[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Lakers

[falcolombardi]

i kinda see sark point

davis postseason, outlier shooting or not (for the record i am against discounting great seasons cause the player had "luck" in some way with their shooting oe whatever) was insane

he deserves some love at least in honorable mentions

[Colbinii]

If you got Lebron in your top 5, how do you not have Davis in your top 5 as well? They were basically a 1A/1B last year.

I have them as a clear 1 and 2 with a tier separating them.

Not sure how you have a full tier between them. Davis had the better regular season stats, and in the playoffs, he was the better player in 2 of the 4 series. It was really a 1A/1B year. After the first 2 games of the finals, many people thought that AD might win the FMVP. It wasn't until he had a bad game 3, that Lebron sealed the FMVP.

The team functioned in the regular season because of LeBron, not Anthony Davis. I like to think of the analogy of LeBron James being being an Army General and Anthony Davis being a army weapon. The weapon isn't going to do much in the hands of someone who is untrained and ultimately the weapon is most effective when put into a position where it can be maximized.

There is a reason the teams eFG% dropped from 55.3 with James to 51.9 without him (+3.4%) while the defense increases substantially with/without LeBron James. We have 15 years of data for LeBron and 5 years of Anthony Davis to support both of these claims--LeBron is routinely a more impactful defender and player. Hell, we saw this season that the Lakers, without Davis and with LeBron, were one of if not the best defensive team in the entire NBA.

Sure, go look at a couple of box-score statistics that rate Davis as similar or better than LeBron and draw conclusions to them--nobody is going to stop you.

Anthony Davis had a remarkable season in 2020, especially in the post-season. LeBron was just as good in the 2020 post-season as he has ever been. I dont see noticeable difference in LeBrons 2020 post-season from 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2009 or 2018 from an impact or level of play level. If what you are insinuating is true, you must also have Davis as a top 10 peak of all-time, similar to LeBron James, no?

[homecourtloss]

If you got Lebron in your top 5, how do you not have Davis in your top 5 as well? They were basically a 1A/1B last year.

I have them as a clear 1 and 2 with a tier separating them.

Not sure how you have a full tier between them. Davis had the better regular season stats, and in the playoffs, he was the better player in 2 of the 4 series. It was really a 1A/1B year. After the first 2 games of the finals, many people thought that AD might win the FMVP. It wasn't until he had a bad game 3, that Lebron sealed the FMVP.

Not impact wise—LeBron was the driver of their regular season success and was their best defensive player at the age of 35 while being the primary offense initiator which is pretty much unprecedented. Come to think of it, this is making me want to move LeBron up from the 4th I voted for.

2020 March 31st before the bubble:

LeBron On, AD off, 777 minutes: 113.5 ORtg, 103.0 DRtg, +10.3 [DRtg equivalent to 2nd best in the NBA], points differential equivalent to an all-time teams’.

AD ON, LeBron off, 572 minutes: 111.9 ORtg, 114.4 DRtg, -2.5 [DRtg equivalent to 28th in the NBA], points differential like that of a lottery team.

RPM:

James, +9.58 (6th on offense, 4th on defense; before the “formula change,” James had a historic RPM)
Davis, +2.53

RAPM:

James, +3.5 (5th overall, 32nd on offense, 4th on defense)
Davis, +.60 (130th overall, 240th on offense, 105 on defense)


2020 Lakers’ DRtg when player is on court:

THT: 111.2
Rondo: 107.3
KCP: 107.2
AD: 106.4
Howard: 106.4
Green: 106.0
McGee: 105.7
Kuzma: 105.2
Dion: 105.0
Bradley: 104.0
Morris: 103.4
Daniels: 102.7
Cook: 102.5
Caruso: 101.0
Dudley: 98.4

DRtgs for LeBron Pairs:

James + Cook: 90.8 (11.7 better with LeBron)
James + Rondo: 100.1 (7.2 better with LeBron)
James + Caruso: 95.1 (5.9 better with LeBron)
James + Kuzma: 99.8 (5.4 better with LeBron)
James + Davis: 103.2 (3.2 better with LeBron)
James + KCP: 104.2 (3.0 better with LeBron)
James + Howard: 104.5 (1.9 better with LeBron)
James + Green: 104.7 (1.3 better with LeBron)
James + Bradley: 103.1 (.9 better with LeBron)
James + Morris: 102.5 (.9 better with LeBron)
James + McGee: 105.2 (.7 better with LeBron)
James + Daniels: 102.6 (.1 better with LeBron)
James + Dudley: 102.1 (3.7 worse with LeBron)

[LukaTheGOAT]

Glad to finally participate. Thanks for inviting me Odinn.

