The uncomfortable "truth" about this season (Julius and RJ)

[moocow007]

There is not many "obvious" moves we can make. But then again, a front office like ours that is paid so much and has so many guys that can, on paper, do things, should be able to do more than just the "obvious" right? If their bag of tricks is only what is obvious then, yep, we'll be back at this same thing again next season with maybe some slight upgrades. But considering that the Wolves shlock front office managed to improve in Thibs 2nd year significantly from his first, I have hope that this front office can also improve significantly. Enough to win a title? Probably not (see my Lebron and parting the Red Sea comments but applied to the front office). But enough to make more noise. Then you see what happens in 2022. As many said, this is not a 1 year thing, it's a culture and a multi-year build. But doesn't mean you sit on your hands either right?

[god shammgod]

Julius/RJ/Mitch (No Payton): +9.0 Net Rating
Julius/RJ/IQ (No Payton): +15.4 Net Rating
Julius/RJ/Rose (No Payton): +13.2 Net Rating
RJ/Obi/Rose (No Payton): +15.3 Net Rating
Obi/Rose/IQ (No Payton): +18.2 Net Rating
IQ/RJ/Julius/Mitch (No Payton); +13.6 Net Rating

Those are really the combinations that matter in the long run and specifically the fact that Elfrid is presumably gone and once we got semi competent guard play from Rose the group took off. I agree that unless RJ and Randle take another leap there is a somewhat capped ceiling on this team but I'm not going to rule that out either given the rapid progression both have already made while in uniform. I'm also not going to read too much into one series where, in hindsight, our personnel was much more limited/inexperience than the opposition and specifically their main guy was an awful matchup for us defensively...

Again Shamm loves to be overly critical and doom and gloom to balance the board out but labeling this team treadmill after 1 year with a mostly young crew and their best defensive player out for the playoffs seems a little comical to me. Yeah we can talk in absolutes about how Julius isn't a number 1 and nothing matters except for that but there are mutliple ways to skin a cat and the Knicks seemed as prime as any other team to snag that ultimate talent if they feel the need to or continue what they're doing until that occurs. Plenty of positive assets on this team. You can build it block by block or swing for the fences this summer and next summer. That's the great part of where we're at. We haven't been this good and also flexible as a franchise in a long time. Really gives you a small position of power within the league.

i stand by my statement. a team built around rj & randle is a treadmill team. they're not talented enough. if you trade for/sign someone better than it's not built around them. could they get someone better ? who knows. it's not always so easy.

The problem with that statement is that you're assuming those 2 guys don't get any better when they have already shown a propensity to improve and when paired with non-negative players have produced a pretty big impact on winning given the numbers I've laid out. Also the term "treadmill" is a lazy term IMO, but that's a different conversation...

Also you can still "build around" Julius and RJ while getting better talent. They aren't mutually exclusive terms or ideas.

they're not gonna improve enough to contend for anything. yes, i'm assuming that. i see zero possibility of it.

and i don't want debate the meaning of "treadmill" or "build around". i think we both know what each other means.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

He's certainly better cast as a second ball-handler and facilitator than an ISO scoring threat. But if they do that, his raw numbers most likely go down (albeit efficiency will go up).

Either way, I think if you can package him to get a young guy (or draft pick who can turn into this type of guy) who can reliably create offense off the dribble for HIMSELF as well as others, you have to do that... How valuable, really, is a secondary playmaker in the P&R if he cannot consistently finish off the dribble (weak pull-up game, VERY weak around the basket)?

I think we have an opportunity to sell high on RJ.

His numbers went up during the playoffs running it, how would they likely go down if next season instead of stone hands and Methuselah he's throwing lobs to Mitch on any drive where they fail to pick him up? We need to give him reps running it with Mitch, it doesn't need to be the cornerstone of our offense, but we have to use it since Mitch is elite as a rollman. I can't believe how some of you are just ok with not running stuff that plays to our players strengths.


