RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 (Draymond Green)

Moderators: penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063

trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,551
And1: 8,180
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 (Draymond Green) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sat May 15, 2021 2:52 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. Elvin Hayes
60. Paul Arizin
61. Anthony Davis
62. Robert Parish
63. Bob Cousy
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Nate Thurmond
66. Allen Iverson
67. Tracy McGrady
68. Alex English
69. Vince Carter
70. Wes Unseld
71. Tony Parker
72. Rasheed Wallace
73. Dominique Wilkins
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo
75. Kevin Johnson
76. Bobby Jones
77. Bob McAdoo
78. Shawn Marion
79. Dennis Rodman
80. Larry Nance
81. Ben Wallace
82. Hal Greer
83. Grant Hill
84. Sidney Moncrief
85. Damian Lillard
86. Chris Bosh
87. Horace Grant
88. Jeff Hornacek
89. Billy Cunningham
90. Dan Issel
91. James Worthy
92. Carmelo Anthony
93. Terry Porter
94. Cliff Hagan
95. Nikola Jokic
96. Jack Sikma
97. Gus Williams
98. ???

Target stop-time around 10-11pm EST on Sunday.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,551
And1: 8,180
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Sat May 15, 2021 2:54 am

Few bullet points I wanted to bring up or re-iterate wrt LaMarcus Aldridge…..

*Going into this current season he had the 61st-highest career PER and 94th-highest career WS/48 of all-time…...and as these are rate metrics it’s worth noting this is in an avg of 34.4 mpg, in a career that spans over 1000 games in 14 seasons.
For perspective, Kawhi Leonard has NEVER averaged as much as 34.4 mpg in a single season…..not once. But that was LMA’s 14-year average.

**He was 61st all-time in career WS.

***BPM/VORP don’t like him as much, though he was still 89th all-time [or since 1973] in career rs VORP.

****He was tied for 62nd all-time in total All-Star selections [7]; this while playing his entire career in the Western Conference [in a 30-team league].

*****Although never 1st Team, he is tied for 50th all-time in total All-NBA selections [5]; this again while playing his entire career in a 30-team league.

******In terms of PIPM, he peaked at +3.5 (which, fwiw, is higher than the peak PIPM years for guys like Paul Millsap, Jack Sikma, NBA-Dan Issel, or even Kevin McHale; and only -0.1 shy of Reggie Miller’s peak, -0.2 shy of Larry Nance’s peak). He also has 7-8 OTHER years around +2 or higher.

*******From ‘06-’11 he has the 15th-best RAPM in that six-year span [despite that including his rookie season].

********Looking more broadly at the 18-year period of ‘97-’14, he had the 28th-best RAPM within that span (again: in big minutes).

*********And despite the fact that he was only in the league for 8 of those 18 years, he’s still 24th in RAPM points above average (basically cumulative value added according to RAPM) in that span.
Of the 23 players ahead of him in that span, only THREE of them have NOT already [long since] been voted on to our list…...and all three of those [Luol Deng, Baron Davis, and Metta] came into the league earlier and thus have more years [and far more possessions] contained within this time-period in which to accrue cumulative value.
LaMarcus went on to have 3-4 more very solid years via RAPM after this sample.

EDIT: And for whatever it's worth [considering we have more reliable metrics in his era], his WOWYR is also damn near all-time tier.

In short, there’s a lot to suggest that LaMarcus Aldridge has one of the 30-35 best careers of the last quarter-century (a time period which encompasses ~45% of all the player-seasons that have yet occurred in BAA/NBA/ABA history [and likely the most competitive 45% of that history]).

And yet I’m still almost on island here at #98. :dontknow:
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,551
And1: 8,180
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Sat May 15, 2021 2:58 am

1st vote: LaMarcus Aldridge
This was initially almost a coin-flip between him and Webber, but I'm more and more comfortable with it.
I don't think he peaked quite as high (peaking at probably a weak All-NBA 2nd Team level), but he was just so solidly consistent for about 11 straight years. It's left him in fairly high standing in various counting and cumulative metrics, but he also has a handful on years rating out in the top 12-15 of the league in terms of impact (see below).

Where some people try to label LMA as a low-efficiency volume scorer, I'd advise looking to his turnover economy, which is arguably GOAT [like for real: GOAT] among big-men. So his all-around offensive efficiency should be viewed in light of that.

He always struck me as reasonably solid defensively through his prime [above neutral at his worst].

And where some try to label him "empty stats", I'd note that is simply NOT reflected in the actual impact metrics. For instance, I'd note he has NINE seasons >+2 RAPM, and EIGHT above +3.
Below is his league rank in combined PI RAPM by year:
'09: 16th
'10: tied for 18th
'11: 21st
'12 (NPI): tied for 31st
'13: tied for 15th (with All-NBA 1st teamer Tim Duncan)
'14 (NPI): tied for 15th
'15: 25th
'16: 22nd
'17: notable dip (still positive, but no where near top of the league)
'18 (NPI, rs-only): 12th

So that's a solid decade where his impact metrics would fairly consistently posit him as a fringe All-Star at worst (and All-NBA 2nd/3rd team level at best), especially considering he played anywhere from 30.6 to 39.6 mpg [avg of 35.7 mpg] over this decade while missing relatively few games.

tbh, I'm sort of surprised he doesn't have more support. Prior to the start of this current season he:
*Had the 61st-highest career PER of all-time; this while avg >34 mpg in >1000 games.
**Was 61st all-time in career WS.
***Was 90th in career VORP.

And all of this with a decent impact profile (as noted above), while also nabbing SEVEN All-Star selections [in the tough West, too], FIVE All-NBA honors (3x 3rd, 2x 2nd), and THREE top-10 finishes in the MVP vote (for the people placing serious emphasis on media accolades).
More complete outline noted above in post #2.

Sure just seems like he ticks off more than enough of the necessary boxes for the mid-90s section of the list.



2nd vote: Chris Webber
Short(ish) prime, and certainly under-achieved his potential [though his potential was REALLY damn high]. He's still a very nice peak and top 2-3 years, with some useful years outside of that. An OK [and somewhat versatile] scorer, EXCELLENT passing big-man, very very good rebounder, good defender when engaged (though I'll freely acknowledge he was NOT consistently engaged).
Although he's an under-achiever [boy, this is a lukewarm endorsement!], I think he did enough in his career to warrant consideration here.


3rd vote: Zelmo Beaty
He's been name-dropped [not only be me, as of last thread]. I'm gonna start pushing for him.
The more I look at him, the more underrated he looks. Several really solid NBA season (seemed pretty reliable for around 18-21 pts and 11-14 reb on VERY good shooting efficiency basically all thru the mid-late 60s). What's more is he has a passable to decent defensive reputation (known as a pretty physical [almost "enforcer"-type??] defender).

