MIAMI HEAT Offseason Thread 2021

[BenoUdrihFTL]

I'd consider something like CJ + Nurkic for Bam + DRob/Nunn (because I think Nurk has huge upside if he can stay healthy) but CJ for Butler makes no sense to me

Compression of morbidity; We're not going to win either way, the best way to remain a decent team that could attract stars, without bottoming out, is to grab another, young, elite wing

Doesn't have to be CJ, but he's what's available. If Jaylen Brown or some other wing of similar value were available, I'd go for them. This core is likely done, need to think ahead

I just don't think replacing Yimmy with CJ (or another player on CJ's level) would leave us with a decent team. We might not bottom out as in 20 win basement dwellers, but I definitely think we'd miss the playoffs and win somewhere around 35-40 games at most. Bucks series notwithstanding, Yimmy was massively impactful during the regular season, like top 10ish in the NBA impactful and the advanced metrics back that up:

- 4th in bball-index's LEBRON
- 6th in 538's boxscore RAPTOR
- 11th in 538's overall RAPTOR
- 12th in 538's WAR

Remove him from the roster and you're looking at a sub-30 win team and I don't think CJ and RoCo are enough to elevate that to even an 8th seed. We'd be in that no-man's land territory with CJ as your #1 on offense (yikes) and he's still owed $100 mil over the next 3 years. Perhaps I'm lower on him than most observers but I don't rate CJ as an elite wing, and he'll be 30yo next season so I don't really consider him to be young either. He's actually more on Yimmy's timeline than Bam's

Now if you could move Bam instead of Yimmy for CJ, and you get back Nurkic as well... now CJ is your 3rd guy on offense (if we actually utilize Nurkic optimally) and that gets much more interesting imo

I'd still to prefer a dice roll of DRob S&T + Dragic for Porzingis + Kleber or Powell (or even JRich if he somehow opts in) since we give up neither Yimmy or Bam, but that didn't seem like a very popular idea when I posted it here a week ago lol

[HeatIn5]

Is an opted in Dragic plus Iggy for Porzingas a possible trade for you guys or is that just too much of a dice roll for you guys? If you could get him right, Porzingas would fit in nicely in theory..Maybe you could get a Dallas 2025 thrown in for taking the extra years that could be used for an upgrade somewhere on the roster...I'm pretty sure you guys aggressively shoot this idea down...

I’d do that

Lowry/McConnell or Nunn
Duncan/Herro
Jimmy/FA Wing
Bam/FA stretch 4
Porzingis/Dedmon

Would be a solid team

[Zeno]

Is an opted in Dragic plus Iggy for Porzingas a possible trade for you guys or is that just too much of a dice roll for you guys? If you could get him right, Porzingas would fit in nicely in theory..Maybe you could get a Dallas 2025 thrown in for taking the extra years that could be used for an upgrade somewhere on the roster...I'm pretty sure you guys aggressively shoot this idea down...

I’d do that

Lowry/McConnell or Nunn
Duncan/Herro
Jimmy/FA Wing
Bam/FA stretch 4
Porzingis/Dedmon

Would be a solid team

What would you be trading for Lowry? I don't think the MLE would get it done. Dude is a businessman.

[gom]

I agree Jimmy was great sometimes in the regular season. He was top-5 in the NBA in the bubble. No question really about what he did for us.

Trade him.

And not for Lowry, McCollum, or Porzingis. OMG you guys are sick.

[gom]

Lowry/McConnell or Nunn
Duncan/Herro
Jimmy/FA Wing
Bam/FA stretch 4
Porzingis/Dedmon

Would be a solid team

Absolutely crap.

[eddieheatfan]

I agree Jimmy was great sometimes in the regular season. He was top-5 in the NBA in the bubble. No question really about what he did for us.

Trade him.

And not for Lowry, McCollum, or Porzingis. OMG you guys are sick.

[SA37]

Taken from Barry Jackson’s 4 part series today.

Option 1: Operate as a room team, using what could be as much as $27.5 million in cap space, to add the best available player or perhaps two players. Miami also would have a $4.9 million room exception in this scenario.