You just want to trade him, the numbers go against what you were trying to say, so now it's conjecture on him not developing that part of his game when he's already solid at it with low reps. So, with more reps and a better rollman, he's going to get worse? A secondary playmaker that can run PnR is extremely valuable, especially one that can function as a catch and shoot player, this is literally how the Celtics developed Brown, he was a stand in the corner guy who they gave more PnR reps to. You can track his PnR ballhandler numbers year by year and see them going up as the frequency of the play went up, and before you say RJ isn't Brown, at this stage in their careers RJ is already a better PnR ball handler by the numbers than Brown was (.73ppp), and Brown is now elite at it (1.02ppp).

It's just a different philosophy of team building. You want to build around RJ and Mitch (who else?)... You do realize the Knicks will have to pay RJ at some point very soon?

I think it's nice to have a guy like RJ, but if you can package him in a deal to get what you really need (and have always needed)--a young primary ballhandler and creator--you have to do that first. Then you can add an RJ.

If we could trade for De'aaron Fox or the draft rights to Suggs by packaging RJ and picks, you have to do it. And I'm sure there is a franchise out there that takes that deal.

I want to keep RJ, acquire more young talent and actually develop our players. Yall are missing the step that the Nets took, which was before getting KD & Kyrie, they went about acquiring young talent and actually developing them. They developed Russell, Allen, Harris, and Levert, who have we developed? We spent all that money on getting developmental coaches, so lets see what they can do.

See, this is fantasy world stuff, you think RJ isn't that great but think we'll be able to trade him for Fox or Suggs? I'm talking about reality here, the reality is we could utilize our young players more effectively. Back to the point of the thread, RJ + 2nd unit in place of Burks is more in line with a modern team's offense than Randle + 2nd unit in place of Obi. Any lineup including Julius is going to run into the issue of his ball dominance and what that means for running PnR.

[Knicksfan1992]

Warriors offer Wiseman, Wiggins and that Wolves pick (assuming it conveys) for Julius , what y’all doing?

Laugh and hang up.

The only reason you take that is if you think Wiseman has a realistic chance of being better than Julius is which, based on his first season, and anybody who actually has watched him play would be basically scouting malpractice . Also we have Mitch if we want him in house. He doesn;t exactly fill a need for us on a grand team-building scale

And the Warriors pick is outside of the top 3 no matter what and has only a 9% chance at 4 in a 4 player tier 1 draft...

And WIggins is a salary throw in and not exactly a great one either.

If they want to bowl us over with 2 more picks then yeah sure maybe but I'd rather see what we have in Julius first before flipping him for a reset again.

[Marty McFly]

Building around both isn’t ideal. They have similar games but neither is a great three point shooter so spacing is always going to be an issue. Julius had a great season, but he’s older and about to get paid. He needs to get traded preferably for someone like McCollum. We need to figure out what RJ can become, since this team spent the 3rd pick on him.

I'm sorry, but didn't both of them shoot 40% or higher from 3?

Between them they made 4 threes on 9 attempts a game for one season. That makes them great shooters?

[FlashFlood]

Guys, RJ is in year 2. He went from 40% FG 32% 3pt in year one to 44% and 40%. Are you really betting against RJ? It seems premature to say the least. You can analyze his game all you want, but in year two he improved exactly what he needed to improve. Check out the stats of the people he's being compared against - he's ahead of the curve.

The post season loss against Atlanta definitely showed where the Knicks can improve. The team shouldnt be built around Randle, simply because he isn't an elite isolation player. Why build around someone that can't be the point of attack right?

But it shouldn't have been about Randle in the playoffs... I find it deplorable that the Knicks didn't play IQ more than 15 minutes a game. I'm upset that Thibs decided to overplay Gibson rather than field his best players and put Randle in as a small ball C.

Randle shot 41% from 3 this year. He would have been terrific in the corners as a recipient of Rose, IQ, Burks penetration.

So, all that to say, Randle shouldnt be built around but he can still be part of the team moving forward.

[jvsimonetti0514]

Curry is coming next summer so all our problems will be answered I'm not really sure it's right to say the bench carried us, when it really was just Rose. Don't get me wrong, I know that Burks and IQ both had huge games and helped us win a bunch of games but we were a game or two under .500 before Rose came to town. It just shows how starved we are for compete guard play. Burks and IQ can def give you point guard play in stretches but Rose really got everyone into their right spots. Payton was one of the worst players in the league based on net rating, if you remove him from the equation the whole teams net ratings take a jump. It's definitely a littler tougher to look at those numbers without the context of that anchor around their feet. I feel like we should try to add another guard that's at least as good as Rose before we make any panic decisions about RJ and Randle. I'm definitely confident there's another step that they both of them can take this offseason and with just average guard play I think we can do some damage.

