Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[pcbothwel]

Pif, I'm not sure how you come up with KG being better than JJJ as rookies. It's not even close - statistically. JJJ produced considerably more and was far more efficient. The 2nd year, they were very close.

It's not all about scoring, right...?

Per 40 minutes: Garnett got more defensive boards, 60% more offensive boards, 50% more assists, while Jackson turned the ball over about 35% more frequently & Garnett had 12.5% more steals. Jackson also committed 75% more fouls than Garnett. As well, KG had slightly more blocks.

The difference in Garnett's favor was even greater his second year. & of course, over the years, Garnett went up & up & up. That's not a reason to think Jackson will do the same.

It's not that hard. Just look at total production and efficiency - PER and TS%. In their rookie years - both at 19: KG had a PER of 15.8 and a TS% of .522. JJJ had 16.4 and .591. That's a huge difference, and you really can't get around it by picking and choosing individual stats just because they fit your pre-determined position.

In their second year, KG took over the lead in production, but JJJ still had a huge advantage in efficiency. KG had a PER of 18.2 and a TS% OF .537. JJJ had a PER of 16.3 and a TS% OF .593.

Why would you completely ignore scoring and scoring efficiency?

Ruz...Im going to lean towards KG on this, even though its close. You cant talk about about scoring efficiency without context. The league has vastly changed over the last 20 years. JJJ was raised as a stretch big, where KG was more traditional.
KG was a good shooter, even in his first few years...but you can only be so efficient when 60%+ of your FGA are from 10-24 feet. By contrast, JJJ is at 10% for those same shots.

Either way... I think Bigs have to be in two distinct buckets. Max guys and MLE.
You are either generationally great everywhere (Embiid), an offensive savant that are possession kings (Elite TS, Elite Passing/Low assist... Jokic), or you are an absolute defensive anchor that completely dictates the other teams offense (Gobert).

If not, then your value gets get in half. We are the perfect example of that. You can patch together a great big rotation for cheap, and you cant do that anywhere else.

JJJ is going to be another Myles Turner/KP. He'll tantalize with high efficiency due to his 3 point shot and he'll block a lot of shots. But his overall defensive presence will be less than elite and he wont make anyone better/create. Those kind of guys making 20M+ make it too tough to build around, especially if you didnt draft them and therefore give up assets to attain them.

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

[nate33]

Either way... I think Bigs have to be in two distinct buckets. Max guys and MLE.
You are either generationally great everywhere (Embiid), an offensive savant that are possession kings (Elite TS, Elite Passing/Low assist... Jokic), or you are an absolute defensive anchor that completely dictates the other teams offense (Gobert).

If not, then your value gets get in half. We are the perfect example of that. You can patch together a great big rotation for cheap, and you cant do that anywhere else.

JJJ is going to be another Myles Turner/KP. He'll tantalize with high efficiency due to his 3 point shot and he'll block a lot of shots. But his overall defensive presence will be less than elite and he wont make anyone better/create. Those kind of guys making 20M+ make it too tough to build around, especially if you didnt draft them and therefore give up assets to attain them.

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

Well said!

One other small point about comparing JJJ and KG as rookies. KG came straight out of high school and therefore had less experience. And physically, he was just a stick figure who hadn't yet put on any mass. He played SF as a rookie. Rookie JJJ may have been roughly as young as rookie KG, but he was much more developed physically. I don't think it's meaningful to compare the two as rookies, particularly when we can now compare their respective 2nd and 3rd seasons.

[Ruzious]

It's not all about scoring, right...?

Per 40 minutes: Garnett got more defensive boards, 60% more offensive boards, 50% more assists, while Jackson turned the ball over about 35% more frequently & Garnett had 12.5% more steals. Jackson also committed 75% more fouls than Garnett. As well, KG had slightly more blocks.

The difference in Garnett's favor was even greater his second year. & of course, over the years, Garnett went up & up & up. That's not a reason to think Jackson will do the same.

It's not that hard. Just look at total production and efficiency - PER and TS%. In their rookie years - both at 19: KG had a PER of 15.8 and a TS% of .522. JJJ had 16.4 and .591. That's a huge difference, and you really can't get around it by picking and choosing individual stats just because they fit your pre-determined position.

In their second year, KG took over the lead in production, but JJJ still had a huge advantage in efficiency. KG had a PER of 18.2 and a TS% OF .537. JJJ had a PER of 16.3 and a TS% OF .593.

Why would you completely ignore scoring and scoring efficiency?

Ruz...Im going to lean towards KG on this, even though its close. You cant talk about about scoring efficiency without context. The league has vastly changed over the last 20 years. JJJ was raised as a stretch big, where KG was more traditional.
KG was a good shooter, even in his first few years...but you can only be so efficient when 60%+ of your FGA are from 10-24 feet. By contrast, JJJ is at 10% for those same shots.

