talent" them I guess and have some people miraculously show up. They seem to be firing on all cylinders

Maybe you have a different definition of “phenomenal” than I do, but if you’re talking about today’s game, it sure looks like a near-full strength Laker squad struggled to get past an Indiana squad that was missing Sabonis, Brogdon, and Turner--and, Lamb, Holiday, and Warren too. I mean, for God’s sake, Goga Bitadze, JaKarr Simpson and Kelan Martin played almost 80 minutes. Indiana shot over 51% from the field. It was largely a single digit game the whole way; the Lakers put some distance between them at the beginning of the fourth—and Indiana came back big, and cut it to three with three minutes to go. They were still only down by five when LeVert missed those two threes in the last minute. It's surely a W, and for a team that's 12-17 since mid-March, that's fine--but the Lakers hardly looked “phenomenal” at any point. It looked to me like they were straining against a sub-.500 team with a woefully depleted lineup.

It's their first game back and LeBron looked like he never left. On this board we'd be making excuses for whoever looks rusty and score or otherwise I saw the CHEMISTRY on the Lakers to look phenomenal. So yes we do have different definitions

We threw that game, IDK why people can't see that and it's a bad sign to me. When Morris plays 9 minutes, Zu plays 3 and the rest of the team sits we're purposely avoiding the Lakers. I appreciate your confidence in the team, but nothing I've seen recently gives me any momentum heading into the playoffs against ANY team. the best stretch was maybe a 4-6 game period after Rondo came to the team but since then we've reverted back to old ways from some players.

It's easy and convenient to say “Of course we tanked the game, to avoid the Lakers!” Except we had no idea whether we would play the Lakers or not—and last night, we cut a 14 point deficit to 5 with 5 minutes remaining. Not exactly a tanking move. The smart action at that point, if you’re trying to lose, is to sub in some players for the hot hands that caught you up. And Lue did, indeed, call a timeout—and kept the same horses out there. Scrubb remembered he was playing his second NBA game and went 0-4 in that last five minutes. It was an ugly game, primarily played by our low rotation and back of the bench players. Which a lot of teams do at the end of the year in the final game or two. It is what it is.

And in this case, pretty typical and maybe justified. In the last game last season, we played Coffey and McGruder 100 minutes (not a misprint). We rested our big players—but in retrospect it may have been too little too late. Kawhi had played in 17 of the last 18 games. PG had played in 22 out of 24. It was like we load managed the first part of the season—and then, after we were in the bubble, threw it out the window. Maybe there’s no correlation between that and us looking so flat so often in the playoffs. Or that several players looked like (and said) they were gassed. Anyway, going into last night’s game, Marcus had played 19 of the last 21 games. Zu had/has not missed a game all year. Kawhi had played 6 straight games coming off an injury. PG had played in the last 12 out of 13, and averaged over 35 minutes per game in the last seven. Would it have been better to sit them and everyone else against the Thunder, rather than the Pacers? Neither? Both? I don’t like the whole concept of load management, but trying to act like teams sitting players in the last few games is always related to tanking or avoiding a matchup isn’t realistic. It fits a narrative—but it ignores the realities of what teams do at this time of the season.

As for the Lakers--I saw a team play a decidedly mediocre to poor game against a team that shouldn't have been close to them, "chemistry" or not. We made our run in the fourth quarter with a lineup of Daniel Oturu, Patrick Patterson, Jay Scrubb, Luke Kennard, and Yogi Ferrell. They had nice chemistry for a while too.

[RingColluder]

Looking at standards... of top 6 teams in last 10 games: UMMM...... NOT GOOD.

(From 76ers to Heat)

8-2 (W1)
6-4 (W4)
8-4 (W2)
6-4 (W2)
6-4 (W3)
8-2 (W4)

West: (Jazz to Portland)
7-3 (W1)
7-3 (W1)
7-3 (W1)
5-5 (L1)
8-2 (W2)
8-2 (L1)

That's a bit misleading, since the only reason we're not a "good" 6-4 is because we intentionally tanked last night.

I still don't like the pattern, and more lately than not we've had bad losses.

Let's get a nice solid win before the week off and end on a positive.

[RingColluder]

Over the last 10 games, in plus-minus

Kawhi
Zu
PG
Reggie

Beverley 12th
Mann 15th

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612746&LastNGames=10

The difference though is staggering:
9.8 for Kawhi

which drops to a 6.2 for Zu

and drops AGAIN to a 4.6 for PG.

---
Kawhi is worth more than 2x PG in plus minus? Interesting.

For the season it's

Kawhi +8.6
PG +8.0


which is about what you'd expect and hope for. PG has big swings of hot and cold but there was even one 10-game stretch when Kawhi was closer to the bottom of the table than the top.


