Draft Thread Part 4

[Dalek]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't see Cade becoming an elite scorer. I think he will fill the stat sheet and he will get his 20 points but those expecting Doncic offense will be disappointed. Guys like Doncic are rare. He put up better numbers against mature professionals in Euorpe than Cade did against boys in college.

I am not worried about Cade because he was working with such an untalented team which impacted everything he could do. It was weird that he ended up on OK State, but I think it had something to do with his brother and honouring a commitment. If you watch his highschool film you see him playing freer and showing his elite passing. It is crazy that he had such poor passing numbers in college. Regarding the shooting, 20 PPG and 40% from three seem fine. I don't think he is an elite finisher at the rim, but he is really crafty.

I have watched everyone from McBride to Mitchell and Kai Jones defend Cade and all had some luck, but no one shut him down. He still got his and put his team in position to win. Hard to compare him to Doncic, but there is no doubt he will be an elite talent in the NBA, IMO.

One thing I will say is that Green is right up there with him for me. I just think Green is a super rare athlete with shot creation skills. He could be 20 PPG scorer in his first year.

[OakleyDokely]

Davion's offense is such a big question mark. He's been a mediocre FT shooter throughout his career and up until this year he's been a mediocre 3pt shooter. He also doesn't get to the line and it will be even harder in the NBA at his size. I expect much better offensive production from a senior, especially if I'm taking him with a top 7 pick.

I think his high end upside is a VanVleet type. Hit 3s and defend guards at a relatively high level.

[Jerry Lucas]

A slightly better Jeremy Lamb is a damn good basketball player. Not the superstar upside of some of the guys like Giddy or Bouknight, but way higher floors than them as well. I think with Moody you are going to be looking carefully at those none 3 and D things and see if he can progress the same way we hope to see OG adding to his 3 and D game.

I think you are the first person I've ever seen suggest Giddey has superstar upside. Bouknight I can see it but I see Giddey being way more likely to bust than even sniff being a star.

Giddey as a less flashy Lamelo Ball is similar "super star potential". Giddey is taller but possibly slower like a Kyle Anderson at worst.

I think the LaMelo comparisons are lazy because he was drafted last year, I would say he's a less flashy Lonzo, who is as athletic and good at shooting as a player who accidentally time traveled from Jerry Lucas' era to the present day.

[Saciid11]

I don't know why people are so worried about 18 year Moody shot creation. If I remember correctly Vince Carter as Junior in college was nothing more then athletic Dunker, Demar coming in the league dribbled like power forward. At least Moody was extremely productive freshman with already a good shooter and great defensive IQ . I wouldn't mind Moody at 7, I would rather draft Moody then guy like Barnes or Keon Johnson.

18 year old Moody got to the line almost 6 times per game which was one of the top rates among his draft peers.

He has sneaky athleticism and creation skills.

That is why I would be happy with Moody at the #7, I'm more concerned Raptors taking Barnes & Keon with that top 7 then Moody who at worse is 3& D guy and at best could be an all star in this league with his potential .

[OakleyDokely]

I would take Jalen Johnson in the 7-9 range.

He doesn't seem like a Masai pick. Jalen isn't regarded as the hardest worker and he drifts in and out of games. The full effort isn't always there.

If we're picking based purely on athletic, raw potential, Keon makes more sense because at least he's a smart kid who works hard.

[Psubs]

I think you are the first person I've ever seen suggest Giddey has superstar upside. Bouknight I can see it but I see Giddey being way more likely to bust than even sniff being a star.

Giddey as a less flashy Lamelo Ball is similar "super star potential". Giddey is taller but possibly slower like a Kyle Anderson at worst.

I think the LaMelo comparisons are lazy because he was drafted last year, I would say he's a less flashy Lonzo, who is as athletic and good at shooting as a player who accidentally time traveled from Jerry Lucas' era to the present day.