Then he jumps into the ABA of the early-mid 70s (an ABA that had Rick Barry, Mel Daniels, and Dan Issel, plus Erving, Gilmore, and McGinnis by Zelmo's 2nd season), and he immediately looks like one of its very best players for those first two seasons. By his 3rd season in the ABA [now age 33], he declines to being merely fringe All-Star level.

I'll try to post a little more later, but he just looks like a very solid candidate.
Cheeks, Sikma, and Porter also very close here.

Have updated my list [for Condorcet purposes] to include ANYONE who has received votes of any kind, plus some others who are definitley on my radar:
LMA > Webber > Beaty > Cheeks > Lowry > Walker > DeBusschere > Hawkins > Bellamy > Johnston > D.Johnson > Walton > Tiny > Draymond > King > Heinsohn (may change the order on Walton/Tiny as we go along, but this is how I'm currently feeling).
Could also see bumping Hawkins ahead of DeBusschere +/- Walker. DeBusschere pops a little [visually] when I was doing the game log project, though. Admittedly not always in a good way [takes a lot of shots at questionable accuracy]; but holy crap was he active. Rebounds, deflections, assists, points, generally busting plays; and fwiw he was willing/capable of shooting from the outside, so there was at least a little spacing effect. He'd fit nice in the modern league (where era portability is important to anyone).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,017
And1: 21,969
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#4 » by Doctor MJ » Sat May 15, 2021 4:40 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Repeating vote.

Doctor MJ wrote:Alright...

1. Connie Hawkins
2. Bill Walton
3. Chris Mullin

Other preferences in order:

Spoiler:
Draymond Green
Zelmo Beaty
Mel Daniels
Bernard King
Tiny Archibald
Buck Williams
Dave DeBusschere
Dennis Johnson
Tom Heinsohn
Jerry Lucas
Walt Bellamy
Gus Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge


Hawk love letter:

I think there's never been anyone like him, before or since. I'm dying to see more footage of him, because honestly I think he's got a bunch of moves that we don't have names for.

The roots of Hawkins becoming what he became are a story not of some kind of inevitable success through sheer talent, but of a guy with great talent getting bounced around and picking up stuff as he went.

Hawkins was a star in each of the following places:
1. The Schoolyard
2. Golden Age NYC High School Basketball
3. ABL
4. Harlem Globetrotters
5. ABA
6. NBA

All 6 of these things are a big deal, though I'll note that I'd consider (1) and (4) the best for understanding how Hawkins became what he became where (5) and (6) represent the proof in the pudding.

To speak on (1), the thing to understand is that play in the school yard all day is what the "good" Black boys did in this era. You were either playing basketball, or you were getting involved in gangs, pimping, and eventually drugs. So if you had basketball talent, this is where your family wanted you. Stay on the court, where it's safe.

And from the perspective of these Black kids, when they played (white) kids from other places, they just always got the sense that those white kids were far less experienced, because they were doing a lot of things other than playing basketball.

So, while Hawkins was dominating the incredibly high quality ball of NYC back then too, the Schoolyard was always where he developed his game. Just trying different things.

Others noted that while Hawkins lacked confidence in general, and was a poor reader and a poor student, he was an extremely quick learner when he saw someone else do something on the basketball court. When an opponent did something with the ball against Hawkins, Hawkins seemed to instantly have a new tool.

It's also important to note that in the Schoolyard, Hawkins didn't start out as The Man. He learned to play by fitting in around others who were older and better. We're talking about a kid who was playing against NBA pros (in the NBA off-season) before he was a High School star, so when he was playing those games, he wasn't just going in as the star. He learned to fit in. He learned how to be an aware passer before he learned to be a scorer.

About (3), so as many of you know, Hawkins was banned from college due to point shaving scandal (he later won a lawsuit clearing his name), so he ended up getting an opportunity in Abe Saperstein's ABL, which had various former NBA pros and a 3-point line. In the lone full season of that league, Hawkins would win MVP.

This is obviously impressive for a guy basically straight out of high school - and speaks both to his talent and how much experience he'd already had beyond just playing against other high schoolers - but I'd also argue that if not for the existence of the ABL, there's a good chance Hawkins would have died on the vine. He didn't have any other great skills other than basketball, so most likely he'd have ended up like many of his other peers still in Brooklyn which was being taken over by a see of heroin.

But his performance in the ABL, led to an invitation to join Saperstein's flagship product: The Harlem Globetrotters.

And as fortune would have it, Sweetwater Clifton - former New York Ren, Globetrotters, NBA all-star - played in the ABL that year with Hawkins, and re-joined the Globetrotters at the same time as Hawkins. And he told Hawkins basically, "You don't realize what kind of things you can do with those big hands!"

He mentored Hawkins on the ways you can use your ability to easily palm a hand. More flexibility when driving, more ways to protect the ball when you're guarded, myriad tricky passes, and the ability to rebound with just one hand so you can use your other arm (ahem, elbow) to fend of opponents.

I've noted before that big hands seem to be a Harlem Globetrotter thing. Beginning with the team's first clown - Goose Tatum - along through Clifton, Meadowlark Lemon, along with Wilt Chamberlain, Hawkins, and others - the Globetrotters seemed to look for guys with big hands in a way that the NBA has literally never done. I've also seen it noted that a particular Globetrotter was held back by his hand size despite being naturally very comedic.

There's a kind of trickery you can do with hands like this that lends itself well to comedy through basketball actions, and this raises the question of whether these Globetrotters were much better at certain basketball skills than NBA players.

There the answer is yes with an asterisk. Most of the tricks the Globetrotters did, while they required great skill, were not designed to hold up against actual defenders, and this was a source of frustration for Hawkins who felt that he was becoming soft due to not playing in a real competitive league, which I'd say was true.

At the same time, he'd still go back to NYC and play in the Schoolyard testing out techniques. Basically, he mined stuff out from the Globetrotters, and the stuff he found could work against actual defenders, he made a part of his repertoire. And this is how he became truly unique.

As we look at Hawkins ABA & NBA years, one of the things to understand is that both when he joined Pittsburgh in the ABA and Phoenix in the NBA, the teams did not immediately re-shape their offenses around Hawkins, and between these ramp up times, Hawkins increasing tendency toward injury, and a tendency for Hawkins to get down on himself, when we look at his yearly stats, it has to be noted that there was far more variance over the course of the season in team and Hawkins-specific performance than you'd expect not simply as a modern observer, but as a contemporary observer. Hawkins wasn't the absolute rock that you'd expect from a Jerry West, and this certainly doesn't help his Top 100 case.

But what this context also means is that when you look at Hawkins' yearly stats those first few years, as impressive as they look, know that they underrate what he was doing at his best.

I've noted before that in his first year in the ABA, Hawkins led the league in PPG despite being 3rd on his team in FGA. He did this by also leading the league in TS%, and do so while also leading the team in APG, RPG, and almost certainly BPG & SPM had they had that data (but interestingly he did not lead his team in TOs, and was 11th on his team in terms of TOs per minute). To lead a team to the title like this is amazing, but it does give rise to the question: Why were other guys shooting more than Hawkins?

