2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[prime1time]

Couple great scouting videos on Wagner&Giddey:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

I just wanna get this on record again: Josh Giddey is going to be a star in the NBA. He’s a 6’8 Steve Nash. Sheppard should be locked in on trade up options to get him.

I don't get the Steve Nash comparison at all. Steve was one of the best shooters and passers in the history of the NBA. Giddey is a solid passer who just shot 29% from 3 and 69% from the ft line. If you're trying to build for the future, by all means take Giddey and hope that you hit the jackpot. But personally, I pass. I'm tired of taking players that aren't close to being NBA-ready only to develop them for 3 or 4 years and then trade them or let them walk in free agency.

Giddey may ultimately become a star but it wouldn't happen if we draft him. He needs to go to a team that's rebuilding like OKC where they just let him do what he wants. And they have the time to nurture and grow him. He wouldn't get that playing for us.

In another thread, you quoted me and asked basically why I wrote the obvious.

Who is going to disagree with that? “Acquire 1st round picks and pick good players that perform better than veterans while still on rookie deals”

How are we acquiring those picks? And who are we picking in the draft? The Grizzlies have the absolute best front office in the NBA. We should follow everything they do.

Well here is where the rubber meets the road. Because draffting players like Desmond Bane means that you're passing on a potential star in Josh Giddey. Murphy is a player that can step on the floor and start right away for the Wizards. His 3-point shooting would immediately improve our team's success. Like I said in that the post you were responding to, enough of the Wizards taking homerun picks only to play them out of position and then let another team reap the benefits.

[NatP4]

Not a good practice to draft for fit with a team that just got bounced out of the first round in 5 games. You’ve got a PG that is 33 years old that you pay 40+ million. You should always be building for the future.

I’m sure Murphy will be a good shooter in the NBA, but what else does he do well? He’s 21 on draft night(2-3 years) older than the rest of the wing prospects in the 1st round), doesn’t rebound, can’t pass or dribble, doesn’t get steals or blocks. does he project as an elite defender? I didn’t watch much Virginia basketball this year but I’ve read a handful of in depth scouting reports stating that Murphy is a solid but not great defender that lacks lateral quickness and strength as well as basketball IQ relating to help defense and rim protection.

[Dat2U]

If the Wizards draft Giddey to play him alongside Russ, then yeah their screwing the pooch like they screwed Avdija & TBJ. If the Wizards draft Giddey with the intention of him backing up Russ and eventually replacing him in 2 years then it's a potential win.

That said I've sorta moved off of Giddey because I view him as a trade up option. I'd be shocked if he's still available at 15.

I also assume the pick is very much in play and we may be looking for immediate help.

[NatP4]

I think Jared Butler is the best of both worlds, and definitely going to be there at 15.

[Ruzious]

I think Jared Butler is the best of both worlds, and definitely going to be there at 15.

He's a good trade down option but a poor value pick at 15 - considering most mocks have him as a late 1st. I like him a lot - in the manner that I like George Hill - as an excellent 3rd guard. I don't know about him as a future starter.

[DCZards]

I think Jared Butler is the best of both worlds, and definitely going to be there at 15.

He's a good trade down option but a poor value pick at 15 - considering most mocks have him as a late 1st. I like him a lot - in the manner that I like George Hill - as an excellent 3rd guard. I don't know about him as a future starter.

It’s a big mistake to base your draft day decisions on the mocks, especially when you’re not drafting in the top 5 or 6.

Those mocks are so often very, very wrong—and all over the place. Every year we talk here about players that the mocks were dead wrong about.

If you believe Butler is the best player/fit at 15 you take him and don’t look back.

[Ruzious]

I think Jared Butler is the best of both worlds, and definitely going to be there at 15.

He's a good trade down option but a poor value pick at 15 - considering most mocks have him as a late 1st. I like him a lot - in the manner that I like George Hill - as an excellent 3rd guard. I don't know about him as a future starter.

I think it’s a big mistake to base your draft day decisions on the mocks, especially when you’re not drafting in the top 5 or 6.

