Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[Curmudgeon]

I wonder is it is possible to produce a vaccine that protects against a range of coronaviruses, so that one shot would protect against covid and the flu.

[exculpatory]

Not inconceivable at one point.
Not imminent.

[Green89]

There are many VERY experienced & smarter than hell epidemiologists, infectious disease physicians & immunologists involved with these studies.

I trust their projections.

The chances are excellent that the data reported in the outstanding citations I provided will hold up when additional data is obtained/analyzed as time goes by in huge numbers of patients. We shall see.

The duration of immunity is expected to be considerable. We shall see.

The need for an additional VAX down the road will be contingent on which variant is expected to predominate in the next wave of Covid, the susceptibility of that variant to the current vaccines, & the duration of immunity induced by the current vaccines to the original wild type virus.

What are epidemiologists thoughts on where they think covid-19 will end up? An annual and varying strain virus with us for the long haul, or fizzle out after 1.5-2 years?

[exculpatory]

There are many VERY experienced & smarter than hell epidemiologists, infectious disease physicians & immunologists involved with these studies.

I trust their projections.

The chances are excellent that the data reported in the outstanding citations I provided will hold up when additional data is obtained/analyzed as time goes by in huge numbers of patients. We shall see.

The duration of immunity is expected to be considerable. We shall see.

The need for an additional VAX down the road will be contingent on which variant is expected to predominate in the next wave of Covid, the susceptibility of that variant to the current vaccines, & the duration of immunity induced by the current vaccines to the original wild type virus.

What are epidemiologists thoughts on where they think covid-19 will end up? An annual and varying strain virus with us for the long haul, or fizzle out after 1.5-2 years?

Unfortunately, most of what I have read suggests the former.

Time will tell.

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

I received my second shot yesterday. I don't feel horrible just a little off. I didn't sleep particularly while last night but I'm hoping by tomorrow I'm back to normal.

Regardless I'm happy it's done but I'm curious to see what the future holds with these shots and vaccines whether or not We need boosters or have to get this done every 6 months

[exculpatory]

If there is excess vaccine lying around with an expiration date for its use & the demand is not there, maybe I will get myself a third shot. This is being studied already by Pfizer & Moderna. My preliminary sense is that it will bolster & prolong immunity.

[exculpatory]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMicm2030770

I made this diagnosis once.

[Fencer reregistered]

If there is excess vaccine lying around with an expiration date for its use & the demand is not there, maybe I will get myself a third shot. This is being studied already by Pfizer & Moderna. My preliminary sense is that it will bolster & prolong immunity.

There is much demand in other countries.

[Curmudgeon]

If there is excess vaccine lying around with an expiration date for its use & the demand is not there, maybe I will get myself a third shot. This is being studied already by Pfizer & Moderna. My preliminary sense is that it will bolster & prolong immunity.

There is much demand in other countries.

Except that, particularly in the case of the Pfizer vaccine, they can't keep it cold enough long enough, and at some point it's use it or lose it.

[Fencer reregistered]

If there is excess vaccine lying around with an expiration date for its use & the demand is not there, maybe I will get myself a third shot. This is being studied already by Pfizer & Moderna. My preliminary sense is that it will bolster & prolong immunity.

There is much demand in other countries.

Except that, particularly in the case of the Pfizer vaccine, they can't keep it cold enough long enough, and at some point it's use it or lose it.

Agreed. Shipping it overseas would be challenging.

[exculpatory]

If there is excess vaccine lying around with an expiration date for its use & the demand is not there, maybe I will get myself a third shot. This is being studied already by Pfizer & Moderna. My preliminary sense is that it will bolster & prolong immunity.

There is much demand in other countries.

Except that, particularly in the case of the Pfizer vaccine, they can't keep it cold enough long enough, and at some point it's use it or lose it.

As I wrote, Fencer.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Well, my province now has the highest rate of covid cases per capita in Canada. We also have the highest murder rate per capita. And also, my city (Winnipeg) has been the Slurpee capital of the world for 20 straight years.

Spoiler:

[ConstableGeneva]

1st dose done. Thank you science and all the people involved in making these vaccines happen. **** this pandemic. **** it to hell.

[djFan71]

Fully vaxed today - I had 2nd shot 2 weeks ago. Which is great since I am flying to FL next week. I would've cancelled if I couldn't get it in, but the timing just worked out.

[jmr07019]

Is the Wall Street Journal now a conspiracy theorist rag or are they just 12ish months slow on the story? To be honest I don't care but it's interesting that this was published after so many said there was no chance it could have come from the lab.

Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228

[soxfan2003]

Is the Wall Street Journal now a conspiracy theorist rag or are they just 12ish months slow on the story? To be honest I don't care but it's interesting that this was published after so many said there was no chance it could have come from the lab.

Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228

Forget the Wall Street Journal which is a paper with fairly good publishing standards, more and more US scientists every day are saying lab accident hypothesis is a very legitimate one. Over a year ago, several scientists privately told me what I already suspected from working in the industry that it was very possible.