The answer seems to be that these guys were just flat out bad chuckers who the coach couldn't get to pass the ball even though he'd sometimes bench them just to ensure the ball went to Hawkins, but apparently the team couldn't get anyone better mid-season (neither would last that much longer in the ABA).

Now, I tend to read stuff that focuses on Hawkins' perspective rather than the perspective Chico Vaughn, so bias is a concern. But my conclusion is that even in a young ABA that wasn't what it would later become, the Pittsburgh Pipers had no business winning a title given the lack of team play. But what was the case is that when Hawkins played the pivot, the offense hummed with Hawkins both scoring incredibly well and passing incredibly well.

Hawkins suffered the defining injury of his career midway through his second ABA season, and most don't think he was ever as good again, yet still he ended up blowing away the NBA once he got going.

What precipitated him getting going? Mid-way through the season, Phoenix Suns GM Jerry Colangelo fired coach Red Kerr, took over as coach, and had the team play with Hawkins in the high post as the guy the offense would run through. Prior to that point, Hawkins had been positioned in the corner while team captain Gail Goodrich dribbled, dribbled, dribble, and then shot. Goodrich, it should be noted seems to have had a good attitude and was willing to play in an offense with Hawkins as the focus, but when left to his own devices, he tended to just iso.

A few more anecdotes in Hawkins first year in the NBA:

1. After the Suns beat the Celtics in Boston, Bill Russell - who had retired the previous year - came over and gushed "You can do things with the ball I've never seen before!". (Hawkins responded "If you'd have been out there, you'd have blocked half my shots". Russell then said "I don't think so".)

2. Hawkins drew rave reviews as the best passer in the league. Was he better than Oscar? I'm not prepared to say that, but what I can say is that Hawkins was doing things Oscar could not. One described play involved Hawkins having the ball in the high post and making two quick passing fakes in opposite directions (which he could do because had had the ball palmed), and then casually dribbling through the now open lane to the basket.

3. Another anecdote: Apparently Hawkins could dribble through press defense unaided. When a team pressed the Suns, they'd pass the ball to Hawkins, and get out of the way, while he dribbled his way through opponents. If this seems unrealistic for a player generally, I'd note that this skill was a major thing before the shot clock, and the team most famous for this ability was the Globetrotters back in their still-competitive days in the '40s. Against the Mikan-led Lakers, the Globetrotters famously gave the ball to master-dribbler Marques Haynes, and he dribbled what remained of the 4th quarter away so that his team could take the last shot.

While the shot clock rendered this specific ability moot, the Globetrotters used it as part of their act, and so this was something the Globetrotter players actually practiced, and Hawkins honed the ability there.

So I'd say the most amazing thing isn't that someone could do this, but that Hawkins at 6'8" could do this.

4. I'd note that Wilt said that Hawkins was the only guy in the world who could play "all three positions" - by which he meant guard, forward, and center.

I should also note that Hawkins's quickness and agility was tied to his lithe fame, so when Hawkins played center, he took a severe beating that made it hard for him to sustain that kind of play over a season.

I'll also note that Hawkins was a guy who got very little training in formal defense. With his long arms and quickness he could get blocks and steals, but he struggled beyond that.

5. Some people hated his "clown antics". Some refs in particular. I think this makes sense because the Globetrotters - while they may be clowns - spend their games making their opponents look like fools. What happens when you do that to someone who isn't paid to take it? Animosity.

6. Among players, Elvin Hayes in particular apparently expressed hostility toward Hawkins, and this led to a showdown in the very last game of the '69-70 season which Hawkin's Suns needed to make the playoffs. The Suns were down 19 points at half time, and in the second half Hawkins & Hayes matched up. Hawkins led the team back to a victory with a 44/20/8 night on 30 FGA, and was said to have had 5 blocks & 5 steals in the 3rd quarter alone. Multiple of those blocks came on Hayes who went for 23/18/2 on 25 FGA.

7. In the playoffs, the Suns would fight hard before losing in 7 to the West/Wilt led Lakers, with some making the comment that it was essentially "the Lakers vs Connie Hawkins".

After that year, Hawkins would still have great runs, but injuries took more of a toll. The general feeling was that his body was much older than his age suggested having played 250 Globetrotter games per year while others his age were playing 25 college games per year, to say nothing about all that time on the Schoolyard.

In the end, with Hawkins, I think it's very hard to know how to rank him and so I completely understand those who won't have him in the Top 100. More than anything else, I hope others can just appreciate how singular he was, and how significant on a level beyond simple career impact.

But I do think he warrants a place above Bill Walton, who is my #3 pick here. Love, love, love Walton, but as much as Hawkins had longevity issues, I'd say Walton had them worse, and I'm not comfortable saying that Walton was clearly the better player best vs best. I think Walton was amazing like this, and he certainly has the defensive edge overall, but in some ways I feel like you could look at Walton on offense as a poor man's Hawkins.

Part of what I'm saying here is that I believe that the pivot-and-cut offense that Jack Ramsay instituted for Walton in Portland is not some completely new thing, but rather something that was huge and never really made it to the NBA. Once the basketball world saw Mikan & Kurland, pivot-and-cut passing didn't seem as useful as just pass to low post and score. And when that paradigm got challenged, it got challenged by perimeter-oriented offenses that in today's game are dominant.

I would submit that we've never really seen the potential for a pivot-and-cut offense in the modern NBA until Nikola Jokic, and I might make a comparison between Jokic & Hawkins. And on that front, note that I have Jokic below Walton. Through the end of last season, I didn't think Jokic had done enough to surpass Walton, but with this season, well, things are changing.

I will note, with regards to context, I consider Jokic to be more of "random genius" than Hawkins. I think Hawkins became what he did because he was shaped by unique context and had specific, rare physical gifts. Jokic seems like he was born like this.

Alright, beyond Hawk I've got Walton & Jokic on my ballot.

So first, what that means is that I'm clearly right now siding on peak/prime over longevity relative to some other folks. As I always say, I'm not going to tell you that your longevity weighting is wrong - I think that's up to personal philosophy.

I will say on Walton I've had him all over my ballots through the years and really don't know where to put him...but I do think that he deserves to be higher than Jokic through '19-20. I understand that you can argue that Jokic should win based on a longevity edge, but Jokic is obviously weak there as well, and Walton being a key part of a championship team 7 years after the first really cements that indelible impression I have of him.

If you just think Jokic through last year was better than Walton, I get that, but I'd not feel comfortable saying that because Walton was the best defender on the planet.

On Jokic over other guys, the first guy I want to mention is someone I've not even been listing out because he hasn't had traction: Draymond Green. When I look at current players not in, those two are the next ones on my list and to be honest I expected to have Green ahead of Jokic.

