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Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2

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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#641 » by KillMonger » Sat May 22, 2021 5:57 pm

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Let's put some perspective.
Average points per game in college basketball 80 ppg

Average points per game in G league 108

There is almsot 30 additional points to be scored in competition where Kuminga played.

Attemping more threes per 36 min does not make him better shooter .Because he was beyond terrible shooter.

As far as assists go, Kuminga finsihed G league , 13 games played with 2,7 turnovers on 2,6 assists. We can pretend he was some amazing passer, but he simply wasn't.

Similarities are striking. 6'6 project that is elite athlete who can't shoot to save it's life, plays good defense but probably won't be difference maker in nba since he offers nothing on offense and it won't change for at least first couple of years.

Again, with Kuminga it's very clear. He will either learn how to shoot or be another Winslow, Johnson, Little, MKG, RHJ


Take off all the names for a second and think about it more like this.

Player X is 6'6". He very rarely handles the ball and looks awkward and uncomfortable when he's asked to do it. He doesn't take a lot of perimeter shots and struggles to make them when he's asked to take them. He's shown virtually no natural shot creation ability for anyone, himself included.

Player Y is also 6'6". He handles the ball all the time and he's ok at it. He shoots the ball all the time off screens and off the dribble, but struggles to make them. He's shown some ability to create good shots for himself off the dribble and for others with passing skill.

Who is going to have the more difficult transition to playing the wing full time in the NBA? Player X or Player Y?

To me personally, Player X is going to have a *much* more difficult time than Player Y because Player X has to learn how to do all these things period on top of actually improving those skills to an acceptable level. Player Y already knows how to do the things, has experience doing them, and just needs to refine and improve them.

That's what I feel about Kuminga compared to a lot of the other guys you mentioned. If he doesn't improve his jumper, then it's not going to matter. He won't make it.

But if he *does* improve his jumper, he'll be a very valuable wing because the rest of his skill set, from a ball handling, passing, vision, movement perspective, is very much that of a wing.

Hypothetically, if Nassir Little was a 40% catch and shoot 3PT guy, he'd still ultimately be a stretch PF because he doesn't have that tangible wing skill - ball handling, passing and just natural comfortability and fluidity with the basketball.

If Kuminga's jumper develops, he'll be an all-star IMO.

agreed, i believe in what i'm seeing from him that's why i'm so high on him....for me if it isn't cade or green i'm not taking anybody else over him
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#642 » by PrimeThyme » Sat May 22, 2021 6:00 pm

Knightro wrote:I think there's a subtle, but still significant difference between "this guy does X, Y and Z, but he doesn't do them well enough yet" and "this guy needs to learn how to do X, Y and Z period".

Kuminga handled the basketball in the bubble. He initiated pick and rolls. He hit cutters with passes. He led transition opportunities. He took jump shots off the dribble and off screens. He did all the things you see NBA wings do in the bubble.

Now to be clear, he doesn't do any of that stuff at a high enough level right now to be a positive contributor at the NBA level immediately, but he still does them and that is a key difference.

Take Jonathan Isaac as an example. Obviously he's taller than Kuminga, but he played MUCH more like a big man/power forward in college. He didn't do a whole lot of ball handling. Didn't do much shot creation for others. Didn't really do much shooting coming off screens or off movement. For the most part he was a play finishing big and there was theoretical hope he could do stuff on the wing.

Kuminga has already shown flashes at age 18 of two-way wing scoring and shot creation. He just needs to sharpen all of those skills to NBA caliber, which is no guarantee will happen. But certainly he doesn't look like a guy who played his whole life as a natural big and now needs to learn how to play on the wing because he's too small to be a big at the highest level.

The most important differentiating factor for me in today's NBA between a 3/4, is shooting. Plenty of 4's today can handle the ball and play make (Draymond/AG for example) but if you don't project as a shooter long-term you're going to slot in as a 4. I can't say that I watched any of his games this year, but in the highlights I have watched the vast majority of his offense is coming in transition, putbacks, && cuts to the basket.