1. 2000 Shaq-Top 3 Peak of all-time. Scored on more volume but less efficiency (relative to era) than Kareem. Him and Kareem are about the same level as defenders I think, but Shaq benefits from playing in the 3 point era. He led better offenses in part because when he would get double teamed, he could kick out to shooters to 3 pointers for extra points, while Kareem was forced to kick it out to shooters for only 2 points (no 3 point line).

2. 1977 Kareem- Top 5 peak ever. Top 3 scoring PS run of all-time. Great defensive anchor. He is lower to Shaq quite possibly due to playing in an era with no 3 point line, and therefore he didn't quite have the same spacing. Him and Shaq are very similar in review.

3. 1987 Magic-Honestly, I’m not certain if he should be ahead of West, but Magic’s floor-raising exploits in 88 and 89 gave me more confidence putting Magic this high. Even as his offensive cast got older, Magic continued to churn out elite offenses, and his teams were able to get more separation from the pack in terms of relative offense compared to West.

4. 1966 Jerry West -Surprise to some, but simply just justice to me. There are multiple years you can pick from, but simply put, this is a top 6 scorer ever going to work at his peak. Think of him as Stephen Curry with all-nba level defense at his position, but without the 3 point line to bolster his volume and efficiency even more. The thing is, West still comes away to me looking as a better scorer. The real question for me, is just how valuable was his playmaking because since the game was much less spaced, there were less opportunities available to be created and therefore pinpointing is exact offensive value is a bit tricky. West was in an era not favorable for guards; if he comes around later. If he comes around later, West likely would’ve benefitted an peaked higher than 87 Magic. They are close nonetheless and it should also be noted that West is more portable than magic. West is one of the few superstars ever to IMPROVE their scoring in the PS Backpicks GOAT: #17 Jerry West | Back Picks

5. 2020 Lebron-Idk what to make of 2020 Lebron. I can see him being above Magic and the metrics we have would support putting him ahead of Magic in terms of PS performance. Backpicks BPM, PIPM, RAPTOR (and by the same metrics could compete with Shaq and Kareem). However, as santerre mentioned, his RS to me is well below that of Magic’s. Idk how much I should glean from that, especially since he was going half speed. However, I’ll be conservative and put him lower, because I just wonder how his scoring might due against tougher defenses. He fried Miami who was great in the PS, but then there were series like Houston and Denver where he was good but maybe not otherworldly, but once again I wonder how much he was challenged. I also believe there could be things that Magic does as a facilitator that are less likely to be picked up in the box-score. The 3-5 range here is arguable to me.

06/08/09 Kobe is someone I could see in the #5 spot in place of Lebron. But in the end, he missed the cut.

Excellent post all-around, I do have one question though. Why do you think that Shaq was on the same level defensively as 1977 Kareem?

Thank you. I know Shaq's defense can be contentious, but there are a few reasons why I think they are around similar levels.

1)First of all I enjoyed the Greatest Peaks series by Thinking Basketball, and I think he prevents a persuasive case for why they are around the same level at their peaks.

2) While it is fair to say these numbers can be funky, statistically they don't look that different on a per-possession basis.
2000 Shaq
D-RAPTOR-3.16
DPIPM-3.02

1977 Kareem
D-RAPTOR-3.10
D-PIPM-2.86

3) Next it is just the eytest. Shaq came around at THE PERFECT time for his game, offensively maybe, but definitely defensively. The dead ball era had a lack of bigs stretching out to 3 and Shaq could often sag in the paint area without being beat. Defensively, I think he was a good man defender with his strength and absurd length and he could protect the rim well enough too. The numbers thinking basketball shows in regards to Shaq defending the rim is noteworthy, and paints him in a bright light.

