dougthonus wrote:CobyWhite0 wrote:You shouldn't be cringing at all - because it makes absolutely, positively no difference how much Zach gets paid when he's a free agent in July 2022 - his cap hold will be $29,250,000. Which means whatever his new deal is, we'll have the same amount of cap space.
And if truly wants every penny, we can offer him 5 years, $201,465,400 vs 4 years, $149,363,940 if he signs elsewhere. The team would have to be pretty bad next season for him to leave and give up at least $52 million in guaranteed $$$.
And I say "at least $52 million" because while I would say it's unlikely at this moment, if he can make another leap to All-NBA 3rd-Team next season, we can give him the Supermax of 5 years, $235,045,580. He sure as hell isn't leaving $85 million+ on the table to sign elsewhere.
But no matter how much we wind up paying him in the summer of 2022, his cap hold will be $29,250,000. That's the number that counts when clearing cap space that summer. And if we somehow get two perfect free agents (or trades, or one of each) this summer and go into July 2022 already capped out, then Zach's new salary obviously won't effect our cap situation at all.
Zach wanting every penny he can get is actually great, super, incredible news for Bulls fans - except, of course, for the approximately 1% who think he isn't worth the max. Because it not only means Zach can get the most money here, but he'll be all kinds of motivated to earn his way onto an All-NBA Team in 2021-22 so he can really break the bank.
His cap hold only really matters if the Bulls make a play to stay under the cap in 2022 (this is my preferred action, but doesn't appear thus far to be the direction the FO has hinted at, so I think it is unlikely). If the Bulls don't have considerable cap room, then his cap hold is (obviously) replaced by his real salary going forward.
In terms of whether he'd leave a supermax on the table? Probably not.
Would he leave 52M on the table? Maybe. The thing is if he's a great player in three years (and Zach probably thinks that will be the case) then he can sign a 2 year deal with a PO, if he's still great, opt out, then sign a new five year deal with his existing team and make more money over the first five years getting three of those years on the 35% max than if he signs the five year deal today.
Yeah, I mentioned that in the post after the one you quoted:
"Even if he doesn't qualify for the Supermax in July 2022, he'd sign a 30% max deal for 2 years (or 3 with a PO), then opt out and sign for the 35% max anyway.
I'm on my way out so I can't do the math right now, but with the cap going up quite a bit for the 2024-25 season, giving him the Supermax in July 2022 won't turn out to be a huge difference over what he can get with a non-Supermax deal in 2022 that has to be re-done in July 2024."
Assuming the current cap projection of $127,408,336 for the 2024-25 season, a 2-year deal starting in July 2022 starting at the 30% max plus the first 3 years of a new deal signed in July 2024 at the 35% max, the total of the 5 years would be $217,016,912.
A 5-year deal signed in July 2022 starting at 30% of that year's cap pays him $201,465,400.
So that's an extra $15.5 million over 5 years by signing a 2+3 deal instead of a 5-year deal. Of course, those figures are based on all of those deals being signed with the Bulls, it's less if he changes teams due to lower raises. Not a big difference in 5% vs 8% raises, a little over $1 million for the first 2 years.
If he stays with that team, they'd have early Bird Rights, so the final 3 years would be the same as if he did a 2+3 with the Bulls. So definitely if he leaves in 2022 and re-signs in 2024, he'd make about $1 million less over the 5 years than doing a 2+3 here.
If Zach wants to change teams in 2022, and change teams again in 2024, over 5 years he'd make $211,787,563. So changing teams twice would cost him about $5.4 million over 5 years vs a 2+3 staying in Chicago.
So yeah you're right and I was mistaken, I can see him leaving an extra $52 million guaranteed on the table. Barring a career-ending injury, the money is about the same over the 5 years.
One thing I should add, looking at the $$$, it doesn't make much sense to use cap space to max Zach out this summer - for either side. It gets Zach $109,482,242 over the next 3 seasons vs $91,750,464 - but it also costs him his chance of getting a Supermax deal next summer.
Either way, that extra money due to an extra year should be taken with a grain of salt. Good chance that if Zach is willing to take some risk he can make more with a shorter deal and pick his destination and keep flexibility to change his destination a second time if he wants.
We've seen that example by lots of star players where they take shorter deals to aim towards the 10 year vet max. Thompson and Durant each got max deals even knowing they missed a full season, so the injury risk isn't even as great as you'd think it might be (though Isaiah Thomas and DeMarcus Cousins might not agree).
Agreed
Forget those guys, let's move on.