Those mocks are so often very, very wrong. Every year we talk here about players that the mocks were dead wrong about.

If you believe Butler is the best player/fit at 15 you take him and don’t look back.

There's a bit of a difference between us and real GM's. Ya gotta use some kind of basis for where others rate the players, so for people like us who are simply speculating - it does make sense to pick mocks that makes sense. It'd be incredibly foolish to pick someone at 15 if he's most likely going to be a late 1st. If a GM does that, he should be fired immediately.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

If the Wizards draft Giddey to play him alongside Russ, then yeah their screwing the pooch like they screwed Avdija & TBJ. If the Wizards draft Giddey with the intention of him backing up Russ and eventually replacing him in 2 years then it's a potential win.

That said I've sorta moved off of Giddey because I view him as a trade up option. I'd be shocked if he's still available at 15.

I also assume the pick is very much in play and we may be looking for immediate help.

I agree I'm not particularly interested in Giddey. I really don't want to draft another player with point forward skills that can't shoot. Brooks has no clue what to do with them. Troy Brown Jr couldn't even get on the court. When he did he stood in the corner and watched Brad and Russ dribble the air out of the ball. Same with Deni, who was relegated to spot up shooter, and became visibly frustrated and ultimately benched while his agent started questioning if this team is a good fit for him.

We need a shooter, and/or someone very good a setting picks, rebounding, a defensive stopper, rim protector. Those are the skills we need. Not a high IQ smooth passer who can't defend or shoot. He'll just end up a spectator on the bench.

And yes I also would be fine with Butler at 15. I don't think 15 is too early, I'd be very happy to get him.

[NatP4]

It’s a mistake to factor in Scott Brooks or Russell Westbrook to any draft day decisions.

IMO, you have a core of Hachimura, Avdija, Gafford, Beal, Bertans, and Bryant. What do we need to add to that to become a championship contender? I would say a high level guard and a lockdown perimeter defender.

[payitforward]

...definitely be interested in a trade down to maybe be able to get 2 of these guys especially if Wagner goes before 15, maybe Knicks (19 & 21) or Rockets (23 & 24)?

Awright! I've got another convert! Stick with it, man, it really feels good!

But... those particular trades are too rich. I'd say that if 15 got you 21 & 31 you'd be doing well. Or 23 & 29.

[payitforward]

...Well here is where the rubber meets the road. Because draffting players like Desmond Bane means that you're passing on a potential star in Josh Giddey. Murphy is a player that can step on the floor and start right away for the Wizards. His 3-point shooting would immediately improve our team's success. ...enough of the Wizards taking home run picks only to play them out of position and then let another team reap the benefits.

This is a very rational approach -- there's a 3-part unstated premise, which should be made explicit:

1. No matter where you pick in the draft, chance is a factor in how it turns out. & the higher you draft, the bigger role chance plays! Why? Because you have higher expectations, & the guy you pick has to be extremely good to meet them.

2. If you have two lower picks, rather than 1 higher pick, there is a higher requirement that your scouting/evaluation people & processes be excellent. The reasons should be obvious.

3. The higher your pick (not including 1-3) the more incentivized you should feel to trade down for multiple picks, because a) with more than one pick, you ameliorate the factor of chance, & b) outstanding scouting/evaluation will always turn up multiple outstanding prospects.

Of course, it may not be possible to make such a trade! But, if it is -- that's what you should be looking for. Plus, of course, you could be that lucky 1-in-a-million team that can only accommodate a single rookie.

Also, as with any such set of "rules," there are exceptions. But for every exception someone points out, one could show many many cases where the above works.

All the same, of course, no matter what smart trade-down moves you make, you can always wind up making bad choices -- but you can do that even if you don't trade down!

But, you do trade down -- the point of this is not to pick Desmond Bane rather than Deni Avdija at #9.

[nate33]

It’s a mistake to factor in Scott Brooks or Russell Westbrook to any draft day decisions.

IMO, you have a core of Hachimura, Avdija, Gafford, Beal, Bertans, and Bryant. What do we need to add to that to become a championship contender? I would say a high level guard and a lockdown perimeter defender.