[Rasho Brezec]

Randle would look better as a 2nd option.

RJ would look better as a 3rd option - and even better if he came off the bench.

Getting the 1st option is the hard part. Dangle every remaining asset for a disgruntled star or a better draft pick. Who knows which is easier to get.

[CharlesOakley]

I think the missing ingredient is all-star level point guard. You put Randle into pick and roll with a top-10 pg and he is going to get some easy looks. RJ is going to also get some easier looks and both will get some easy assists just by making the extra pass.

What we did this year with a total lack of shot creation from our starting point guard was remarkable. I think the numbers discussed by OP are mostly a reflection of that.

[jvsimonetti0514]

Building around both isn’t ideal. They have similar games but neither is a great three point shooter so spacing is always going to be an issue. Julius had a great season, but he’s older and about to get paid. He needs to get traded preferably for someone like McCollum. We need to figure out what RJ can become, since this team spent the 3rd pick on him.

I'm sorry, but didn't both of them shoot 40% or higher from 3?

Between them they made 4 threes on 9 attempts a game for one season. That makes them great shooters?

yes? 44% from three is really good.

[Deeeez Knicks]

In terms of RJ, he has plenty of room to keep getting better too. He took a massive step foward this season. Who's to say he stops getting better? Maybe so, maybe not. Just looking at history, he will get better. Just a matter of how much. Plenty of things he can keep improving.

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[ENYK]

His numbers went up during the playoffs running it, how would they likely go down if next season instead of stone hands and Methuselah he's throwing lobs to Mitch on any drive where they fail to pick him up? We need to give him reps running it with Mitch, it doesn't need to be the cornerstone of our offense, but we have to use it since Mitch is elite as a rollman. I can't believe how some of you are just ok with not running stuff that plays to our players strengths.


You just want to trade him, the numbers go against what you were trying to say, so now it's conjecture on him not developing that part of his game when he's already solid at it with low reps. So, with more reps and a better rollman, he's going to get worse? A secondary playmaker that can run PnR is extremely valuable, especially one that can function as a catch and shoot player, this is literally how the Celtics developed Brown, he was a stand in the corner guy who they gave more PnR reps to. You can track his PnR ballhandler numbers year by year and see them going up as the frequency of the play went up, and before you say RJ isn't Brown, at this stage in their careers RJ is already a better PnR ball handler by the numbers than Brown was (.73ppp), and Brown is now elite at it (1.02ppp).

It's just a different philosophy of team building. You want to build around RJ and Mitch (who else?)... You do realize the Knicks will have to pay RJ at some point very soon?

I think it's nice to have a guy like RJ, but if you can package him in a deal to get what you really need (and have always needed)--a young primary ballhandler and creator--you have to do that first. Then you can add an RJ.

If we could trade for De'aaron Fox or the draft rights to Suggs by packaging RJ and picks, you have to do it. And I'm sure there is a franchise out there that takes that deal.

I want to keep RJ, acquire more young talent and actually develop our players. Yall are missing the step that the Nets took, which was before getting KD & Kyrie, they went about acquiring young talent and actually developing them. They developed Russell, Allen, Harris, and Levert, who have we developed? We spent all that money on getting developmental coaches, so lets see what they can do.

See, this is fantasy world stuff, you think RJ isn't that great but think we'll be able to trade him for Fox or Suggs? I'm talking about reality here, the reality is we could utilize our young players more effectively. Back to the point of the thread, RJ + 2nd unit in place of Burks is more in line with a modern team's offense than Randle + 2nd unit in place of Obi. Any lineup including Julius is going to run into the issue of his ball dominance and what that means for running PnR.

