Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th

[Knightro]

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[Knightro]

If my math is correct...

20.2% chance of losing the pick via Chicago hitting the draft lottery.

34.5% chance of 8th pick
36.2% chance of 9th pick
8.5% chance of 10th pick
0.5% chance of 11th pick
Less than >0.0 of 12th pick

[zaymon]

Lol i knew bulls were going to win. Thats how universe is working, they dont need it at all :p Great for us. We propably got the best case scenario available. Unbelievable.

[PrimeThyme]

There is obviously a glass half empty and a glass half full way to look at this. I'd probably have preferred them to slot in at 10th. We're going to need some significant luck on June 22 regardless. An absolute nightmare scenario is potentially on the horizon.

[ogmagicfan]

There is obviously a glass half empty and a glass half full way to look at this. I'd probably have preferred them to slot in at 10th. We're going to need some significant luck on June 22 regardless. An absolute nightmare scenario is potentially on the horizon.

From my understanding, the Bulls getting 10th in the coin toss would’ve resulted in them having the same chance at getting a top 4 pick (20.5%) as if they got 8th.

This is a win for the Magic.

[Knightro]

There is obviously a glass half empty and a glass half full way to look at this. I'd probably have preferred them to slot in at 10th. We're going to need some significant luck on June 22 regardless. An absolute nightmare scenario is potentially on the horizon.

From my understanding, the Bulls getting 10th in the coin toss would’ve resulted in them having the same chance at getting a top 4 pick (20.5%) as if they got 8th.

This is a win for the Magic.

This is correct.

Because of the three-way tie for 8th, the Bulls/Kings/Pelicans all have the same chance (minus 1 lotto combo) at hitting the top four.

All this coin flip did was lift the floor of the Magic's pick.

If the Bulls had been solo 8th, their odds would have been 26.2% instead of 20.2%.

[SOUL]

History of 8th seed is kinda **** lately but it used to produce a lot of really good picks. Let's hope Chicago doesn't move up and we can grab two good prospects!

[MAGICian619]

There is obviously a glass half empty and a glass half full way to look at this. I'd probably have preferred them to slot in at 10th. We're going to need some significant luck on June 22 regardless. An absolute nightmare scenario is potentially on the horizon.

Wrong. The Bulls had already split odds with 8-9-10 seeds odds. Today's drawing is just for if none of those teams are selected. Today's drawing is a win for the Magic (unless 8 seed is drawn in lottery of course). But the tie breakers today did not increase the odds that the Magic will lose the pick.

[PrimeThyme]

Thanks for the clarifications. Based on the Bulls fan reactions on Twitter I assumed it raised their odds to retain the pick significantly. I hadn't delved too far into the lottery odds for teams outside the top 5 with us being firmly in it for most of the year.

[MAGICian619]

Basically the Bulls winning the last meaningless game of the season turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Magic as the Bulls retain the 8 slot but that win reduced their odds of being selected in the lottery by a decent amount.

[Knightro]

Thanks for the clarifications. Based on the Bulls fan reactions on Twitter I assumed it raised their odds to retain the pick significantly. I hadn't delved too far into the lottery odds for teams outside the top 5 with us being firmly in it for most of the year.

There is a lot of disinformation and confusion out there as to what these tiebreakers actually mean. A lot of misinformed people on Twitter are suggesting that the Bulls winning the coin flip means they get the full 8th worst odds, which is not the case.

With no ties, it would have shaken out like this...

8th worst team gets 60 combinations
9th worst team gets 45 combinations
10th worst team gets 30 combinations

But since it's a 3-way tie, they actually split those 135 combinations evenly minus 1.

So the Bulls end up with 46 lotto combos. The Kings end up with 45 combos and the Pelicans end up with 44 combos (EDIT: all three teams might get a flat 45 combos, trying to confirm).

The Bulls are technically 8th worst now, but they have 14 fewer combinations than a solo 8th team would have.

The Pelicans are technically 10th worst now, but they have 14 more lotto combinations than a solo 10th team would have.

[MAGICian619]

Thanks for the clarifications. Based on the Bulls fan reactions on Twitter I assumed it raised their odds to retain the pick significantly. I hadn't delved too far into the lottery odds for teams outside the top 5 with us being firmly in it for most of the year.

There is a lot of disinformation and confusion out there as to what these tiebreakers actually mean. A lot of misinformed people on Twitter are suggesting that the Bulls winning the coin flip means they get the full 8th worst odds, which is not the case.

With no ties, it would have shaken out like this...

8th worst team gets 60 combinations
9th worst team gets 45 combinations
10th worst team gets 30 combinations

But since it's a 3-way tie, they actually split those 135 combinations evenly minus 1.

So the Bulls end up with 46 lotto combos. The Kings end up with 45 combos and the Pelicans end up with 44 combos.