He does do some nice things off the dribble, but 90% of the time it's a couple of dribbles then a spin to the basket to get something at the rim. He's not really actively looking to shoot off the dribble from 3 or from midrange. I think his ball-handling in general has a long way to go. Even the work he does in the midpost is nice, but that skillset is something I'm looking for more out of my 4's than 3's, && at his size I don't see it being as effective from the 4 spot.

I just see him as the classic tweener, who fans will be debating for years whether he will ever hone his skills and develop into a true small forward. I personally don't see it.

Flashes are nice, but with most of these guys it's just that and never develops into something sustained.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#643 » by Knightro » Sat May 22, 2021 6:02 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:[There is a lot to be excited about with Kuminga but he is not as polished as Cade, Suggs or Mobley and his archetype, as you suggest, is not as typically successful as Green.


I agree that he isn't as polished as those guys. But my counter to that would be - where would Kuminga be with 13 to 16 additional months of development?

Because that's how much younger he is than Cade (13 months) and Suggs/Mobley (16 months).

It's easy to forget that Kuminga is playing a year up of where he's supposed to be because he reclassified. He went straight into the G-League bubble rather than play an additional year of high school. He should be prepping for his one and done season of college basketball at Kentucky or Duke right now.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#644 » by Knightro » Sat May 22, 2021 6:36 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:The most important differentiating factor for me in today's NBA between a 3/4, is shooting. Plenty of 4's today can handle the ball and play make (Draymond/AG for example) but if you don't project as a shooter long-term you're going to slot in as a 4. I can't say that I watched any of his games this year, but in the highlights I have watched the vast majority of his offense is coming in transition, putbacks, && cuts to the basket.

He does do some nice things off the dribble, but 90% of the time it's a couple of dribbles then a spin to the basket to get something at the rim. He's not really actively looking to shoot off the dribble from 3 or from midrange. I think his ball-handling in general has a long way to go. Even the work he does in the midpost is nice, but that skillset is something I'm looking for more out of my 4's than 3's, && at his size I don't see it being as effective from the 4 spot.

I just see him as the classic tweener, who fans will be debating for years whether he will ever hone his skills and develop into a true small forward. I personally don't see it.

Flashes are nice, but with most of these guys it's just that and never develops into something sustained.


I just want to reiterate one thing. If Jonathan Kuminga does not improve his jumper, he will not succeed. You cannot be a terrible shooter and be a key piece on a good team in the current NBA. It just won't work.

Now that said...



My personal opinion, the number of NBA power forwards who can consistently make passes like the four in this video is significantly smaller than the number of power forwards who can hit an open jumper.

These are passes that NBA wings make.



The whole "attacking the rim" section of this video. The first four or five clips of him attacking the basket from a stationary position beyond the three point line. How many power forwards do that in the NBA right now? Not very many. Those are the kind of plays that good NBA wings makes.

Jonathan Kuminga is a wing that is not a good shooter right now.

He is *not* a power forward who needs to learn how to become a wing on top of improving as a shooter.

That is a key distinction to me. It's much more difficult IMO for a player that's never played full time on the wing to learn how to play full time on wing and develop his skills than it is for a natural wing to just develop his skills.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#645 » by GelbeWand09 » Sat May 22, 2021 6:49 pm

Knightro wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:[There is a lot to be excited about with Kuminga but he is not as polished as Cade, Suggs or Mobley and his archetype, as you suggest, is not as typically successful as Green.


I agree that he isn't as polished as those guys. But my counter to that would be - where would Kuminga be with 13 to 16 additional months of development?

Because that's how much younger he is than Cade (13 months) and Suggs/Mobley (16 months).

It's easy to forget that Kuminga is playing a year up of where he's supposed to be because he reclassified. He went straight into the G-League bubble rather than play an additional year of high school. He should be prepping for his one and done season of college basketball at Kentucky or Duke right now.



I agree but reality is too, that many of the youngest players of each draft, doesnt make a bigger jump in the leaque than the older players.