Either way... I think Bigs have to be in two distinct buckets. Max guys and MLE.
You are either generationally great everywhere (Embiid), an offensive savant that are possession kings (Elite TS, Elite Passing/Low assist... Jokic), or you are an absolute defensive anchor that completely dictates the other teams offense (Gobert).

If not, then your value gets get in half. We are the perfect example of that. You can patch together a great big rotation for cheap, and you cant do that anywhere else.

JJJ is going to be another Myles Turner/KP. He'll tantalize with high efficiency due to his 3 point shot and he'll block a lot of shots. But his overall defensive presence will be less than elite and he wont make anyone better/create. Those kind of guys making 20M+ make it too tough to build around, especially if you didnt draft them and therefore give up assets to attain them.

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

The discussion was only comparing the 1st 2 years of JJJ vs KG. I wasn't saying that JJJ is going to have a better career than KG - obviously.

As far as those comps to Turner and KP, I don't see it. JJJ is on his way to be Myles ahead of Turner as an offensive player. And he's much quicker than KP. His ability to play PF is a big difference between them.

[Ruzious]

Either way... I think Bigs have to be in two distinct buckets. Max guys and MLE.
You are either generationally great everywhere (Embiid), an offensive savant that are possession kings (Elite TS, Elite Passing/Low assist... Jokic), or you are an absolute defensive anchor that completely dictates the other teams offense (Gobert).

If not, then your value gets get in half. We are the perfect example of that. You can patch together a great big rotation for cheap, and you cant do that anywhere else.

JJJ is going to be another Myles Turner/KP. He'll tantalize with high efficiency due to his 3 point shot and he'll block a lot of shots. But his overall defensive presence will be less than elite and he wont make anyone better/create. Those kind of guys making 20M+ make it too tough to build around, especially if you didnt draft them and therefore give up assets to attain them.

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

Well said!

One other small point about comparing JJJ and KG as rookies. KG came straight out of high school and therefore had less experience. And physically, he was just a stick figure who hadn't yet put on any mass. He played SF. Rookie JJJ may have been roughly as young as rookie KG, but he was much more developed physically. I don't think it's meaningful to compare the two as rookies, particularly when we can now compare their respective 2nd and 3rd seasons.

KG was skinny at the end of his career, too. That's his body type. JJJ was definitely not fully developed physically as a rookie, either. I think you guys are missing the boat if you don't see JJJ as being one of the top few young talents in the game.

[nate33]

Either way... I think Bigs have to be in two distinct buckets. Max guys and MLE.
You are either generationally great everywhere (Embiid), an offensive savant that are possession kings (Elite TS, Elite Passing/Low assist... Jokic), or you are an absolute defensive anchor that completely dictates the other teams offense (Gobert).

If not, then your value gets get in half. We are the perfect example of that. You can patch together a great big rotation for cheap, and you cant do that anywhere else.

JJJ is going to be another Myles Turner/KP. He'll tantalize with high efficiency due to his 3 point shot and he'll block a lot of shots. But his overall defensive presence will be less than elite and he wont make anyone better/create. Those kind of guys making 20M+ make it too tough to build around, especially if you didnt draft them and therefore give up assets to attain them.

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

Well said!

One other small point about comparing JJJ and KG as rookies. KG came straight out of high school and therefore had less experience. And physically, he was just a stick figure who hadn't yet put on any mass. He played SF. Rookie JJJ may have been roughly as young as rookie KG, but he was much more developed physically. I don't think it's meaningful to compare the two as rookies, particularly when we can now compare their respective 2nd and 3rd seasons.

KG was skinny at the end of his career, too. That's his body type. JJJ was definitely not fully developed physically as a rookie, either. I think you guys are missing the boat if you don't see JJJ as being one of the top few young talents in the game.

I don't disagree that he is talented. I just didn't think the KG comparison was relevant. KG is a truly unique player.

Do you really think he has the talent to be a top 5-ish center in the league. Can he get to the Jokic/Embiid/Davis/Gobert/Adebayo tier of guys who are worth max money? Or do you think he is a tier below, more in line with guys like Turner or Vucevic?

[DCZards]

I’m with Ruz. If I could find a way to trade for JJJ I’m doing it. I’d trade Gafford for him in a NY minute.

Injuries have slowed JJJ’s development but I love his potential. If he can stay healthy, he’s gonna be a force on both ends of the court.

[Ruzious]

Well said!

One other small point about comparing JJJ and KG as rookies. KG came straight out of high school and therefore had less experience. And physically, he was just a stick figure who hadn't yet put on any mass. He played SF. Rookie JJJ may have been roughly as young as rookie KG, but he was much more developed physically. I don't think it's meaningful to compare the two as rookies, particularly when we can now compare their respective 2nd and 3rd seasons.

