2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

It's weird that Holiday/Davis wasn't a more successful combination.

It really isn't. You can stack up all the 2nd options you want and there is going to be a cap on what they can achieve. Move them into their correct roles and their value increases.

It's more odd to me that there are still those who think AD is suited to be the best player on a contending team. He's just not that guy. Clearly one of the most talented #2's in the world, but just as clearly a #2.

It's not clear to me whether you're talking about the #1 offensive player or the #1 overall player. If you're limiting yourself to offense then your statement about AD makes sense to me, but when AD's at his best his 2-way impact feels monstrous.

On Holiday/Davis, I do think it's quite telling they weren't able to do more together, and quite honestly that to me speaks to limitations in Holiday as a floor general.

[HeartBreakKid]

It's weird that Holiday/Davis wasn't a more successful combination.

It really isn't. You can stack up all the 2nd options you want and there is going to be a cap on what they can achieve. Move them into their correct roles and their value increases.

It's more odd to me that there are still those who think AD is suited to be the best player on a contending team. He's just not that guy. Clearly one of the most talented #2's in the world, but just as clearly a #2.

I don't think they were winning the title as the 2 best guys but when you compare them to combos like say: Jokic/Murray, Giannis/Middleton, Lillard/McCollum, Lowry/Derozan, etc., there is no reason why Holiday and Davis couldn't have ripped off a series of 50 W 2nd round pretender type teams instead of playing like a 35 W team most of the time outside of one year. I think Gentry was the worst coach in the league.

But they did. They swept the Blazers who were the 3rd seed and had 49 wins.

They never really had much of a chance after that to do anything else. Either Jrue or Davis were hurt/barely playing in the other seasons.

The rest of the team was not good as well.

[Texas Chuck]

It's weird that Holiday/Davis wasn't a more successful combination.

It really isn't. You can stack up all the 2nd options you want and there is going to be a cap on what they can achieve. Move them into their correct roles and their value increases.

It's more odd to me that there are still those who think AD is suited to be the best player on a contending team. He's just not that guy. Clearly one of the most talented #2's in the world, but just as clearly a #2.

It's not clear to me whether you're talking about the #1 offensive player or the #1 overall player. If you're limiting yourself to offense then your statement about AD makes sense to me, but when AD's at his best his 2-way impact feels monstrous.

On Holiday/Davis, I do think it's quite telling they weren't able to do more together, and quite honestly that to me speaks to limitations in Holiday as a floor general.

Mainly I don't think for all his offensive talent that AD is particularly an offensive anchor. But I also have serious doubts about AD being able to be the best player on a contender unless his supporting cast is unusually strong. His individual offensive numbers are elite, but they seem to not have corresponding impact on his teams' offense. Like an exaggerated version of KD whose individual numbers exceed his actual impact on his teams.

I'd also agree Jrue is not a floor general. He's perfect right where he is as a 3rd option on offense who will always take the toughest assignments defensively and be as high of character individual as you could ever want around the rest of the team. But you don't want him responsible for orchestrating an offense for entire games.

[Dr Positivity]

Their window also wasn't that long

2013-14- Jrue goes down with a foot injury and Davis is still in his second year
2014-15- Jrue's foot still bothers him he misses half the year and is on a minutes restriction Pelicans go 45-37 and make the playoffs. Demps fires Monty Williams which proves to be a disaster
2015-16 Jrue is on a minutes restriction most of the year because of his foot, the entire rotation goes down to the point that Nate Robinson and Kendrick Perkins are playing minutes.

that's three years derailed with Jrue's injuries.

2016-17- Jrue misses the first couple months of the season because his wife has a brain tumor and is pregnant. Pelicans start off terribly.
2017-18 Team wins a playoff round with those two guys before losing to the KD/Steph Warriors.
2018-19 Davis signs with Klutch and has a foot out the door. He also gets hurt a bunch at the beginning and it derails the Pelicans season.