Youngest lottery pick 2018:
Jaren Jackson Jr is basically the same player he was in college (sure a lotta injuries but still disappointing)
Youngest lottery pick 2017:
Ntilikina - still end of bench guy without offense
Youngest lottery pick 2016:
Dragan Bender - now in europe
Youngest lottery pick 2015:
Devin Booker - best case scenario / but 2nd youngest Stanley Johnson
Youngest lottery pick 2014
AG is a better player but his shooting progress from College to the NBA is still not good enough to hit the leaque avg shooting %
Dante Exum - end of bench player
Bruno Caboclo - now in europe
Youngest lottery pick 2013
Giannis - poster boy of the draft potential scenario

All those players are ~ 1 year or more younger than the average rookie that year

I like Kuminga too but i woudnt be surprised if the older Mobley or Suggs or Green still make bigger improvements in there career than Kuminga, based on recent history.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#646 » by VFX » Sat May 22, 2021 7:32 pm

Can someone convince me that Kuminga isn’t another Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, or Josh Jackson?
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#647 » by KillMonger » Sat May 22, 2021 7:39 pm

MagicMatic wrote:Can someone convince me that Kuminga isn’t another Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, or Josh Jackson?

i'm thinking this is not so much a question more like a statement....or rhetorical....maybe your mind is already made up? the amount of info out there already? wouldn't need much convincing if those 3 players are the litmus....
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#648 » by zaymon » Sat May 22, 2021 7:51 pm

MagicMatic wrote:Can someone convince me that Kuminga isn’t another Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, or Josh Jackson?


Well Kuminga is worst shooter and defender of all of them as a prospect so maybe he isnt exactly like them.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#649 » by Knightro » Sat May 22, 2021 8:21 pm

MagicMatic wrote:Can someone convince me that Kuminga isn’t another Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, or Josh Jackson?


If his shooting doesn't develop, Kuminga will almost certainly be a bust relative to his draft position just like those guys were. He will probably be able to stick in the league even if he's a poor shooter, because all three guys you mentioned are still in the league, but the odds of him being a key player on a good team without shooting are pretty slim.

I just don't think he's going to measure out tall enough to be a starting PF on a good team. I also don't think he has a power forward's mentality or game. He plays like a guy most comfortable on the ball making things happen.

If his shooting does develop, there's no reason why Kuminga won't be the next Jaylen Brown/OG Anunoby/Jerami Grant. A well built, athletic two-way wing who defends, makes threes and creates shots for himself and others.

But those guys all took time. Brown didn't make his first all-star team until year 5. Anunoby topped 10 PPG for the first time in year 4. Grant didn't really break out until age 24.

All the other tools are there IMO. I've been very impressed by the flashes he's shown at such a young age.

Shooting is obviously the big swing skill. If it develops like it did for Brown (29% 3PT, 65% FT in college to 40% 3PT 76% FT in the NBA), Kuminga can be an all-star. If it doesn't, he will probably end up a guy who gets traded a few times and never really lives up to it.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#650 » by VFX » Sat May 22, 2021 8:41 pm

Knightro wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:Can someone convince me that Kuminga isn’t another Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, or Josh Jackson?


If his shooting doesn't develop, Kuminga will almost certainly be a bust relative to his draft position just like those guys were. He will probably be able to stick in the league even if he's a poor shooter, because all three guys you mentioned are still in the league, but the odds of him being a key player on a good team without shooting are pretty slim.

I just don't think he's going to measure out tall enough to be a starting PF on a good team. I also don't think he has a power forward's mentality or game. He plays like a guy most comfortable on the ball making things happen.

If his shooting does develop, there's no reason why Kuminga won't be the next Jaylen Brown/OG Anunoby/Jerami Grant. A well built, athletic two-way wing who defends, makes threes and creates shots for himself and others.

But those guys all took time. Brown didn't make his first all-star team until year 5. Anunoby topped 10 PPG for the first time in year 4. Grant didn't really break out until age 24.

All the other tools are there IMO. I've been very impressed by the flashes he's shown at such a young age.

Shooting is obviously the big swing skill. If it develops like it did for Brown (29% 3PT, 65% FT in college to 40% 3PT 76% FT in the NBA), Kuminga can be an all-star. If it doesn't, he will probably end up a guy who gets traded a few times and never really lives up to it.


That’s fair. I think Kuminga is definitely good enough to be in the league, as all three definitely are good enough to contribute.

