Race for Ping Pong Balls

drsd · Post #1301 » by **drsd** » Mon May 17, 2021 1:23 pm

Message Boar wrote:All in all I'm satisfied with the result of the tank. A win or two less would've been cool, sure, but you can't have it all. Being alone in the bottom 3 for the largest possible amount of combinations is pretty good, so I consider the mission a success. Now we just hope the basketball gods smile on us on lottery night.

As for the Bulls pick, I guess we should be mildly disappointed that they won and moved into a tie for 8/9/10? Especially should they lose whatever coinflip shenanigans will go on later? Or should we be happy that that pick has a even bigger chance to convey now? I'm not 100% sure on that one yet.

edit: looked over on the Bulls board and they were pretty mad about winning, so at least that's a good sign.

A month ago, the Bulls was 10th and with the trade looked to make the play-ins. Looking forward, a 8/9/10 tie is not a bad outcome for Orlando post the Vučević-trade. Seriously, when Magic management made this trade, the team was probably forecasting the Bulls to make the play-in and not make the play-offs. That would have slotted the pick as a solid 13 or 14 pick. That it is likely to be the 9th pick is good.

..

drsd · Post #1302 » by **drsd** » Mon May 17, 2021 1:27 pm

Singularly the most likely outcome of the draft lottery is for the Magic to draft 6th. Any result above that is a good result for Orlando.

Top pick = 14% chance
In the top 2 = 27.42%
In the top 3 = 40.17%
In the top 4 = 52.14%
In the top 5 = 66.98%
In the top 6 = 92.98%
(And top-7 is 100% obviously)

MAGICian619 · Post #1303 » by **MAGICian619** » Mon May 17, 2021 1:40 pm

thelead wrote:Bulls went from a 26% chance at a top 4 pick to a 20% chance with tonight’s win. What a great night for us. Now, let’s hope they win the coin flip and get placed at 8th.

Absolutely. Although they moved into the 8-9-10 the Bulls now have less of a chance of keeping their pick. If they win the coin flip and get the 8 slot this would be the most ideal situation, lesser odds of being drawn but still holding the 8th slot.

So with that being said, anyone know when these tie breaking coin flips occur?

drsd · Post #1304 » by **drsd** » Mon May 17, 2021 1:41 pm

My final tankathon pull until the Bulls has their "coin" flip:

Magic - 5
Bulls - 10

That is a not horrible outcome from the lottery gods. And is basically what I am expecting.

..

MAGICian619 · Post #1305 » by **MAGICian619** » Mon May 17, 2021 1:54 pm

MAGICian619 wrote:
thelead wrote:Bulls went from a 26% chance at a top 4 pick to a 20% chance with tonight’s win. What a great night for us. Now, let’s hope they win the coin flip and get placed at 8th.

Absolutely. Although they moved into the 8-9-10 the Bulls now have less of a chance of keeping their pick. If they win the coin flip and get the 8 slot this would be the most ideal situation, lesser odds of being drawn but still holding the 8th slot.

So with that being said, anyone know when these tie breaking coin flips occur?

Apparently it will be pretty soon if history is an indicator:

Last regular season game: 8/13/20
Tie breaking coin toss: 8/17/21

Last regular season game: 4/10/19
Tie breaking coin toss: 4/13/19

Nyce_1 · Post #1306 » by **Nyce_1** » Mon May 17, 2021 3:21 pm

KillMonger wrote:Who thought it was a good idea to have the draft lottery june 22nd? If it was up to me i'd have it right before the playoffs started

The league needs a month to fix the balls.

Skin · Post #1307 » by **Skin** » Mon May 17, 2021 4:24 pm

Wild ride but thrilled we are sole position of 3rd!!!

Gomagic44 · Post #1308 » by **Gomagic44** » Mon May 17, 2021 4:25 pm

I am happy we tanked properly. May the basketball gods bless us.

Sent from my HD1900 using RealGM mobile app

tiderulz · Post #1309 » by **tiderulz** » Mon May 17, 2021 5:21 pm

frustrating part now is the wait until the lottery

Post #1310 » by **Howard Mass** » Mon May 17, 2021 6:21 pm

The Effect wrote:
Howard Mass wrote:
tiderulz wrote:sold for a pick protect 31-45 in 2025

Nah, they'd net 3-4 future 2nds for #33 if they went that route.

Sure, maybe 3-4 top 55 protected picks in 2030/31/32/33

But considering we already have multiple 2nd rounders over the next few years from the bucks (22,23,24,26) and celtics (i dont know the years but i remember it was a while away right? like 2025?).....im betting this years 2nd rounder is either a stash or gets sold. Im hoping for stash

Nah, much better 2nds than that.

uraverage · Post #1311 » by **uraverage** » Mon May 17, 2021 7:02 pm

Howard Mass wrote:
The Effect wrote:
Howard Mass wrote:
Nah, they'd net 3-4 future 2nds for #33 if they went that route.

