2021 Packers News, Trades, Transactions - Sternberger Released

[Reddeye]

I thought I read his fiance has homes in Colorado and California. Probably just a coincidence that the trade teams mentioned were 49ers, Raiders and Broncos.

[th87]

Ok, so you are answer is clear, you will not acknowledge any drop off in his play.

I could just as easily make the case there was enough talent and a good enough system around Rodgers to allow him to get to the 4000 yards with Adams missing 4 games.
Week 5 - Aaron Jones has 107 rushing 75 receiving and 4TD
Week 6 - just an ugly win
Week 7 - Rodgers goes for 429 and 5TD to 5 different guys
Week 8 - Rodgers goes for 300 and 3TD with the RB combining for 173 receiving with 3TD

So I am not buying this narrative he is dragging along a bunch of bums, there is talent there. What is hard for people to see is that this offense is so predicated on very specific roles to make it work, and you don't necessarily need a high end talent as much as you need a guy that perform that particular role at a high level. It is also why I was wrong when I yelled we need a high end WR in the previous years draft, turns out we didn't, turns out we had all the right role players on the roster and when you fit those together, you have more than enough talent, in this system.

After I said that Rodgers wasn't that bad and point to Yards, TDs and INTs even with terrible WRs. The you say he was because of this ridiculous "bad play" notion. Which I would love to see how and who grades this.

Did you now use Yards, TDs and INT's to prove that Aaron played well with his ass hat of WRs? What about the bad plays? I mean in the 4 games on 150 drop backs he had to have at least 60 right?

What a joke.

So RS gave you the calculation for Bad plays and you either didn't read it or you just didn't like it, so which was it? Thought it laid it out pretty clearly.

I am beginning to think you either have too many arguments going on or you just aren't trying to even consider what is being presented because you just don't want to change your opinion which would be fine, if you would come out and say it. It seems your argument would be something like a.) bad plays are just arbitrary scores dictated by PRO MANAGEMENT fans (it's not, it is a series of outcomes on plays, and yes, Rodgers graded the worst) and b.) MVS as the third WR doesn't give him the weapons passing he needs, he is doing all this great work IN SPITE of the roster, where as I laid out an argument we have a bunch of guys on this offense that are role players other than Adams and all chip in the passing game

I think you think, I think Rodgers isn't good or he is bad, that is untrue. I said he was in decline statistically, some examples;
Stat 2017, 2018, 2019
QBR(traditional) 97, 97.6, 95.4
QBR (ESPN) 66, 58, 52.5
Comp % 64.7, 62.3, 62
Y/A 7.0, 7.4, 7.0 (career 7.8)

Stat 2018, 2019, 2020 (for comparison to see how he was doing before when he bought in to MLF system in 2020)
Sacks 49, 36, 20
Hurry 90, 57, 33
Hits 38, 45, 28
Pressure 177, 138, 81
Throw Away 48, 31, 28
Bad Throws (as defined by Pro Football Ref) 106, 114, 69
Bad Throw % 19.4, 21.2, 13.8

This will demonstrate he was holding on to the ball too long trying to make bigger plays happen and he was getting crushed because of it. When you look at the 2020 numbers it shows you he bought into the offense and it frankly will extend his career because the way he was playing wasn't going to last before he got killed by the defense.

I did find some average time to throw or leave the pocket data once, that demonstrated the difference in him trying to make big plays and how much that was getting him killed, resulting in holds or throw aways, I'll see if I can dig that up.

So all this to say, Rodgers was not bad, by any means, but Rodgers in 2017-2019 was extremely risk adverse, extremely unwilling to 'take what was there' resulting in free lance play that led to tons of 'bad plays' as defined by other outlets, resulting in tons of pressures, sacks, hits, hurries, throw aways and bad throws. If you couple this with him being 36, not looking very healthy moving around and questions about losing his arm strength from the collarbone injuries, ON TOP of not seeming to jive with the new coach and the new system in 2019, and yeah, there were plenty of reasons to think succession planning was a good idea. Also plenty of reasons to believe he was more likely to be injured than bounce back to an MVP season (which I am not saying you said, but people saying it was more likely than him getting hurt is about the most revisionist history I have seen on Real GM).

