ROUND 1, GAME 4: Clippers @ Mavs Sunday 6:30PM PDT on ESPN

[TrueLAfan]

Great adjustments from Ty Lue. Only negative is that he should've made them for game 2 but we're back in it. Now this is the Kawhi I've been waiting to see. Absolutely stellar every game. PG has been the perfect #2 so far. Both of these guys have to keep attacking the paint and we should close them out. Batum has been great. Morris is back hitting shots. Rondo, Mann, Reggie have been good. Somebody in the series thread in the General Board made a good point about Zu.. he doesn't lift weights. He has the same body as when he was drafted. He's got to hit the weight room in the off season if he's serious about making some type of leap in his game. I think Pat Bev is almost done as a player.

And to think we were down 0-2 and down 19 in the first quarter of game 3 to now tying it all up. Lets hit 'em hard on Wednesday

Yup. This is “Step on their necks and kill them” time.

Loved when Boban came in because, well, Boban—but, yes, that’s largely a desperation move. Boban gives some of the pluses of Zubac with a lot more negatives—and this series is not the one for Zu, as we’ve seen. The Mavs (smartly) used Porzingis in more of a facilitator/secondary passer in the first games. Zu actually defends Porzingis as a shooter relatively well straight up—but when Dallas increased their ball movement and we tried to stay with the same defense--just didn’t work. We didn’t switch enough—or quickly enough. (Basically, as esqtvd might say, we were playing on the back foot defensively.) Zu is not the player to do that. He actually was terrific against Dallas last year, but the shifts Carlisle have put him have reduced his effectiveness.

(OTOH, it’s true to say that Zu has made fairly small, incremental improvements since becoming a Clipper—if he wants to be more of a force in the league and get more minutes, he needs to improve something. Not sure if the weight thing is true, or the right thing—maybe he needs to be 15 pounds lighter and quicker. Maybe he needs to develop more of an off hand low post offensive game. But I’d like to have something we could say “Zu has clearly improved at ___.” Still, like I said, this series is just wrong for him, match-up wise.)

And og15 is right—it’s not just the defense. It’s who’s shooting—and catching us off guard to get perimeter players better looks. Dallas decided to trade a chunk of Porzingis’s shooting for the shooting of Hardaway, Brunson, and Smith. The increased passing gave them better looks and they capitalized. When we started Batum, and played more tight man, the Mavs couldn’t get as many open looks.

My guess is that, if he’s healthy, the Mavs will go back to having Porzingis shoot more in Game 5. (He’s down 4 FGA and 2 3PA in the series, and is playing higher up in the post so his rebounds are down as well.) Looking to pass and playing a little deeper in the post, he can capitalize on his height—and his quickness is decent. If he’s healthy. And that’s a big if. And it may not be enough.

[clipperlover]

Anyone still whining about how "easy" the Blazers would have been isn't watching them play.

It's called matchups Martin. The Nuggets like the Jazz are pretenders especially with the injuries and we've seen all season how easily we can shut down Dame. I went over it previously before the series stared, we struggled against the Mavs constantly throughout the season including shooting some of our lowest 3pt FG% against them in games. Guess it fell on unmoved ears..

And if you still think Zu somehow is a benefit to this team against the Mavs, you have't been watching them play.

Since the Portland match-up is so easily in our favor, can you please break down the game where we played the Blazers starting unit of Lillard, McCollum, Covington, Powell and Nurkic? We wouldn't have been playing a starting unit with Derrick Jones and Enes Kanter. We only played them one time with Nurkic this year and that was in December when he was still not fully recovered.

Can we beat them in a series? Yes. To think we have some overwhelming advantage against a team we haven't truly played against is really short sighted though

[RingColluder]

Anyone still whining about how "easy" the Blazers would have been isn't watching them play.

It's called matchups Martin. The Nuggets like the Jazz are pretenders especially with the injuries and we've seen all season how easily we can shut down Dame. I went over it previously before the series stared, we struggled against the Mavs constantly throughout the season including shooting some of our lowest 3pt FG% against them in games. Guess it fell on unmoved ears..

And if you still think Zu somehow is a benefit to this team against the Mavs, you have't been watching them play.