Nah, I think Giddey is less mechanical and jerky than Lonzo. He's like Rubio meets Kyle Anderson. But if a single player comp, I'd stick with Lamelo.

[720]

I would take Jalen Johnson in the 7-9 range.

He doesn't seem like a Masai pick. Jalen isn't regarded as the hardest worker and he drifts in and out of games. The full effort isn't always there.

If we're picking based purely on athletic, raw potential, Keon makes more sense because at least he's a smart kid who works hard.

Yeah, but he has a lot of upside and honestly out of the guys we're talking about in this lower range he has the highest ceiling. In highshool he played point guard and small forward but is the size of a power forward.

Duke was worried about his drive and it quickly became obvious that Jalen wasn't liking the reduced minutes and the role they gave him on offense.

It's a risk but I'd rather go for a homerun because if our elite coaching staff can get his mind right imo he shows a lot of promise. He's a big man with true guard skills and unlike Scottie Barnes he has something to worth with when it comes to his jumpshot.

[Marty_Budda]

Davion's offense is such a big question mark. He's been a mediocre FT shooter throughout his career and up until this year he's been a mediocre 3pt shooter. He also doesn't get to the line and it will be even harder in the NBA at his size. I expect much better offensive production from a senior, especially if I'm taking him with a top 7 pick.

I think his high end upside is a VanVleet type. Hit 3s and defend guards at a relatively high level.

If Fred had Mitchell’s first step he’d be an all star every year. So yeah if Mitchell is fvv with an elite first step I’m taking that with the 7th pick.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think late lottery is fair for Sengun - top 10 is a stretch imo.

Yes, in the top 10, your physical size has to match your position. Paul Milsap (and PJ Tucker for that matter) turned out to be great draft picks, but there's a reason they went in the 2nd round.

But again, it comes down to measurements. A #7/8 pick is a significant investment. Sengun is listed at 6' 10", but does that mean he's 6' 8" without shoes? What is his wingspan?

That seems like a weird rationale. You'd be cutting out Zion Personally I don't think measurements/physical stuff matters much when boots hit the ground. The first question is why, if he's too short and unathletic, is he dominating pros at 18?

[tecumseh18]

I think late lottery is fair for Sengun - top 10 is a stretch imo.

Yes, in the top 10, your physical size has to match your position. Paul Milsap (and PJ Tucker for that matter) turned out to be great draft picks, but there's a reason they went in the 2nd round.

But again, it comes down to measurements. A #7/8 pick is a significant investment. Sengun is listed at 6' 10", but does that mean he's 6' 8" without shoes? What is his wingspan?

That seems like a weird rationale. You'd be cutting out Zion Personally I don't think measurements/physical stuff matters much when boots hit the ground.

This isn't about knowing things for sure. It's risk assessment and risk minimization. Maybe not a problem in Toronto, but I think a lot of teams don't want to take a risk on the undersized player. Part of the risk is that if he busts, then management looks bad and eventually gets fired. So those guys tend to go outside the lottery, or in the 2nd round. Hey, I don't make the rules.

Masai generally picks lengthy guys (Malachi at #29 was the obvious exception, but he's a PG). How likely is he to use the highest lottery pick he's ever had on an undersized guy, whether Mitchell or Sengun ... or Garuba? (I just saw he's only 6' 8", so my interest in him has waned.)

The first question is why, if he's too short and unathletic, is he dominating pros at 18?

Because this isn't a strong year for the Turkish League?

[OakleyDokely]

Davion's offense is such a big question mark. He's been a mediocre FT shooter throughout his career and up until this year he's been a mediocre 3pt shooter. He also doesn't get to the line and it will be even harder in the NBA at his size. I expect much better offensive production from a senior, especially if I'm taking him with a top 7 pick.

I think his high end upside is a VanVleet type. Hit 3s and defend guards at a relatively high level.

If Fred had Mitchell’s first step he’d be an all star every year. So yeah if Mitchell is fvv with an elite first step I’m taking that with the 7th pick.