All well and good. Joe Blow fans were able to recognize a statistical drop off that was definitely there.

But you'd want an adept FO (with the sophisticated tools and closeness unavailable to Joe Blow) to correctly assess *why* this drop-off occurred.

Gute apparently concluded what you did - that the statistical drop-off was a function of physical (or some other irreversible) decline, and so he needed to act accordingly.

Turns out he (and those fans) was wrong, and that the statistical drop-off was more mental and unfamiliarity with a new offense.

Getting this wrong turned out to be a franchise-altering mistake (for now), and a professional GM should be better at concluding things than message board guys just looking at YPA metrics. But he wasnt (at the current moment).

(I distinctly remember after 2006 when we were in discussions for Moss, there was a spirited debate here that Favre was washed up, with RS [then DB] arguing that Favre wasn't even as good as Marc Bulger. I remember losing my damn mind at this, because I believed Favre's 2005 and 2006 play was a function of no weapons and new offense respectively. And well...it seems there's a tendency here to exaggerate the rumors of a QB's demise.)

[sdn40]

trading him during the draft made a lot of sense. Trading him now doesnt make as much sense unless you get surtain + a hoard of picks over the next few years.

No - it didn't

[M-C-G]

But you'd want an adept FO (with the sophisticated tools and closeness unavailable to Joe Blow) to correctly assess *why* this drop-off occurred.

Gute apparently concluded what you did - that the statistical drop-off was a function of physical (or some other irreversible) decline, and so he needed to act accordingly.

Turns out he (and those fans) was wrong, and that the statistical drop-off was more mental and unfamiliarity with a new offense.

He was declining, that can't really be disputed right? Whether it was a continued decline or one he could have broken out of is the real question. And I'd argue planning for the future is a GM's job even if he thought Rodgers was playing out all four years of the contract.

And I'll also add it was not mental, there was a physical component that a lot of us talked about while the seasons where going. What was not anticipated was Rodgers converting himself into an ELITE and I mean that, ELITE game manager. He bought into the offense and started adopting more play action, throwing to guys that were open to let them make plays, trusting in his RB out of the backfield and not always trying to get 30 yards.

The biggest change was him buying into the MLF offense. And frankly it gives me even more optimism Gute knocked the coaching decision out of the park.

As for the 'why'
-collar bone and was it knee injuries? Resulting in more downfield inaccuracy and lack of production in the scramble
-wasn't running the offense in its timing, instead reverting back to big Mac offense where most the plays were made after 2.5 seconds after snap
-seemed to overly rely on Adams instead of spreading it around
-had a bit of an intolerance to anything other than shotgun, which limited the effectiveness of, well, most the offensive system as MLF wanted to run it
-has a historical lack in trusting certain guys, which he busted out of in a big way with his continued support of MVS
-was 36 years old and his stats were declining other than TD:INT all while taking way too many hits and pressures
-was hesitant to run like he did when he was younger to pick up first downs and instead would scramble to throw downfield with rather poor results
-before 2020 struggled hitting the RBs out of the backfield in stride
-and this one is debatable, but I at least talked about it with my buddies, he didn't seem to have mastered the playbook, which one year in for any normal QB is reasonable, but way out of character for Rodgers.

Again, I am holding him to his own standard he created, and it was a decline in nearly every facet.

I'm sure there is other stuff, but if you didn't notice any or all of those things, that might be green and gold rose colored glasses, but that's what I noticed.

[M-C-G]

trading him during the draft made a lot of sense. Trading him now doesnt make as much sense unless you get surtain + a hoard of picks over the next few years.

No - it didn't

WOAH, tone down the argument man!

If it was for that #3 pick, yeah, that was the time, depending on how likely you think it is he will be back in green bay. I think I was 75% sure he was out and now 50/50.

[stillgotgame]

But you'd want an adept FO (with the sophisticated tools and closeness unavailable to Joe Blow) to correctly assess *why* this drop-off occurred.

Gute apparently concluded what you did - that the statistical drop-off was a function of physical (or some other irreversible) decline, and so he needed to act accordingly.

