The Next Phase in Trae's Development

[Jamaaliver]

I wonder if anyone can post Trae’s shot chart from the game.

The shot chart shows Trae has a cluster of shots around the free throw line which tend to be lower percentage shots and he shots them at a low percentage. He also has 1 shot for the entire game from the 3 point line. It would seem Trae is too good a shooter to take 1 non-logo 3 point shot.

Curious if people agree if Trae gave up the ball instead of taking foul line 2’s and reset Curry like off the ball, I could see Trae increasing his made 3’s significantly. He can make catch and shoot 3’s all day and shooting just 1 in the game isn’t enough. Teams will have to go into rotation to cover our 3 point shooters which should leave Trae wide open on the reset.

The shots from the free throw line and mid range area are mostly floaters. Despite his reputation for deep threes, it’s his floater that is the most consistent and effective part of his scoring arsenal.

It’s also the only legitimate inside scoring move he offers.

Catch and shoot opportunities for him are ideal as he shoots best from deep when his feet are already set. But forgoing those floaters would be a mistake. His ability to shoot from deep keeps defenders off balance and allows him to drive past for higher percentage shots. His effective floater buys him space to put up those threes we all enjoy so much.

He took what the defense gave him last game. I wouldn’t ask him to change too much until NY Knicks show they have a way to stop him.

(But Collins and Capela need to score more in the half court.)

[Sactowndog]

I wonder if anyone can post Trae’s shot chart from the game.

The shot chart shows Trae has a cluster of shots around the free throw line which tend to be lower percentage shots and he shots them at a low percentage. He also has 1 shot for the entire game from the 3 point line. It would seem Trae is too good a shooter to take 1 non-logo 3 point shot.

Curious if people agree if Trae gave up the ball instead of taking foul line 2’s and reset Curry like off the ball, I could see Trae increasing his made 3’s significantly. He can make catch and shoot 3’s all day and shooting just 1 in the game isn’t enough. Teams will have to go into rotation to cover our 3 point shooters which should leave Trae wide open on the reset.

The shots from the free throw line and mid range area are mostly floaters. Despite his reputation for deep threes, it’s his floater that is the most consistent and effective part of his scoring arsenal.

It’s also the only legitimate inside scoring move he offers.

Catch and shoot opportunities for him are ideal as he shoots best from deep when his feet are already set. But forgoing those floaters would be a mistake. His ability to shoot from deep keeps defenders off balance and allows him to drive past for higher percentage shots. His effective floater buys him space to put up those threes we all enjoy so much.

He took what the defense gave him last game. I wouldn’t ask him to change too much until NY Knicks show they have a way to stop him.

(But Collins and Capela need to score more in the half court.)

Yeah hard to have a good fact based discussion without looking at the data. But unfortunately I can’t figure out how to post an image in this software.

[Jamaaliver]

Yeah hard to have a good fact based discussion without looking at the data. But unfortunately I can’t figure out how to post an image in this software.

The Knicks intentionally sold out to stop nTrae 3 pointers and cut off Trae lob passes to Capela -- leaving the mid range wide open. TY thrived in that open area. Knicks will clearly adjust moving forward.

Young averaged 1.09 points-per-possession this season when running the pick-and-roll, including pass-outs, which put him in the 87th percentile according to Synergy Sports. Young ran 32 pick-and-rolls Sunday as the ball-handler and the Hawks scored 37 points — averaging 1.16 points per possession.

The Knicks just could not contain him. They played drop coverage, choosing to have the big defending the pick-and-roll drop to the rim along with screening Hawks big man, fearful of the lob to Clint Capela and ostensibly alright with leaving the mid-range for Young to exploit. While Capela finished with nine points on 4-of-7 shooting, Young took advantage of what he was given.

Young only took three 3s against New York. Instead, he lived in the short mid-range area between 4 to 14 feet, taking 12 shots in that space and hitting seven.

The Hawks ran Young off screens and double screens and allowed him to turn a corner and make the Knicks rely on a help defender coming over or hope Young made a bad decision.

The Athletic

[Sactowndog]

Yeah hard to have a good fact based discussion without looking at the data. But unfortunately I can’t figure out how to post an image in this software.

The Knicks intentionally sold out to stop nTrae 3 pointers and cut off Trae lob passes to Capela -- leaving the mid range wide open. TY thrived in that open area. Knicks will clearly adjust moving forward.

Young averaged 1.09 points-per-possession this season when running the pick-and-roll, including pass-outs, which put him in the 87th percentile according to Synergy Sports. Young ran 32 pick-and-rolls Sunday as the ball-handler and the Hawks scored 37 points — averaging 1.16 points per possession.

