[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Mavericks

[Odinn21]

Hello.

Link to the project thread.

Pick the top 5 individual single seasons in the Mavericks franchise history.

As Dallas Mavericks from 1980-81 to today

Things to follow;
- This project is franchise bound, not city bound. Quick example; Philadelphia Warriors from 1949-50 to 1961-62 is part of the Golden State Warriors franchise history and 1952 Arizin is eligible for the GS Warriors history.
- We'll follow continuity of the franchise. I.e. Seattle SuperSonics and Oklahoma City Thunder are the same franchise. We'll use BBRef as reference for this.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/
- ABA seasons are included.
- 2020-21 season is yet to be completed, so, it's not eligible for this project.
- One season per player, no duplicates within the franchise history. Quick example; Shaquille O'Neal can be voted for only once for the LA Lakers franchise history, and he can be voted for the Orlando Magic franchise history. They are separate occasions.

- Reg. season and postseason play, both are included in evaluations.
- Votes will be counted per player, not per version of player.
- An easy going point system of 10/7/5/3/1, the same as Retro PoY project, will be used. Number of higher placement votes will be the tiebreaker (if two players are tied at 27 points for the 1st place, the player with more 1st place votes will get it).
- Explanation is needed, even in short forms.
- We'll be going alphabetically with franchise nicknames. Linked to the voting threads as well.

Spoiler:

Philadelphia 76ers
Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks
Miami Heat
Charlotte Hornets
Utah Jazz
Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers
Orlando Magic
Dallas Mavericks
Brooklyn Nets
Denver Nuggets
Indiana Pacers
New Orleans Pelicans
Detroit Pistons
Toronto Raptors
Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns
Oklahoma City Thunder
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
Golden State Warriors
Washington Wizards

Results on Google Sheet

- The time frame for each franchise is 2 days (10:00 EST).

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[sansterre]

#1. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki - There can't really be any argument here, right? A ridiculous 17.7 Win Shares, 7.9 VORP, +6.6 AuPM season where he posted a +7.8 OBPM in the playoffs? Forget about the Mavericks, this is one of the best seasons ever. Full stop.

#2. 2020 Luka Doncic - This one is a little weirder. Even adjusted for the shortened schedule his Win Shares are on the low side (9.6, but only '03 Nash is far ahead of him). But Luka's VORP is the best (of remaining) by a good margin (5.9) and his AuPM is also the best remaining (+4.3). And in the playoffs he posted a +6.9 OBPM. I don't feel like he's an easy spot above Nash, but the playoff performance was the tiebreaker.

#3. 2003 Steve Nash - Very strong regular season (11.6 WS and 4.5 VORP). But his really low AuPM (+2.0) suggests that the team wasn't as dependent on him as you'd think, and his playoff numbers (+3.9 OBPM) aren't anything to brag about.

#4. 2011 Tyson Chandler - This one may be a reach. His box score stats aren't impressive (9.4 Win Shares, 1.8 VORP and +0.6 OBPM in the playoffs) but his AuPM of +4.0 suggests that he was critical to the team's performance, and this was in the year that Dallas won the championship. This may be a reach. But Chandler's the exact kind of player that box score metrics underrate so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Also, the competition here isn't super-great.

#5. 1990 Derek Harper - A surprisingly strong season. It's not a ton to look at on the surface, but he was a strong distributor with very low turnovers, took a solid number of shots and made them at a decent clip (22% and +3.0%) while spacing the floor. And he racked up a ton of steals (5th in the league). VORP has him at 5.0 which is the 3rd best number for the Mavs. I'm not that sold on him, but I don't really like anyone else better.

[Odinn21]

#5. 1990 Derek Harper

Am surprised that you went with Harper over Aguirre.