4) I don't think 77 Kareem is his peak defensively. I think earlier Bucks Kareem was just outright more athletic, had a higher motor on defense, and could get to more things. Kareem's defensive peak is better than Shaq's defensive peak though, I just don't believe it was in 1977.

5)Theory-Shaq was much more inconsistent on D throughout his career than Kareem. But I feel like 2000 was the year it came all together for Shaq. After getting whopped pretty convincingly by the Spurs in 99, I think Shaq came back with a different mentality and it showed on defense. Also, Shaq indirectly made opponent team's offenses worse because other teams would often unskilled bigs in the game to try and guard him. This actually hurt the team's offenses, but probably improved the defenses. In this way Shaq acts a deterrent because you can't always have your best offensive bigs out there, because of them having to matchup with Shaq. This is perhaps a minor thing to note, but something to take note of nonetheless.

Overall, I think 77 Kareem very possibly is better than Shaq on D. However, I do still come away feeling they are in the same ballpark defensively. I might be unfair, because it seems easier to evaluate offensive more precisely than defense. Like Kareem had more versatility, and better awareness on D than Shaq, but at the same time, because of the era Shaq played in, I feel like he lucked out a bit. Like Shaq didn't always have to have the ability in those characteristics because he got to sit in the paint more, and in that way he was fortunate. If you did time travel, to like today for instance, I'm sure the difference between 77 Kareem and Shaq would be much more noticeable, with things favoring Kareem.

[ZeppelinPage]

Thank you. I know Shaq's defense can be contentious, but there are a few reasons why I think they are around similar levels.

1)First of all I enjoyed the Greatest Peaks series by Thinking Basketball, and I think he prevents a persuasive case for why they are around the same level at their peaks.

2) While it is fair to say these numbers can be funky, statistically they don't look that different on a per-possession basis.
2000 Shaq
D-RAPTOR-3.16
DPIPM-3.02

1977 Kareem
D-RAPTOR-3.10
D-PIPM-2.86

3) Next it is just the eytest. Shaq came around at THE PERFECT time for his game, offensively maybe, but definitely defensively. The dead ball era had a lack of bigs stretching out to 3 and Shaq could often sag in the paint area without being beat. Defensively, I think he was a good man defender with his strength and absurd length and he could protect the rim well enough too. The numbers thinking basketball shows in regards to Shaq defending the rim is noteworthy, and paints him in a bright light.

4) I don't think 77 Kareem is his peak defensively. I think earlier Bucks Kareem was just outright more athletic, had a higher motor on defense, and could get to more things. Kareem's defensive peak is better than Shaq's defensive peak though, I just don't believe it was in 1977.

5)Theory-Shaq was much more inconsistent on D throughout his career than Kareem. But I feel like 2000 was the year it came all together for Shaq. After getting whopped pretty convincingly by the Spurs in 99, I think Shaq came back with a different mentality and it showed on defense. Also, Shaq indirectly made opponent team's offenses worse because other teams would often unskilled bigs in the game to try and guard him. This actually hurt the team's offenses, but probably improved the defenses. In this way Shaq acts a deterrent because you can't always have your best offensive bigs out there, because of them having to matchup with Shaq. This is perhaps a minor thing to note, but something to take note of nonetheless.

Overall, I think 77 Kareem very possibly is better than Shaq on D. However, I do still come away feeling they are in the same ballpark defensively. I might be unfair, because it seems easier to evaluate offensive more precisely than defense. Like Kareem had more versatility, and better awareness on D than Shaq, but at the same time, because of the era Shaq played in, I feel like he lucked out a bit. Like Shaq didn't always have to have the ability in those characteristics because he got to sit in the paint more, and in that way he was fortunate. If you did time travel, to like today for instance, I'm sure the difference between 77 Kareem and Shaq would be much more noticeable, with things favoring Kareem.

I agree. Shaq actually looks pretty good on defense from the early 2000s film I've watched. I think while the era suited him more, he is generally underrated on that side of the ball when compared to other centers.