The Bulls are technically 8th worst now, but they have 14 fewer combinations than a solo 8th team would have.

The Pelicans are technically 10th worst now, but they have 14 more lotto combinations than a solo 10th team would have.

You could be right, but I think they only do the minus 1 if number of combos are not evenly divisible by number of teams that are tied. With 135/3 being 45, I believe they will evenly split the 45 combos.

[Knightro]

You could be right, but I think they only do the minus 1 if number of combos are not evenly divisible by number of teams that are tied. With 135/3 being 45, I believe they will evenly split the 45 combos.

You could be correct on that. In which case even better!

[basketballRob]

We have the best chance of picking 9th.


https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/top-10-no-9-draft-picks-all-time

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[The Effect]

Lets say they stay at 8 and we end up with a top 4 pick.....Both are very likely.....

Imagine a scenario where we end up with Jalen Green and a combo\point forward like Barnes or Jalen Johnson (yes i know peoples opinion of him isnt high, but hes talented enough to take a chance on)

WC\Bamb
JI\Okeke
Barnes or JJ\Ross
Green\RJ\harris
Fultz\Cole

I dont care what anyone says, thats one of the best young cores in the league and a team that can be back in the playoffs sooner rather than later

[Knightro]

Lets say they stay at 8 and we end up with a top 4 pick.....Both are very likely.....

Imagine a scenario where we end up with Jalen Green and a combo\point forward like Barnes or Jalen Johnson (yes i know peoples opinion of him isnt high, but hes talented enough to take a chance on)

WC\Bamb
JI\Okeke
Barnes or JJ\Ross
Green\RJ\harris
Fultz\Cole

I dont care what anyone says, thats one of the best young cores in the league and a team that can be back in the playoffs sooner rather than later

It would be a good start, but I don't think that team would be very good next season at all. Fultz and Isaac are still question marks coming off their injuries and most rookies aren't good. But nevertheless, they'd have a lot of interesting youth and the ability to add another high lotto pick presumably.

The ultimate ceiling of the team may depend on Green and how good he eventually becomes. The Ringer compares Green to Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal.

But LaVine wasn't a positive contributor on the court and didn't make an all-star team until Year 7 (and team No. 2) when he was 25.

Beal was a positive contributor much earlier - he was impactful by year 3 and a star by year 5 - but he also didn't make an all-star team until year 6 when he was 24.

[The Effect]

Lets say they stay at 8 and we end up with a top 4 pick.....Both are very likely.....

Imagine a scenario where we end up with Jalen Green and a combo\point forward like Barnes or Jalen Johnson (yes i know peoples opinion of him isnt high, but hes talented enough to take a chance on)

WC\Bamb
JI\Okeke
Barnes or JJ\Ross
Green\RJ\harris
Fultz\Cole

I dont care what anyone says, thats one of the best young cores in the league and a team that can be back in the playoffs sooner rather than later

It would be a good start, but I don't think that team would be very good next season at all. Fultz and Isaac are still question marks coming off their injuries and most rookies aren't good. But nevertheless, they'd have a lot of interesting youth and the ability to add another high lotto pick presumably.

The ultimate ceiling of the team may depend on Green and how good he eventually becomes. The Ringer compares Green to Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal.

But LaVine wasn't a positive contributor on the court and didn't make an all-star team until Year 7 (and team No. 2) when he was 25.

Beal was a positive contributor much earlier - he was impactful by year 3 and a star by year 5 - but he also didn't make an all-star team until year 6 when he was 24.

Youre right, probably not a playoff team next year, but i think the year after is a def possibility

Fultz entering a contract year with a full year back from injury
JI also playing for his next contract
Cole and RJ entering their 3 year
Bamba and WC entering their primes (im guessing only one of them will be here after nex year though)
Barnes\johnson and who ever we pick in the 2nd (assuming we dont sell it) will also be entering their second years
Another lotto pick next year (maybe bamba\wc replacement?)

So yeah Green might not be Kobe right away, entering his second year he wont have to be. If hes year 2 bradley beal and everyone stays relatively healthy, i could see that team fighting for a playoff spot in the 2022-23 season

[Magic_Stick914]

So if Chicago doesn’t get the 8th at the lottery.. that means they’re getting a top four ruining our plans

[RookieStar]

So if Chicago doesn’t get the 8th at the lottery.. that means they’re getting a top four ruining our plans

Uh.. did you read the post above? Assuming its accurate.

The biggest chance is CHI gets, 9th pick, then 8th pick, then top4 pick, then 10th pick.

[thelead]

So if Chicago doesn’t get the 8th at the lottery.. that means they’re getting a top four ruining our plans

If you don't see Chicago's logo being pulled from the envelope on picks 12-8, we lost the pick. Not likely to happen but you never know I guess.