Since the Portland match-up is so easily in our favor, can you please break down the game where we played the Blazers starting unit of Lillard, McCollum, Covington, Powell and Nurkic? We wouldn't have been playing a starting unit with Derrick Jones and Enes Kanter. We only played them one time with Nurkic this year and that was in December when he was still not fully recovered.

Can we beat them in a series? Yes. To think we have some overwhelming advantage against a team we haven't truly played against is really short sighted though

That's a great point, one of my main questions was what would change with Nurkic played. However I don't think there is a better team to handle Dame as evidenced by our games against him recently.

And I totally disagree. The Trailblazers are a far easier MATCHUP and scheme fit for us compared to the Mavs. Overwhelming? Perhaps not, but that is a series I could see at most going 5 games. The Mavs series I always saw as a major question mark, despite some posters have proclaiming it'd be over in 4-5 games at most.

[MartinToVaught]

Anyone still whining about how "easy" the Blazers would have been isn't watching them play.

It's called matchups Martin. The Nuggets like the Jazz are pretenders especially with the injuries and we've seen all season how easily we can shut down Dame. I went over it previously before the series stared, we struggled against the Mavs constantly throughout the season including shooting some of our lowest 3pt FG% against them in games. Guess it fell on unmoved ears..

And if you still think Zu somehow is a benefit to this team against the Mavs, you have't been watching them play.

I've been a fan long enough to know that regular season "matchups" mean very little with this franchise in the playoffs. It always somehow ends up being a million times harder than it needs to be.

[RingColluder]

Anyone still whining about how "easy" the Blazers would have been isn't watching them play.

It's called matchups Martin. The Nuggets like the Jazz are pretenders especially with the injuries and we've seen all season how easily we can shut down Dame. I went over it previously before the series stared, we struggled against the Mavs constantly throughout the season including shooting some of our lowest 3pt FG% against them in games. Guess it fell on unmoved ears..

And if you still think Zu somehow is a benefit to this team against the Mavs, you have't been watching them play.

I've been a fan long enough to know that regular season "matchups" mean very little with this franchise in the playoffs. It always somehow ends up being a million times harder than it needs to be.

Well the Mavs RS and last year's playoff games gave a pretty good indicator of how we would look and it wouldn't be this cakewalk some people thought.

[clipperlover]

It's called matchups Martin. The Nuggets like the Jazz are pretenders especially with the injuries and we've seen all season how easily we can shut down Dame. I went over it previously before the series stared, we struggled against the Mavs constantly throughout the season including shooting some of our lowest 3pt FG% against them in games. Guess it fell on unmoved ears..

And if you still think Zu somehow is a benefit to this team against the Mavs, you have't been watching them play.

I've been a fan long enough to know that regular season "matchups" mean very little with this franchise in the playoffs. It always somehow ends up being a million times harder than it needs to be.

Well the Mavs RS and last year's playoff games gave a pretty good indicator of how we would look and it wouldn't be this cakewalk some people thought.

There just aren't any cakewalks this year. 3 of the WC series are definitely going at least 6 games with the potential for all of the series to go at least 6. No WC team has swept a 1st round series since 2018. 2 series went 7 games last year and ours went 6. So, out of the last 8 WC 1st round series, a max of two (could be 1 after tonight) will have went less than 6 games.

Regular season series mean very little. There are too many factors that just don't exist in the playoffs. Outside of back to backs, the coaching staffs aren't focusing on just one opponent. We played the Mavs 3 times this year. 2 of those games were in Dallas where we played them in the 7th and 8th road games of an 8 road games in a 9 game stretch.

[RingColluder]

I've been a fan long enough to know that regular season "matchups" mean very little with this franchise in the playoffs. It always somehow ends up being a million times harder than it needs to be.

Well the Mavs RS and last year's playoff games gave a pretty good indicator of how we would look and it wouldn't be this cakewalk some people thought.

There just aren't any cakewalks this year. 3 of the WC series are definitely going at least 6 games with the potential for all of the series to go at least 6. No WC team has swept a 1st round series since 2018. 2 series went 7 games last year and ours went 6. So, out of the last 8 WC 1st round series, a max of two (could be 1 after tonight) will have went less than 6 games.

Regular season series mean very little. There are too many factors that just don't exist in the playoffs. Outside of back to backs, the coaching staffs aren't focusing on just one opponent. We played the Mavs 3 times this year. 2 of those games were in Dallas where we played them in the 7th and 8th road games of an 8 road games in a 9 game stretch.