What are his promising stats on shooting off the dribble or finishing inside? The one's I have seen suggest he is one of the worst positionally in the NBA (reflected in his very low PER). Maybe that is explainable partially by misuse on offense, but the shortcomings that scouts described when he entered the NBA are still his obvious downfall now (very ugly in the playoffs). Plays with one hand, isn't explosive, doesn't handle the ball particularly well for his position...

Are your hopes that he corrects all of these holes in his game (or physical shortcomings) any more realistic than mine that we use him to acquire talent that is more impactful in today's NBA? At the end of the day, we're all just fans here, talking s***. We have no idea how the FO views these players and wants to build, that's why they get the big bucks.

Some of us prefer our other youth--particularly IQ--so yes, at the end of the day this is more of a conversation or debate about how to focus the Knicks' energy moving forward. They are unlikely to want to develop 3 rookies next year, especially under Thibs, while hoping RJ takes the next step. Thibs' benching of RJ in critical moments reveals a lot about how Thibs views him at least.

[Kampuchea]

this is a good thread. i will say though, if you had the regular season julius with rose in the starting lineup it probably would have been better. but you didn't. rj really has no affect on winning at any time. he's neutral at best.

but yes, we're on the way to the treadmill if we build around those two.

There are worse things in a market like ours, than being a well-run treadmill team with control of all of its picks...if we can reach that level

Was gonna say, isn’t the goal to not suck while maintaining cap flexibility so we can attract players above treadmill level?

Why would anybody assume this roster will be anywhere near the same in the future as it is now? Especially at the contract cost of Randle and RJ, they are easy to move. We have not even one bad contract on the team right now.

Bit of a silly scenario to say we are locked into just Randle and RJ and will not significantly change the roster.

[Knicksfan1992]

i stand by my statement. a team built around rj & randle is a treadmill team. they're not talented enough. if you trade for/sign someone better than it's not built around them. could they get someone better ? who knows. it's not always so easy.

The problem with that statement is that you're assuming those 2 guys don't get any better when they have already shown a propensity to improve and when paired with non-negative players have produced a pretty big impact on winning given the numbers I've laid out. Also the term "treadmill" is a lazy term IMO, but that's a different conversation...

Also you can still "build around" Julius and RJ while getting better talent. They aren't mutually exclusive terms or ideas.

they're not gonna improve enough to contend for anything. yes, i'm assuming that. i see zero possibility of it.

and i don't want debate the meaning of "treadmill" or "build around". i think we both know what each other means.

People were saying the same thing about Jokic + Murray a few seasons back, same with Rudy+ Mitchell, Ben and Joel, etc. All those guys have a realistic shot at winning a title this year or at least making a conference finals

Maybe IDK not shut out that possibility for 2 guys who have already taken leaps. Not saying bank on it, but it seems silly to just say it's not going to happen...

Nobody is denying the Knicks need more talent and nobody is going to say no to Kawhi if he wants to come here.

[Marty McFly]

I'm sorry, but didn't both of them shoot 40% or higher from 3?

Between them they made 4 threes on 9 attempts a game for one season. That makes them great shooters?

yes? 44% from three is really good.

neither shot that. They both shot 41%. Good for you for thinking one season is enough of a sample to consider both great three point shooters.

[Chanel Bomber]

Curry is coming next summer so all our problems will be answered I'm not really sure it's right to say the bench carried us, when it really was just Rose. Don't get me wrong, I know that Burks and IQ both had huge games and helped us win a bunch of games but we were a game or two under .500 before Rose came to town. It just shows how starved we are for compete guard play. Burks and IQ can def give you point guard play in stretches but Rose really got everyone into their right spots. Payton was one of the worst players in the league based on net rating, if you remove him from the equation the whole teams net ratings take a jump. It's definitely a littler tougher to look at those numbers without the context of that anchor around their feet. I feel like we should try to add another guard that's at least as good as Rose before we make any panic decisions about RJ and Randle. I'm definitely confident there's another step that they both of them can take this offseason and with just average guard play I think we can do some damage.

Then why was the starting unit still so ineffective with Rose against Atlanta and IQ/Burks/Obi still effective coming off the bench in that series?

It's an open question.