They didn't have much support but that window was also a lot shorter than people would think because of injuries.

While that's true I don't believe they were playing at that great of a level when Davis and Holiday were both healthy. The difference was more between a 30-35 W team and sneaking into the playoffs.

I don't blame them for underperforming in Monty era, they had half a seasons of Holiday and other bad injuries, younger Davis, etc. and still had one solid season.

2016 season Davis and Holiday (although less minutes) and Ryno didn't really miss that many games until getting shut down the last few weeks of the year. The rest of the team had brutal injuries but a record like 25-43 when they got shut down is still quite horrific for having those two players.

2017 Despite starting 2-10 without Holiday they still went a still mediocre 32-38 the rest of the season, the supporting cast is pretty horrific this year and no doubt the season being over a month in didn't help them confidence wise.

2018 good season, but not a contender or anything with or without Cousins.

2019 mostly healthy with Davis giving up at about 21-25, with now all star level Holiday. You say Davis had one foot out the door but if they played better would things have worked out? Imo talent level in supporting cast is pretty decent here with Randle in his second best season as a solid 3rd guy and Mirotic, although too tilted towards frontcourt.

[Doctor MJ]

It really isn't. You can stack up all the 2nd options you want and there is going to be a cap on what they can achieve. Move them into their correct roles and their value increases.

It's more odd to me that there are still those who think AD is suited to be the best player on a contending team. He's just not that guy. Clearly one of the most talented #2's in the world, but just as clearly a #2.

It's not clear to me whether you're talking about the #1 offensive player or the #1 overall player. If you're limiting yourself to offense then your statement about AD makes sense to me, but when AD's at his best his 2-way impact feels monstrous.

On Holiday/Davis, I do think it's quite telling they weren't able to do more together, and quite honestly that to me speaks to limitations in Holiday as a floor general.

Mainly I don't think for all his offensive talent that AD is particularly an offensive anchor. But I also have serious doubts about AD being able to be the best player on a contender unless his supporting cast is unusually strong. His individual offensive numbers are elite, but they seem to not have corresponding impact on his teams' offense. Like an exaggerated version of KD whose individual numbers exceed his actual impact on his teams.

I'd also agree Jrue is not a floor general. He's perfect right where he is as a 3rd option on offense who will always take the toughest assignments defensively and be as high of character individual as you could ever want around the rest of the team. But you don't want him responsible for orchestrating an offense for entire games.

In the playoffs last year the +/- definitely gave AD the edge over LeBron, and I'd venture to say that if we just looked at the +/- for games where AD looked like AD, the edge would be considerably bigger.

I think if you're going at all by regular season +/-, you're running in part into the issue where he just doesn't seem capable of playing 100% committed throughout the season.

(I'll acknowledge that AD's playoff on/off looks rough right now, but in the two games he's played well, I still think he was very effective.)

All this to say: Fine with AD not being an offensive #1. Fine with concerns over his reliability and what that says about being #1. But when he's really playing, I'm a believer.

Agree on all things Jrue. You want him as your off-guard.

[Rapcity_11]

AD could absolutely be the best player on a title team. He's kinda like Kawhi in that he's an elite player but not the classic one-man hub like LeBron, Harden, etc.

And Jrue can absolutely be a floor general. Look at what he did against Miami. What he can't be is a team's sole offensive creator off the dribble. Very few can.

[VDT]

AD is not a first option. His efficiency comes largely from finishing plays created by others. If you just give him the ball and let him create, chances are he will just shoot a contested jumper, something that he is not good at, or try to bait for a foul. In a playoff environment with defenses focusing on him these limitations will become more pronounced. Perhaps more importantly, he doesnt strike me as a leader. He plays soft on both ends of the floor so it is hard to see someone that can lead a team to a title in him.