Turns out he (and those fans) was wrong, and that the statistical drop-off was more mental and unfamiliarity with a new offense.

He was declining, that can't really be disputed right? Whether it was a continued decline or one he could have broken out of is the real question. And I'd argue planning for the future is a GM's job even if he thought Rodgers was playing out all four years of the contract.

And I'll also add it was not mental, there was a physical component that a lot of us talked about while the seasons where going. What was not anticipated was Rodgers converting himself into an ELITE and I mean that, ELITE game manager. He bought into the offense and started adopting more play action, throwing to guys that were open to let them make plays, trusting in his RB out of the backfield and not always trying to get 30 yards.

The biggest change was him buying into the MLF offense. And frankly it gives me even more optimism Gute knocked the coaching decision out of the park.

As for the 'why'
-collar bone and was it knee injuries? Resulting in more downfield inaccuracy and lack of production in the scramble
-wasn't running the offense in its timing, instead reverting back to big Mac offense where most the plays were made after 2.5 seconds after snap
-seemed to overly rely on Adams instead of spreading it around
-had a bit of an intolerance to anything other than shotgun, which limited the effectiveness of, well, most the offensive system as MLF wanted to run it
-has a historical lack in trusting certain guys, which he busted out of in a big way with his continued support of MVS
-was 36 years old and his stats were declining other than TD:INT all while taking way too many hits and pressures
-was hesitant to run like he did when he was younger to pick up first downs and instead would scramble to throw downfield with rather poor results
-before 2020 struggled hitting the RBs out of the backfield in stride
-and this one is debatable, but I at least talked about it with my buddies, he didn't seem to have mastered the playbook, which one year in for any normal QB is reasonable, but way out of character for Rodgers.

Again, I am holding him to his own standard he created, and it was a decline in nearly every facet.

I'm sure there is other stuff, but if you didn't notice any or all of those things, that might be green and gold rose colored glasses, but that's what I noticed.

So you're giving Gute credit for Rodgers turnaround in 2020 (because he hired MLF) but pinning Rodgers "decline " in 2018 & 19 entirely on Rodgers?
Why did Rodgers get so conservative during this time of decline? It didn't have anything to do with the complete fail of a decision to sign Jimmy Graham by Gute, and roll out Lazard & Geronimo Allison as the 2 & 3 WR in 2019? Weapons he had were truly pathetic. Yet at midseason in 2019 we were 7-1 and he was in the MVP conversation after throwing 5 TDs against the Raiders. Was he in decline then? Was it on Rodgers that we got completely run over by the Chargers & 49ers defensive lines?
Rodgers definitely didn't look right against the Lions in the season finale, that I agree was on him. I remember counting 17 poorly thrown passes during that game, something clearly wasn't right with him. But to say he was in decline in 2019 with garbage depth at WR, garbage washed up Jimmy Graham and a new offense - you're flat out wrong. Hand pick stats all you want if it makes you feel good about Gute, but this was on him just as much as Rodgers.

[M-C-G]

Rodgers decline was largely Rodgers, yes. My point about Gute hiring MLF was that he obviously got the pick right given the 2020 performance once Rodgers bought in. Sorry you can’t see it.

I’ll summarize it for you, the personnel around Rodgers in 2020 was almost identical to the trash you think he had in 2019. Rodgers executing the offense is by far the biggest difference. Make what you will of that, but if MVS is your THREE is your biggest problem, then when MVS was the three this year and Rodgers was MVP how do you reconcile? It’s almost the identical guys on offense yet when Rodgers played the offense he went from about the 10th best QB in the league to MVP.


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[Reddeye]

Rodgers said he looked at old film and made a physical change in his play. Why didn't he realize this sooner? Did the Love pick make him realize that he could play better? Maybe without the drafting of Love he doesn't change.

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[LittleRooster]

Rodgers said he looked at old film and made a physical change in his play. Why didn't he realize this sooner? Did the Love pick make him realize that he could play better? Maybe without the drafting of Love he doesn't change.