Option 2: Operate as an over-the-cap team, allowing Miami to exceed the cap to keep Victor Oladipo, Goran Dragic and/or Trevor Ariza if it wishes, use a $9.5 million mid-level exception and a $3.6 million bi-annual exception and make a sign-and-trade to upgrade the roster.

The question is: who does Miami have to renounce to get to $27M in space?

It is hard to see a scenario where Miami doesn’t opt-in on both Dragic and Iguodala and bring Ariza back. Ariza played well for Miami and Miami really can’t do better for ~MLE money. I don’t think Miami quits on Oladipo unless his contract demands are out of touch with reality.

Dragic - Oladipo
Butler / Herro
Ariza / Iguodala
Bam / Achiuwa
??? / ???

Miami would still have decisions to make on Nunn and Robinson. Miami would have the MLE and BAE to add frontcourt help:

N Noel - K Olynyk - C Zeller - R Lopez - B Marjanovic - D Theis - J McGee - P Millsap - D Dedmon - M Muscala - D Howard - F Kaminsky - E Kanter - A Len

Miami could try to acquire Lowry via S&T with Dragic and Robinson going to a 3rd team.

Miami could then try to use Nunn and Iguodala to get Al Horford.

Use the MLE on Rudy Gay, D McDermott, or Otto Porter Jr and the BAE on Millsap

Lowry / Oladipo
Butler / Herro
Ariza / Gay, McDermott, or Porter Jr
Bam / Millsap / Achiuwa
Horford / Dedmon (?)

Thats another Miami Heat........first round exit.

Possibly.

I don’t think Miami is as bad as a 1st rd exit might lead some to believe just like Miami making the Finals didn’t make Miami a perennial title contender.

The reality is Riley is highly unlikely to blow the team up and, even if he were more inclined to do so, Miami’s draft pick situation is not optimal for it. The other side of that is Miami’s ability to improve the roster is limited by its limited draft assets.

Lowry could be Miami’s Chris Paul if he decided to sign with the Heat. Oladipo could make a full recovery and be 100% by January. Herro could make the strides he didn’t make this past summer. There are good players who might become available via trade or free agency, like Beal, DeRozan, Porzingis, Kemba Walker, M Turner, M Brogdon, KAT, B Simmon, D Lillard…etc.

Miami can upgrade its roster to be a realistic contender for the next 2-3 years, which is about as much as you can expect from any franchise. When you are that close to contending, you don’t blow it up to see if lotto balls go your way for draft picks you may not get to keep.

[oreon]

I'd consider something like CJ + Nurkic for Bam + DRob/Nunn (because I think Nurk has huge upside if he can stay healthy) but CJ for Butler makes no sense to me

Compression of morbidity; We're not going to win either way, the best way to remain a decent team that could attract stars, without bottoming out, is to grab another, young, elite wing

Doesn't have to be CJ, but he's what's available. If Jaylen Brown or some other wing of similar value were available, I'd go for them. This core is likely done, need to think ahead

I just don't think replacing Yimmy with CJ (or another player on CJ's level) would leave us with a decent team. We might not bottom out as in 20 win basement dwellers, but I definitely think we'd miss the playoffs and win somewhere around 35-40 games at most. Bucks series notwithstanding, Yimmy was massively impactful during the regular season, like top 10ish in the NBA impactful and the advanced metrics back that up:

- 4th in bball-index's LEBRON
- 6th in 538's boxscore RAPTOR
- 11th in 538's overall RAPTOR
- 12th in 538's WAR

Remove him from the roster and you're looking at a sub-30 win team and I don't think CJ and RoCo are enough to elevate that to even an 8th seed. We'd be in that no-man's land territory with CJ as your #1 on offense (yikes) and he's still owed $100 mil over the next 3 years. Perhaps I'm lower on him than most observers but I don't rate CJ as an elite wing, and he'll be 30yo next season so I don't really consider him to be young either. He's actually more on Yimmy's timeline than Bam's

Now if you could move Bam instead of Yimmy for CJ, and you get back Nurkic as well... now CJ is your 3rd guy on offense (if we actually utilize Nurkic optimally) and that gets much more interesting imo

I'd still to prefer a dice roll of DRob S&T + Dragic for Porzingis + Kleber or Powell (or even JRich if he somehow opts in) since we give up neither Yimmy or Bam, but that didn't seem like a very popular idea when I posted it here a week ago lol

It's the East. Trade Jimmy and we still make it to the playoff tournament. But trading Jimmy for someone like CJ makes no sense. If you are trading him its for a mini rebuild and you want to get someone in Bam's/Herro age bracket. So a trade to Denver for MPJ or Knicks for Barret are the only trades that make sense.
Seeing how dominant the Nets are and the Sixers can pull of a trade for Simmons to get a 3rd guy, its best to go the mini rebuild route. Unless we are getting Kawhi via FA, I don't see any moves that are gonna allow us to get past the Nets.