[Doctor MJ]

1. '99-00 Shaquille O'Neal

2. '86-87 Magic Johnson

3. '79-80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

4. '65-66 Jerry West

5. '19-20 LeBron James

I went into this from previous analyses with Shaq as the clear #1. Much less clear to me now - with good points made by people here - but I'm not ready to switch my vote.

I'm a bit surprised people are so quick to put 35-year-old LeBron over 27-year-old Magic. The post-season last year goes very different if AD isn't such a defensive eraser. I'm sure Magic would have loved to play with a big man defender like that at some point in his time on the Lakers. There's also the matter that everything broke just right for the Lakers last year. They didn't play anyone real until the Conference Finals, then played one of the few teams where it makes sense to have AD play the 4 against, making their lineup imbalance a strength rather than a weakness, then played a plucky underdog that was always playing from behind.

I'm going to give Kareem the next spot. I've never felt comfortable with Kareem over Shaq by peak. What I'll say is that their styles are so different it's pretty understandable for people to side either way, and no matter how you look at it, a guy Kareem's size with a similar capacity for skill-building is incredibly special.

All that said, I was tempted to have West higher. The man was an absolute monster. The thing that's tough here is that I think West translates particularly well today, but back when he played, your top tier big men always seemed to have the edge. And in fact, '71-72 Wilt has a serious case over peak West (which incidentally, is hard to settle on a year for, but I also wanted to give '67-68 & '69-70 shout outs).

5th spot LeBron. I really do get feeling compelled to put him super-high given that he seems at times to have lost nothing significant with ages, and his old man game gets stronger year by year. Also if you're really generous for giving credit to establishing culture, there's no doubt that LeBron deserves some credit for this last year. Still, it's not like we didn't see him stumble in ways we often seem older veterans stumble.

[Max123]

1. '99-00 Shaquille O'Neal

2. '86-87 Magic Johnson

3. '79-80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

4. '65-66 Jerry West

5. '19-20 LeBron James

I went into this from previous analyses with Shaq as the clear #1. Much less clear to me now - with good points made by people here - but I'm not ready to switch my vote.

I'm a bit surprised people are so quick to put 35-year-old LeBron over 27-year-old Magic. The post-season last year goes very different if AD isn't such a defensive eraser. I'm sure Magic would have loved to play with a big man defender like that at some point in his time on the Lakers. There's also the matter that everything broke just right for the Lakers last year. They didn't play anyone real until the Conference Finals, then played one of the few teams where it makes sense to have AD play the 4 against, making their lineup imbalance a strength rather than a weakness, then played a plucky underdog that was always playing from behind.

I'm going to give Kareem the next spot. I've never felt comfortable with Kareem over Shaq by peak. What I'll say is that their styles are so different it's pretty understandable for people to side either way, and no matter how you look at it, a guy Kareem's size with a similar capacity for skill-building is incredibly special.

All that said, I was tempted to have West higher. The man was an absolute monster. The thing that's tough here is that I think West translates particularly well today, but back when he played, your top tier big men always seemed to have the edge. And in fact, '71-72 Wilt has a serious case over peak West (which incidentally, is hard to settle on a year for, but I also wanted to give '67-68 & '69-70 shout outs).

5th spot LeBron. I really do get feeling compelled to put him super-high given that he seems at times to have lost nothing significant with ages, and his old man game gets stronger year by year. Also if you're really generous for giving credit to establishing culture, there's no doubt that LeBron deserves some credit for this last year. Still, it's not like we didn't see him stumble in ways we often seem older veterans stumble.

Could you maybe elaborate a bit on having Magic over Kareem here because for most people they seem to almost be in different tiers?


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[Jaivl]

Gotta go so I can't write right now but I leave my votes:

1) 2000 Shaquille O'Neal (+6.60)
2) 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (+6.50) (underrated?)
3) 1987 Magic Johnson (+6.25)
4) 2020 LeBron James (+6.00)
5) 1966 Jerry West (+5.75)

HM: 2008 Kobe. LOADED FRANCHISE. CHEATERS.

Shaq led the #1 defense in 2000 being the only starter with a positive d-on/off. Yeah, I'll buy arguments against Shaq's defense nearly any other year, but strong + huge + focused on the year 2000 is more than enough. Does the "anti-Shaq" meta of plodding, unskilled centers let him succeed without elite, or even very good, defensive instincts? Maybe.