The Knicks just could not contain him. They played drop coverage, choosing to have the big defending the pick-and-roll drop to the rim along with screening Hawks big man, fearful of the lob to Clint Capela and ostensibly alright with leaving the mid-range for Young to exploit. While Capela finished with nine points on 4-of-7 shooting, Young took advantage of what he was given.

Young only took three 3s against New York. Instead, he lived in the short mid-range area between 4 to 14 feet, taking 12 shots in that space and hitting seven.

The Hawks ran Young off screens and double screens and allowed him to turn a corner and make the Knicks rely on a help defender coming over or hope Young made a bad decision.

The Athletic

I think the accurate chart would be the ESPN tracking chart which shows the exact spots from where he shot versus putting things in arbitrary buckets that hide the data. From Trae’s chart you see a cluster of misses around the free throw line and almost no shots at the three point line.

I think those longer floaters are low percentage low expected value shots. Trae would be better off to kick those out to open shooters and reset at the 3 point line for a catch and shot three. Those shots would be both higher percentage and higher expected value shots.

[Jamaaliver]

I think the accurate chart would be the ESPN tracking chart which shows the exact spots from where he shot versus putting things in arbitrary buckets that hide the data. From Trae’s chart you see a cluster of misses around the free throw line and almost no shots at the three point line.

I think those longer floaters are low percentage low expected value shots. Trae would be better off to kick those out to open shooters and reset at the 3 point line for a catch and shot three. Those shots would be both higher percentage and higher expected value shots.

LOL

Well, now you're just being difficult.

Trae took more shots in the 4-14 feet area of the court than anywhere else and hit on 58% of these shots.

Including the game winner.

Beyond that...

[jayu70]

Yeah hard to have a good fact based discussion without looking at the data. But unfortunately I can’t figure out how to post an image in this software.

The Knicks intentionally sold out to stop nTrae 3 pointers and cut off Trae lob passes to Capela -- leaving the mid range wide open. TY thrived in that open area. Knicks will clearly adjust moving forward.

Young averaged 1.09 points-per-possession this season when running the pick-and-roll, including pass-outs, which put him in the 87th percentile according to Synergy Sports. Young ran 32 pick-and-rolls Sunday as the ball-handler and the Hawks scored 37 points — averaging 1.16 points per possession.

The Knicks just could not contain him. They played drop coverage, choosing to have the big defending the pick-and-roll drop to the rim along with screening Hawks big man, fearful of the lob to Clint Capela and ostensibly alright with leaving the mid-range for Young to exploit. While Capela finished with nine points on 4-of-7 shooting, Young took advantage of what he was given.

Young only took three 3s against New York. Instead, he lived in the short mid-range area between 4 to 14 feet, taking 12 shots in that space and hitting seven.

The Hawks ran Young off screens and double screens and allowed him to turn a corner and make the Knicks rely on a help defender coming over or hope Young made a bad decision.

The Athletic

I think the accurate chart would be the ESPN tracking chart which shows the exact spots from where he shot versus putting things in arbitrary buckets that hide the data. From Trae’s chart you see a cluster of misses around the free throw line and almost no shots at the three point line.

I think those longer floaters are low percentage low expected value shots. Trae would be better off to kick those out to open shooters and reset at the 3 point line for a catch and shot three. Those shots would be both higher percentage and higher expected value shots.

They weren't all floaters though - And unless you can go back and look at each play and see what the rest of the action was like who was actually open this is moot.

[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

Just started following the Hawks because of Bogi but Trae’s game annoys the hell out of me...

Floaters are great but floaters from the free throw line not so much.

Spoiler:

From Trae’s chart you see a cluster of misses around the free throw line and almost no shots at the three point line.

I think those longer floaters are low percentage low expected value shots. Trae would be better off to kick those out to open shooters and reset at the 3 point line for a catch and shot three. Those shots would be both higher percentage and higher expected value shots.

The shot chart shows Trae has a cluster of shots around the free throw line which tend to be lower percentage shots and he shots them at a low percentage. He also has 1 shot for the entire game from the 3 point line.

I think you might be on the wrong side of this debate.

ESPN has a great in depth article on the rising use of floaters by the next wave of young stars. He singles out Trae's effectiveness with the floater as an example of how dangerous a move it has become.

How Trae Young, Ja Morant are making the floater the 2-pointer of the future

Welcome to the Floater Era (The Floatera?), folks. Your tour guides will be the best young guards on the planet.

Game 1 of the Knicks-Hawks series was an instant classic whose outcome turned on a pair of floaters at the very end. First, Derrick Rose tied the game with a clutch version with 9.8 seconds left. Not to be outdone, Young returned the favor, lifting the Hawks to victory with his own clutch floater.

