General Blue Jays Thread

[The_Hater]

Don't look now, but 538 currently has the Jays projected as the top run differential team in the AL East...

Ignoring all the pitching injuries, Springer has barely played and Jansen, Tellez and Gurriel have all been hitting at below replacement level.

Other then perhaps Vlade, who probably doesn’t fit here either, is there a single hitter on the team who has exceeded to the point where we should expect regression?

Maaaaaaaaybe Grichuk? If I had to choose somebody.

Teoscar's 300+ avg might be tough to maintain as well, but I feel like he's doing it sustainably.

Grichuck’s recent slump has dropped his OPS below 800 and more in line with the past 3 seasons.

And Teoscar isn’t going to hit .300, but he could keep his OPS around 850 when his power returns to the mean. And that still puts him 70 points behind last years career year.

I think this team, completely healthy, could finish top 2-3 in MLB in runs scored this season. They’ve already moved up to #6 after their terrible start.

[Randle McMurphy]

Grichuk is at a 119 wRC+. That's higher than usual for him and you'd probably expect it to decline a little, but he's produced a 115 wRC+ season as a Jay before (2018) and some of the projection systems think he'll go for a 115-119 wRC+ the rest of the way.

It's also hard to project Teoscar as a 130-140 wRC+ hitter (which he's been in 2020-2021) given his strikeout/walk numbers (which, while they have improved considerably, are still not those of an elite hitter). It really does feel the improvements are real, though. ZiPS has him going 128 wRC+ the rest of the way too.

The Jays offense, when healthy (with Springer and Kirk), is very likely the best in the league with only the Yankees really challenging them.

[bluerap23]

The depth in the lineup can also lead to improvements for Teoscar and Randall. You can't pitch around every one.

[vaff87]

Grichuk is at a 119 wRC+. That's higher than usual for him and you'd probably expect it to decline a little, but he's produced a 115 wRC+ season as a Jay before (2018) and some of the projection systems think he'll go for a 115-119 wRC+ the rest of the way.

It's also hard to project Teoscar as a 130-140 wRC+ hitter (which he's been in 2020-2021) given his strikeout/walk numbers (which, while they have improved considerably, are still not those of an elite hitter). It really does feel the improvements are real, though. ZiPS has him going 128 wRC+ the rest of the way too.

The Jays offense, when healthy (with Springer and Kirk), is very likely the best in the league with only the Yankees really challenging them.

It’s encouraging that since he returned from covid, in 74 PA, he has a 10.8 BB% and a 13.5 K%. His overall numbers in that category are mediocre because before he got sick, they were dreadful. But the post-covid sample size is more than double the pre-covid sample size, at this point.

[Aimless Outlook]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any further news on possible veteran free agent pitchers being looked at. It's been 3+ weeks since Anibal Sanchez was mentioned. Could he be temporary pitching filler to give Manoah more time in the minors?
Seems like there are a few stop gap options still available:
Anibal Sanchez
Rick Porcello
Cole Hamels
Homer Bailey
Maybe even Jeff Samardzija?

I get it that there could be a lack of funds to make a play like this, but with their current record and the offense starting to roll, maybe it's time to inject a bit more cash into the pitching so they don't rush their future pitching stars.

[bluerap23]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any further news on possible veteran free agent pitchers being looked at. It's been 3+ weeks since Anibal Sanchez was mentioned. Could he be temporary pitching filler to give Manoah more time in the minors?
Seems like there are a few stop gap options still available:
Anibal Sanchez
Rick Porcello
Cole Hamels
Homer Bailey
Maybe even Jeff Samardzija?

I get it that there could be a lack of funds to make a play like this, but with their current record and the offense starting to roll, maybe it's time to inject a bit more cash into the pitching so they don't rush their future pitching stars.

I doubt money is a factor as most of the options you listed would be very cheap. Problem is that they may not be any better than the other depth options in the organization.

[Schad]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any further news on possible veteran free agent pitchers being looked at. It's been 3+ weeks since Anibal Sanchez was mentioned. Could he be temporary pitching filler to give Manoah more time in the minors?
Seems like there are a few stop gap options still available:
Anibal Sanchez
Rick Porcello
Cole Hamels
Homer Bailey
Maybe even Jeff Samardzija?

I get it that there could be a lack of funds to make a play like this, but with their current record and the offense starting to roll, maybe it's time to inject a bit more cash into the pitching so they don't rush their future pitching stars.

Money isn't the issue with any of those pitchers, it's the fact that you wouldn't likely want them pitching. After a brief window where Annabelle suppressed power, he went back to getting rocked last year. Getting rocked has largely been his default state from 2015 on. Hole Camels is still coming back from injury, Homer Bailey's aiming to pitch in the Olympics rather than the majors, and Samardzija is just flat-out done.

Of that list, Porcello is really the only one worth considering, and even then you'd be looking at weeks of him getting up to speed...you couldn't just drop him in the rotation.

[Hoopstarr]

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[bluerap23]

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Nothing to see here.

Hatch made his first rehab start yesterday and was ok. Maybe he can help.