I am familiar with the various levels of biosafety from having to comply with the procedures myself and from having worked in labs with Chinese American scientists born in China in some cases. Put it this way if you privately polled this group of people no media member would ever have ruled out lab accident. They would have just started it off as being a smaller possibility that a more natural transmission but would have raised the possibility when they factored in how suspicious China has acted. In fact, they would have really thought it was a huge possibility given China's past history with lab safety and how they were acting even months after the virus started spreading.

One thing I learned from working in life sciences is how when people say "not possible", you really have to dig deeper since the field is so damn specialized even within the same company some very intelligent scientists will just have a very generalized understanding what other scientists are doing and at at the end of the day they are working on the same biotech drug. Other than stuff way out there, tough for any scientist not acting irresponsible to say "not possible".

"Not possible" to my current knowledge and my colleagues current knowledge but we should still investigate further is much better.

[exculpatory]

Is the Wall Street Journal now a conspiracy theorist rag or are they just 12ish months slow on the story? To be honest I don't care but it's interesting that this was published after so many said there was no chance it could have come from the lab.

Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228

Forget the Wall Street Journal which is a paper with fairly good publishing standards. More and more US scientists every day are saying the lab accident hypothesis is a very legitimate one. Over a year ago, several scientists privately told me what I already suspected from working in the industry - that it was very possible.

I am familiar with the various levels of biosafety from having to comply with the procedures myself and from having worked in labs with Chinese American scientists born in China in some cases. Put it this way - if you privately polled this group of people, no media member would ever have ruled out lab accident. They would have just started it off as being a smaller possibility than a more natural transmission, but would have raised the possibility when they factored in how SUSPICIOUSLY China has acted. In fact, they would have really thought it was a huge possibility given China's past history with lab safety and how they were acting even months after the virus started spreading.

One thing I learned from working in life sciences is how when people say "not possible", you really have to dig deeper since the field is so damn specialized even within the same company. Some very intelligent scientists will just have a very generalized understanding of what other scientists are doing and, at the end of the day, they are working on the same biotech drug. Other than stuff way out there, tough for any scientist not acting IRRESPONSIBLY to say "not possible".

"Not possible" to my current knowledge and my colleagues current knowledge - but we should still investigate further is much better.

Three comments:

1. Outstanding & IMO very correct post.
2. This was clear long long long ago, but the unspeakably & despicably biased PC main stream media could not possibly allow Trump (indeed a reprehensible persona) & multiple Senators on the right to be “correct”. It is entirely possible that the CCP is entirely responsible for this horrific cataclysm, and they will NEVER come clean. Fauci, a man I admire a great deal (and that takes some doing) has disappointed me for the first time. It is “possible” & should be thoroughly investigated whether his NIAID “inappropriately” granted huge dollars to a third party who then passed those dollars on to the Wuhan virology laboratory - who then performed gain of function research with inadequate safety standards.
3. Adverbs modify verbs (see edits).

[Curmudgeon]

Where it originated is a political issue, not a medical one. So let's say the lab in Wuhan screwed up and somehow it can be proved (unlikely). Is anyone going to demand reparations from the Chinese government? And even if they do, what will the Chinese response be, other than "Go pound sand?" And if an individual at the Wuhan lab screwed up, should the entire lab be responsible, or just the people responsible for security?

The whole thing is a cruel snipe hunt intended to mollify people outside China who want to blame China for their own political gain.

[jmr07019]

Where it originated is a political issue, not a medical one. So let's say the lab in Wuhan screwed up and somehow it can be proved (unlikely). Is anyone going to demand reparations from the Chinese government? And even if they do, what will the Chinese response be, other than "Go pound sand?" And if an individual at the Wuhan lab screwed up, should the entire lab be responsible, or just the people responsible for security?

The whole thing is a cruel snipe hunt intended to mollify people outside China who want to blame China for their own political gain.

wanting to know the truth about a once in a hundred year pandemic is racist. got it

[Bad-Thoma]

Where it originated is a political issue, not a medical one. So let's say the lab in Wuhan screwed up and somehow it can be proved (unlikely). Is anyone going to demand reparations from the Chinese government? And even if they do, what will the Chinese response be, other than "Go pound sand?" And if an individual at the Wuhan lab screwed up, should the entire lab be responsible, or just the people responsible for security?

The whole thing is a cruel snipe hunt intended to mollify people outside China who want to blame China for their own political gain.

wanting to know the truth about a once in a hundred year pandemic is racist. got it

No, but instantly assuming it's true because it's reported on Fox news and next to no where else early in the pandemic certainly points in that direction. After a year of the right people with the right training tracing it to it's source is a different story (and one I haven't been following so I'm not commenting on whether it came from a lab or not). You don't just assume someone's guilty without proper evidence and a trial, unless of course you're an ****.