...we're seeing an unprecedented rise in the use of floaters around the league.

The reason is simple: There has been a massive leaguewide increase in drives to the basket.

Despite the 3-point revolution, the best shots in the sport still occur close to the basket. That hasn't changed. But the ways teams are getting those shots and the players who are taking them has. The rise of these young "Float Goats" is proof that this shot type is emerging as a future fundamental for elite on-ball playmakers. The young man's dagger has already become a weapon of choice for many of the league's best young guards.

Young has become the most prolific user of the floater in the whole league. This season Young converted 45.6% of a league-leading 252 attempts. Nobody else in the league crossed the 200 mark.



While Young is rightfully developing a reputation for being among the league's most brash deep-range 3-point shooters, any scouting report that doesn't provide insight into his use of the floater is incomplete. He is much more than a long-range bomber, and his approach to scoring inside the arc provides a helpful glimpse into how the younger generation of scoring guards look to get their buckets.

Ja Morant and Luka Doncic exhibit similar 2-point shooting tendencies, being more likely to shoot floaters than pull-ups. Meanwhile, older point guards like Chris Paul and Kemba Walker are more than three times as likely to take a pull-up than a floater. It's a sign of the times: Midrange pull-ups are an endangered species; floaters are not.

The pace-and-space era forced defenses to emphasize protecting the rim and the 3-point line, and it opened up the midrange area for cleaner looks -- which modern offenses tried to avoid taking. But as defenses become more and more content with allowing midrange looks, the ability to score from the floater zone is becoming a vital skill.

Today's best guards must be able to shoot 3s, throw lobs and get their own buckets in the teeth of the defense. Players like Young, Morant, and Doncic excel in each of these key facets, and floaters are a huge part of that, as the league's backcourt players suddenly become its primary frontcourt producers. Bottom line, as the older generation of point guards hand the keys over to the young guys, floaters are poised to become the new midrange.

ESPN

[Sactowndog]

Just started following the Hawks because of Bogi but Trae’s game annoys the hell out of me...

Floaters are great but floaters from the free throw line not so much.

Spoiler:

From Trae’s chart you see a cluster of misses around the free throw line and almost no shots at the three point line.

I think those longer floaters are low percentage low expected value shots. Trae would be better off to kick those out to open shooters and reset at the 3 point line for a catch and shot three. Those shots would be both higher percentage and higher expected value shots.

The shot chart shows Trae has a cluster of shots around the free throw line which tend to be lower percentage shots and he shots them at a low percentage. He also has 1 shot for the entire game from the 3 point line.

I think you might be on the wrong side of this debate.

ESPN has a great in depth article on the rising use of floaters by the next wave of young stars. He singles out Trae's effectiveness with the floater as an example of how dangerous a move it has become.

How Trae Young, Ja Morant are making the floater the 2-pointer of the future

Welcome to the Floater Era (The Floatera?), folks. Your tour guides will be the best young guards on the planet.

Game 1 of the Knicks-Hawks series was an instant classic whose outcome turned on a pair of floaters at the very end. First, Derrick Rose tied the game with a clutch version with 9.8 seconds left. Not to be outdone, Young returned the favor, lifting the Hawks to victory with his own clutch floater.

...we're seeing an unprecedented rise in the use of floaters around the league.

The reason is simple: There has been a massive leaguewide increase in drives to the basket.

Despite the 3-point revolution, the best shots in the sport still occur close to the basket. That hasn't changed. But the ways teams are getting those shots and the players who are taking them has. The rise of these young "Float Goats" is proof that this shot type is emerging as a future fundamental for elite on-ball playmakers. The young man's dagger has already become a weapon of choice for many of the league's best young guards.

Young has become the most prolific user of the floater in the whole league. This season Young converted 45.6% of a league-leading 252 attempts. Nobody else in the league crossed the 200 mark.



While Young is rightfully developing a reputation for being among the league's most brash deep-range 3-point shooters, any scouting report that doesn't provide insight into his use of the floater is incomplete. He is much more than a long-range bomber, and his approach to scoring inside the arc provides a helpful glimpse into how the younger generation of scoring guards look to get their buckets.

Ja Morant and Luka Doncic exhibit similar 2-point shooting tendencies, being more likely to shoot floaters than pull-ups. Meanwhile, older point guards like Chris Paul and Kemba Walker are more than three times as likely to take a pull-up than a floater. It's a sign of the times: Midrange pull-ups are an endangered species; floaters are not.

The pace-and-space era forced defenses to emphasize protecting the rim and the 3-point line, and it opened up the midrange area for cleaner looks -- which modern offenses tried to avoid taking. But as defenses become more and more content with allowing midrange looks, the ability to score from the floater zone is becoming a vital skill.