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You’d have to imagine he knew right? How could he not? That coaches had told him as such? I agree the drafting of Love relit a fire under him to actually improve his mechanics, finally


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[stillgotgame]

Rodgers decline was largely Rodgers, yes. My point about Gute hiring MLF was that he obviously got the pick right given the 2020 performance once Rodgers bought in. Sorry you can’t see it.

I’ll summarize it for you, the personnel around Rodgers in 2020 was almost identical to the trash you think he had in 2019. Rodgers executing the offense is by far the biggest difference. Make what you will of that, but if MVS is your THREE is your biggest problem, then when MVS was the three this year and Rodgers was MVP how do you reconcile? It’s almost the identical guys on offense yet when Rodgers played the offense he went from about the 10th best QB in the league to MVP.


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Identical personnel? So Tonyan caught 52 of 59 targets in 2020 for 11 TD is the same as Jimmy's 38/60 for 3 TDs?

Here's some Jimmy Graham dropped TD passes for you. The first is against the Lions in week 6.

Watch on YouTube

The other 2 dropped TD passes are against the Eagles. Because Adams is out and Rodgers has no-one else to throw to he attempts to hit Jimmy multiple times. Jimmy drops 2 TD passes in 4 plays, starts at 10:45 in the vid.

Watch on YouTube

[M-C-G]

Rodgers decline was largely Rodgers, yes. My point about Gute hiring MLF was that he obviously got the pick right given the 2020 performance once Rodgers bought in. Sorry you can’t see it.

I’ll summarize it for you, the personnel around Rodgers in 2020 was almost identical to the trash you think he had in 2019. Rodgers executing the offense is by far the biggest difference. Make what you will of that, but if MVS is your THREE is your biggest problem, then when MVS was the three this year and Rodgers was MVP how do you reconcile? It’s almost the identical guys on offense yet when Rodgers played the offense he went from about the 10th best QB in the league to MVP.


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Identical personnel? So Tonyan caught 52 of 59 targets in 2020 for 11 TD is the same as Jimmy's 38/60 for 3 TDs?

Here's some Jimmy Graham dropped TD passes for you. The first is against the Lions in week 6.

Watch on YouTube

The other 2 dropped TD passes are against the Eagles. Because Adams is out and Rodgers has no-one else to throw to he attempts to hit Jimmy multiple times. Jimmy drops 2 TD passes in 4 plays, starts at 10:45 in the vid.

Watch on YouTube

Was he on the roster? Yes. That’s the entire point. In its entirety.


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[HKPackFan]

https://deadspin.com/still-think-rodgers-couldve-run-it-in-1846942603

[M-C-G]

Devin White is fast. Rodgers would have scored a TD or gotten to the 2 yard line at worst.


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[sdn40]

trading him during the draft made a lot of sense. Trading him now doesnt make as much sense unless you get surtain + a hoard of picks over the next few years.

No - it didn't

WOAH, tone down the argument man!

If it was for that #3 pick, yeah, that was the time, depending on how likely you think it is he will be back in green bay. I think I was 75% sure he was out and now 50/50.

For the #3 pick and draft who exactly ?? Another over rated TE in Pitts ?? And check out what the Rodgers contract ramifications would have been. And trade him to an NFC team and worse yet S.F ?? Only xbox players think that would have been a good trade. In real life - not so much at all

[hege53190]

Ok, so you are answer is clear, you will not acknowledge any drop off in his play.

I could just as easily make the case there was enough talent and a good enough system around Rodgers to allow him to get to the 4000 yards with Adams missing 4 games.
Week 5 - Aaron Jones has 107 rushing 75 receiving and 4TD
Week 6 - just an ugly win
Week 7 - Rodgers goes for 429 and 5TD to 5 different guys
Week 8 - Rodgers goes for 300 and 3TD with the RB combining for 173 receiving with 3TD

So I am not buying this narrative he is dragging along a bunch of bums, there is talent there. What is hard for people to see is that this offense is so predicated on very specific roles to make it work, and you don't necessarily need a high end talent as much as you need a guy that perform that particular role at a high level. It is also why I was wrong when I yelled we need a high end WR in the previous years draft, turns out we didn't, turns out we had all the right role players on the roster and when you fit those together, you have more than enough talent, in this system.

