WC | Rd. 2| (2) Suns vs (3) Nuggets [4-0 Suns]

[raptor jesus]

Nuggets are +180 to win the series. To me, that's the best value of any 2nd round matchup.

[bwgood77]

interesting matchup.

Jokic vs Ayton is huge. Ayton is a good defender but there's only so much you can do against offensive talent like Jokic, he will get his. Maybe the Suns biggest weakness is frontcourt depth. If the Nuggets can get Ayton in foul trouble, they should be able to absolutely feast on Kaminsky and Saric.

The backcourt matchup goes the other way. campazzo/rivers is a huge mismatch against booker/paul even with CP3 playing at like 75%.

CP3's health is a huge question mark. His ability to attack bigs in the PnR was the Suns go-to when the offense got bogged down all season. With his shoulder right now he just can't do that. You saw LA have success in those scenarios when they were able to load up more aggressively against Booker and CP3 couldn't make them pay because the jumper isn't there yet.

Biased but i think this one leans Suns, and if CP3 can get healthy over the course of the series I feel pretty good about that. However Phoenix is at a big frontcourt disadvantage, and are putting all of their eggs in the Ayton basket to try and not get destroyed there.

Barton will be back for one of the guard spots. Monte Morris will play more than Campazzo. Still can't really stop the Suns backcourt but Morris a good matchup for Payne....and Barton is solid on offense.

[Janko035]

A lot will depend on what version of CP3 shows up, but generally I favour the Suns. Their biggest advantage is actually the one who is always off the court: coach. If Denver had both Barton and PJ Dozier, I would say they would prevail in 7, but as is, I go with Suns in 6.

[bwgood77]

Ashley can't even quote him correctly...."stopped me 5, 6, 7, 8 times.."

Coming down to Ayton vs Jokic. Ayton has looked up to Jokic as the best center since he entered the league (before mvp year)

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[darmani]

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[bwgood77]

Jokic shot 13/34 (38%) against the Suns when Ayton was the primary defender this season.

Jokic with Ayton on court: - 3.7 NetRtg
Jokic with Ayton off court: +11.8 NetRtg

Ayton in his last 6 games against Jokic:
33 pts, 14 reb, 80% FG
22 pts, 13 reb, 50% FG
28 pts, 19 reb, 62% FG
22 pts, 11 reb, 77% FG
27 pts, 13 reb, 85% FG
17 pts, 13 reb, 50% FG

Suns in 6.

No mention that the Suns were 1-5 in those games? The real tragedy is citing regular season Jokic and expecting him to be the same player in the playoffs. I get a kick out of Jazz/Clippers/Blazer fans telling us they think Gobert/Zubac/Nurkic can contain Jokic.

Don't get me wrong though, Ayton does have the potential to slow Jokic down more than any of those guys. We'll see.

Suns were 2-4 in those games (he only played in 1 last year)

Well the last two were in OT and double OT with no Booker in the entire game or Ayton in the 2nd OT.

And 2 of those were with De'Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo, who were both rookies at the time as his PGs..Melton started and was 0-7 in one game and 1-4 in the other....and of course Ayton was a rookie in those games too and still put up those #s against him.

[Alatan]

No mention that the Suns were 1-5 in those games? The real tragedy is citing regular season Jokic and expecting him to the same player in the playoffs though. I get a kick out of Jazz/Clippers/Blazer fans telling us they think Gobert/Zubac/Nurkic can contain Jokic.

Don't get me wrong though, Ayton does have the potential to slow Jokic down more than any of those guys. We'll see.

Gobert did actually contain Jokic. Murray and the team went off though.

How did he contain Jokic when he had the highest scoring series average against Utah in 2020? Jokic put 26,3 on 51,2 % from the field, 47,7 from three and 74,3 from the line.
You are just making things up.

[Sharkboy242]

Jokic shot 13/34 (38%) against the Suns when Ayton was the primary defender this season.