Umm, we would have had a fairly easy time with the Grizzlies or Trailblazers. But certain someone blew the important 3 game stretch of games starting with that Pelicans game, and we foolishly threw the last 2 games. Again, it's just matchups. Yes Dame could have scored 60 one game and made it a 5 game series, but it send such a bad message to be actively avoiding the Lakers. Bleh.

The Mavs stretch where we played them on our 2nd to last game against them than a day later was a great "playoff like" atmosphere where we could see how coaches handled adjustments and subs. We saw how well Carlisle did, and was a major reason why I wasn't as optimistic about this series heading in as a lot of people here were.

[tamaraw08]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=91107878#p91107878

Hello, just like to remind you guys what I said in this link..message#232.
This is what I said.

Relax guys, Dallas shooters will ALL GO COLD next game. Kawhi and PG will tag team and defend Luca, it'll be tied by end of game 4.

[og15]

Anyone still whining about how "easy" the Blazers would have been isn't watching them play.

Nothing is easy. I think the Blazers smaller backcourt players make more of the Clippers perimeter defenders more useful and they don't create any specific mismatches. Norman Powell is destroying Denver, 18 ppg / 66 TS% (he's an efficient guy), and Carmelo is at 13 ppg / 60% TS.

With the injuries, the Nuggets are starting Campazzo ( nice backup, nice passing, saavy, not enough help with scoring or shooting), Rivers (well...) and Gordon (nice multi faceted player, unreliable shooter and scorer).

A Clippers matchup forces two of Lillard, McCollum or Powell when all on together to guard a much bigger player. Only one can truly hide in Beverley or Jackson. Morris is not as easy to hide a 6'4 or under guard on if they decide to go that route because he can post effectively. Vs Denver, the Blazers guards can matchup with Campazzo and Rivers, then Porter or Gordon as needed. Portland has only had one real "good" defensive game, their last game despite the weaker offensive car for Jokic, but the roster makeups are the factor, not Portland being bad.

[TrueLAfan]

I actually think Portland is a more balanced, and more talented team than Dallas. But their strengths are our strengths, unlike Dallas. And I think og15 is 100% right in his descriptions of the Blazers players. Portland backcourt strength and their style the play is a much more straightforward matchup for us. That being said, I also think they’re much more talented than Dallas. Nurk is probably the fourth best player on the Blazers this year; he’s not totally back, but he did average 15 and 12 in his last 15 games or so, and he’s putting up 13 and 11 in less than 30 mpg in the Playoffs. Between him and Kanter, they’ve got lots of low post strength. But Zu, Ibaka, and Morris matchup well with those two and Covington. Still, you’ve Dame and McCollum to contend with after that, and pretty good depth.

Coaching is a factor too. I personally think Terry Stotts is a pretty average coach, at best. Carlisle is a great coach. That’s why Dallas, though less talented and a worse matchup on paper, is (and has been) more of a wild card. Dallas is well coached and well prepared, and that has helped them out so far against us.

All of this continues to be why I think the “tanking to avoid ___!” idea was/is somewhat wrong. We didn’t have control over who won or lost other games. The teams in the West are bunched up in terms of talent and/or record—and the injury bug has evened it out that much more for many/most teams. I don’t think there’s any team I’d “want” to play.

[og15]

Dallas didn't stop doing anything.

The Clippers have defended them well for the last 6 quarters at this point. The first 2 games were not luck and shooting with the "sliders turned up". It was poor defense.

When wide open, Dallas only shot 37.0% 3PT over the whole season. When just open, they shot 36.9%, basically no difference, as long as it was open or better, they shot 37% 3PT. First three games they shot 50.5% 3PT, Hardaway shot 65% 3PT. Bad defense alone does not account for that.

They were 5/12 (41.7%) on tightly contested three's (regular season 29.7%), and made 2-2 of their very tightly contested three's. Overall on more contested three's, which most teams try to avoid (only 5 teams had higher than 5.6% of their 3PA's as tightly contested), they were 7/14 over the first three games. A lot of bad defense is played around the league and opponents don't carve that up with 50%+ 3PT shooting.

They were 5/30 tonight. Not only did they stink it up, this is the least amount of attempts they've made in the series (36,34,and 39 before tonight).

That was defense.