Spoiler:

13 out of the top 15 DRAPMs that year are bigs, plus noted defender George Lynch and... Derek Fisher(!? sub-94 on-court DRtg... huh?). In the 2010s it's more like 8-10 out of 15, and nowadays it's more like... 5 or so.

Even then, Shaq is probably a top-10ish defender that year while Kareem is probably a top-3ish one (having less top-tier competition, but Kareem's better anyway). Prime Shaq has a long, long story of catapulting offenses to the sky, but so does Kareem*. I feel the main advantage of Shaq is that his era allowed him to have a bigger amount of impact. Kareem can't really collapse defenses to the same degree because the defense is already pretty collapsed to begin with.

*Disagree with Kareem not leaving GOAT-ish impact imprints, by the way. His teams always have top tier eFG% and turnover economy that flows with his presence/absence like Russell's Celtics' defenses, and even the 1977 Lakers, with a very weak guard rotation, manage a great turnover economy thanks to the ingenious gameplan of "get the ball to Kareem, get out of the way". His teams' drops when he's injured (the 75 Milwaukee sample is Garnett-like levels of ridiculous) are catastrophic.

I'm almost convincing myself to vote Kareem #1. In the year 2000 Kareem is probably better. But oh well.

West is a monster. Slightly over Kobe because he's a better defender. Absurd franchise.

Re: LeBron. Nah. He played 3/4 of the season at 3/4 speed. And that's a luxury you can only get away with when you're LeBron James and play on the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers (or in the late 10s East lol). And... he didn't exactly put the world on fire on the postseason, by GOAT standards? The Lakers were... good-ish, against meh teams, while having another +5 player, and with the opposition getting injured at every turn. LeBron impresses because he's been doing that stuff for +12 years and he makes it look so easy, not because he managed unparallelled results. Peak LeBron covers more ground on defense, scores better (white-hot Finals LeBron scored at about the same efficiency than normal peak LeBron), mercilessly abuses those weak frontlines and the Lakers sweep a couple series. Peak LeBron was doing that to MUCH better teams.

And Magic does Magic things, or something. 1987 because athleticism > rudimentary late 80s spacing.

[Odinn21]

Thank you. I know Shaq's defense can be contentious, but there are a few reasons why I think they are around similar levels.

1)First of all I enjoyed the Greatest Peaks series by Thinking Basketball, and I think he prevents a persuasive case for why they are around the same level at their peaks.

2) While it is fair to say these numbers can be funky, statistically they don't look that different on a per-possession basis.
2000 Shaq
D-RAPTOR-3.16
DPIPM-3.02

1977 Kareem
D-RAPTOR-3.10
D-PIPM-2.86

I agree. Shaq actually looks pretty good on defense from the early 2000s film I've watched. I think while the era suited him more, he is generally underrated on that side of the ball when compared to other centers.

Shaq was indeed an elite defender in 2000. Especially in the regular season. He led the Lakers to a -5.9 rDRtg.
I think it's worth noting that the Lakers defense suffered in the playoffs. They had +1.1 rDRtg on overall. In the first 2 rounds against average offensive teams in Sacramento and Phoenix, the Lakers had -2.1 rDRtg. In the last 2 rounds, Portland and Indiana teams were in the top 3 ORtg in the regular season and the Lakers had +3.6 rORtg against them. Especially the structure of Pacers offense made us see how defense relying on Shaq can be exploited.

Now, in a comparison to Kareem, these numbers are not something available for Kareem. But I think it's safe to be critical of Shaq's defensive impact.

To me, both were better defender than their reputations, however Kareem is more so than Shaq.

[McBubbles]

For the people that're voting Lebron as the numero uno Lakers peak, whilst the regular season is less important than the post season, I think the difference between 2020 Lebron and 2000 Shaq or 1987 Magic in the RS is too big for the regular season to basically be discounted. Furthermore the competition that 2000 Shaq and 1977 Kareem faced in the PS pooped on 2020 Lebron's, whilst Kareem also had vastly inferior teammates in combination with better competition. If you're solely focused on performance and performance only with a very very high focus on the post season then Lebron has an argument for 2nd behind Kareem imo, but if you factor in regular season and strength of competition in the PS I don't know how you can put Lebron above 2000 Shaq, 1977 Kareem or even 66 West.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Thank you. I know Shaq's defense can be contentious, but there are a few reasons why I think they are around similar levels.