Jokic with Ayton on court: - 3.7 NetRtg
Jokic with Ayton off court: +11.8 NetRtg

Ayton in his last 6 games against Jokic:
33 pts, 14 reb, 80% FG
22 pts, 13 reb, 50% FG
28 pts, 19 reb, 62% FG
22 pts, 11 reb, 77% FG
27 pts, 13 reb, 85% FG
17 pts, 13 reb, 50% FG

Suns in 6.

No mention that the Suns were 1-5 in those games? The real tragedy is citing regular season Jokic and expecting him to be the same player in the playoffs. I get a kick out of Jazz/Clippers/Blazer fans telling us they think Gobert/Zubac/Nurkic can contain Jokic.

Don't get me wrong though, Ayton does have the potential to slow Jokic down more than any of those guys. We'll see.

Suns were 2-4 in those games (he only played in 1 last year)

Well the last two were in OT and double OT with no Booker in the entire game or Ayton in the 2nd OT.

And 2 of those were with De'Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo, who were both rookies at the time as his PGs..Melton started and was 0-7 in one game and 1-4 in the other....and of course Ayton was a rookie in those games too and still put up those #s against him.

This season the series was 2-1 Denver. Last season it was 4-0 Denver. Not sure where you're pulling that 2nd win from?

All this is besides my point though: the regular season matchup doesn't matter, at all.

[bwgood77]

No mention that the Suns were 1-5 in those games? The real tragedy is citing regular season Jokic and expecting him to be the same player in the playoffs. I get a kick out of Jazz/Clippers/Blazer fans telling us they think Gobert/Zubac/Nurkic can contain Jokic.

Don't get me wrong though, Ayton does have the potential to slow Jokic down more than any of those guys. We'll see.

Suns were 2-4 in those games (he only played in 1 last year)

Well the last two were in OT and double OT with no Booker in the entire game or Ayton in the 2nd OT.

And 2 of those were with De'Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo, who were both rookies at the time as his PGs..Melton started and was 0-7 in one game and 1-4 in the other....and of course Ayton was a rookie in those games too and still put up those #s against him.

This season the series was 2-1 Denver. Last season it was 4-0 Denver. Not sure where you're pulling that 2nd win from?

All this is besides my point though: the regular season matchup doesn't matter, at all.

Last year Ayton only played in one of the games. The first two he was suspended for and one of the others he was injured and missed.

So 2 of the games where those #s are listed from are from his rookie season with rookie PGs, and they won one of those, despite starting PG Melton going 0-7. Josh Jackson was also 6-18 and Elie Okobo, Troy Daniels and Quincy Acy were also part of the rotation.

[Sharkboy242]

Suns were 2-4 in those games (he only played in 1 last year)

Well the last two were in OT and double OT with no Booker in the entire game or Ayton in the 2nd OT.

And 2 of those were with De'Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo, who were both rookies at the time as his PGs..Melton started and was 0-7 in one game and 1-4 in the other....and of course Ayton was a rookie in those games too and still put up those #s against him.

This season the series was 2-1 Denver. Last season it was 4-0 Denver. Not sure where you're pulling that 2nd win from?

All this is besides my point though: the regular season matchup doesn't matter, at all.

Last year Ayton only played in one of the games. The first two he was suspended for and one of the others he was injured and missed.

So 2 of the games where those #s are listed from are from his rookie season with rookie PGs, and they won one of those, despite starting PG Melton going 0-7. Josh Jackson was also 6-18 and Elie Okobo, Troy Daniels and Quincy Acy were also part of the rotation.

So you're referring to 18-19 season?

Those are beyond useless metrics to be referencing. Jokic had a perfect triple double on Ayton that season, it doesn't mean anything though. Its really silly to talk about the regular season for this matchu, let alone the regular season 3 years ago lol.

[mcmurphy]

If PHO believes of facing RS Jokic he will make a big mistake... The usage of Jokic in PO increasing from 29% to 36%.
This leads to an enormous effort in those who have to defend him.

Nurkic that has been always one of best to defend Jokic, increased his Fouls Rate per 100 possessions from 5.7 to 8.8 (+54%).
Yes, Nurkic is fouls prone but probably defend PO Jokic is a no joke.