That's just not realistic, particularly with respect to Westbrook.

We aren't going to draft for a distant future in the post-Westbrook era. We are drafting for now. Beal isn't waiting around for 2 more years.

SUPERBALLMAN makes a very important point that this team is not built to accommodate a non-shooting, point-forward type. It's not the kind of player we need unless there is a complete overhaul in coaching and offensive philosophy, and also, Westbrook would need a brain transplant. If we draft Giddey, we better have a plan in place to trade Westbrook and to either trade Beal or somehow get him on board with a 2-year rebuild. And I don't think that's happening.

If we don't trade the pick, we are going to draft a guy who can fill a role almost immediately. Somebody like Kispert, Moody, Butler or Wagner.

[payitforward]

It’s a mistake to factor in Scott Brooks or Russell Westbrook to any draft day decisions.

IMO, you have a core of Hachimura, Avdija, Gafford, Beal, Bertans, and Bryant. What do we need to add to that to become a championship contender? I would say a high level guard and a lockdown perimeter defender.

How have Hachimura, Avdija or Bertans demonstrated that they should be considered part of any "core" whatever?

The first two have still to establish themselves in the league. We have no idea what level of NBA player either will be -- & so far we have no reason to think of either of them as part of a "core." Certainly that is what we hope, but they're not there yet.

& Bertans had a really bad season. His scoring was down -- & most everything else was also down. His contract may mean we are stuck with him, but he is not core to success.

Finally, Bryant is coming off an injury: if he recovers well, plays at the level we've seen from as a Wizard, then fine. Until we see that, we can only hope that he's part of our core going forward.

& Russ is certainly part of our core!

[NatP4]

It’s a mistake to factor in Scott Brooks or Russell Westbrook to any draft day decisions.

IMO, you have a core of Hachimura, Avdija, Gafford, Beal, Bertans, and Bryant. What do we need to add to that to become a championship contender? I would say a high level guard and a lockdown perimeter defender.

That's just not realistic, particularly with respect to Westbrook.

We aren't going to draft for a distant future in the post-Westbrook era. We are drafting for now. Beal isn't waiting around for 2 more years.

SUPERBALLMAN makes a very important point that this team is not built to accommodate a non-shooting, point-forward type. It's not the kind of player we need unless there is a complete overhaul in coaching and offensive philosophy, and also, Westbrook would need a brain transplant. If we draft Giddey, we better have a plan in place to trade Westbrook and to either trade Beal or somehow get him on board with a 2-year rebuild. And I don't think that's happening.

If we don't trade the pick, we are going to draft a guy who can fill a role almost immediately. Somebody like Kispert, Moody, Butler or Wagner.

That’s a mistake. Pick the BPA always. It would be obnoxiously stupid to think Kispert or Moody is some missing piece on this team. If I’m “running it back” with this group, I am picking Wagner. That’s the best fit and it’s not close.

The “type of player they need” is a good player, at any position or any kind. This team has some talent, but lacks enough talent to contend for a championship. Westbrook had a -14.8 net rating in the playoffs and a -1.2 net rating in the regular season. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. It’s simply not happening with this group.

You are talking about the mediocre treadmill moves the wizards WILL make, I am talking about the moves that I believe they SHOULD make.

And to the Beal point-you say this ALL the time, but when has Beal ever complained about anything with this team? If he wants out, you trade him for a kings ransom. If Giddey has a Lamelo-like rookie season, I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t hear Beal complaining.

I would LOVE to see the reaction from Beal when this team still hovers around .500 with your guy Scott Brooks, on a 1 year extension, while Corey Kispert/Moody gets absolutely destroyed on defense and offer nothing but an occasional corner 3 whenever Beal/Westbrook decide to move the ball.

[nate33]

The “type of player they need” is a good player, at any position or any kind.

The type of player they need is one who will be a contributor by season's end.

This team has some talent, but lacks enough talent to contend for a championship. Westbrook had a -14.8 net rating in the playoffs and a -1.2 net rating in the regular season. He’s going to be 33 years old next year. It’s simply not happening with this group.