[Kobewade11]

Covington is more taller, more stronger, 3&D and better paint player than Iguodala.

Iguodala is not a 4. Except for his long arms, none of his features are suitable for the position.

He's not a real needle mover, just look at Portland. He's just a name that people like for whatever reason.

He's not responsible for Portland's condition. Except for Covington and DJJ, there is no defensive player.

I didn't say he's responsible for Portland's condition. I said he's not a needle mover.

[heater4life]

Heat fans are like newborns. Quiet and swaddled during the season, cry their butts off during the offseason until fed.

Put a bottle in em Riley!!!!

[Slot Machine]

Is an opted in Dragic plus Iggy for Porzingas a possible trade for you guys or is that just too much of a dice roll for you guys? If you could get him right, Porzingas would fit in nicely in theory..Maybe you could get a Dallas 2025 thrown in for taking the extra years that could be used for an upgrade somewhere on the roster...I'm pretty sure you guys aggressively shoot this idea down...

I’d do this trade, especially with the Dallas pick thrown in. Wouldn’t give up any assets for KP but I’d certainly take him if we only have to eat his salary.

[gom]

We could really crush the league if we sign a broken Oladipo and a broken Porzingis. Nobody will see us coming (or going).

[MettaWorldPanda]

I have a feeling our preference is to act as a capped out team and engage the Raptors into a S&T for Lowry. Maybe get a third team involved. I’m sure we want the flexibility of adding a big with mid level and using the bi annual.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Is an opted in Dragic plus Iggy for Porzingas a possible trade for you guys or is that just too much of a dice roll for you guys? If you could get him right, Porzingas would fit in nicely in theory..Maybe you could get a Dallas 2025 thrown in for taking the extra years that could be used for an upgrade somewhere on the roster...I'm pretty sure you guys aggressively shoot this idea down...

I’d do that

Lowry/McConnell or Nunn
Duncan/Herro
Jimmy/FA Wing
Bam/FA stretch 4
Porzingis/Dedmon

Would be a solid team

What would you be trading for Lowry? I don't think the MLE would get it done. Dude is a businessman.

Would the Raps have any interest in Porzingis or even Al Horford for that matter? Just been brainstorming on multiple team deals that the Raps send a S&T Lowry to the Heat starting at 25 million with moving parts such as Dragic, Iguodala, and maybe one of our young pieces like Okpala to facilitate getting something in return for you guys. Saw this article of the Raps being seen as a fit for Horford. Might work out in a three or 4 team deal. https://www.nbaanalysis.net/2021/05/16/nba-rumors-okc-thunder-toronto-raptors-offseason-trade-al-horford/

[MettaWorldPanda]

If Dallas is looking to get out of Porzingis deal and have some cap space for 2022 then pieces such as Iguodala and Dragic getting routed to them makes total sense. Not saying that Porzingis is our target but could be involved in getting us Lowry. Either the Raps take the gamble on Porzingis or maybe he gets routed to Oklahoma(Betting list third favorite to land him) and Horford gets moved to the Raps. One way or the other I think think working as a capped out team and working the S&T market looks like the heavy favorite approach for us.

[Beenie]

Not my first choice but I'd take a flyer on Porzingis.

If Meyers were actually good, he'd be a poor mans KP and the team was pretty good for long stretches with Meyers starting last year.