Yeah I guess it comes down to whether or not you believe he can develop a reliable shot. Something Magic fans are all too aware of with previous draft picks on Forwards.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#651 » by RookieStar » Sat May 22, 2021 8:48 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:
Skin wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Who would be the 5th guy you'd pick over him?

Keon


You stand alone on this planet in this thinking. I’m sure you’re fine with that, just FYI.

I’m high on Keon AFTER the clear top 5 and would be happy to see him go to Orlando with the Chicago pick. Any talk him being ahead of Mobley, the top guards or even Kuminga is simply over-biased nonsense.


Yeah. Keon at #5? I mean if we are talking about pure SGs alone.. Obviously Green is #1 and if Moody can be classified as a SG instead of SF, then for me it's Moody Bouknight then Keon. Obviously in terms of hops, its Green then Keon followed by Bouknight then Moddy. However, in terms of shooting... which what I really prioritize in my wings... then Keon is the last.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#652 » by Knightro » Sat May 22, 2021 9:01 pm

MagicMatic wrote:That’s fair. I think Kuminga is definitely good enough to be in the league, as all three definitely are good enough to contribute.

Yeah I guess it comes down to whether or not you believe he can develop a reliable shot. Something Magic fans are all too aware of with previous draft picks on Forwards.


I'm certainly not a jump shot guru, but Kuminga's form appears to be much cleaner and more projectable than Scottie Barnes or Josh Giddey's. Those two look like they have broken shots.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#653 » by RookieStar » Sat May 22, 2021 9:37 pm

Oh yeah.. to those who are against Kispert because they think he is just another Duncan Robinson.. have you seen Duncan play in the POs? dude was saving MIA from Jimmy's bad game. I think he also did it last POs in the bubble.

Is that kind of player not worth our CHI pick?
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#654 » by Bensational » Sat May 22, 2021 10:27 pm

RookieStar wrote:Oh yeah.. to those who are against Kispert because they think he is just another Duncan Robinson.. have you seen Duncan play in the POs? dude was saving MIA from Jimmy's bad game. I think he also did it last POs in the bubble.

Is that kind of player not worth our CHI pick?


Absolutely not worth it. Duncan Robinson went undrafted. Joe Harris went late. Those guys can be found for cheap.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#655 » by Bensational » Sat May 22, 2021 10:30 pm

Knightro wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:That’s fair. I think Kuminga is definitely good enough to be in the league, as all three definitely are good enough to contribute.

Yeah I guess it comes down to whether or not you believe he can develop a reliable shot. Something Magic fans are all too aware of with previous draft picks on Forwards.


I'm certainly not a jump shot guru, but Kuminga's form appears to be much cleaner and more projectable than Scottie Barnes or Josh Giddey's. Those two look like they have broken shots.


It will be interesting to see how an NBA team develops Kuminga. If he doesn’t get major minutes and a big role because he’s too raw, he would have been better off going to college or staying in the G League to develop his skills in a featured role.

That’s why I like Dosunmo so much. He picked the option which allowed him to develop as the type of player he wants to be, and he showed he could do it.

With Kuminga, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has spent all his down time working on his outside shot and he starts next season looking entirely different on that front.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#656 » by RookieStar » Sat May 22, 2021 11:43 pm

Bensational wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Oh yeah.. to those who are against Kispert because they think he is just another Duncan Robinson.. have you seen Duncan play in the POs? dude was saving MIA from Jimmy's bad game. I think he also did it last POs in the bubble.

Is that kind of player not worth our CHI pick?


Absolutely not worth it. Duncan Robinson went undrafted. Joe Harris went late. Those guys can be found for cheap.


Well obviously i think if Harris and Robinsosn were to be drafted today, I think they would be worth the CHI pick? I mean put it this way, if MIA or BKN offered us both those players in a contract that's the same as the CHI pick for that pick, would you take it?

Yeah, but so many teams did try to find those guys nowadays but how many were successful in that? Aside from the obvious MIA and BKN of course lol
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#657 » by Bensational » Sat May 22, 2021 11:54 pm

RookieStar wrote:
Bensational wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Oh yeah.. to those who are against Kispert because they think he is just another Duncan Robinson.. have you seen Duncan play in the POs? dude was saving MIA from Jimmy's bad game. I think he also did it last POs in the bubble.