Plus, while it may not be all poor defense that got them those numbers, those numbers are nearly impossible to hit without poor defense and without having mostly open, in rhythm looks. I doubt anybody believes if we went small and with the lineups we have now, they would have shot the way they did in Los Angeles

Further, I want to know what threes they are calling tightly contested in this series. Zub on Luka gets a hand up but it's clear it's not a real contest and doesn't bother Luka any. If those are going in as contests, I've got an objection to that. If there is any disagreement with that, then how about the person disagreeing go back to our game plans from Game 1, 2 and the start of Game 3 and let's make a bet on whether Luka gets hot from DT again when we switch Zub onto him.

I'd say both. I wouldn't call it an either or, but both. I didn't see the same miscommunication on defense I outlined previously. That said, good defense doesn't make NBA teams consistently shoot 5/30 just like bad defense won't consistently have them shooting >50%. Good defense for example forces 1-2 more misses from 3PT, good defense alone based on the looks they got could get them to 8-9/30. Regardless of what three's they are calling contested, the majority of three's NBA teams take will be open or wide open (for NBA players of course), they don't take many three's with tight contest. Around 90% plus of attempted three's are open or wide open.

It was definitely both, check out the video box score of their attempts:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FG3A&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042000174&PlayerID=0&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612742&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

(I love video box score if you guys haven't realized, don't mention it often, but it's how I like to review parts of games I have forgotten)

Dallas taking fewer 3PT in first three games, kinda. Dallas during the regular season took 38.1 3PA. Games 1-3 they averaged 36.3, but because the pace was slower that doesn't necessarily mean on a per possession basis they were taking less, but the Clippers weren't giving them more and definitely not statistically significantly more three's per possession than they regularly get.

2nd half of game 3. In the second half of game 3 they were 8/17 3PT (47.1%). Kleber was 2/3, Brunson was 2/4, Hardaway 1/1. In the 4th they were 5/11 (45.5%). The Clippers didnt shut down the three in the 2nd half or 4th of game 3. 11 attempts a quarter and 5 makes is pace for 20/44, Clippers dd contain other areas.

Similar shots, more misses. Hardaway missed shots that in the first three games were splash. From video box score. First quarter they missed a couple off the dribble, but also some open catch and shoot. 2nd quarter lot of wide open misses. Overall in the game, open: 3/15 (20%), wide open 2/10 (20%). Tight 0/5. So even taking away their 0/5 on tightly contested shots they were 5/25 (20%) on open and wide open. For a 36% 3PT shooting team that shot 47% 3PT three straight games on similar shots to what they got all season, variance alone can have them down to 28-30%. Defense can cause more tightly contested shots, and maybe add another miss or two, but defense alone didnt take them from a 36% team to 17%.

Kleber, Hardaway, KP and Brunson were 1/13 3PT, they missed shots which if this was another game from this series they would have been 6-7/13. Kristaps was draining from 29-30 and last night missed open catch and shoot with decent at best contest. It's similar to how Reggie and Morris did not get more open shots than what they got in game 1 and were 0/9.

It's always hard to predict, but my guess would be that for the upcoming game, if they get the same looks as this game and the defense is good, we see them closer to 34-37% range, around average for them, and that's a lot more manageable than 47%+

[NickP]

When wide open, Dallas only shot 37.0% 3PT over the whole season. When just open, they shot 36.9%, basically no difference, as long as it was open or better, they shot 37% 3PT. First three games they shot 50.5% 3PT, Hardaway shot 65% 3PT. Bad defense alone does not account for that.

They were 5/12 (41.7%) on tightly contested three's (regular season 29.7%), and made 2-2 of their very tightly contested three's. Overall on more contested three's, which most teams try to avoid (only 5 teams had higher than 5.6% of their 3PA's as tightly contested), they were 7/14 over the first three games. A lot of bad defense is played around the league and opponents don't carve that up with 50%+ 3PT shooting.

They were 5/30 tonight. Not only did they stink it up, this is the least amount of attempts they've made in the series (36,34,and 39 before tonight).

That was defense.