You can maybe alleviate these issues by getting a lot of offensive talent on the team and try to get veteran leadership but it quickly becomes a bit unrealistic in terms of roster construction. Or you can actually try to get an actual leader and have Davis be his #2, which is his more natural place.

[Max123]

AD could absolutely be the best player on a title team. He's kinda like Kawhi in that he's an elite player but not the classic one-man hub like LeBron, Harden, etc.

And Jrue can absolutely be a floor general. Look at what he did against Miami. What he can't be is a team's sole offensive creator off the dribble. Very few can.

Not arguing one way or the other but Kawhi is surely a decent bit closer to being that (your classic one-man hub) than AD.


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[MartinToVaught]

Fan behavior at these games has been out of control:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Starting to wonder if the wall-to-wall media coverage of these incidents is starting to encourage copycats who want their 15 minutes of fame for doing stupid ****.

[AussieBuck]

How would you defend Nets if you were Bucks? Most people want to see Giannis at center and no Lopez minutes, but I wonder if that's the best option. Switch everything isn't a good choice against Nets and Bucks need rim protection against Harden.

Again, I'm not sure. Maybe drop coverage isn't the worst idea? Maybe it is... What do you think?

Lopez gets burned or played off the floor most often when the other team has a stretch 5 or a lead guy who's happy to shoot a volume of shots above the arc. The Bucks will probably (and I'd agree) start out with Tucker in Donte's spot and switch 1-4 with Lopez in the drop ignoring whichever big the Nets go with. If the Nets get sick of Brook blocking the lane they'll probably do what a lot of teams do and play 2 on 1 with their lead guy from three point range and try to get Brook out of there. If that works I'd then go with Jrue/Pat/Mids/Tucker/Giannis and switch everything to try and bog things down.

[parsnips33]

Fan behavior at these games has been out of control:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Starting to wonder if the wall-to-wall media coverage of these incidents is starting to encourage copycats who want their 15 minutes of fame for doing stupid ****.

I think COVID and the lockdowns messed with people's brains (not medically speaking, but on a societal level it screwed people up) There's so much pent up hostility and anger that will bubble up to the surface this summer, both in the world of sports and beyond

[parsnips33]

AD is not a first option. His efficiency comes largely from finishing plays created by others. If you just give him the ball and let him create, chances are he will just shoot a contested jumper, something that he is not good at, or try to bait for a foul. In a playoff environment with defenses focusing on him these limitations will become more pronounced. Perhaps more importantly, he doesnt strike me as a leader. He plays soft on both ends of the floor so it is hard to see someone that can lead a team to a title in him.

You can maybe alleviate these issues by getting a lot of offensive talent on the team and try to get veteran leadership but it quickly becomes a bit unrealistic in terms of roster construction. Or you can actually try to get an actual leader and have Davis be his #2, which is his more natural place.

AD is definitely not a "go get me a bucket" guy where you can just throw him the ball and watch him score, but I don't think that neccesarily stops him from being a first option. There just has to be a bit more creativity in how you get him the ball. Look at the play-in game against the Warriors as an example - first half, they post him up a lot against Draymond in the halfcourt and nothing came of it. 2nd half, he's getting the ball in motion, moving towards the rim and he's practically impossible to stop. It's kinda like how a Ray Allen is more effective coming off a screen than throwing him the ball on the wing and letting him go to work.

[SeniorWalker]

I think people have to define "first option". I don't think that always means playmaker/scoring hub, though I do understand people's concerns about AD and getting isolation buckets. 1st option on any particular play generically means that getting the ball to that player in his spot is the preferred choice. The player doesn't have to be a hub or creator necessarily if they are really dominant at what they do....although the best 1st options are usually guys that can create their own offense on the perimeter.

The things is, AD kind of was the Lakers first option and best scorer for most of the playoffs last year. This year he's clearly just been hurt, as is the norm for him, compared to last year where he had a fairly miraculous run of good health.

