Ok, so not sure how much you guys have checked out footage of Jalen Suggs or researched him, since he's a consensus top 4 pick, and may go as high as no. 2 so obviously no chance in hell Suggs would slide to no. 16.
So am I saying that?
I decided to watch some footage of Jaden Springer because someone in the NBA Draft forum on Real GM had Springer ranked as the no. 6 player in the draft. And I feel like I haven't seen him ranked super high in mocks I've seen so I decided to check him out.
Here's what I found out:
1) From what I'm seeing, Springer looks like he's just as good, if not better than Suggs
2) Seems like a pretty good chance he might still be on the board when the Celtics pick at 16
Ok, let's unpack that first thing and compare Springer to Suggs. First off, here's the video I watched:
Right off the bat, that first play in the video and immediately the comparison to Suggs comes to mind. The size, the frame, the athleticism, the way both players move on the court, the way both players handle the ball, the quickness. In that first play, the way Springer gets after it on D, makes the steal, races up the court in transition and finishes strong through contact for the and-1. I feel like I Iegit watched that same sh*t in a Suggs video.
Suggs: 24.8% usage, 23.7% assist
Springer: 26.0% usage, 24.1% assist
Suggs: 6'4", 205 lbs.
Springer: 6'4", 204 lbs.
Suggs: 33.7% from 3
Springer: 43.5% from 3
So a much higher 3 point % for Springer, although to be fair he did it in lower volume. But that's probably a good thing because he is more selective when taking 3's. Also, Springer has a smooth form on his shot, very high release, good arc so can shoot over bigger guys very effectively, and 81% FT shooter so between the smooth form and high FT% that bodes well for future improvement, especially given that Springer is only 18 years old.
Springer and Suggs both are very good defensively, both are very good at both scoring and facilitating. Springer's usage % is a little higher and assist % a little lower than I would like to see in a future PG for the Celtics, but if you watch the video the dude makes a ton of really nice, high level passes, like at the 5:15 mark and 5:59 mark.
Also - Springer's teammate at Tennessee, Keon Johnson is also projected to go high in the draft. But Springer is better than Keon Johnson at basically every advanced stat (BPM, PER, Win Shares, Turnover %, steals %, offensive rating, defensive rating) and is also higher than Johnson in minutes per game and points per game.
However, most mocks/rankings I've seen, they pretty much all have Johnson higher than Springer. Consensus seems to be Johnson is in the 7-11 range. Meanwhile, I checked 7 recent mocks plus the ESPN big board, this is where those 8 media outlets have Springer going:
16th, 29th, 28th, 15th, 22nd, 25th, 13th, 14th
So out of those 8 media outlets, 5 of them have Springer going 16th or later....and we have the 16th pick. Meanwhile they pretty much all have Suggs going in the top 3....but I'm honestly not seeing anything Suggs does better than Springer. I think the 2 of them are very comparable, it's highly debatable which one is the better prospect IMO. So we could get a steal if Springer falls to us at 16.
Get Springer in the 16 spot, and get Vrenz Bleijenbergh or Roko Prkačin in the 2nd round (check these 2 guys out on YouTube, both could be HUGE steals if we get them in the 2nd round and there's a good chance at least 1 of them will still be there when we have the 45th overall pick) and you give Ainge an A+ draft.