2025 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

[bluerap23]

Dagger can write He told us so. (in regards to Manoah)

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. But it's not hard to read body language; stats don't yell you if a guy has the mental makeup for MLB. When you look at Pearson vs Manoah, two big projectable guys, you see one hell of a difference between their mental makeups. Manoah is so confident, he tries to suppress that with a little modesty/humility in interviews. Btu he has a fire in him. In between innings, he jokes with teammates. He'll face adversity, a bad game or two or three, and work out of it. Pearson, if things aren't going exactly as he looks like the proverbial deer in headlights. In between innings, he's pacing like a nervous father awaiting news of the birth of a first child. I hope Pearson can work through this, it might mean he needs a lot of AAA starts to thicken his skin. I'm not giving up on him as a #1 or #2 starter, not at all, but his development curve might be a bit longer tan Manoah's.

I'm hopeful that Pearson will bounce back like Doc did. In a worst case scenario he will be a lights out closer. It wouldn't shock me if SWR beats him to rotation regular.

[polo007]

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[dagger]

A bit lost in the shuffle, but well worth following. Second baseman Samad Taylor, whom some of us have been watching since he was acquired in a 2017 deadline deal from Cleveland, has found his power in AA. Two homers tonight, he now has six, and a BA hovering around .270. He has exceptional speed, and NH has also been using him in the outfield. A sleeper infield candidate, also a potential trade piece. He still only 22.


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[Schad]

Taylor's fatal flaw is his K:BB, which has gotten progressively worse and is now genuinely awful. Even with the newly-found power while playing 2B, he probably isn't much of a trade piece because he's striking out more than 37% of the time while barely walking. I liked him as a possible sleeper going back a couple years, but he's Rule 5 eligible in the offseason and not really worth a roster spot.

[Lateral Quicks]

I'm a slight bit concerned about Martin's K rate so far in AA. He walked as much as he struck out in college, but so far he's K'd 28% of the time with a .372 SLG% to show for it in AA. It's probably just an adjustment period, but something to keep an eye on. Nothing wrong with his 14% BB rate and .387 OBP%.

Both Groshans and Martin are off the slows start - may be best to give them the full year in AA.

[vaff87]

I'm a slight bit concerned about Martin's K rate so far in AA. He walked as much as he struck out in college, but so far he's K'd 28% of the time with a .372 SLG% to show for it in AA. It's probably just an adjustment period, but something to keep an eye on. Nothing wrong with his 14% BB rate and .387 OBP%.

Both Groshans and Martin are off the slows start - may be best to give them the full year in AA.

I agree. However, consider that we started Martin a level above where the Tigers started Torkelson, who initially got off to a slow start, too. And that jump is considered the largest jump in the minors.

[vaff87]

I'm a slight bit concerned about Martin's K rate so far in AA. He walked as much as he struck out in college, but so far he's K'd 28% of the time with a .372 SLG% to show for it in AA. It's probably just an adjustment period, but something to keep an eye on. Nothing wrong with his 14% BB rate and .387 OBP%.

Both Groshans and Martin are off the slows start - may be best to give them the full year in AA.

Over his last 8 games Martin is coming around. Most notably over that stretch, his 3 true outcomes are: 2 HR, 8 BB, and only 5 K.

[Randle McMurphy]

Martin has something like a 135 wRC+ after tonight’s game and trending upwards. No issues with that in his first month in AA.

[-MetA4-]

Taylor's fatal flaw is his K:BB, which has gotten progressively worse and is now genuinely awful. Even with the newly-found power while playing 2B, he probably isn't much of a trade piece because he's striking out more than 37% of the time while barely walking. I liked him as a possible sleeper going back a couple years, but he's Rule 5 eligible in the offseason and not really worth a roster spot.

2 for 2 with a HR, 2B, and 3 walks tonight.

The strikeout rate is ugly, but he's posted 6 strikeouts to 4 walks in June so far. Its plausible that his strikeout rate in May was exaggerated due to rust coming off the COVID year. He's up to .284/.351/.549 now and he leads the league in SB. At just 22, he's definitely worth tracking because the power/speed combo is real.

[-MetA4-]

Also...freaking Kevin Smith is still hot: 3 for 4, HR (his 7th), and a SB tonight. He's up to .274/.369/.568. The strikeouts are still there, but he's also walking more than ever and hitting for more power than ever. Is he back?