1)First of all I enjoyed the Greatest Peaks series by Thinking Basketball, and I think he prevents a persuasive case for why they are around the same level at their peaks.

2) While it is fair to say these numbers can be funky, statistically they don't look that different on a per-possession basis.
2000 Shaq
D-RAPTOR-3.16
DPIPM-3.02

1977 Kareem
D-RAPTOR-3.10
D-PIPM-2.86

I agree. Shaq actually looks pretty good on defense from the early 2000s film I've watched. I think while the era suited him more, he is generally underrated on that side of the ball when compared to other centers.

Shaq was indeed an elite defender in 2000. Especially in the regular season. Shaq led the Lakers to a -5.9 rDRtg.
I think it's worth noting that the Lakers defense suffered in the playoffs. They had +1.1 rDRtg on overall. In the first 2 rounds against average offensive teams in Sacramento and Phoenix, the Lakers had -2.1 rDRtg. In the last 2 rounds, Portland and Indiana teams were in the top 3 ORtg in the regular season and the Lakers had +3.6 rORtg against them. Especially the structure of Pacers offense made us see how defense relying on Shaq can be exploited.

Now, in a comparison to Kareem, these numbers are not something available for Kareem. But I think it's safe to be critical of Shaq's defensive impact.

To me, both were better defender than their reputations, however Kareem is more so than Shaq.

That's a fair point. I wish PBP stats had on on/off for the 2000 season but it only goes back to 01. Still I believe we can glean something from this.

In the 01 PS, the Lakers had a 96.98 Def Rating with Shaq on and a 100.51 Def rating with him off. It is a small sample size, but it is suggestive of the idea that Shaq was important to a relatively strong defense and that SHaq is still notably valuable in the PS.

In the 2000 PS, Shaq had a 4% block rate. Also from his Backpicks write-up "There is evidence that Shaq was a strong man defender; from 1998-2003, All-Star centers scored at 3.6 percentage points worse (in true shooting) when they faced him versus when they played the rest of the league.11 For comparison, this is comparable to how Dikembe Mutombo performed against All-Star centers during his defensive prime from 1992-98, although Mutombo faced a far more offensively-inclined group, including Shaq himself."

Kareem is the case of someone who might benefit from more data, but from what I can glean, Shaq has a case for a weak DPOY in a random year.

[Odinn21]

That's a fair point. I wish PBP stats had on on/off for the 2000 season but it only goes back to 01. Still I believe we can glean something from this.

There's this one thing I want to point out before going any further. These numbers are available on Basketball-Reference.com
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2000/on-off/
I find BBRef on/off numbers to be wonky and sometimes directly off.

I've found out NBA.com's tracked possession numbers to be more accurate and precise. NBA.com does not provide on/off swing numbers directly for before 2007-08 season but there's a simple way to calculate it.
An example directly related to our topic;
https://on.nba.com/3oUw5KV
The Lakers had 96.4 DRtg in 1999-00 regular season. They had 95.04 pace over 3961 minutes.
Shaq had 96.2 DRtg in 1999-00 regular season. The team had 94.28 pace over 3165 minutes Shaq played.
We can calculate for Shaq's off numbers quite comfortably.
[ ( Team DRtg * Team pace * team minutes ) - ( On Drtg * On pace * On minutes ) ] / [ ( Team pace * team minutes ) - ( On pace * on minutes ) ]
When we put numbers in their places, it's;
[ ( 96.4 * 95.04 * 3961 ) - ( 96.2 * 94.28 * 3165) ] / [ ( 95.04 * 3961 ) - ( 94.28 * 3165 ) ] = 97.2
When Shaq was off the court, the Lakers had 97.2 DRtg. Making his on/off swing -1.0.

The accuracy of this method, despite the Rtg numbers do not having the 2nd decimal, is quite high. When I ran these numbers with calculating Rtg numbers from scratch with playtime, points scored and allowed, and total possessions, instead of their presented Rtg numbers on the page, the results with those calculated Rtg numbers still stayed within 0.1 range.