After I said that Rodgers wasn't that bad and point to Yards, TDs and INTs even with terrible WRs. The you say he was because of this ridiculous "bad play" notion. Which I would love to see how and who grades this.

Did you now use Yards, TDs and INT's to prove that Aaron played well with his ass hat of WRs? What about the bad plays? I mean in the 4 games on 150 drop backs he had to have at least 60 right?

What a joke.

So RS gave you the calculation for Bad plays and you either didn't read it or you just didn't like it, so which was it? Thought it laid it out pretty clearly.

I am beginning to think you either have too many arguments going on or you just aren't trying to even consider what is being presented because you just don't want to change your opinion which would be fine,.

RS gave me the "bad play" stat for the entire season. Your argument is for those 4 weeks. You used Yards, TDs and INTs to make your argument. Something you trashed earlier. Throwing out this bad play argument.

Again what constitutes a bad play and who judges it. Something as simple as MVS's 2020 dropped passes was off by 75% based on who perceived what happened. Rodgers missing an open receiver? What constitutes an open receiver? Rodgers was off target? How far does a ball have to be off to be considered off-target? At the end of the day there are a million judgement call variables by some armchair QB or team of armchair QBs broken down into one all encompassing stat.

But I am supposed to take some random websites calculation as the definitive source on QB play. Maybe he found it on the same website that **** up something as simple as when Rodgers contract started.

Here is what I know. Aaron Rodgers was a 2 time LEAGUE WIDE MVP before those seasons. He was an MVP after those seasons. If you have to tell yourself he was on an unrecoverable decline in those seasons to justify managements decisions that led to the **** we find ourselves in now, then so be it.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I would have rode Rodgers until the wheels fell off but I've watched every game he's ever played and eye test wise he wasn't great in 2019. Hell that last game in Detroit was one of the worst games he's ever played. He was missing throws all game. Again it wasn't to the point where personally I would have moved on but I'm not sure how anyone could deny that he didn't exactly look sharp in 2019.

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[Reddeye]

Here is what I know. Aaron Rodgers was a 2 time LEAGUE WIDE MVP before those seasons. He was an MVP after those seasons. If you have to tell yourself he was on an unrecoverable decline in those seasons to justify managements decisions that led to the **** we find ourselves in now, then so be it.

Do you think Rodgers played well in 2018 and 2019?

Do you think MLF's offense and play calling should get much if any credit for Rodger's MVP season?

[Reddeye]

https://deadspin.com/still-think-rodgers-couldve-run-it-in-1846942603

I never thought he had a very good chance of running that in, but he would have gotten closer. MLF might have went for it if they were closer on 4th down. The percentages were about 50/50 for them to either go for it or kick the fg from where they were.

[hege53190]

Here is what I know. Aaron Rodgers was a 2 time LEAGUE WIDE MVP before those seasons. He was an MVP after those seasons. If you have to tell yourself he was on an unrecoverable decline in those seasons to justify managements decisions that led to the **** we find ourselves in now, then so be it.

Do you think Rodgers played well in 2018 and 2019?

Do you think MLF's offense and play calling should get much if any credit for Rodger's MVP season?

1.) Yes

2.) MLF had a good offensive scheme. Sure. It is good to play in an offensive system that makes a QBs job easier. I don't think MLF had some revolutionary offense.

I think it would be much easier to get Rodgers to play that well in a number of NFL systems than to find a QB that could duplicate what Rodgers did in MLFs system.

[sdn40]

Here is what I know. Aaron Rodgers was a 2 time LEAGUE WIDE MVP before those seasons. He was an MVP after those seasons. If you have to tell yourself he was on an unrecoverable decline in those seasons to justify managements decisions that led to the **** we find ourselves in now, then so be it.

Do you think Rodgers played well in 2018 and 2019?

Do you think MLF's offense and play calling should get much if any credit for Rodger's MVP season?

Grab a football and a hammer. Go outside. Hit your left knee with the hammer. Now throw the football. Let me know how that works for you