For the year, Beverley is 4th [4.3], Morris is 10th [2.1] and Mann is 15th [0.2]. This is why Bev is being given every chance to recapture his mojo.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612746

OK, but more recently (which is more relevant and important) we've seen PG struggling and looking colder than ice cubes (in the worst way). And if you must, Bev can get one MAYBE two games to "find his mojo" but if not TMann will be ready to go. Again, TMann is getting minutes with the scrubs and 2nd team no idea how +/- factors into any of that.

[RingColluder]

In terms of tanking to play/avoid the Lakers, I personally don't see it. Maybe so. Maybe not. Too many variables.

Personally, I couldn’t care less between the third or fourth seed. And, right now, I don’t have the slightest idea of how healthy LeBron James is, and that’s all that matters with the Lakers. He’s the greatest player in NBA history, IMO—but he’s also about to hit the downside of 36 and has missed 27 of the last 29 games, and was just okay in the two he did play before getting reinjured. Am I afraid of LeBron? You have to stupid not to be—he has been one of the few players able to carry a mediocre team past a very good to great team singlehandedly. But, again, he’s also 36, and has admits he’s not bouncing back like he used—and maybe never will. The questions—and they are real questions—are:

How much can he bounce back?
How long will it take to get to that level?
When can he start? (i.e. when does he play again?)

If he was a normal player, I’d say the answers would be something like 75% (this year), 3-4 weeks, and the next to last game of the season or first game of the playoffs. And that doesn’t bode well for the Lakers. But it’s LeBron, and he’s the GOAT, and I could see him being helpful from the first playoff game, and firing on 6 of 8 cylinders within two weeks. The question—will that be enough?

OTOH, about our own tanking—look, PatBev has looked like he’s straining. PG has been sick and played the last nine games and averaged 34 mpg. Kawhi needed a game off; he’s still struggling a little bit. If there was a game to give your major players a break or a rest, this was it. We tried to steal one, but we didn’t have enough firepower. I’m sure the coaching staff made a judgment call—should we have played Zu and Marcus 20-25 minutes each? Could Batum or Boogie have played 25 minutes? Any combo of those would probably have won the game for us … but would the extra wear and tear have been worth maybe going for a three seed?

Good post, but I think we tanked, lol. Jay Scrubb 40 minutes? Boogie 5?

We 100% tanked Come on!!

[MartinToVaught]

It's their first game back and LeBron looked like he never left. On this board we'd be making excuses for whoever looks rusty and score or otherwise I saw the CHEMISTRY on the Lakers to look phenomenal. So yes we do have different definitions

We threw that game, IDK why people can't see that and it's a bad sign to me. When Morris plays 9 minutes, Zu plays 3 and the rest of the team sits we're purposely avoiding the Lakers.

It makes no sense to gush over how good LeBron looked and how much chemistry the Lakers have and then complain that we avoided playing them in the first round. If anything, it means we were right to avoid them.

[RingColluder]

It's their first game back and LeBron looked like he never left. On this board we'd be making excuses for whoever looks rusty and score or otherwise I saw the CHEMISTRY on the Lakers to look phenomenal. So yes we do have different definitions

We threw that game, IDK why people can't see that and it's a bad sign to me. When Morris plays 9 minutes, Zu plays 3 and the rest of the team sits we're purposely avoiding the Lakers.

It makes no sense to gush over how good LeBron looked and how much chemistry the Lakers have and then complain that we avoided playing them in the first round. If anything, it means we were right to avoid them.

It does make sense. They are only going to get better, less injured and have more momentum the further along in the playoffs we go. We cut the head off of the Lakers round 1 (obviously we're way better than the Pacers) and it's relatively smooth sailing from there.


People are just so desperate to watch the Clippers in the playoffs they'd rather have worse odds of winning it all to make it a week or two longer than doing what is actually BEST for the Clippers chances to win a ring.

[esqtvd]

The difference though is staggering:
9.8 for Kawhi

which drops to a 6.2 for Zu

and drops AGAIN to a 4.6 for PG.

---
Kawhi is worth more than 2x PG in plus minus? Interesting.

For the season it's

Kawhi +8.6
PG +8.0


which is about what you'd expect and hope for. PG has big swings of hot and cold but there was even one 10-game stretch when Kawhi was closer to the bottom of the table than the top.


For the year, Beverley is 4th [4.3], Morris is 10th [2.1] and Mann is 15th [0.2]. This is why Bev is being given every chance to recapture his mojo.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612746

OK, but more recently (which is more relevant and important) we've seen PG struggling and looking colder than ice cubes (in the worst way). And if you must, Bev can get one MAYBE two games to "find his mojo" but if not TMann will be ready to go. Again, TMann is getting minutes with the scrubs and 2nd team no idea how +/- factors into any of that.

MERCY. Over the past 10 games [already posted] PG is still 3RD on the team. There are no alternatives. We're all in on him, now give it a rest. Morris is 8th and Mann is FIFTEENTH.