It's too time consuming to create a database with these because it's not easy to extract numbers from NBA.com, but for specific examples like this Shaq's on/off swing in 2000, this is fairly easy to do.
Also, there's one upside in using NBA.com numbers, we can see single series numbers with this calculation since we can single out specific series or time frames.

In the 01 PS, the Lakers had a 96.98 Def Rating with Shaq on and a 100.51 Def rating with him off. It is a small sample size, but it is suggestive of the idea that Shaq was important to a relatively strong defense and that SHaq is still notably valuable in the PS.

In the 2000 PS, Shaq had a 4% block rate. Also from his Backpicks write-up "There is evidence that Shaq was a strong man defender; from 1998-2003, All-Star centers scored at 3.6 percentage points worse (in true shooting) when they faced him versus when they played the rest of the league.11 For comparison, this is comparable to how Dikembe Mutombo performed against All-Star centers during his defensive prime from 1992-98, although Mutombo faced a far more offensively-inclined group, including Shaq himself."

Kareem is the case of someone who might benefit from more data, but from what I can glean, Shaq has a case for a weak DPOY in a random year.

Shaq took away fg% from his matchups, he also made it tougher guards and wings to get into the paint. But he was quite uncomfortable with leaving the restricted area and it was not hard to force him out of his comfort zone. That's what the Pacers did in the Finals basically. Even though Shaq had a decent on/off swing against them, his on DRtg alone was in +6 rDRtg territory for instance.

In general, Shaq's main issue on defense was his inconsistency. If he had maintained his 2000 defensive performance in 2001, the Lakers would've done better in the regular season.

As for Kareem, if DPoY existed in his prime, I'd expect him to get a couple or a few. Peak Shaq was a weak DPoY level player, I'd probably agree with that. Kareem, otoh, was an average to relatively decent DPoY calibre player. Not like a strong / an elite one as Hakeem or Deke. Better than Shaq. His rim protection instincts and awareness were better, he was more consistent. Just a more complete package.

[Odinn21]

The Lakers results;

Code: Select all

1. 6-6-1-1-0 / 110 points / 0.786 share / '00 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 6-5-3-0-0 / 110 points / 0.786 share / '77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. 0-2-8-3-0 /  63 points / 0.450 share / '87 Magic Johnson
4. 2-1-1-4-2 /  46 points / 0.329 share / '20 LeBron James
5. 0-0-1-5-5 /  25 points / 0.179 share / '66 Jerry West

6. 0-0-0-1-3 /   6 points / 0.043 share / '08 Kobe Bryant
7. 0-0-0-0-3 /   3 points / 0.021 share / '72 Wilt Chamberlain
8. 0-0-0-0-1 /   1 points / 0.007 share / '49 George Mikan

Results on Google Sheet

[HeartBreakKid]

Ah crap, I was going to switch my 1st place vote to Kareem. Seems like that would have made the difference.

[Doctor MJ]

Could you maybe elaborate a bit on having Magic over Kareem here because for most people they seem to almost be in different tiers?


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So, I suppose you might say I'm a bit of a Kareem impact skeptic. It's not that I don't think his impact was very big, but when it comes to offensive impact, I'm skeptical that he should be in the same league as Magic. I think Kareem is a guy who does his thing, and does it very well, but isn't someone who really is always find ways to attack the defense well with the other 80% of the team on the floor.

Some have tried to use the term ceiling-raiser for Kareem to imply that while he may not be able to raise floors do to his dependence on perimeter ball handlers, he's the perfect cherry on top to make a very good offense truly top notch, but I would not feel comfortable saying that.

I do think he gives you a very nice iso option that can be placed alongside a more passing-oriented attack...but I also think it's pretty clear that there are players who can both lead the passing attack and punish the defense one-on-one, and I think Magic really demonstrated he was able to do that quite well in the late '80s...and I don't really think there's much reason to think he couldn't have gotten there sooner if that's what his team needed from him.