[polo007]

Rays offer glimpse into how Blue Jays could retool pitching staff - Sportsnet.ca

Still, even if Adames’ value was beginning to slip, he and righty Trevor Richards seem like a steep price for a pair of big-stuff bullpen arms, and may very well be indicative of how costly it will be for pitching-needy teams like the Blue Jays to get impact arms before the trade deadline.

There was certainly an immediate need-for-need element to the deal, helping lead to a rare May trade of consequence. But it’s hard to shake the feeling that clubs selling pitching this summer are positioned to enjoy Toronto-real-estate style bidding wars for their arms.

To that end, the more the Blue Jays can steady their rotation from within, the less they’ll have to dig into their stash of prospects to acquire the minimum one starter they need. Alek Manoah is top of mind right now, Thomas Hatch is building toward a return and Nate Pearson is going to factor, but Anthony Kay is very much in that mix, too.

Hatch, fellow right-handers Julian Merryweather, David Phelps and Patrick Murphy, and catcher Alejandro Kirk are all on the 60-day injured list and when they’re ready to come back, the Blue Jays will have to clear space on both the 26-man big-league roster, and the 40-man roster.

The depth they’ve leaned on to overcome the spate of injuries to dog them this season will be threatened at that point, and they’d do well to housekeep their 40-man roster.

Another chance to do that looms at the trade deadline, and worth watching is how they handle some of their prospects who will be Rule 5 eligible for the first time this fall, infielders Miguel Hiraldo and Leo Jimenez and righty Eric Pardinho prime among them.

The Rays, already, have flashed their trademark ability to be clever and calculated. For the Blue Jays, the time and opportunity to be just as cunning is coming.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Semien has definitely bounced back. He's getting a bit lucky at the plate, but if he does go on to have a 4-5 WAR season (which isn't a spectacularly high bar at this point) then he'll get paid in the offseason. I'd imagine that he'll be QOed, and while we'll probably try to re-sign him, it isn't the worst outcome if our $18m buys us a year of All-Star production and a comp pick.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

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[polo007]

Why adding to already-productive lineup should appeal to Blue Jays - Sportsnet.ca

Granted, on a team defined in large part by its emerging offensive core, the need for bats seems less urgent, especially at a time that the Blue Jays lead the American League in OPS. But there’s nothing wrong with building on a strength — or, in this case, addressing a weakness within a strength.

As Shapiro said, “There are multiple ways to improve.”

With the Blue Jays trailing by two runs in the ninth inning Wednesday, Reese McGuire stepped up to the plate with none on and none out. Traditionally, this is a clear pinch-hitting scenario as McGuire, a backup catcher with a lifetime .282 on-base percentage, is not the guy you want up when you need baserunners.

Yet the Blue Jays’ bench that day consisted of Jonathan Davis, Santiago Espinal and Danny Jansen, none of whom represented a significant offensive upgrade over McGuire in that moment. As such, manager Charlie Montoyo let McGuire hit, and he was rewarded with a single that led to an important rally.

But just as it’s important to separate good process from bad results, it’s worth untangling bad process from good results. Yes, McGuire deserves credit for what he did, and the results were undeniably good. Whether that’s sustainable is another question.

Ideally, the Blue Jays would have a better bench bat available later in the summer when they’re trailing late in games. And because bloated pitching staffs make it harder to carry many bench players, it’s that much more important to be sure the ones you do roster bring a distinct and valuable skillset. Like getting on base regularly, for instance, or hitting balls over the outfield wall.

Eventually, the likes of Springer and Cavan Biggio will return, strengthening the Blue Jays’ overall roster and pushing others to lesser roles. That would help. So too would a big-league breakthrough from a minor-leaguer like Otto Lopez or Kevin Smith. This improvement doesn’t have to come via trade. At the same time, it’s naive to expect further injuries won’t occur as the season progresses and perhaps overly hopeful to count on prospects to fill that void.

With that in mind, the Blue Jays should keep their eyes on veteran hitters who could deepen their offensive core. At first glance, left-handed hitters like Kyle Seager, Colin Moran, Joey Gallo and Kyle Schwarber appear to be some of the many hitters who could provide this kind of upgrade later in the summer. The asking price would be high on some of those players, but if nothing else, those possibilities would be worth exploring alongside the expected search for arms.

Because while pitching will likely be the main focus for the Blue Jays, there’s no reason they can’t work on two fronts at once. And seeking potential bench upgrades now sounds preferable to proceeding with a roster on which the backup catcher is the best late-inning on-base option available.

[polo007]

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[Parataxis]

Is Semien QO eligible in the offseason?

[Schad]

Is Semien QO eligible in the offseason?

Yep. We'll certainly QO him, and he'll definitely turn it down.

I'm sure we'll attempt to re-sign him, but there's probably a price point where we're better off taking the pick and going after pitching.

[The_Hater]

Is Semien QO eligible in the offseason?

Yep. We'll certainly QO him, and he'll definitely turn it down.

I'm sure we'll attempt to re-sign him, but there's probably a price point where we're better off taking the pick and going after pitching.

Plus he’s been so inconsistent at the plate over the years, sometimes you just have to feel fortunate that you were able to have him for that one big season and somebody else gets to overpay him for all the middling seasons to follow. Somewhere out there JP ricciardi is waiting with a $200 million offer for Semien.