You are talking about the mediocre treadmill moves the wizards WILL make, I am talking about the moves that I believe they SHOULD make.

Then you are talking about blowing it up. I'm fine with that, but it's clearly not the direction they're going in.

And to the Beal point-you say this ALL the time, but when has Beal ever complained about anything with this team? If he wants out, you trade him for a kings ransom. If Giddey has a Lamelo-like rookie season, I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t hear Beal complaining.

And if Giddey has a useless rookie season because he can't shoot or play off ball and he isn't yet developed enough at age 19 to be the primary initiator, then we might hear Beal ask to be traded.

I would LOVE to see the reaction from Beal when this team still hovers around .500 with your guy Scott Brooks, on a 1 year extension, while Corey Kispert/Moody gets absolutely destroyed on defense and offer nothing but an occasional corner 3 whenever Beal/Westbrook decide to move the ball.

Brooks is not my guy. I want him gone too. But that doesn't mean I'm incapable of noticing when he occasionally makes good coaching decisions from time to time. You act like it's some sort of sin to notice the good with the bad. That just makes you not credible in your unrelenting criticism.

[NatP4]

Are you advocating for this direction or stating reality?

What is our ceiling once we draft this perfect fit/instant contributor and who specifically is that player?

[NatP4]

I’ve said over and over, hitting on the right player at 15, hiring a new coach, and a full season of the highly impactful Daniel Gafford will result in ALOT of wins, but if Giddey falls to around 15, I wouldn’t let the last couple years of 33 year old Westbrook prevent me from picking BPA.

We want a championship, not a 2nd round exit.

[NatP4]

This is a NBA player, very similar to Demare Carroll. Steal in round 2.

Watch on YouTube

Another good one, Ayayi is going to be atleast average on the defensive end, capable of guarding 1s, 2s, and some 3s. Quality 40% 3pt threat that spaces the floor and provides secondary playmaking. Does everything you need to do in the modern NBA:

Watch on YouTube

[mhd]

Chad Ford is back LOL. I just listened to his podcast and he has the Wiz taking Kispert at 15. From what I remember, the mock was something like:

1). Houston-Cade
2). Det-Green
3). Orl-Mobely
4). OKC-Kumanga
5). Cle-Suggs
6). GSW-Barnes
7). Tor-Mitchell
8). Orl-Keon Johnson
9). Sac-Wagner
10). NO-Giddey
11). Char-Sengun
12). SAS-Jalen Johnson
13). Ind-Moody
14). GSW-Butler

[doclinkin]

Another good one, Ayayi is going to be atleast average on the defensive end, capable of guarding 1s, 2s, and some 3s. Quality 40% 3pt threat that spaces the floor and provides secondary playmaking. Does everything you need to do in the modern NBA:

Watch on YouTube

Yes on Ayayi. His intangibles rank higher to me than say your man Franz Wagner. Defensive players take a bit to get rolling in the NBA. They have to have at least one NBA caliber offensive threat, otherwise coaches don't play them. Refs especially don't give rookie defenders the benefit of the doubt, they tend to show a bias towards offensively skilled players, and get whistle happy when vets attack the rook. Wagner needs to work on his outside shot before he will find consistent minutes. He needs a finishing move underneath, or especially in traffic. I can see his smarts, he will get good, but it looks to me like he may struggle some trying to find a role, at first.

Ayayi by contrast has a multi-tool game, solid defense, and a prized NBA skill: a catch and shoot three ball that goes in. From respectable range. He is one of those journeyman players that is a solid throw in piece on any trade. Adding value as a sweetener. He can fit on any bench. Maybe not a starter, but a key glue guy on a winning team.

Wagner may be a starter, eventually, he is a quick learner and makes adjustments and has that competitive desperation. He just currently has no immediate NBA role. Few teams play a non scoring stopper in their starting line. With a reliable outside shot, he has a role, until then, minutes may be streaky. Depending on who is coaching this team anyway.