Fred was a very good shooter in college. 80% FT shooter and close to 40% from 3 over his college career.

Mitchell doesn't have that kind resume. His shooting splits are more like Beverely/Smart over his college career.

[WuTang_CMB]

I would take Jalen Johnson in the 7-9 range.

Looks underwhelming. I hope we stay away.

[Indeed]

Davion's offense is such a big question mark. He's been a mediocre FT shooter throughout his career and up until this year he's been a mediocre 3pt shooter. He also doesn't get to the line and it will be even harder in the NBA at his size. I expect much better offensive production from a senior, especially if I'm taking him with a top 7 pick.

I think his high end upside is a VanVleet type. Hit 3s and defend guards at a relatively high level.

If Fred had Mitchell’s first step he’d be an all star every year. So yeah if Mitchell is fvv with an elite first step I’m taking that with the 7th pick.

Fred was a very good shooter in college. 80% FT shooter and close to 40% from 3 over his college career.

Mitchell doesn't have that kind resume. His shooting splits are more like Beverely/Smart over his college career.

Neither of them has elite quickness. And if they are shooting similar to Beverley/Smart, Davion would be a star with his elite quickness.

[ATLTimekeeper]

This isn't about knowing things for sure. It's risk assessment and risk minimization. Maybe not a problem in Toronto, but I think a lot of teams don't want to take a risk on the undersized player. Part of the risk is that if he busts, then management looks bad and eventually gets fired. So those guys tend to go outside the lottery, or in the 2nd round. Hey, I don't make the rules.

You just made your own rule You'll see all shapes and sizes go in the lottery.

The first question is why, if he's too short and unathletic, is he dominating pros at 18?

Because this isn't a strong year for the Turkish League? [/quote]

That's possible, but this hasn't been done in Europe by anyone, and there are loads of leagues across the continent much worse than the Turkish league. imo the general rule should be if he makes athletic plays and dominates, you shouldn't question his physical attributes. Steph was too weak and small to play SG, Harden was below-the-rim, Durant couldn't bench his own weight, Luka was too fat and slow, Jokic wasn't an NBA athlete, Chris Paul was too short... These things never matter like a minute after they prove themselves on the court in the NBA.

People see Shaq, Jordan, LeBron, Giannis and they think it has to be all physical...

[DatHomieYouHaTe]

This isn't about knowing things for sure. It's risk assessment and risk minimization. Maybe not a problem in Toronto, but I think a lot of teams don't want to take a risk on the undersized player. Part of the risk is that if he busts, then management looks bad and eventually gets fired. So those guys tend to go outside the lottery, or in the 2nd round. Hey, I don't make the rules.

You just made your own rule You'll see all shapes and sizes go in the lottery.

The first question is why, if he's too short and unathletic, is he dominating pros at 18?

Because this isn't a strong year for the Turkish League?

That's possible, but this hasn't been done in Europe by anyone, and there are loads of leagues across the continent much worse than the Turkish league. imo the general rule should be if he makes athletic plays and dominates, you shouldn't question his physical attributes. Steph was too weak and small to play SG, Harden was below-the-rim, Durant couldn't bench his own weight, Luka was too fat and slow, Jokic wasn't an NBA athlete, Chris Paul was too short... These things never matter like a minute after they prove themselves on the court in the NBA.

People see Shaq, Jordan, LeBron, Giannis and they think it has to be all physical...

People want athletes that can't play basketball but will hopefully learn instead of guys that can actually play basketball but aren't freak athletes. GMs, media members and fans are all guilty of this.

[720]

I would take Jalen Johnson in the 7-9 range.

Looks underwhelming. I hope we stay away.

You mean his stats at duke?

[Dalek]

Yes, in the top 10, your physical size has to match your position. Paul Milsap (and PJ Tucker for that matter) turned out to be great draft picks, but there's a reason they went in the 2nd round.