KG was skinny at the end of his career, too. That's his body type. JJJ was definitely not fully developed physically as a rookie, either. I think you guys are missing the boat if you don't see JJJ as being one of the top few young talents in the game.

I don't disagree that he is talented. I just didn't think the KG comparison was relevant. KG is a truly unique player.

Do you really think he has the talent to be a top 5-ish center in the league. Can he get to the Jokic/Embiid/Davis/Gobert/Adebayo tier of guys who are worth max money? Or do you think he is a tier below, more in line with guys like Turner or Vucevic?

I think he's a PF that can play center. Remember in college, he played as a freshman with Bridges - who's really blossomed the second half of this season - and neither of them was the team's go-to interior scorer at Michigan State. It was Nick Ward. And they had another freshman big - Xavier Tillman. Btw, Cassius Winston was their PG. In the NBA, he's played with Gasol and then Jonas V after they were traded for each other. He's always been more forward than center. And he's got great lateral movement to defend any type of front court player. Like I said before, I see him being in the tier right below Anthony Davis as a PF/C - more PF than C. He's even injury-prone like Davis. If he stays healthy next season, I expect we'll see him take that step up - like Bridges has.

[pcbothwel]

I’m with Ruz. If I could find a way to trade for JJJ I’m doing it. I’d trade Gafford for him in a NY minute.

Injuries have slowed JJJ’s development but I love his potential. If he can stay healthy, he’s gonna be a force on both ends of the court.

JJJ will more than likely be better than Gafford, but thats not the question. Do you pay 7.5M more for JJJ than Gafford next year, and probably 20M more for JJJ the following year?
Allocation of resources

[DCZards]

I’m with Ruz. If I could find a way to trade for JJJ I’m doing it. I’d trade Gafford for him in a NY minute.

Injuries have slowed JJJ’s development but I love his potential. If he can stay healthy, he’s gonna be a force on both ends of the court.

JJJ will more than likely be better than Gafford, but thats not the question. Do you pay 7.5M more for JJJ than Gafford next year, and probably 20M more for JJJ the following year?
Allocation of resources

You’re going to have to pay someone if you’re going to compete for a championship. Russ and Beal are not enough.

JJJ is still young and, imo, has a chance of becoming one of the top 3-4 bigs of his era...if he can stay healthy.

[Ruzious]

Again, I think JJJ is more PF than C. I'd love to see him and Gafford playing together.

[nate33]

It's probably a moot point. I don't see any way Memphis trades him.

[payitforward]

Pif, I'm not sure how you come up with KG being better than JJJ as rookies. It's not even close - statistically. JJJ produced considerably more and was far more efficient. The 2nd year, they were very close.

It's not all about scoring, right...?

Per 40 minutes: Garnett got more defensive boards, 60% more offensive boards, 50% more assists, while Jackson turned the ball over about 35% more frequently & Garnett had 12.5% more steals. Jackson also committed 75% more fouls than Garnett. As well, KG had slightly more blocks.

The difference in Garnett's favor was even greater his second year. & of course, over the years, Garnett went up & up & up. That's not a reason to think Jackson will do the same.

It's not that hard. Just look at total production and efficiency - PER and TS%. In their rookie years - both at 19: KG had a PER of 15.8 and a TS% of .522. JJJ had 16.4 and .591. That's a huge difference, and you really can't get around it by picking and choosing individual stats just because they fit your pre-determined position.

In their second year, KG took over the lead in production, but JJJ still had a huge advantage in efficiency. KG had a PER of 18.2 and a TS% OF .537. JJJ had a PER of 16.3 and a TS% OF .593.

Why would you completely ignore scoring and scoring efficiency?

I didn't ignore either one, Ruz. But, PER way over-values shooting the ball. If my FG% is, say, 40%, & i take a shot & miss it, my PER goes up not down.

Nor did I "pick and choose individual stats." I used my customary method to add all the box score pluses & subtract all the minuses. The result between them isn't real close.

But... where can this go, really? & what's the point? I.e. the next thing would be arguing about how to measure the meaning of the stats themselves, & that just leads to an argument with no point & no possible resulution.

JJJ is a super-talented kid; no one would deny that! The two big things that would make him more productive are to foul less (a lot less!) & to rebound better. No reason he can't or won't do either of them. As for his potential as a trade target -- I can't imagine trading Beal to get him. Other proposals could be interesting.

Still, for me at least, the big problem is that JJJ got worse his second year in the area where he had the biggest need to get better -- rebounding. & that he didn't improve in the other biggest problem area -- fouls. Those things make me worry about his commitment & bbiq. (not saying they rule him out -- just saying those are problematic)

[prime1time]

What makes Jaren Jackson Jr better than Thomas Bryant?

[pcbothwel]

What makes Jaren Jackson Jr better than Thomas Bryant?