Ayton in RS had a Fouls Rate per 100 possessions of 4.6 and during the LAL serie against Drummond and Gasol 4.2 (-8%) doesn't seem like he had to work too hard... we'll see against PO Jokic

[bwgood77]

This season the series was 2-1 Denver. Last season it was 4-0 Denver. Not sure where you're pulling that 2nd win from?

All this is besides my point though: the regular season matchup doesn't matter, at all.

Last year Ayton only played in one of the games. The first two he was suspended for and one of the others he was injured and missed.

So 2 of the games where those #s are listed from are from his rookie season with rookie PGs, and they won one of those, despite starting PG Melton going 0-7. Josh Jackson was also 6-18 and Elie Okobo, Troy Daniels and Quincy Acy were also part of the rotation.

So you're referring to 18-19 season?

Those are beyond useless metrics to be referencing. Jokic had a perfect triple double on Ayton that season, it doesn't mean anything though. Its really silly to talk about the regular season for this matchu, let alone the regular season 3 years ago lol.

True, Ayton has really stepped it up in the postseason and has gotten much better defensively every month and they haven't played in 5 months.

Then of course Jokic is a beast in the playoffs.

I don't expect Ayton to stop him but can guard him on the perimeter and all over, and maybe out rebound him and score more efficiently.

[darmani]

If PHO believes of facing RS Jokic he will make a big mistake... The usage of Jokic in PO increasing from 29% to 36%.
This leads to an enormous effort in those who have to defend him.

Nurkic that has been always one of best to defend Jokic, increased his Fouls Rate per 100 possessions from 5.7 to 8.8 (+54%).
Yes, Nurkic is fouls prone but probably defend PO Jokic is a no joke.

Ayton in RS had a Fouls Rate per 100 possessions of 4.6 and during the LAL serie against Drummond and Gasol 4.2 (-8%) doesn't seem like he had to work too hard... we'll see against PO Jokic

Jokic can get into foul trouble too, you know. Booker, CP3 and CP15 will relentlessly attack the rim with Jokic on the court. Watch how they massacred Gasol in the first round. Sure, Jokic is a little bit quicker laterally than Marc, but not THAT much quicker.

[Crives]

Ashley can't even quote him correctly...."stopped me 5, 6, 7, 8 times.."

Coming down to Ayton vs Jokic. Ayton has looked up to Jokic as the best center since he entered the league (before mvp year)

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I cringed pulling her tweet, but couldn’t find this interview anywhere else

[Wigginstime]

Ayton is the key to this series

If he gets in even a little foul trouble the monstrous Denver lineup of Jokic Porter and Gordon is gonna feast

[Jadoogar]

Ayton is the key to this series

If he gets in even a little foul trouble the monstrous Denver lineup of Jokic Porter and Gordon is gonna feast

Suns' backup center situation might be even worse than Portland. Saric/Kaminsky will get get eaten alive. Ayton can't afford to pick up any cheap fouls.

[Crives]

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[FinnTheHuman]

Like in every series for the last 3 years, people pointing out how their center will do just fine vs Jokic because he had some good games against him in the regular season... only for that center to get smacked like a bitch haha.

Jokic in the post-season is a different beast, expect Ayton to look inferior and focus on the advantages in the other positions. Pulling these stats from RS is meaningless, people did that with Nurkic too who has great RS stats vs Jokic, and yet Jokic averaged 33 on him on great efficiency while Nurkic was nowhere to be seen offensively.

Jokic figures his defenders out no matter who they are, there's little hope it won't happen with Ayton, especially because he lacks the physicality.

And then Jokic will try a little bit harder on defense, while Ayton won't be able to focus on the offense because he'll be out of breath because of defending Jokic, and suddenly you'll have him barely in double digits most of the games.

[baldur]

phoenix should be able to qualify.

[BigDan245]

Nuggets big weakness is they'll never be able to go small...So they really don't ever have very many lineup adjustments they can make in a given series...Might not make a difference in this series, but if they play a team like Brooklyn, there's just almost no chance.