If I felt strongly about Green over Jokic, I'd be arguing for that now, but I'm not. I can see arguments both ways, but Green really doesn't have much of a longevity edge, and as special as Green was at his best, I do think Jokic was more special by a smidge even before this year.

On Tiny Archibald - I'm really convinced at this point that he was an absolute killer at his best. He feels like he should be easily a Top 100 guy for me, and I rank him above some guys already on the list, but obviously there are still guys left out there that I like even better.

Since Porter almost got in is that I actually would put Buck Williams over Porter. Porter's greater if you factor in just their Blazer career, but Buck's work on the Nets is big too, so I'm slotting Buck in.

Also, it's bugging me that Chris Mullin isn't being given more love. I think it's worth reiterating that he wasn't a "fringe Dream Teamer". He was more of a lock than Barkley, and his minutes played in the Olympics speaks to this. Basically he had a role with some similarities to what what Miller/Allen/Curry would later have, and which is still tremendously underrated today imho.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,823
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#5 » by HeartBreakKid » Sat May 15, 2021 4:45 am

Criteria

Spoiler:
I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health of their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2) Elton Brand. Brand was a consistent 20/10 guy for 8 seasons with decent passing and legit shot creation. He was also a good defender, perhaps not as good as his shot blocks suggest - and likely over shadowed cause his prime coincided with some freak defenders at PF like Garnett, Duncan and to a lesser extend Rasheed Wallace. However, for the longevity heads who like to add the value of players careers, I feel like 8 seasons of 20/10/2.5/2 is pretty damn hard to beat at this point. Not to mention the guy had a great peak, maybe not Bill Walton good but he was a 25 PPG and 2.5 BPG player at his peak, this is at a time when scoring wasn't easy either. He only has a sample size of one playoff run in his prime, and in that run he nearly made the Western Conference finals and he was incredible in both series against Denver and Phoenix.

3) Draymond Green. Decided to bump him in over Mel Daniels, Beaty and Butler. I feel like his defense is just on another tier from most of the other DPOY guys left (including Daniels). On top of that, he can also scale up his defense in the playoffs, Bill Russell style. His playmaking is really legitimately great. He makes fast decisions with the ball and can accurately hit cutters - he's not just a drive and kick to Steph Curry kind of guy. Draymond on the fast break is a real joy to watch, and his offensive impact is very underrated even during his "bad" years. No doubt his scoring is pretty much non existent, but in his peak he could at least hit a 3 pointer which is nice. Almost put Mullin above him.




Names in bold are new additions to my list.



Mullin> Butler > P Hardaway > Beaty > Hawkins > King > Webber > Dennis Johnson > Ramsey > Lowry > Sikma > Archibald > Aldridge > Lucas > Heinsohn > Bellamy > Johnston > DeBusschere > Dandr
Dutchball97
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,406
And1: 5,001
Joined: Mar 28, 2020
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#6 » by Dutchball97 » Sat May 15, 2021 10:18 am

1. Draymond Green - Looking at just his regular season numbers I'd expect to see him near the bottom of my list but the part he played in the Warriors dynasty is severely underrated. Dray has been both the primary playmaker and the defensive anchor for the Warriors for a long time now. Where Draymond really shines is the play-offs though. I'm not sure if anyone is aware but in his 7 post-seasons Dray has never had a DBPM below 3. DBPM isn't a perfect stat but it generally gives a decent indication of a player's defense and Dray has been elite in it every single year. Draymond was a massive part of getting the Warriors to 5 straight finals, accumulating 2+ WS and 1+ VORP in all of those campaigns.

2. Anfernee Hardaway - Penny has a pretty short prime but it's more of a Grant Hill case where they still have high level seasons after their major injuries instead of a Bill Walton or Connie Hawkins who really fell off quick. Penny's peak in 1996 overall was very strong and despite losing to the Heat in the first round the next year, he was clearly the best player in that series. He also pretty much always showed up in the play-offs. When he was 30 he was pretty much done though and was an average player at best in the regular season but even then he showed up strong in the 03 and 04 play-offs when he was 31 and 32 respectively. He's a fringe top 100 guy who will likely just miss the cut due to questionable longevity but I think it's nevertheless worth it to give him his due here.

3. Jimmy Butler - Butler already has a pretty impressive career. 6 seasons of a very solid prime and a pretty strong peak in 2017. I expect Butler to be a no brainer for the 2023 list as his current season might just be his best yet. Butler has also had 3 strong play-off runs. The first in 2015 with the Bulls and then the last two years with the 76ers and the Heat respectively. Butler's leadership and effort also isn't something to discount.

Zelmo Beaty > Paul George > Kyle Lowry > Marques Johnson > Jerry Lucas > Neil Johnston > Walt Bellamy > Chris Webber > Bill Sharman > Bob Dandridge > Maurice Cheeks > Frank Ramsey > Elton Brand > Chris Mullin > Andrei Kirilenko > Eddie Jones > LaMarcus Aldridge > Bernard King > Bill Walton > Connie Hawkins > Dennis Johnson > Tom Heinsohn > Dave DeBusschere > Tiny Archibald
sansterre
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,312
And1: 1,816
Joined: Oct 22, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#7 » by sansterre » Sat May 15, 2021 10:34 am

#1. Draymond Green - Draymond is a weird player to evaluate. Normally I'm big on longevity and Draymond is still playing. But his peak (by certain metrics) was crazy. He's an insane ceiling raiser, like Ben Wallace but better. And unlike the Ben Wallace argument "Yeah, but having him kills your offense" you really can't argue that for Draymond. Because he was on a lot of extremely strong offenses. He wasn't a great scorer by a long shot, but he was an outstanding passer. A lot of people don't realize that Draymond often averaged more Assists/100 than Curry did (the two were neck and neck during their peak years). So despite not being a good scorer (and he was okay, averaging around league average shooting on high teens usage) he actually tended toward being a net positive on offense from all the impact data we have. And his ability to play a hyper-aware long-armed center in a lineup of all athletic wings (and Curry) transformed the Warriors. I'm not making any argument that Green is as valuable to the Warriors as Curry was. But his AuRPM numbers actually come out looking really close to Curry, and in 2017 were above Durant in both AuRPM and RAPM.

The Warriors from 2015 to 2018 were four of the best teams ever and every impact metric we have suggests that Draymond was a very close 2nd in value on three of them. Unlike shot-blocking bigs like Embiid and Gobert, Draymond's defensive value tends to go up in the playoffs. Because smart switchability is a serious asset in playoff defense and Draymond has that as well as anyone.

Do I have him too high here? Maybe. His 2016 PIPM kind of broke my metric. But the impact metrics scream that he was one of the most valuable players in the league during his peak.

Was he a crap floor-raiser? Definitely. And if you like floor-raisers or wins-added, then Draymond is probably far lower on your list.

But we have to make our peace with the fact that he may have been one of the greatest ceiling-raisers ever. And there's some serious value there. From a CORP point of view, he has a pretty respectable argument.