[Jaivl]

1) 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (+5.50)
2) 2020 Luka Doncic (+3.90)
3) 2003 Steve Nash (+3.75)
4) 1987 Mark Aguirre (+2.75)
5) That's tough... maybe Tyson Chandler, Derek Harper, young Kidd (?) or... Michael Finley? :S

Will complete later, as always

[Texas Chuck]

As always this starts strong and thins out embarrassingly quickly.

[sansterre]

#5. 1990 Derek Harper

Am surprised that you went with Harper over Aguirre.

So was I, but many metrics seem to prefer Harper. PIPM gives Harper several seasons at Wins Added above +10 while giving Aguirre none above +9, and Harper comes out better in Win Shares and VORP as well. When I see a player with high steals like that I'm always wary of an overrate by the box score stats, but pretty much across the board Harper seemed the preferred player. So it put me in a tough position to go with Aguirre.

[Colbinii]

1. 2020 Luka Doncic
2. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki

This was difficult. Luka led the highest offense ever and had a tremendous post-season. Dirk was great in 2011, especially in the post-season, but I feel as if Luka gives you more odds at winning.

3. 2003 Steve Nash

"Best of the rest"

Not a whole lot to say here, nobody else is close.

4. 2015 Tyson Chandler

Did more with less here than in 2011.

5. 1984 Mark Aguirre

Tremendous season, skilled player who could score and pass. Not much of a defensive player and ultimately not a high-impact player.

[Dutchball97]

I'm going to come back to this later. Dirk is a clear #1 for me with Luka as a just as clear #2 but after that I can't make up my mind. Literally nobody has both a strong regular season and post-season. Nash in the play-offs for Dallas doesn't do much for me, Chandler has a lot going for him but just as much against him, Kidd's 2011 play-off was good but the regular season not so much, Aguirre looks solid but not amazing, Harper might just be the best of the bunch here if I'm being honest even though his post-season was very short, 05 Terry and 07 Howard seem like decent options too. Just very little seperating these guys.

[Dr Positivity]

1. 2011 Dirk - more polished offensive game helping him against smaller defenders than 06 and 07, all time playoff run

2. 2020 Doncic - not a ton of competition for this spot, 1st team All NBA level season

3. 2003 Nash - excellent offensive PG on top team

4. 1991 Harper - Solid 19/7 two way guard, seems like roughly prime Conley level

5. 2009 Kidd - Great +/-/RAPM and his best 3pt shooting season. Could make case for him 3rd.

HM: Chandler, Josh Howard, Finley, Aguirre, Terry

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I don't know if I'm allowed to vote or not since I haven't been in this project(am I?), but just wanted to say that 1984 Rolando Blackman might be a choice to consider at #4 or #5. 22.4ppg, 4.6rpg, 3.6apg, 9.8 WS, 3.3 VORP, 59.6% TS. Any number of guys good for those spots, and most have been mentioned, but I didn't see Blackman's name come up so thought I would throw it out there.

[penbeast0]

#5. 1990 Derek Harper

Am surprised that you went with Harper over Aguirre.

Of those Mavs big three, Aquirre was the 1st option on offense with the highest volume combined with good efficiency but he gave a lot back on defense whereas Harper and Blackman were both good offensive and good defensive players. I'm not surprised.

[HeartBreakKid]

From Lakers to Mavericks....Dirk is the king here and he wouldn't even make the Lakers top 5 D:

[falcolombardi]

1. 2020 Luka Doncic
2. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki

This was difficult. Luka led the greatest offense ever and had a tremendous post-season. Dirk was great in 2011, especially in the post-season, but I feel as if Luka gives you more odds at winning.

3. 2003 Steve Nash

"Best of the rest"

Not a whole lot to say here, nobody else is close.

4. 2015 Tyson Chandler

Did more with less here than in 2011.