[polo007]

Toronto Blue Jays might have real deal in Gabriel Moreno - TSN.ca

TORONTO — To Bo Bichette, he’s the kid with the electric bat.

To his family and friends in Venezuela, he’s Luli.

To the authors of the top 100 prospect lists he’s guaranteed to shoot up over the next few months, he’s Gabriel Moreno, catcher in the Toronto Blue Jays’ farm system.

But long before he started tearing up Double-A last month, Moreno’s right-handed swing had already caught the eye of a rehabbing Bichette last summer at the club’s alternate site in Rochester.

“He’s electric,” Bichette says with a small grin. “He’s kind of one of those guys that I walked on the field and I saw him take one swing and I was like, ‘That’s dangerous.’

“He’s going to have to obviously go out there and prove himself, but he’s got a lot of talent. It’s fun to watch.”

Through the first month of the minor-league season, Moreno is doing exactly that – proving himself.

At the testing ground that is Double-A, the first stop in the upper minors with more advanced arms than the ones dabbling in A-ball, Moreno is raking.

Through his first 20 games, the 21-year-old is slashing .367/.429/.608 with four homers, 10 extra-base hits, and a team-leading 24 RBI.

There are maybe deeper reasons Bichette was drawn to Moreno as there are many similarities in the profile: low walk totals, the ability to find the baseball with the barrel more regularly than others, and a reputation as an aggressive hitter.

“It’s his swing,” Bichette explains. “You can tell nobody touched him. You can tell that he kind of just goes out there and he’s free, he lets it go and he swings as hard he can. Anybody that watches me knows I love that.”

Moreno is now doing his best to push his own timeline up in a similar fashion, but this is a prospect the Blue Jays will not rush because of his immense upside as a potential all-around talent behind the dish.

“He has been awesome, he really has,” Jays GM Ross Atkins says. “I think there are actually some things [to improve on] with his approach. He’s so talented with bat-to-ball, bat speed, contact rates. I think just his ability to control the zone better is what we’re focused on with him. It doesn’t mean he has to stay in Double-A to do that and we will absolutely consider if it’s best for him to take another step forward.”

The message to focus on his approach isn’t anything new for Moreno.

It’s something the organization’s hitting coaches have been drilling into his head since he signed as an amateur shortstop during the 2016 international signing period.

[Schad]

2 for 2 with a HR, 2B, and 3 walks tonight.

The strikeout rate is ugly, but he's posted 6 strikeouts to 4 walks in June so far. Its plausible that his strikeout rate in May was exaggerated due to rust coming off the COVID year. He's up to .284/.351/.549 now and he leads the league in SB. At just 22, he's definitely worth tracking because the power/speed combo is real.

We're still only looking at a seven-game stretch where he has merely struck out 22% of the time, though. While possible that he'll turn it around, I have a pretty strong aversion to players in the mid-minors (so, guys with reasonably extensive pro experience, not 17 year olds in rookie ball) with massive strikeout totals. The failure rate is just so high...it's hard not to think of the likes of Monte Harrison, Corey Ray etc who had that same tantalizing mix of power/speed/at least some ability to play a premium defensive position, and washed out.

I remember going through all of the top K rate players in high-A/AA a few years ago, looking for guys who made it, and it was incredibly bleak; for every Joey Gallo there were innumerable former top 100 prospects who fizzled upon contact with major league pitching.


Edit: here it was. Regarding Griffin Conine, naturally.
viewtopic.php?p=84489174#p84489174

[vaff87]

2 for 2 with a HR, 2B, and 3 walks tonight.

The strikeout rate is ugly, but he's posted 6 strikeouts to 4 walks in June so far. Its plausible that his strikeout rate in May was exaggerated due to rust coming off the COVID year. He's up to .284/.351/.549 now and he leads the league in SB. At just 22, he's definitely worth tracking because the power/speed combo is real.

We're still only looking at a seven-game stretch where he has merely struck out 22% of the time, though. While possible that he'll turn it around, I have a pretty strong aversion to players in the mid-minors (so, guys with reasonably extensive pro experience, not 17 year olds in rookie ball) with massive strikeout totals. The failure rate is just so high...it's hard not to think of the likes of Monte Harrison, Corey Ray etc who had that same tantalizing mix of power/speed/at least some ability to play a premium defensive position, and washed out.