#2. Kyle Lowry - This may seem incongruous, but Kyle Lowry has some pretty strong selling points. His career has actually been quietly impressive. He's got four different 10+ Win Share seasons and over 30k career minutes. He's got four seasons above 4.5 VORP. Did you know that of all active NBA players he's currently 11th in Win Shares and VORP? These are respectably impressive stats. But would you believe that Kyle Lowry's impact metrics are outstanding? He put up a +4.5 AuRPM in 2014, a +4.6 AuRPM in 2015, a +6.5 in 2016 (10th in the league) and a +6.3 in 2017 (6th). His RAPM in 2018 (including playoffs) was 6th in the league (ESPN's RPM has him #1), ESPN's RPM has him 5th in 2019 and it has him 6th in 2020. By Impact metrics, Kyle Lowry's been a Top 10 player in the league for the past five years.

How is this possible? After all, Lowry is a good offensive player but not great. He's pretty consistently in the low 20s for usage and his shooting was only around +3 or +4 in his five-year peak. How good can he be? But he's also a weirdly quality rebounder. Kyle Lowry may be the best rebounding six footer ever (not a huge claim to fame, but still). He has eight different seasons at 7% TRB or higher, while no other six footer has more than 4. You could argue that he's a rebound-chaser, but his impact metrics suggest that isn't the case. He's a strong floor spacer (half his shots are threes and he made them at 38% over the last ten seasons) and a strong passer (passer ratings at 6.5 or higher from Ben Taylor). I won't argue that he has the offensive impact of a Lillard (though he surely has more longevity). But unlike Lillard, Lowry is a strong defender, generally considered an underrated team defender with a knack for drawing charges. And if he's an actual plus on defense (as most metrics consider him) that means he doesn't need to be as good on offense for the same level of impact.

Has he struggled in the playoffs historically? Yes. But no more than Lillard has, and Dame has been getting a fair amount of love in these votes. And recently Lowry has turned it around in the postseason, posting the 4th best RAPTOR-WAR in the '19 playoffs (+6.6 average) and 5th best in the '20 playoffs (+9.3).

Like Porter, like a lot of guys I champion, he's not super-sexy. But he's had a long career and a strong peak. Instead of being an all-offense chucker he's good at everything, and was a key piece in leading the Raptors to their first ever NBA title. Maybe he deserves some love too. :)

#3. Walt Bellamy - If ever a player was optimized to show up well in the limited stats we have from the first two decades of the league, Walt Bellamy is it. His Win Share CORP absolutely blows everyone else out of the water. He put up seven different 10+ Win Share seasons, including a 16 WS rookie year (where he was 2nd in the league). Like Bob McAdoo and Tiny Archibald he hit the league hard, put up a lot of great seasons, but peaked early and was regressing hard by the time he approached his late 20s/early 30s. Bellamy was a monster scorer, perhaps the best scoring big of the 60s besides . . . some guy I can't remember. Bellamy routinely took 25+% of his shots and made them in the +6% to +8% range, which is really good (especially for the 60s). He was also a strong rebounder (not great). Detractors would argue that he didn't really port his performance into the playoffs well, that he wasn't often a motivated defender and that the Knicks took off once they traded him. As to the first two points that's fair, but I don't agree with the last one. Bellamy was built to be a floor-raiser, a guy who could take a lot of shots (and make them well) no matter what the defense did to stop him. But the Knicks had Clyde Frazier *and* Willis Reed *and* Cazzie Russell. They didn't need a floor-raising scorer, they needed a ceiling-raising defender and they got a great one in Dave DeBusschere (incidentally, the change in the Knicks as a result of the Bellamy -> DeBusschere swap is literally the perfect example of the flaws in the "first option uber alles" philosophy of player evaluation. Bellamy had a long career (for that era), during which he put up Top 6 numbers in points five times. A lot of his other metrics aren't great; his WOWYR is low, his playoff metrics aren't great (of course, he didn't make the playoffs at his peak) and the BackPicks BPM doesn't like him much. But his Win Shares are fantastic. Again, he's like Tiny/McAdoo if their peaks had gone way longer. He's not the kind of player I normally like, but the sheer weight of his scoring and performance on weaker teams merits consideration.

D.Green > Kyle Lowry > Bellamy > Eddie Jones > Z.Beaty > A.Kirilenko > M.Cheeks > S.Kemp > Laimbeer > B.Walton > P.George > LaMarcus Aldridge > Webber > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > Lucas > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere > J.Butler > M. Johnson > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > Heinsohn > K.Thompson > Archibald
"If you wish to see the truth, hold no opinions."

"Trust one who seeks the truth. Doubt one who claims to have found the truth."
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,139
And1: 9,757
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#8 » by penbeast0 » Sat May 15, 2021 10:40 am

1. Draymond Green -- maybe he has been in the prefect situation, maybe he's really that impactful, but you can't choose your situation, just make the best of what you are presented with and he definitely has done that. Sort of this generation's Dennis Rodman.

2. Bob Dandridge -- similarly, a versatile very good 3rd option who could score if needed, play good defense and swing to the 4 (Milwaukee) or 2 (Washington).

3. Chris Webber-- Hard to believe it but I'm holding my nose and voting for Chris Webber. Hated him as a supertalented but whiny player in Washington, then he went on to more success in Sacramento though continuing his history of choking in big moments. I'd love to vote for almost anyone else but he's probably the best choice left.


Walt Bellamy
Zelmo Beaty
Maurice Cheeks
Dennis Johnson
Mookie Blaylock
Connie Hawkins
Chris Mullin -- smart pure shooter, lead footed wing defender
LaMarcus Aldridge -- long consistent career
Elton Brand -- shorter career, though it peaked higher than Aldridge, lot of bad teams around him
Marques Johnson -- peaked higher than King, shorter career, substance abuse issues
Bernard King -- a couple of great playoff performances, reasonably efficient scorer but brings little else and had substance abuse issues.
Tiny Archibald -- Amazing for a couple of years on Kings, like Isiaih Thomas that year in Boston, but with his lack of defense and the way his scoring game worked, can't really see him as a key ceiling raiser piece.
Dave DeBusschere -- excellent defender, not a long career, poor shooter relative to league
Bill Walton -- 1 and a half years is not enough
David Thompson -- Another skywalker, great scorer, but career destroyed by cocaine
Gus Williams -- inefficient volume scorer without great career length
Tommy Heinsohn -- inefficient volume scorer, not impressed with his defense, not a good passer, I don't think he makes my top 8 players who played with Russell much less my top 100 (S. Jones, Havlicek, Sharman, Howell, KC Jones, Cousy, Ramsey, Sanders. . . Jim Loscutoff? Larry Siegfried?).