Rose finished the series with a -10.3 net rating. IQ, Burks and Obi with a -0.6, +2.7, +3.1 respectively. I'm aware it's a small sample size, but it's consistent with the regular season. Obviously the Knicks' starting 5 would've performed better with a competent point guard starting instead of Payton, but I'm wondering if a team featuring RJ (in this current form at least) and Randle doesn't simply have a glass ceiling that's lower than we seem to expect and that the team won't be able to break regardless of the personnel around these two players.

I think this also poses the question of IQ's impact/potential. The team consistently performed better with him on the court, but he didn't play much because old dinosaur Thibs didn't trust him despite ample evidence that he should. IQ might be the actual jewel of this team.

[jvsimonetti0514]

Between them they made 4 threes on 9 attempts a game for one season. That makes them great shooters?

yes? 44% from three is really good.

neither shot that. They both shot 41%. Good for you for thinking one season is enough of a sample to consider both great three point shooters.

What's 4 divided by 9? So unless my calculator is wrong, it's .444444. Also I think 72 games is a very large sample size. It's kinda weird that you don't.

[Deeeez Knicks]

thanks for this, chanel. we know we need more high end talent. i don't think RJ and randle alone get us to the promised land. they need help. and, of course, as much as some of us might love them, we should be open to improving the team whether or not they are part of the plan.

i want to see a title before i die. if that means we have to pull a brooklyn nets one day with our beloved scrappy core, so be it. i'm not in a rush for that. i just want to see a championship plan actually executed. for where we are right now, i'm impressed.

Yeah, there really isn't a huge rush to figure this all out. Nobody is untouchable so I would trade either in the right deal, but otherwise we dont have to make this decision immediately. I am perfectly fine with rolling with RJ and Randle for now...they actually did both play surprisingly well together and improved a lot combined with a low cost salary. They still have upside to grow together.

Overall, we all know we need a #1 guy and then some more talent on top of that though. All depends what deals and opportunities are on the table though.

i kind of think you do have to figure out what you're doing with randle pretty soon. the latest you can wait is the next trade deadline if you're not gonna commit to him. and it's not always that great to wait until then because he's a free agent a couple months after and that hurts your leverage.

That is true if you look at it that way. But for those same reasons, what are we even get in a trade for him even at this point? I just don't see us getting a ton of value in a trade and I dont think we would even be looking to trade him either. If you trade Randle then the plan is probably to rebuild/tank, and i dont see them going backwards intentionally.

[DOT]

yes? 44% from three is really good.

neither shot that. They both shot 41%. Good for you for thinking one season is enough of a sample to consider both great three point shooters.

What's 4 divided by 9? So unless my calculator is wrong, it's .444444. Also I think 72 games is a very large sample size. It's kinda weird that you don't.

4/9ths

In all seriousness, I think the general consensus is a 2 season sample when it comes to 3pt shooting, which would have Randle at 36% and RJ at 37% over their last 2 years

Which is more realistic than expecting 40% from them long term, and while not great, certainly good enough that you don't have to worry about it.

[cgf]

this is a good thread. i will say though, if you had the regular season julius with rose in the starting lineup it probably would have been better. but you didn't. rj really has no affect on winning at any time. he's neutral at best.

but yes, we're on the way to the treadmill if we build around those two.

There are worse things in a market like ours, than being a well-run treadmill team with control of all of its picks...if we can reach that level

Was gonna say, isn’t the goal to not suck while maintaining cap flexibility so we can attract players above treadmill level?

Why would anybody assume this roster will be anywhere near the same in the future as it is now? Especially at the contract cost of Randle and RJ, they are easy to move. We have not even one bad contract on the team right now.

Bit of a silly scenario to say we are locked into just Randle and RJ and will not significantly change the roster.

As long as we aren't overpaying guys, so that we maintain our flexibility via trade, I'm fine with using our capspace on dudes who can grow further with RJ & Julius until we are able to attract a true superstar, even if we max out as a 2nd/3rd tier playoff team that isn't winning more than a series or two.

So for me, it's more about building up our asset base, putting the pieces we do have in positions to succeed, and making this an attractive destination, than it is winning a title with this core group necessarily...it's easier to trade for a Kawhi when you have a DeRozan to spare on a deep team that can survive sending out some FRPs, and all that.