I remember going through all of the top K rate players in high-A/AA a few years ago, looking for guys who made it, and it was incredibly bleak; for every Joey Gallo there were innumerable former top 100 prospects who fizzled upon contact with major league pitching.


Edit: here it was. Regarding Griffin Conine, naturally.
viewtopic.php?p=84489174#p84489174

He homered again tonight.

Interesting looking at his stats, is that his pitches per plate appearance has increased every year of his career. This year he’s seeing more than 4.4 p/pa. Perhaps a conscious effort to increase that has led to an increase in his strike outs?

[Schad]

Could be, though you'd normally expect to see an uptick in BB% if it's a conscious attempt to work deep into counts, and his walk rate (previously his best feature) is actually the lowest of his career to date.

The power is certainly getting eyebrow-raising though, even if I'm quite iffy about how his numbers will translate at higher levels. If nothing else, he's likely going to earn himself a few months at AAA to determine whether he's worthy of a roster spot following the year.

[-MetA4-]

We're still only looking at a seven-game stretch where he has merely struck out 22% of the time, though. While possible that he'll turn it around, I have a pretty strong aversion to players in the mid-minors (so, guys with reasonably extensive pro experience, not 17 year olds in rookie ball) with massive strikeout totals. The failure rate is just so high...it's hard not to think of the likes of Monte Harrison, Corey Ray etc who had that same tantalizing mix of power/speed/at least some ability to play a premium defensive position, and washed out.

Of course, but his historical strikeout rate was never in the "catastrophic" category to begin with. 18.7% as a 19 year old in A-ball and then 27.9% as a 20 year old in High-A. The 28% K-rate last year is definitely high, but he was young for the level and there's still a gap there between him and guys like Griffin Conine and Corey Ray. I'm not really even disagreeing with you, but his play this year has clearly leveled up and I don't think he has the historical backing to conclude that he's a 30%+ K-rate guy. It's a wait and see to find out where his K-rate will normalize to. He has started to get real notice from prospect writers - he's super short to the ball with big bat speed and the athleticism is real.

[dagger]

We're still only looking at a seven-game stretch where he has merely struck out 22% of the time, though. While possible that he'll turn it around, I have a pretty strong aversion to players in the mid-minors (so, guys with reasonably extensive pro experience, not 17 year olds in rookie ball) with massive strikeout totals. The failure rate is just so high...it's hard not to think of the likes of Monte Harrison, Corey Ray etc who had that same tantalizing mix of power/speed/at least some ability to play a premium defensive position, and washed out.

Of course, but his historical strikeout rate was never in the "catastrophic" category to begin with. 18.7% as a 19 year old in A-ball and then 27.9% as a 20 year old in High-A. The 28% K-rate last year is definitely high, but he was young for the level and there's still a gap there between him and guys like Griffin Conine and Corey Ray. I'm not really even disagreeing with you, but his play this year has clearly leveled up and I don't think he has the historical backing to conclude that he's a 30%+ K-rate guy. It's a wait and see to find out where his K-rate will normalize to. He has started to get real notice from prospect writers - he's super short to the ball with big bat speed and the athleticism is real.

He was 3-4 tonight with another homer (#8), raising his average to .302. What's also interesting is that he started the season batting in the ninth spot, an afterthought I suppose, but as his average has come up, he's moved up progressively, and is now leading off. Previously an infielder, he's playing all three outfield positions mostly. The past two nights as CF. Speed was always a calling card; he has 12 stolen bases already. Is this a 13-game Bargnani? Possibly. But the organization must see something that is encouraging them to experiment like this. If he was just getting a crazy amount of lucky hops, I don't know that they'd be giving him that extra at bat he gets at the top of the order.

Here's #8

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[Schad]

Sem Robberse was one of our sleeper pitching prospects, and he's putting up some crazy components in Dunedin thus far, as a 19 year old. K rate of 14.5 per 9, walk rate of 3.38, scarcely giving up anything in the air.

Seems to be largely a two pitch guy at this point (FB 91-93, and a vicious curve) but he's definitely missing bats.

[polo007]

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