Plus, while it may not be all poor defense that got them those numbers, those numbers are nearly impossible to hit without poor defense and without having mostly open, in rhythm looks. I doubt anybody believes if we went small and with the lineups we have now, they would have shot the way they did in Los Angeles

Further, I want to know what threes they are calling tightly contested in this series. Zub on Luka gets a hand up but it's clear it's not a real contest and doesn't bother Luka any. If those are going in as contests, I've got an objection to that. If there is any disagreement with that, then how about the person disagreeing go back to our game plans from Game 1, 2 and the start of Game 3 and let's make a bet on whether Luka gets hot from DT again when we switch Zub onto him.

I'd say both. I wouldn't call it an either or, but both. I didn't see the same miscommunication on defense I outlined previously. That said, good defense doesn't make NBA teams consistently shoot 5/30 just like bad defense won't consistently have them shooting >50%. Good defense for example forces 1-2 more misses from 3PT, good defense alone based on the looks they got could get them to 8-9/30. Regardless of what three's they are calling contested, the majority of three's NBA teams take will be open or wide open (for NBA players of course), they don't take many three's with tight contest. Around 90% plus of attempted three's are open or wide open.

It was definitely both, check out the video box score of their attempts:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FG3A&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042000174&PlayerID=0&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612742&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

(I love video box score if you guys haven't realized, don't mention it often, but it's how I like to review parts of games I have forgotten)

Dallas taking fewer 3PT in first three games, kinda. Dallas during the regular season took 38.1 3PA. Games 1-3 they averaged 36.3, but because the pace was slower that doesn't necessarily mean on a per possession basis they were taking less, but the Clippers weren't giving them more and definitely not statistically significantly more three's per possession than they regularly get.

2nd half of game 3. In the second half of game 3 they were 8/17 3PT (47.1%). Kleber was 2/3, Brunson was 2/4, Hardaway 1/1. In the 4th they were 5/11 (45.5%). The Clippers didnt shut down the three in the 2nd half or 4th of game 3. 11 attempts a quarter and 5 makes is pace for 20/44, Clippers dd contain other areas.

Similar shots, more misses. Hardaway missed shots that in the first three games were splash. From video box score. First quarter they missed a couple off the dribble, but also some open catch and shoot. 2nd quarter lot of wide open misses. Overall in the game, open: 3/15 (20%), wide open 2/10. Tight 0/5. So even taking away their 0/5 on tightly contested shots they were 5/20 (25%) on open and wide open. For a 36% 3PT shooting team that shot 47% 3PT three straight games on similar shots to what they got all season, variance alone can have them down to 28-30%. Defense can cause more tightly contested shots, and maybe add another miss or two, but defense alone didnt take them from a 36% team to 17%.

Kleber, Hardaway, KP and Brunson were 1/13 3PT, they missed shots which if this was another game from this series they would have been 6-7/13. Kristaps was draining from 29-30 and last night missed open catch and shoot with decent at best contest. It's similar to how Reggie and Morris did not get more open shots than what they got in game 1 and were 0/9.

It's always hard to predict, but my guess would be that for the upcoming game, if they get the same looks as this game and the defense is good, we see them closer to 34-37% range, around average for them, and that's a lot more manageable than 47%+

A good defense is denying the 3 point shooter the ball in the first place. No matter how good a defender you are, a shooter will knock that shot down if he's in rhythm. A lot of these guys will take a side dribble or a step back. Of course great defense may make a shooter miss on occasion but simply raising both hands doesn't do much.

[nickhx2]

so how's this video box score work exactly? you can literally filter out for any type of possession in any game and watch the exact snippet?

i didn't see how to clear out your preset filters - can i watch a game from start to end via possession, too?

[og15]

so how's this video box score work exactly? you can literally filter out for any type of possession in any game and watch the exact snippet?

i didn't see how to clear out your preset filters - can i watch a game from start to end via possession, too?

Click a certain stat, then it will show a link to all the possessions involving that. So click 3PM, it will give you a list of all 3PM with who made it and the time stamp. Etc.

You can watch things like all the makes by the team, by a certain player, all assists, etc.

Here's the landing page for LAC vs DAL.

https://www.nba.com/game/lac-vs-dal-0042000174/box-score

Anything that has a blue clickable link you can see all the videos of that play. For example, all of Kawhi's FGA: https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042000174&PlayerID=202695&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612746&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

Only thing you can't see are FT'S (who wants to) and fouls.

[TucsonClip]

The video box scores are amazing and what I caused to cut up video back in my writing days for he breakdowns.