[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz

[sansterre]

You know, I was pretty intrigued by the idea that Dantley leaving the Jazz helped them to get better (or at least, stay equally good) and I thought I'd look deeper. The offense *did* get worse when he left, by 1.2 points per 100 (relative to league average). But losing what looks like an ATG offensive stud intuitively should lead to a bigger drop than that.

I was looking for a trend like the Sixers in '67 and I didn't find it.

Mark Eaton: -3.0 OBPM -> -3.8 OBPM
Thurl Bailey: -0.5 OBPM -> -1.0 OBPM
Bob Hansen: -2.6 OBPM -> -1.8 OBPM
Rickey Green: +0.8 OBPM -> +0.8 OBPM
And Kelly Tripucka came in for Dantley (mostly): +6.0 OBPM -> -1.6 OBPM

So . . . those top four guys pretty much treaded water and there was a massive offensive downgrade from Dantley to Tripucka. So there's no evidence here that losing Dantley made the rest of the team improve (ie, that he was holding them back from holding the ball too long or crowding the lane in an offense with three other bigs getting serious minutes). And, at least from this examination, we'd expect the Jazz' offense to have gotten far worse than 1.2 PPX. Are we missing anyone?

Karl Malone: -2.4 OBPM -> +0.3 OBPM (turning 23)
John Stockton: +0.5 OBPM -> +1.6 OBPM (turning 24)

So Malone and Stockton (both in their early 20s) took steps forward (Malone especially). The timing suggests that losing Dantley was a triggering event but we're also talking about two ATG players in their early 20s; we would expect improvement here, and we're talking an improvement that hit *none* of the other players.

So, at least from this quick study, I'd conclude that holding the Jazz' offense not imploding against Dantley isn't really fair. When you're comparing losing him to gaining the increased production of two historically great players as they ascended toward their peak . . . this is clearly an aberrant situation. It obviously doesn't make Dantley look particularly good, but it isn't fair to say that "Losing Dantley only led to a 0.1 PPX drop on offense so he clearly was overrated" because 1) the entire league jumped in offense by 1.1 PPX in that time, so the Jazz *did* see a solid drop relative to league average and 2) holding Stockton and Malone developing against him isn't entirely reasonable.

Not weighing in, save with the data and cautious conclusions.

[Odinn21]

The Jazz results;

Code: Select all

1. 9-2-0-0-0 / 104 points / 0.945 share / '98 Karl Malone
2. 2-8-0-1-0 /  79 points / 0.718 share / '92 John Stockton
3. 0-1-3-5-2 /  39 points / 0.355 share / '84 Adrian Dantley
4. 0-0-5-1-4 /  32 points / 0.291 share / '17 Rudy Gobert
5. 0-0-1-2-2 /  13 points / 0.118 share / '04 Andrei Kirilenko

6. 0-0-1-1-0 /   8 points / 0.073 share / '96 Jeff Hornacek
7. 0-0-1-0-2 /   7 points / 0.064 share / '10 Deron Williams
8. 0-0-0-1-0 /   3 points / 0.027 share / '20 Donovan Mitchell
9. 0-0-0-0-1 /   1 points / 0.009 share / '17 Gordon Hayward

Results on Google Sheet

[Colbinii]

Bit disappointed in Dantley over Gobert but the sample is small. Nice list of the top 5.

[Joao Saraiva]

Bit disappointed in Dantley over Gobert but the sample is small. Nice list of the top 5.

Why? I feel the list is quite on target overall.

I honestly expected to see Boozer 07 somehow in the run tough. Even tough his attitude was far from being great in Utah and his defense being suspect to say the least he was absolutely going crazy in that run. I think his importance in a long run to the WCF is something we haven't seen a lot in our franchise.

Still, it's a great list. And Dantley absolutely deserves the spot the way I see it. Our first successfull #1 option (taking us to the playoffs) and a superb scoring machine in the post.

[falcolombardi]

not saying he deserved them but i am impressed pete maravich didnt get a single vote, not even honorable mentions from what i saw

were his numbers that empty?

[Dr Positivity]

not saying he deserved them but i am impressed pete maravich didnt get a single vote, not even honorable mentions from what i saw

were his numbers that empty?

Yes. The talent was there but chucker and a hot dog as a passer. His best advanced season of .144 WS/48 2.5 BPM would be worse if they counted turnovers at the time where he was probably at all time rates (averaged 5 the first season they tracked it). Barely won anything. Playing for his dad in college and taking 38 shots a game was probably the worst thing that ever happened to him. He could have gotten in for weaker team but not one where an excellent guard like Deron finished 7th.