5. 1984 Mark Aguirre

Tremendous season, skilled player who could score and pass. Not much of a defensive player and ultimately not a high-impact player.

mavs 2020 was not the greatest offense ever, it was the highest offensive rating ever, that distinction is as important as differentiating raw points per game from offensive rating

seven teams were better this season (the best one by close to 2 full points) and 8th ranked 2021 hawks not far behind to put in context how that season benefitted from the league wide offensive explosion of the last 2 years

it doesnt come close to nash/dirk mavs or nash suns in how much bettee they were than their peers

2020 mavs were 6.1 points above average in team rating

2005 suns were 8.4 points above average in team rating

2004 mavs were 9.2 points above average in team rating

and this actually understates those 2004-2005 teams.

by using points above average instead of percent above average

9 points above the 100 average of 2004 is not the same as 9 points above 110 average of 2020 one is 9%, the other is 8.2% for example

so this still undetstimates those teams

so i dont think dallas in 2020 was anythingh close to the best offense ever, either relative to their league or even in raw numbers (loses to 7 teams in 2021 already)

[Colbinii]

9 points above the 100 average of 2004 is not the same as 9 points above 110 average of 2020 one is 9%, the other is 8.2% for example

The best way to do this wouldn't be percentage, it would be standard deviations.

Also, I meant to say highest Ortg ever, not best offense.

[sansterre]

From Lakers to Mavericks....Dirk is the king here and he wouldn't even make the Lakers top 5 D:

2006 Dirk would probably be #4 for me. That season is no joke.

Seriously, here is '06 Dirk vs '87 Magic:

Win Shares: Dirk 17.7, Magic 15.9
VORP: Magic 8.0, Dirk 7.9
PIPM: Magic +5.98, Dirk +4.69
PIPM Wins Added (adjusted for playoff length): Magic +15.4, Dirk +15.0
Playoff OBPM: Dirk +7.8, Magic +7.3

I'm not saying that '06 Dirk > '87 Magic. Personally, I'd have Magic higher.

But I actually think that '06 Dirk has a serious argument at making those top 5.

[falcolombardi]

9 points above the 100 average of 2004 is not the same as 9 points above 110 average of 2020 one is 9%, the other is 8.2% for example

The best way to do this wouldn't be percentage, it would be standard deviations.

Also, I meant to say highest Ortg ever, not best offense.

what i tried to ilustrate is how relative that mavs achievement was

for example, the average team offense in 2021 is a near top 1 or outright top 1 offense in any other era. is really not as special as it sounds, phoenix suns in 2021 are not an all time great top 5 offense either for example

mavs had a elite offense, but they didnt separate thenselves from their competition more than your standard top 1 offense

being a 1# ranked offense is already amazing but highest rating ever always overstated it and made it seem more impressive that it actually was in context

[Texas Chuck]

Not sure which Dirk year to pick, but he has 3 or 4 better than Luka's best still. Probably would take 2007 which I know will be unpopular because of the playoffs, but winning 67 games with that head coach and that supporting cast is still one of the most ridiculous carry jobs in NBA history.

1. 2007 Dirk
2. 2021 Luka

numbers are slightly less impressive than last year, but he's clearly a better player this year.

3. 2003 Nash

like everyone else has said this is by default. Simply no other options to consider.

4. 84 Aquirre

I hear the arguments for Ro or Harper from this Mavericks era, but he was unquestionably the driving force of these teams imo

5. 2007 Jason Terry

Probably a controversial choice, but nobody really stands out so wanted to get JET a bone. Roy Tarpley should be 3rd on this list and frankly he might have already been the best player on the team that took the Lakers to 7 in 88. Kidd didn't have his best years here and all the credit to the world to Fin for playing every minute and trying to do everything until Dirk and Nash were ready to ascend, but just not quite a good enough player in the end.

[Texas Chuck]

9 points above the 100 average of 2004 is not the same as 9 points above 110 average of 2020 one is 9%, the other is 8.2% for example

The best way to do this wouldn't be percentage, it would be standard deviations.