That doesn't make it a lock that Peak Magic > Peak Laker Kareem, particularly because in the years Kareem is under serious consideration here, he's got a sizable edge on defense, but hopefully that makes clear why I see the case for Magic.

[70sFan]

If 1977 isn't the prime example of ATG floor raising, then nothing is. Seriously, I don't understand how people can take for granted what Lakers achieved in 1977 with their roster. This team sucked and they lost two starters in playoffs (Allen was injured).

Kareem led Lakers to basically the same record as Blazers with healthy Walton (53 wins vs 55 wins pace, though Blazers were clearly better in terms of SRS). Lakers finished with the best record in the league. It was truly 2009-Cavs esque carryjob.

Then they beat very strong Warriors team in the first round, while Kareem had one of the greatest performances in NBA history -not just in terms of raw production. When you watch games from that series, he looks even better than his stats suggest. Then he kept dominating against Walton and much better Blazers team. If you doubt that Lakers were that bad, watch these games again (we have three of four available) instead of looking at names.

His ceilling raising ability is even easier to explain. Just look how dominant these 1970s Bucks teams were. I can't understand how anybody can doubt Jabbar's impact at his peak. Maybe it's because there isn't much footage available...

[Odinn21]

Ah crap, I was going to switch my 1st place vote to Kareem. Seems like that would have made the difference.

If you had switched your vote from LeBron/Kareem/Shaq/West/Wilt from Kareem/LeBron/Shaq/West/Wilt, Kareem would tie with Shaq for the most points but would stay as the 2nd because Kareem would have 6/5/3/0/0 distribution and Shaq has 6/6/1/1/0 distribution and our tiebreaker is more top placements.

I can update your vote if you're certain Kareem being #1 on your ballot, our rankings will stay the same unless you're thinking of dropping Shaq down a bit further.

[HeartBreakKid]

Ah crap, I was going to switch my 1st place vote to Kareem. Seems like that would have made the difference.

If you had switched your vote from LeBron/Kareem/Shaq/West/Wilt from Kareem/LeBron/Shaq/West/Wilt, Kareem would tie with Shaq for the most points but would stay as the 2nd because Kareem would have 6/5/3/0/0 distribution and Shaq has 6/6/1/1/0 distribution and our tiebreaker is more top placements.

I can update your vote if you're certain Kareem being #1 on your ballot, our rankings will stay the same unless you're thinking of dropping Shaq down a bit further.

Yeah, I will switch my vote.

1) Kareem
2) Lebron

Kareem's post season is more tested against elite defenses than the other two big candidates imo. (00 Blazers ain't chop liver, but I do think Kareem 'played better' against his opposition)

[Odinn21]

Ah crap, I was going to switch my 1st place vote to Kareem. Seems like that would have made the difference.

If you had switched your vote from LeBron/Kareem/Shaq/West/Wilt from Kareem/LeBron/Shaq/West/Wilt, Kareem would tie with Shaq for the most points but would stay as the 2nd because Kareem would have 6/5/3/0/0 distribution and Shaq has 6/6/1/1/0 distribution and our tiebreaker is more top placements.

I can update your vote if you're certain Kareem being #1 on your ballot, our rankings will stay the same unless you're thinking of dropping Shaq down a bit further.

Yeah, I will switch my vote.

1) Kareem
2) Lebron

Kareem's post season is more tested against elite defenses than the other two big candidates imo.

You had 1979 as your preference of Kareem version on your ballot. I'd also assume you're talking about 1977 in here?

[HeartBreakKid]

If you had switched your vote from LeBron/Kareem/Shaq/West/Wilt from Kareem/LeBron/Shaq/West/Wilt, Kareem would tie with Shaq for the most points but would stay as the 2nd because Kareem would have 6/5/3/0/0 distribution and Shaq has 6/6/1/1/0 distribution and our tiebreaker is more top placements.

I can update your vote if you're certain Kareem being #1 on your ballot, our rankings will stay the same unless you're thinking of dropping Shaq down a bit further.

Yeah, I will switch my vote.

1) Kareem
2) Lebron

Kareem's post season is more tested against elite defenses than the other two big candidates imo.

You had 1979 as your preference of Kareem version on your ballot. I'd also assume you're talking about 1977 in here?

Yeah