Defense. JJJ is very nimble and built like a condor. Assuming he takes pride on that end of the court and his IQ/Awareness continue to improve, he's going to be a a real problem for teams.
To me, NOP should be doing whatever to get someone like him or Mobley next to Zion.

[payitforward]

:cry:

I’m with Ruz. If I could find a way to trade for JJJ I’m doing it. I’d trade Gafford for him in a NY minute.

Injuries have slowed JJJ’s development but I love his potential. If he can stay healthy, he’s gonna be a force on both ends of the court.

JJJ will more than likely be better than Gafford, but thats not the question. Do you pay 7.5M more for JJJ than Gafford next year, and probably 20M more for JJJ the following year?
Allocation of resources

You’re going to have to pay someone if you’re going to compete for a championship. Russ and Beal are not enough.

JJJ is still young and, imo, has a chance of becoming one of the top 3-4 bigs of his era...if he can stay healthy.

Look... in the abstract, anyone would trade Gafford straight up for JJJ !! That has nothing to do with who is the more productive player now. It's just taking a flyer on potential, so of course you'd do it.

Only.... it doesn't show any truth about anything or even mean anything! Memphis isn't taking Gafford for JJJ....

[payitforward]

I don't understand this exchange....

The only question is whether you'd trade Beal for JJJ -- would you?

Ruz says yes. How about you, Zards?

Otherwise, we're just asking whether this supreme athlete, only 21 years old, taken #3 in the draft a few years ago, already able to score effectively in the NBA... whether this guy has potential.

Well, um... yeah. He does. He has a lot of potential. I mean.... ???

[DCZards]

No, I wouldn’t trade Beal for JJJ. But that wasn’t the question I was responding to. This is the question I was responding to:

Question. Given all you know and have seen over the last 3 months, would you trade Gafford straight up for JJJ? I wouldnt.

[Ruzious]

What makes Jaren Jackson Jr better than Thomas Bryant?

Not much offensively. But defensively, JJJ is fabulous - able to mirror the moves of the player he is defending and provide rim protection.

[Ruzious]

I don't understand this exchange....

The only question is whether you'd trade Beal for JJJ -- would you?

Ruz says yes. How about you, Zards?

Otherwise, we're just asking whether this supreme athlete, only 21 years old, taken #3 in the draft a few years ago, already able to score effectively in the NBA... whether this guy has potential.

Well, um... yeah. He does. He has a lot of potential. I mean.... ???

That's NOT the trade I suggested. Right? Lol, remember you addressing the other players that were in my trade proposal - like how Memphis wouldn't include Melton or Bane?

[Ruzious]

It's not all about scoring, right...?

Per 40 minutes: Garnett got more defensive boards, 60% more offensive boards, 50% more assists, while Jackson turned the ball over about 35% more frequently & Garnett had 12.5% more steals. Jackson also committed 75% more fouls than Garnett. As well, KG had slightly more blocks.

The difference in Garnett's favor was even greater his second year. & of course, over the years, Garnett went up & up & up. That's not a reason to think Jackson will do the same.

It's not that hard. Just look at total production and efficiency - PER and TS%. In their rookie years - both at 19: KG had a PER of 15.8 and a TS% of .522. JJJ had 16.4 and .591. That's a huge difference, and you really can't get around it by picking and choosing individual stats just because they fit your pre-determined position.

In their second year, KG took over the lead in production, but JJJ still had a huge advantage in efficiency. KG had a PER of 18.2 and a TS% OF .537. JJJ had a PER of 16.3 and a TS% OF .593.

Why would you completely ignore scoring and scoring efficiency?

I didn't ignore either one, Ruz. But, PER way over-values shooting the ball. If my FG% is, say, 40%, & i take a shot & miss it, my PER goes up not down.

Nor did I "pick and choose individual stats." I used my customary method to add all the box score pluses & subtract all the minuses. The result between them isn't real close.

But... where can this go, really? & what's the point? I.e. the next thing would be arguing about how to measure the meaning of the stats themselves, & that just leads to an argument with no point & no possible resulution.

JJJ is a super-talented kid; no one would deny that! The two big things that would make him more productive are to foul less (a lot less!) & to rebound better. No reason he can't or won't do either of them. As for his potential as a trade target -- I can't imagine trading Beal to get him. Other proposals could be interesting.

Still, for me at least, the big problem is that JJJ got worse his second year in the area where he had the biggest need to get better -- rebounding. & that he didn't improve in the other biggest problem area -- fouls. Those things make me worry about his commitment & bbiq. (not saying they rule him out -- just saying those are problematic)

Yes you did ignore it - you certainly didn't mention it before, and you still haven't really addressed scoring efficiency, but enough's enough. I think you're COMPLETELY wrong on this, and obviously you feel the same way.