Today's best guards must be able to shoot 3s, throw lobs and get their own buckets in the teeth of the defense. Players like Young, Morant, and Doncic excel in each of these key facets, and floaters are a huge part of that, as the league's backcourt players suddenly become its primary frontcourt producers. Bottom line, as the older generation of point guards hand the keys over to the young guys, floaters are poised to become the new midrange.

ESPN

Well I’m not sure how much I care to continue the discussion as it seems to come across anti-Trae and that’s not my intent. Nor am I anti floater. I will just point out the cluster of misses from your excellent graphic around the free throw line and say clearly floaters in that range are a lower percentage shot.

In the first quarter of Game 2, Trae was doing a great job of getting a foot in the paint around the free throw line and finding open 3 point shooters. Given how well Atlanta shoots those were converted for a lead. I thought from that range what Trae was doing in the first half was super effective. In the second half he did it less but shooters like Gallo and Bogi couldn’t throw it in the ocean so not sure Trae had an option.

[jayu70]

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[jayu70]

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[jayu70]

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How has Young disarmed New York’s barb-wired defense?

“Because I’ve had so much preparation,” Young said. “I’ve worked extremely hard to get to this position. I’ve prepared, it feels like my whole life, for this stage and this moment. For me it’s about all the work I put in behind the scenes makes it easier for the game.”

The Knicks couldn’t handle Young in Game 1. He scored repeatedly in the paint, beat them on the final play and shushed their fans in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks couldn’t slow Young in Game 3. They forced Young to give up the ball, so he spread the ball around to the many hot Hawks shooters.

The Knicks really didn’t slow Young in their Game 2 victory. Hawks reserves floundered in that game as Nate McMillan left Young and the other starters on the bench too long. McMillan changed his strategy for Game 3. Young played the entire first quarter and McMillan staggered minutes for his starters. Either Young or Bogdan Bogdanovic were on the court for all but a few moments.

[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

The floater that Trae has perfected is now the next big skill set scouts look for in scoring guards coming into the NBA....sweet!!!

Trae changes the game in his own, unique way.

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[homecourtloss]

Posted this on the GB, but I was just marveling at how Young controlled the series and that the Knicks looked helpless against him. This is so, so rare for a playoff debut. Only special players can do this. People have doubted his impact at whatever the next level was (won’t do this in college, won’t do this in the NBA, won’t do this in the playoffs, etc., and they’ve been wrong every time).

Hawks +13.3 with Trae on court per 100 possessions
Hawks -4.4 with Trae off court per 100 possessions
+17.7 NET On-off

—Knicks never outscored the Hawks with Trae on court. In fact, only after the first quarter in game 1 and after the 3rd quarter in game 3 was he ever in the minus and even then, the Hawks were better with him on court.

+0, +5, +9, +17, +16 in games 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively

—Hawks’ defense 3.0 points per 100 possessions better with Trae off court, but Trae wasn’t a defensive liability in this series at all. This is the progression everyone looked for—would he be a massive liability in the playoffs when teams hunted for him.

+9.1 BPM which is all-time great type numbers for a rookie debut though it’s been only one series. I think this number will come down but will still be around at least +7 after the Sixers series which is very winnable now with the Embiid situation. Can Young be the best player on a title team with the hyper talented league currently? I don’t know, probably not likely, but the way he’s controlling the games is incredible. +9 BPM in the playoffs is crazy good.

Rookie playoff debuts BPMs for comparison (not saying he will be among these players nor that all situations are equal, i.e., teams played, roles, etc., but showing how rare a +9 BPM is for a rookie)

Kareem: BPM not available but likely +9 to +10, lost EDF 1-4
Wilt: BPM not available but likely +9 to +10, lost EDF 2-4
Jordan, +9.5 over 4 games, lost 1st round series 1-3
Magic, +8.0 over 16 games, won Finals
LeBron, +7.5 over 13 games, lost second round series 3-4
Dirk, +6.3 over 10 games, lost second round series 1-4
Barkley, +4.4 over 13 games, lost ECF 1-4
Bird, +4.3 over 9 games, lost ECF 1-4
Duncan, +3.8 over 9 games, lost in second round, 1-4
Hakeem, +3.8 over 5 games, lost in first round 2-3
Shaq, +2.2 over 3 games, swept in first round
Durant, +2.1 over 6 games, lost in the first round 2-3
KG, +1.2 over 3 games, swept in first round

[jayu70]

This is GLORIOUS!!!

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[jayu70]

I think this is Steve Holman, Radio voice for the Hawks.

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[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

Trae's debut in Round 2 was solid --

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[jayu70]

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