Sure, maybe 3-4 top 55 protected picks in 2030/31/32/33

But considering we already have multiple 2nd rounders over the next few years from the bucks (22,23,24,26) and celtics (i dont know the years but i remember it was a while away right? like 2025?).....im betting this years 2nd rounder is either a stash or gets sold. Im hoping for stash

Nah, much better 2nds than that.

Depending on how the first round plays out, thinking we need to pick up a backup Center in the second round (makes its easier to move Bamba or WCJ at the deadline). Not sure if we trade back and pick up another 2nd or reach at 33. Who would we even take, I could be sold on Bassey or Garza (maybe).

DiplomaticMagic · Post #1312 » by **DiplomaticMagic** » Mon May 17, 2021 7:12 pm

We did everything we could.

Now we need the most luck.

Magic_Johnny12 · Post #1313 » by **Magic_Johnny12** » Mon May 17, 2021 7:20 pm

DiplomaticMagic wrote:We did everything we could.

Now we need the most luck.

It's crazy to say we need the most luck when having the best odds to land #1 :lol:

But that's todays NBA.

Someone or a couple of teams will def. move up.

At the end of the day all you can do is sit back and watch and congratulate the coaching staff and front office for doing everything in their power to be in this situation.

Is it crazy to say that I would have the same exact reaction if we land #2 or #3 oppose to #1

I am that high on players like Mobley/Green.

This has all the feats. of the Wade/Lebron/Bosh/Melo draft.

drsd · Post #1314 » by **drsd** » Mon May 17, 2021 7:34 pm

KillMonger wrote:so if i'm seeing the odds correctly, we have about a 67% chance of landing a top 5 pick? i'll take those odds

66.98%

..

RookieStar · Post #1315 » by **RookieStar** » Mon May 17, 2021 8:31 pm

KillMonger wrote:Who thought it was a good idea to have the draft lottery june 22nd? If it was up to me i'd have it right before the playoffs started

Just gives us more time to salivate YT videos on this very loaded draft class lol

Speaking of.. how come there aren't new materials for the prospects? Are they all in a secret facility or something?

Dub_Sax · Post #1316 » by **Dub_Sax** » Tue May 18, 2021 3:33 am

For all the pro tankers, I have to ask.. did the magic tank "properly" this season?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app

RookieStar · Post #1317 » by **RookieStar** » Tue May 18, 2021 4:19 am

Dub_Sax wrote:For all the pro tankers, I have to ask.. did the magic tank "properly" this season?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app

I cant speak for everyone else but yes. I knew an unexpected win will always come with a rpster of top NCAA talents despite being considered scrubs in the league. HOU just did their tank earlier than us otherwise I think our FO couldve had the #1 spot with their moves.

Dub_Sax · Post #1318 » by **Dub_Sax** » Tue May 18, 2021 4:33 am

RookieStar wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:For all the pro tankers, I have to ask.. did the magic tank "properly" this season?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app

I cant speak for everyone else but yes. I knew an unexpected win will always come with a rpster of top NCAA talents despite being considered scrubs in the league. HOU just did their tank earlier than us otherwise I think our FO couldve had the #1 spot with their moves.

you do realize that ORL and HOU are TIED for a chance at the 1st pick, right?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app

Post #1319 » by **Knightro** » Tue May 18, 2021 4:47 am

Dub_Sax wrote:For all the pro tankers, I have to ask.. did the magic tank "properly" this season?

Once they traded Vucevic, Fournier, Gordon and Aminu, then yes, they pretty much tanked properly.

The case could be made that waiting until deadline day to unload everyone cost them the 2nd worst record since they won twice in the six days leading up to the trade deadline.

Playing all the veterans the day before unloading all of them was particularly egregious.

RookieStar · Post #1320 » by **RookieStar** » Tue May 18, 2021 5:33 am

Dub_Sax wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:For all the pro tankers, I have to ask.. did the magic tank "properly" this season?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app

I cant speak for everyone else but yes. I knew an unexpected win will always come with a rpster of top NCAA talents despite being considered scrubs in the league. HOU just did their tank earlier than us otherwise I think our FO couldve had the #1 spot with their moves.
you do realize that ORL and HOU are TIED for a chance at the 1st pick, right?

Sent from my SM-G955U using RealGM mobile app

Huh? I thought I read somewhere here saying #1 and #3 odds have a miniscule difference. like if #1 has 200 balls #3 only has 185 or something... or i might have gotten confused.