GUARDS
Dennis Johnson, Mookie Blaylock, Maurice Cheeks, Nate Archibald

Cheeks (low volume) and Archibald (high volume) are the only ones with significantly positive efficiency, with the other three down below league average during their 5 year primes. DJ has the big rep, both on defense and in awards, Mookie also had a great defensive rep and was ahead of his time shooting low percentage from 2 but a lot of 3's, Cheeks is another very good defender. Cheeks and Blaylock generated assists like point guards, DJ didn't. Tiny is the best floor raiser but probably the worst ceiling raiser which I tend to value more.

I rate them:
1. Cheeks -- good defense, leadership, efficient scoring though at low volume, I have to say I'd rather have him as my PG than any of the others except in unusual situations and I don't see DJ as a good enough shooting guard for his ability to guard wings to rate him higher.
2a. DJ -- tempted to go Mookie here but DJ's versatility on the defensive end (and face it, if they are getting any traction it's on their defense) give him the edge despite Mookie's playmaking and range (tempted AGAIN to switch this!)
2b. Blaylock -- spread the floor and played great defense, very modern player. Got assists but not a great creator, scored nearly as much as DJ but no more efficient despite his 3 point range.
4. Nate Archibald -- Isiaih in Boston showed you can compete with a Tiny type PG as the main man, though it's hard. He did show a willingness to sacrifice his personal game for team goals when he went to Boston and his peers rated him highly there.


WINGS
Draymond Green really plays like a 3/4 type, just the system uses him at the 4 and 5 but these are more his peers. Same for DeBusschere who even played some 2 in Detroit. These are the two best defenders, Green the most impactful AND the best playmaker which moves him to the top of these rankings. DeBusschere's shooting is just too ugly to compete at this level despite his rep. Dandridge is the most versatile of the rest, playing 4 in Milwaukee and 2 in Washington as well as the 3. He is an all-defense candidate, which none of the rest can claim while also an excellent 3rd, passible second option scorer on decent efficiency. He did whine in Milwaukee but was a class pro after that in Washington. Marques Johnson, Bernard King, and Chris Mullin all had some strong offensive years, Marques was the only one not a weak defender but also the shortest career of the 3. All efficient volume scorers, none played that long, King had some nice playoff runs. Both Marques Johnson and Bernard King had substance abuse issues and Chris Mullin had one of the ugliest haircuts ever seen outside of boot camp. Close between the 3. Connie Hawkins and David Thompson both would easily have been top 100 player but for injuries (Hawk) and drugs (skywalker).

BIG MEN
Walt Bellamy was a true 1960 (and 70s) center. Good scorer, not a particularly good defender or passer, had a MONSTER rookie year on a super weak expansion team (in the league's most inflated year) then declined from that point on. A rep as being annoying in the locker room and showing up overweight. By the numbers, he's clearly the choice.

Webber or Brand. Webber and Brand decent rim protectors; Webber a good (some say great) big man passers. Efficiency, Brand was decent, Webber below average; Webber the volume scorer, then Brand. Walton just didn't have enough peak seasons.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
Clyde Frazier
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 20,212
And1: 26,083
Joined: Sep 07, 2010

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#9 » by Clyde Frazier » Sat May 15, 2021 1:05 pm

Vote 1 - Bernard King
Vote 2 - Chris Webber
Vote 3 - Tiny Archibald

DeBusschere > Bellamy > Beaty > Mullin > Jerry Lucas > Dandridge > Aldridge > Lowry > Dennis Johnson > Hawkins > Johnston > Draymond > Walton > Heinsohn


At his peak, king was one of the most dynamic scorers the league had seen. He was more methodical than flashy, but he knew what he was good at and kept going to it. His turnaround jumper was so lethal that he didn't even have to look at the hoop when releasing the shot. It was all in 1 quick motion where the defender really had no chance to block it. He was also very bull-like in the open court. Not a high leaper, but extremely powerful with long strides getting to the rim.

From 79-85 he put up the following:

Regular Season
23.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, .3 BPG, 55.1% FG, 70.1% FT, 58.7% TS, .153 WS/48, 111 ORtg

Playoffs
30.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1 SPG, .3 BPG, 56.8% FG, 72% FT, 60.9% TS, .213 WS/48, 122 ORtg

His prime was obviously cut short by injuries, but he still put together 11 seasons of solid production when it was all said and done. When he tore his ACL, his career was largely thought to be over given the era he played in. He went on to make an improbable comeback which culminated with him getting back to All NBA status in 90-91 with the bullets. I've alluded to this with other players in the project, but the amount of determination it takes to come back from major injuries and still perform at a high level is really impressive.

[As an aside, the Knicks stupidly released him because he wanted to do his rehab on his own instead of at the knicks training facility. Always would've loved to see even a lesser version of King get to play with Ewing. Could've been a great match.]

He was probably best known for his 1st round game 5 clincher against the pistons in 84:

In a critical and decisive Game 5, Bernard King was his usual unstoppable self putting up 40 points as the Knicks held a double-digit lead with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Then Thomas decided to take things into his own hands by putting on a performance of epic proportions, tallying 16 points within the game’s final 94 seconds, to force overtime. King and Thomas exchanged offensive blows like a heavyweight title fight, with King getting the final blow by jamming an offensive put-back in the games final moments, giving him a game high 46 points and the Knicks a 3-2 series win. King showed a national audience that he would become one of the game’s most prolific scoring machines before injuries robbed him of his explosiveness. Game 5 was also arguably the moment that put a young “Zeke” on par with the NBA’s elite.



http://www.theshadowleague.com/articles/the-epic-battle-of-bernard-king-vs-isiah-thomas

Notice the splints on both of King's hands...



The Knicks would go on to lose to the eventual NBA champion celtics in 7 games, as he played through injuries and still averaged 29.1 PPG on 59.7% TS in the series. The guy was just relentless.

"The key was his preparation," said former Knicks coach and ESPN analyst Hubie Brown.

Part of that preparation included practicing thousands of shots from what King called his "sweet spots." In the half court, he identified three points along the baseline out to the sideline, then extended an imaginary line from a halfway point up the lane to the sideline with three more, then three more extended from the foul line to the sideline. He did the same on the other side of the lane.

Within the lane he identified four spots from the rim to the top of the key. These 22 spots, all within 18 feet of the basket, created a matrix of areas from which he felt supremely confident he could score. If a team tried to deny him the ball on offense, he would move from one sweet spot to another.

"He had the ability to see what all five positions were doing. That's how he could handle double- and triple-teams, because he knew where everyone would be," Brown said. "He knew how to create space for the high-percentage shot or find the guy who was open."


http://espn.go.com/nba/halloffame13/story/_/id/9653879/bernard-king-ahead
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,551
And1: 8,180
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Sun May 16, 2021 3:13 pm

Thru post #9:

Draymond Green - 3 (Dutchball97, penbeast0, sansterre)
LaMarcus Aldridge - 1 (trex_8063)
Connie Hawkins - 1 (Doctor MJ)
Bernard King - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)


~12(ish) hours left for this one.


Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DCasey91 wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,551
And1: 8,180
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Sun May 16, 2021 5:38 pm

Nobody going to respond to post #2?
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Dutchball97
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,406
And1: 5,001
Joined: Mar 28, 2020
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#12 » by Dutchball97 » Sun May 16, 2021 6:15 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Nobody going to respond to post #2?


I just don't think LMA achieved enough in the post-season. Can any of his Portland post-seasons even be called good? I can see why a longevity based argument can be made for him but when there are so many more impressive primes still out there I'd like to at least see that consistent regular season impact continue in the play-offs.
sansterre
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,312
And1: 1,816
Joined: Oct 22, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#13 » by sansterre » Sun May 16, 2021 7:11 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Nobody going to respond to post #2?

I really like Aldridge. He's fairly high for me. The problem is that his stats seemed to drop a bit in the postseason. Turn him into an above-average playoff-resilient performer and suddenly he'd be in my top 3 right now. If I were only doing regular season stuff he'd *definitely* be top 3.
"If you wish to see the truth, hold no opinions."

"Trust one who seeks the truth. Doubt one who claims to have found the truth."
Owly
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,614
And1: 3,132
Joined: Mar 12, 2010

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#14 » by Owly » Sun May 16, 2021 8:11 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Nobody going to respond to post #2?

Well what do you want? Everyone has their own process, people aren't generally out to argue against others.

But I'll say at the margins ...

All-NBA appearances with no weighting is going to be a bit generous to a never first-teamer.

The VORP number probably pro-rates as not in yet accounting for eras not included and fwiw, otoh BPM might skew anti good players for 73-84. I haven't looked under the hood much but I think one of the virtues for it is game level inputs back to '85, so players aren't hurt for poor team play in their absence. High impact stars in the earlier era would be though. At least that's my guess.

Total WS might, I would guess, marginally overrate him versus some candidates, if he is, as I'd guess, higher end minutes than some candidates, due to its very low baseline.

Millsap I believe isn't in nor on your condorcet list (so a slightly odd bar no?). Sikma barely so (and a very tight field now). And for most this isn't a peaks project.

I would guess he's riding some strong priors (or very unlucky with lineups) if he's got three or four "very solid" additional RAPM years. His on off is only more than marginally above 0 in two ('15, '18).

Blaylock and Schrempf have higher 97-14 RAPMs with largely outside of prime samples and might warrant mention as competition (Blake could be discussed too, though minutes hurt) from that data.

His WS/48 and on-off numbers collapse in the playoffs (though the other box composites hold up better). On-off is noisy at all times and moreso in the playoffs with small off samples, uneven off samples etc.


The above are nit picks though, coming only since you asked for a response. That 97-14 number surprised me the first time I saw it and moved me up on him.

And your case (whilst I might tweak it at the margins) outlines why he is a serious contender here.
User avatar
Odinn21
Analyst
Posts: 3,514
And1: 2,942
Joined: May 19, 2019
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#15 » by Odinn21 » Sun May 16, 2021 8:23 pm

98. Walt Bellamy
His prime has some inconsistencies but he had a career trajectory of a ‘00s player in the ‘60s with good quality. It’s all there for him.
(In terms of first few seasons, Bellamy and Hawkins are pretty similar but curious about why Hawkins should be a better candidate than Bellamy, Cunningham, Issel with their entire careers. It’s arguable that Hawkins peaked higher to begin with...)

99. Bernard King
Arguably the best peak among the big scoring wings of the '80s (Gervin, Dantley, English and Wilkins). Even after the injuries he was still a good impact ended up with nearly 20k career point.
I know my list is quite harsh on Bill Walton and Connie Hawkins who do not have much to show for outside of their top 3 or 4 seasons. But King is not like them to me. If anything, King is like a more impactful Carmelo Anthony IMO.

100. Shawn Kemp
Changed voted. I had Hagan initially but Kemp's prime was good enough and lasted long enough to be in here. 18/10/2 player for a decade with good defense, insane athleticism and great postseason resilience.

D. DeBusschere > B. Dandridge > C. Mullin > J. Butler > C. Webber > K. Lowry > L. Aldridge > D. Green > Z. Beaty > E. Brand > C. Hawkins > B. Walton > Anfernee Hardaway > N. Archibald > N. Johnston > D. Johnson > T. Heinsohn > F. Ramsey > M. Daniels
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
User avatar
ZeppelinPage
Head Coach
Posts: 6,418
And1: 3,386
Joined: Jun 26, 2008
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#16 » by ZeppelinPage » Sun May 16, 2021 8:28 pm

1. Tom Heinsohn
Heinsohn was an incredibly talented, well-rounded player. He joined Holy Cross in '54 and they immediately jumped in points scored and allowed while going 26-2. By his senior year, Holy Cross ranked 33rd in offense and 23rd on defense nationally. When Heinsohn left, they fell to 153rd of 160 teams in points allowed with an 11-12 record.

The '56 Celtics were a middle of the pack team that struggled to play defense and rebound. Auerbach was a tough coach that got the most out of his players (he helped turn Cousy into a good defender), but his team had never obtained the consistent rebounder vitally needed for the era. At one point, Bob Cousy mentioned how badly the Celtics needed a rebounder to give the rest of the players a break, as they were busy trying to gather rebounds together, with Ed Macauley unable to control the boards himself--this tired them out during playoff time. Enter Heinsohn: a switchable shooter with offensive and defensive skills while being, most importantly, a relentless rebounder.

With Auerbach's coaching, Heinsohn was quick to learn the energy needed at the professional level. Before the season, Auerbach mentioned that Heinsohn had been watching Cousy "break his neck" on defense, and that this would help him understand what was needed from him. He learned quick. The Celtics started out 14-4 with Sharman healthy, easily the best team in the league and on pace for 56 wins--finishing 17-8 before Russell joined, going 3-4 without Sharman. They allowed 99 points a game during this stretch and held the #1 offense Philadelphia Warriors to 83 and 78 points in the middle of a 10-game win streak. Auerbach seemed to be using his press defense more than ever with Heinsohn added to the roster, allowing for small ball line-ups where the guards could harass players up the court without a loss in rebounding.

The biggest additions to the team at the beginning of the season were Heinsohn, Andy Phillip, and Lou Tsioropoulos. Now obviously the sudden shift in the Celtics from treadmill to championship contender is not entirely due to Heinsohn. Andy Phillip was a good all-around ball player, and no doubt improved their defense with his stealing and deflection ability (he had a 6 steal game early in the season). Tsioropoulos was also getting quite a bit of praise for how hard he played.

But Heinsohn was the key piece. A player that solved their rebounding issues, a threat on offense with his shooting, driving, and passing ability; a player with high energy that could switch, play for steals and get deflections off-ball--while having the athleticism to contest a variety of shots. He played a pivotal role in turning a previously middling team into a powehouse, that had other teams actively complaining about the talent level of their roster early in the season (without Russell and Ramsey too). By the time the Finals rolled around, Heinsohn was leading the Celtics in scoring as a rookie against the Pettit led Hawks, closing game 7 with a 37 point game on 17-33 shooting, one of the greatest rookie performances in NBA history. All while helping to keep Pettit below his average efficiency. Heinsohn could score when his team needed him most--always playing steady, but exploding for a boost when the team needed him during a critical moment.

