Post#6 » by sansterre » Sun May 30, 2021 3:47 pm
I’ve started integrating RAPM and PIPM into the analysis. One new stat I’ve made is WAA, which is PIPM’s Wins Added, but Averaged to an 82 game season (because Wins Added counts all games, which inflates players that make it far into the playoffs).
The following players were considered but were generally cut
2009 Carmelo was quite good in the playoffs and valuable when he played but his regular season (with missing time and all) was too low on value to count (only 5 WS, 1.5 VORP and 8.2 WAA).
1985 Calvin Natt has solid enough Win Shares and VORP (10.2 and 3.4) but he was graded with the 2nd lowest PIPM of the group (+1.94) which is enough to take him out.
1984 Kiki Vandeweghe is pretty much identical, with good general metrics but only a +2.02 PIPM.
1977 Dan Issel is again the same, with only a +2.24 PIPM.
Which leaves us with nine: ’77 Jones, ’78 Thompson, ’83 English, ’88 Lever, ’94 Mutombo, ’08 Iverson, '09 Billups, ’11 Nene and ’19 Jokic.
Win Shares: Thompson 12.7, Jokic 11.8, Iverson 11.6, Jones 11.0, Lever 10.4, English 10.3, Billups 9.9, Nene 9.6, Mutombo 9.4
VORP: Jokic 7.0, Jones & Lever 5.5, Thompson, 5.2, English 5.0, Iverson 4.0, Mutombo & Billups 3.7, Nene 3.2
AuPM: Nene +5.5, Iverson +4.1, Billups +3.9, Jokic & Mutombo +3.6
RAPM: Billups +5.4, Nene +4.7, Iverson +2.8, Jokic +2.1
WAA: Jones 13.3, Iverson 12.9, Lever 12.8, Jokic 11.9, Mutombo 11.2, English & Billups 10.4, Thompson 10.3, Nene 9.1
Playoff OBPM: Jokic +8.3, Billups +5.8, Lever +4.4, Iverson +4.0, English +2.7, Thompson +2.3, Jones +2.0, Nene +1.4, Mutombo -0.1
A really interesting mix here. And I don’t think it’s obvious where to make cuts. Every player has a case. But since I’ve got to . . .
First cut: 1978 David Thompson. His regular season box score metrics are actually great (#1 Win Shares, #3 VORP) but his PIPM is weirdly low (+2.69, #8), suggesting that the limited impact metrics we have for him aren’t super enthusiastic. Add on to that the fact that he really slowed in the playoffs (+2.3 OBPM, down from +5.5 OBPM in the regular season) and I feel like he’s a safe cut.
Second cut: 1994 Dikembe Mutombo. His box score metrics underrate him (not unusual for a defensive player) but his impact metrics aren’t great (+3.6 AuPM, tied for last and +3.25 PIPM, 5th). I’m happy to push a defensive specialist without box score metric support, but I want higher impact numbers in this group.
The last two cuts: ’11 Nene and ’83 English. They could not be more different. English smokes Nene in regular season box score metrics, and while Nene’s impact metrics are outstanding (+5.5 AuPM and +4.7 RAPM, both #1) his PIPM is only slightly above English and English played enough more that his WAA is higher. The WAA coming out for English makes me favor him for the regular season, but English’s OBPM dropped in the playoffs (+2.7 in only 7 games, down from +5.4 in the regular season) which suggests that Nene should be favored for the playoffs. But both fall a little short of '09 Chauncey Billups. Billups has comparable Impact metrics to Nene (but better box score metrics), and better WAA. And Billups looks comparable to English in the regular season, but instead of tailing off in the postseason Billups shined with a +5.8 OBPM over 16 games.
#5. 2009 Chauncey Billups - Billups' playoffs are excellent and his RAPM is nuts, but he's still considerably behind Iverson in both WAA and Win Shares (and in actual PIPM). Billups' playoffs were better . . . but not by a ton (5.8 OBPM vs 4.0 OBPM) and Iverson's regular season was almost certainly more valuable. I could see this going either way, but Iverson's huge edge in WAA did it for me.
For me, the next two spots are between two players: ’08 Iverson and ’88 Lever. Iverson has the higher Win Shares, Lever the higher VORP. Iverson’s the only one with Impact metrics, and both are solid but not great (+4.1 AuPM and +2.8 RAPM). Lever is graded superior in PIPM (+4.02 vs +3.17) but Iverson played so many minutes that their WAA are almost identical (12.9 for Iverson and 12.8 for Lever). Their playoffs were really similar, with Lever posting a +4.4 OBPM and Iverson a +4.0. This one is really close but I slightly favor Lever here. His far higher VORP and slightly superior playoffs break the tie for me.
#4. 2008 Allen Iverson
#3. 1988 Fat Lever
Which leaves us with our last two, ’77 Jones and ’19 Jokic. The box score metrics favor Jokic by a fair bit (11.8 WS to 11.0, 7.0 VORP to 5.5) but Jokic’s impact metrics are weirdly low (+3.6 AuPM and +2.1 RAPM). And we don’t know Bobby Jones’ but his PIPM is bonkers, +5.57 (vs +4.5) and Jones has the WAA advantage at 13.3 vs 11.9. Truthfully, I favor Bobby Jones’ regular season; Jokic’s low impact metrics sour me on him some. But in the playoffs Jokic averaged a +8.3 OBPM over a big sample size (14 games), which is something Jones doesn’t come close to. I put such a premium on superstar-level offensive efforts in the playoffs that I’m giving this to Jokic, but I think Jones has a strong case.
#2. 1977 Bobby Jones
#1. 2019 Nikola Jokic
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