I agree that he's not as ideal a #1 as other ATG players at his talent level but that doesn't mean he can't be one. If he'd had a little better distribution of talent on those Pelican teams, and there were no warriors superteam from 17-19, I'm pretty confident he could lead a team deep into the playoffs.

I will say I have questions about his mental game and leadership qualities. The klutch sports debacle lowered him quite a bit in my eyes.

[CKRT]

I think the hard thing with AD as a first option is that he has plenty of opportunity to prove it in his minutes without LeBron. I don't think (IIRC) that he has a single positive +/- lineup. Granted I haven't dug deep into his minutes and analyzed those lineups and we all know the Lakers roster is flawed in terms of shooting.

[MisterHibachi]

I think the Lakers and Heat should be judged on a curve this year, with the shortest off season of any team. AD clearly came into the year out of shape and never really got going, and the team doesn't have any playmaker other than LeBron for him to run with in the non LeBron minutes. Him and Rondo did fine on offense last year, and I don't have reason to believe AD wouldn't do well with another high level play maker. Maybe that means he's not a traditional first option, but with the right pieces around him and if he's healthy, I think he's definitely good enough to be a first scoring option on a play off team or a contender.

[parsnips33]

Game 5, AD out, Suns could really shift the momentum of the series with a win tonight.

What type of performance do you expect to see from Lebron tonight? All out scoring frenzy to carry the load? Defer early to hope to get somebody like Schroeder hot?

I think it's gonna be a classic game

[Fadeaway_J]

I think the hard thing with AD as a first option is that he has plenty of opportunity to prove it in his minutes without LeBron. I don't think (IIRC) that he has a single positive +/- lineup. Granted I haven't dug deep into his minutes and analyzed those lineups and we all know the Lakers roster is flawed in terms of shooting.

Not only shooting but also playmaking. Rondo was the only other ballhandler on the roster and he was mostly crap in the regular season.

In today's NBA, you would expect a mid-tier playoff team to at least have good enough guard play and overall shooting for him to achieve moderate success as the first option. Like I said before, my questions are more about durability and mentality.

[MartinToVaught]

I think COVID and the lockdowns messed with people's brains (not medically speaking, but on a societal level it screwed people up) There's so much pent up hostility and anger that will bubble up to the surface this summer, both in the world of sports and beyond

That's a possibility, but wouldn't we be seeing a bunch of similar incidents at MLB and NHL games right now? After all, it's not like COVID and its societal effects were exclusive to NBA fans.

[MisterHibachi]

Game 5, AD out, Suns could really shift the momentum of the series with a win tonight.

What type of performance do you expect to see from Lebron tonight? All out scoring frenzy to carry the load? Defer early to hope to get somebody like Schroeder hot?

I think it's gonna be a classic game

Honestly not expecting a lot. He hasn't scored more than 25 since March 18 (although that's mostly because he hasn't played many games since), and hasn't really looked good physically, at least in the half court, in this series. If his jumper is on, which it kinda was in the first two games, then yeah could be a special night, but idk. Also depends on how much he gets to play with Gasol vs Drummond.

[SeniorWalker]

Game 5, AD out, Suns could really shift the momentum of the series with a win tonight.

What type of performance do you expect to see from Lebron tonight? All out scoring frenzy to carry the load? Defer early to hope to get somebody like Schroeder hot?

I think it's gonna be a classic game

I expect a good game but maybe not superhuman like we've seen from a more prime LeBron.

That said, he wasn't superhuman last game and the Lakers almost stole the game anyway. The Lakers are actually not a terrible team without LeBron contrary to hype, because they are excellent defensively. With him and Gasol playmaking, defending, and other guys stepping up, they will have a shot against a team of the caliber of the Suns...who are good but not world beaters.
The Suns have more talent but their best scorer still seems to be figuring it out in terms of quality decision making and Paul is not 100%. They're not unbeatable.

I will say the Lakers have zero chance of making the finals without Davis even if they win today, especially if they run into the Clippers.