Also, I meant to say highest Ortg ever, not best offense.

what i tried to ilustrate is how relative that mavs achievement was

for example, the average team offense in 2021 is a near top 1 or outright top 1 offense in any other era. is really not as special as it sounds, phoenix suns in 2021 are not an all time great top 5 offense either for example

mavs had a elite offense, but they didnt separate thenselves from their competition more than your standard top 1 offense

being a 1# ranked offense is already amazing but highest rating ever always overstated it and made it seem more impressive that it actually was in context

I hear your point and agree its not the "best" offense ever, but Dallas was more efficient than the Clippers at #2 by the same margin the Clippers were more efficient than a league average offense, so they absolutely did separate themselves from their competition more than a standard #1 offense. They weren't just the most efficient of all-time (prior to this year obviously) but they were way better than everyone else in the league.

[Colbinii]

9 points above the 100 average of 2004 is not the same as 9 points above 110 average of 2020 one is 9%, the other is 8.2% for example

The best way to do this wouldn't be percentage, it would be standard deviations.

Also, I meant to say highest Ortg ever, not best offense.

what i tried to ilustrate is how relative that mavs achievement was

for example, the average team offense in 2021 is a near top 1 or outright top 1 offense in any other era. is really not as special as it sounds, phoenix suns in 2021 are not an all time great top 5 offense either for example

mavs had a elite offense, but they didnt separate thenselves from their competition more than your standard top 1 offense

being a 1# ranked offense is already amazing but highest rating ever always overstated it and made it seem more impressive that it actually was in context

Again, it depends on how you measure it. The Mavericks were 2.8 Ortg ahead of the 2nd team in 2020. The Mavericks were 1.8 Ortg ahead of the 2nd team in 2004.

It was quite impressive what Luka was able to do without anyone close to an all-star on his team. Dirk played next to arguably the greatest offensive player in NBA History.

[Doctor MJ]

1. '10-11 Dirk Nowitzki

2. '19-20 Luka Doncic

3. '02-03 Steve Nash

4. '83-84 Rolando Blackman

5. '83-84 Mark Aguirre

Alright so the top two are clear cut for me. I think we're all expecting that any moment now Luka's going to surpass Dirk, it's not a serious debate in my head yet.

After that we've got 3 groups to consider:

The '80s trio of Aguirre, Blackman & Harper
The '00s rest-of-trio Nash & Finley
The 2nd most valuable player on the championship team, Chandler.

I don't know the '80s trio well. Aguirre is considered by everyone to be the best offensive player and this was a team winning with offense, so I'm inclined to go along with the conventional wisdom that he was the star of the team. But Blackman clearly showed an ability to volume score, had a tendency to end up putting up bigger numbers in the playoffs, and had a stronger defensive reputation. I ended up giving the nod slightly to Blackman over Aguirre, and I gave it to both in an early year where they were at a statistical peak. I think it might have been better to name a later year for both of them.

Harper is a guy you love to have on your team and I could absolutely preferring him at the very least to Aguirre. But I'll also say that as the youngest of the trio, it's particularly disturbing to me the way the Mavs fell apart at a time when I'd have been expecting Harper to step up to all-star status, which he never did.

For the '00s, I completely get it if you have Finley on your list, and even if you have him ahead of Nash. My opinion is admittedly influenced by the fact that the Mavs became a dominant offense with the arrival of the Nash/Nowitzki duo, and Nash continued to show how much he was capable in later years. I think we have to ask ourselves if the Mavs would have been a more serious contender if they'd traded away Finley early on as there's really no reason to think that the duo needed a meh efficiency scorer next to them.

I was tempted to put Chandler at either the 4th or 5th spot, but the minutes held me back. It's weird given that Chandler would play considerably more the next year in NY, but I do think that in terms of how much Dallas relied on guys, Chandler isn't really in the same conversation as Blackman or Aguirre, and I worry about just trying to elevate one of Dirk's champion teammates simply because they were champions.