Biggest strengths are his defense, rebounding, and gravity. Defensively, Heinsohn was among the very best of the Celtics. In Auerbach's book Basketball for The Player, The Fan, And The Coach--he lists Heinsohn as one of the great defensive cornermen, and for good reason. On top of being a relentless rebounder, he actively played for the ball and used his hands to poke, strip, and deflect. He could switch 1 through 4 with ease and play tough man-to-man defense, often contesting shots and getting blocks on players like Jerry West.

He didn't have all-time efficiency, but his high volume and tough shot making allowed for floor spacing that was beneficial to his teammates. Heinsohn shot a significant amount of jump shots that were difficult and this hurt his efficiency, with that being said he was also a threat to the defense as he could score when left open. With Russell on the Celtics, there was less spacing and more emphasis on making jump shots. The bulk of the jump shooting was often left to guys like Cousy, Sharman, Havlicek, Heinsohn, and Sam Jones. Sharman and Jones were plus with their shooting ability, but the rest of the main offensive options suffered efficiency wise due to being the only ones that could take and make these difficult shots. With less spacing, it was harder to drive to the hoop as well as get to the line. Heinsohn could score when needed, having multiple playoff runs that were significant to their championships, and arguably could have won 2 Finals MVPs. Overall, I value his ability to be a threat on top of the defense he brings--he could even set up his teammates with good passes.

G6 '63 NBA Finals Heinsohn steal on Jerry West in a 2-point game with 2 minutes remaining
Spoiler:
Image

Heinsohn Defensive Sequence
Spoiler:
Image

Steal on Wilt Chamberlain
Spoiler:
Image

Strips on Rudy LaRusso and Guy Rodgers
Spoiler:
Image

Spoiler:
Image

Blocks on Jerry West
Spoiler:
Image

Spoiler:
Image

Passes in Game 2 '57 Finals
Spoiler:
Image

Spoiler:
Image

2. Frank Ramsey
Led the league in WS/48 during the regular season ('58) and playoffs ('57, '59) on ridiculous shooting percentages (+10 relTS% on 17.5 FGA in '59 playoffs, are you kidding me?) As the 6th man, he didn't have the highest volume, but he was still incredibly efficient whether he was in a smaller role or needed to take more shots come playoff time. Defensively, Ramsey was fantastic--lightning quick, playing passing lanes, deflecting and swiping at the ball, and staying with his man off-ball. In the G6 '63 Finals footage, Ramsey has 2 steals and multiple deflections, all while giving up zero baskets man to man. I think his clutch play, efficient scoring, and defensive ability all more than make up for his lack of volume. Definitely one of the greatest 6th men of all-time.

3. Jimmy Butler
Strong two-way impact, low turnover percentage with high assists, advanced and plus/minus stats are all good across the board. Had one of the greatest NBA Finals of all-time statistically last season. One of only 3 players to record a 40+ point triple double in the NBA Finals. Along with his high free throw rate, Butler has a good mix of volume, passing, and defense that I think a lot of other players don't have.

Walton > D Green > Webber > DeBusschere > Lowry > Lucas > Johnston > Bellamy > Beaty > King > Sikma > Dandridge > Hawkins > Archibald > Dennis Johnson > Aldridge
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,823
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#17 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun May 16, 2021 8:34 pm

Odinn21 wrote:98. Walt Bellamy
His prime has some inconsistencies but he had a career trajectory of a ‘00s player in the ‘60s with good quality. It’s all there for him.
(In terms of first few seasons, Bellamy and Hawkins are pretty similar but curious about why Hawkins should be a better candidate than Bellamy, Cunningham, Issel with their entire careers. It’s arguable that Hawkins peaked higher to begin with...)

99. Bernard King
Arguably the best peak among the big scoring wings of the '80s (Gervin, Dantley, English and Wilkins). Even after the injuries he was still a good impact ended up with nearly 20k career point.
I know my list is quite harsh on Bill Walton and Connie Hawkins who do not have much to show for outside of their top 3 or 4 seasons. But King is not like them to me. If anything, King is like a more impactful Carmelo Anthony IMO.

100. Cliff Hagan
I think not having in the top 100 would be a bit inconsistent considering how we valued performance and quality over the average when we discussed about Mikan, Pettit, Cousy, etc. And we should have Hagan in there with the same mentality. He was in an 1a/1b situation with Pettit. Performed great.

D. DeBusschere > J. Worthy > B. Dandridge > C. Mullin > J. Butler > C. Webber > N. Jokic > > K. Lowry > L. Aldridge > D. Green > Z. Beaty > E. Brand > C. Hawkins > B. Walton > Anfernee Hardaway > N. Archibald > N. Johnston > D. Johnson > T. Heinsohn > F. Ramsey > M. Daniels

I didn't say anything in previous threads because I figured it was just typos but Cliff Hagan got in several threads ago. Jokic and Worthy are also on the top 100.
User avatar
Odinn21
Analyst
Posts: 3,514
And1: 2,942
Joined: May 19, 2019
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#18 » by Odinn21 » Sun May 16, 2021 8:39 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:I didn't say anything in previous threads because I figured it was just typos but Cliff Hagan got in several threads ago. Jokic and Worthy are also on the top 100.

It's been basically copy paste for a few threads and forgot to remove him from my condorcet choices. Updated accordingly. Thanks.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,139
And1: 9,757
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#19 » by penbeast0 » Mon May 17, 2021 12:22 am

trex_8063 wrote:Nobody going to respond to post #2?


LMA is in that category with guys like Jack Sikma, Jeff Hornacek, etc. in terms of players we have voted for -- good player who never was great. He's in the mix here but not near the top of it for me and for guys who prioritize peak, he's not even in the mix.

Compare to Chris Webber, Walt Bellamy, Bailey Howell (better than Heinsohn!) or Elton Brand types and it's a matter of what you prioritize and how much you liked them.

Personally, I'm all alone on an island with Bobby Dandridge . . . very good defender, above average scorer on above average efficiency, versatile, and a key part of two completely different NBA champions (3rd best player on both pretty clearly). Just a lot of guys now with cases like theirs and not a ton of clear separation.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
prolific passer
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,148
And1: 1,459
Joined: Mar 11, 2009
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #98 

Post#20 » by prolific passer » Mon May 17, 2021 1:26 am

Well we have Porter, Hornacek, and Horace Grant on it over some HOFers and some other big name stars. So why not LMA?
Dandridge is so unlucky. Playing with Kareem and Oscar on the 71 Bucks and Hayes and Unseld on a very forgettable 78 Bullets title squad. Great 3rd guy for a roster none the less.

Return to Player Comparisons