But again, it comes down to measurements. A #7/8 pick is a significant investment. Sengun is listed at 6' 10", but does that mean he's 6' 8" without shoes? What is his wingspan?

That seems like a weird rationale. You'd be cutting out Zion Personally I don't think measurements/physical stuff matters much when boots hit the ground.

This isn't about knowing things for sure. It's risk assessment and risk minimization. Maybe not a problem in Toronto, but I think a lot of teams don't want to take a risk on the undersized player. Part of the risk is that if he busts, then management looks bad and eventually gets fired. So those guys tend to go outside the lottery, or in the 2nd round. Hey, I don't make the rules.

Masai generally picks lengthy guys (Malachi at #29 was the obvious exception, but he's a PG). How likely is he to use the highest lottery pick he's ever had on an undersized guy, whether Mitchell or Sengun ... or Garuba? (I just saw he's only 6' 8", so my interest in him has waned.)

The first question is why, if he's too short and unathletic, is he dominating pros at 18?

Because this isn't a strong year for the Turkish League?

I don't care as much about size if the player can make quick decisions and shows good positioning on defensive. Marc Gasol was an elite defender in the NBA not based on outquicking guy. Going further back, Garbojosa was a great stretch four with a bit of playmaking and heady defense. The guy was smoking between quarters and was still effective.

My issue with Sengun is really about fit. He is primarily a post-up big which is not how Toronto plays. Yes, he has shown a few outside shots, but he is not going to be a stretch PF/C because he won't be able to put the ball on floor to attack a close-out. At least, where is currently, I have a hard time seeing it. Literally no one is operating exclusively out of the post anymore so basically he needs to go to a team open to feeding the post. It is just not how Toronto plays and I cannot see them conforming to him.

Secondly, on defense, he is likely a drop coverage big. His lack of length is an issue on that end. He doesn't look like he would be able to switch either so I am not sure how you really use him. Maybe he will be smart like Bejlica, but even he topped out as only a bench big in all his stops.

Lastly, Sengun cannot speak English. He does all his interviews through a translator. He isn't like Jokic or Doncic who grew up with English as a second or third language. Not sure how it impacts adapting to a new culture, style of play and connecting with teammates, but unless this guy has a big personality like JV, I don't know if he will feel isolated and homesick. I follow Euroleague loosely, and throughout the years Greece has had so many amazing players who never stepped foot in the US because of the language and culture shock. I know Turkey has some good recent history with Korkmaz, Cedi and of course Kanter, but Sengun seems behind in that aspect.

[tdotrep2]

i wouldnt mind jalen as well, he would take the yuta/stanley role next year and i think be given a great chance to develop

[VanWest82]

Davion's offense is such a big question mark. He's been a mediocre FT shooter throughout his career and up until this year he's been a mediocre 3pt shooter. He also doesn't get to the line and it will be even harder in the NBA at his size. I expect much better offensive production from a senior, especially if I'm taking him with a top 7 pick.

I think his high end upside is a VanVleet type. Hit 3s and defend guards at a relatively high level.

If Fred had Mitchell’s first step he’d be an all star every year. So yeah if Mitchell is fvv with an elite first step I’m taking that with the 7th pick.

Fred was a very good shooter in college. 80% FT shooter and close to 40% from 3 over his college career.

Mitchell doesn't have that kind resume. His shooting splits are more like Beverely/Smart over his college career.

Davion's career college 3FG% is 37.6% vs. 38.6% for Fred so not really all that different. What is different is Mitchell shot 52.5% on 2s vs. only 44.7% for Fred. We sure are making a big deal out of 2 FTAs per game when the much bigger sample sizes from the field would indicate Mitchell is a quality scorer. FWIW Beverley was 46% on 2s and Smart was 48% on 2s and 29% on 3s so saying Mitchell's splits were more like those guys isn't really giving him a fair shake.

[WuTang_CMB]

I would take Jalen Johnson in the 7-9 range.

Looks underwhelming. I hope we stay away.

You mean his stats at duke?

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.