Is that kind of player not worth our CHI pick?


Absolutely not worth it. Duncan Robinson went undrafted. Joe Harris went late. Those guys can be found for cheap.


Well obviously i think if Harris and Robinsosn were to be drafted today, I think they would be worth the CHI pick? I mean put it this way, if MIA or BKN offered us both those players in a contract that's the same as the CHI pick for that pick, would you take it?

Yeah, but so many teams did try to find those guys nowadays but how many were successful in that? Aside from the obvious MIA and BKN of course lol


I just think it’s a really low bar to set for a draft spot which could attain the likes of Curry, Klay, Lillard, McCollum, Booker, SGA, Mitchell, Herro, etc etc, and instead settling for Doug McDermott or JJ Redick. Valuable role players, but we shouldn’t be looking for role players on a team that needs lead playmakers.

Guys like Seth Curry, Danny Green, Brooks, Ross, Ingles, Bogdanovic (x2), Forbes, Trent Jr - they’re all out there available for trade or affordable FA deals. They’re final addition pieces, brought in to compliment pieces that can already carry a team.

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good players, but I’d prefer to take a larger gamble on talent with higher ceiling potential in our first rebuild draft.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#658 » by RookieStar » Sun May 23, 2021 12:10 am

Bensational wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Absolutely not worth it. Duncan Robinson went undrafted. Joe Harris went late. Those guys can be found for cheap.


Well obviously i think if Harris and Robinsosn were to be drafted today, I think they would be worth the CHI pick? I mean put it this way, if MIA or BKN offered us both those players in a contract that's the same as the CHI pick for that pick, would you take it?

Yeah, but so many teams did try to find those guys nowadays but how many were successful in that? Aside from the obvious MIA and BKN of course lol


I just think it’s a really low bar to set for a draft spot which could attain the likes of Curry, Klay, Lillard, McCollum, Booker, SGA, Mitchell, Herro, etc etc, and instead settling for Doug McDermott or JJ Redick. Valuable role players, but we shouldn’t be looking for role players on a team that needs lead playmakers.

Guys like Seth Curry, Danny Green, Brooks, Ross, Ingles, Bogdanovic (x2), Forbes, Trent Jr - they’re all out there available for trade or affordable FA deals. They’re final addition pieces, brought in to compliment pieces that can already carry a team.

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good players, but I’d prefer to take a larger gamble on talent with higher ceiling potential in our first rebuild draft.


Ah yeah I understand. Context matters after all. Us right now can afford or even want to gamble our CHI pick be a budding allstar. If we were say a PO team trying to upgrade our roster to battle to the mid-top rank PO teams I think we would be fine with Kispert/Joe/Duncan pick even on the spot our CHI pick will land.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#659 » by MagicFan101 » Sun May 23, 2021 1:24 am

Knightro wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:[There is a lot to be excited about with Kuminga but he is not as polished as Cade, Suggs or Mobley and his archetype, as you suggest, is not as typically successful as Green.


I agree that he isn't as polished as those guys. But my counter to that would be - where would Kuminga be with 13 to 16 additional months of development?

Because that's how much younger he is than Cade (13 months) and Suggs/Mobley (16 months).

It's easy to forget that Kuminga is playing a year up of where he's supposed to be because he reclassified. He went straight into the G-League bubble rather than play an additional year of high school. He should be prepping for his one and done season of college basketball at Kentucky or Duke right now.


Yeah, I don’t disagree and again I’m still really high on Kuminga.

Still, if we land in the top 4 are you taking him over Cade, Suggs, Green or Mobley based on any of the projections you’re offering here?

I’m not.

I do however use everything you list as valid reasons to comfortably take Kuminga ahead of anyone else on this class outside those 4 without blinking an eye.
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Re: Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#660 » by Knightro » Sun May 23, 2021 1:26 am

My concern with Kispert is that his *best* case scenario is Duncan Robinson/Joe Harris caliber. What if he doesn't hit his best case scenario?

What happens if he's just Wayne Ellington or Reggie Bullock caliber? Then you just used a top 10 pick on a guy you can sign for less than $5M every offseason.

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