[Bishop45]

Compression of morbidity; We're not going to win either way, the best way to remain a decent team that could attract stars, without bottoming out, is to grab another, young, elite wing

Doesn't have to be CJ, but he's what's available. If Jaylen Brown or some other wing of similar value were available, I'd go for them. This core is likely done, need to think ahead

I just don't think replacing Yimmy with CJ (or another player on CJ's level) would leave us with a decent team. We might not bottom out as in 20 win basement dwellers, but I definitely think we'd miss the playoffs and win somewhere around 35-40 games at most. Bucks series notwithstanding, Yimmy was massively impactful during the regular season, like top 10ish in the NBA impactful and the advanced metrics back that up:

- 4th in bball-index's LEBRON
- 6th in 538's boxscore RAPTOR
- 11th in 538's overall RAPTOR
- 12th in 538's WAR

Remove him from the roster and you're looking at a sub-30 win team and I don't think CJ and RoCo are enough to elevate that to even an 8th seed. We'd be in that no-man's land territory with CJ as your #1 on offense (yikes) and he's still owed $100 mil over the next 3 years. Perhaps I'm lower on him than most observers but I don't rate CJ as an elite wing, and he'll be 30yo next season so I don't really consider him to be young either. He's actually more on Yimmy's timeline than Bam's

Now if you could move Bam instead of Yimmy for CJ, and you get back Nurkic as well... now CJ is your 3rd guy on offense (if we actually utilize Nurkic optimally) and that gets much more interesting imo

I'd still to prefer a dice roll of DRob S&T + Dragic for Porzingis + Kleber or Powell (or even JRich if he somehow opts in) since we give up neither Yimmy or Bam, but that didn't seem like a very popular idea when I posted it here a week ago lol

It's the East. Trade Jimmy and we still make it to the playoff tournament. But trading Jimmy for someone like CJ makes no sense. If you are trading him its for a mini rebuild and you want to get someone in Bam's/Herro age bracket. So a trade to Denver for MPJ or Knicks for Barret are the only trades that make sense.
Seeing how dominant the Nets are and the Sixers can pull of a trade for Simmons to get a 3rd guy, its best to go the mini rebuild route. Unless we are getting Kawhi via FA, I don't see any moves that are gonna allow us to get past the Nets.

Good players in the same age bracket isn't a rebuild, it's NBA fodder. You win with stars, and the best way to stay appealing for another star is to field a decent team.

Neither KPJ or Barrett is guaranteed to be as good as CJ, so scoffing at the latter trade doesn't make sense to me

[dolphinatik]

Want:
Reggie Bullock
Hassan Whiteside - if he wants to come and can be ahd for mle
Dwight Howard - if he can be had near vet min, productive off the bench
TJ McConnell - again solid if cheap
Daniel Theis - 10 mil or less only
Derrick Rose - solid backup
Devonte Graham (R)- potential signing has not been consistent
Alex Caruso- solid smart backup only if cheap
Hamidou Diallo- singing on potential and super athletic
Patrick Mills - great backup u can trust
Mitchell Robinson- young rim protector
Evan Fournier
Richaun Holmes- solid defender undersized big, long arms, might get too pricey for his services
Montrezl Harrell - still relatively cheap
Dennis Schroeder- depending on his number he might be good value
Spencer Dinwiddie - always liked him, he was on my draft list for us in the second round
Jarrett Allen - might get too pricey
Marcus smart - if CEltics are looking to unload him

These guys we can afford unless the market really blows up on them.

[Zeno]

If Dallas is looking to get out of Porzingis deal and have some cap space for 2022 then pieces such as Iguodala and Dragic getting routed to them makes total sense. Not saying that Porzingis is our target but could be involved in getting us Lowry. Either the Raps take the gamble on Porzingis or maybe he gets routed to Oklahoma(Betting list third favorite to land him) and Horford gets moved to the Raps. One way or the other I think think working as a capped out team and working the S&T market looks like the heavy favorite approach for us.

This all makes sense but I'm not a fan of this happening especially the Horford one. Why would we want a player that old on a big deal if we aren't keeping Lowry? Your link has Baynes,Hood(team options) for Horford and that would make sense if we were staying over the cap and interested in keeping Lowry(really don't want that either though) Porzingas might be interesting if the medical staff thinks they can revive him. Not super excited by that idea and I'm not sure we need to take that kind of risk without a player Kyle's age on the roster. I suggested Porzingas for you guys cause of the need to take a big swing because of Butler's age.

[Bishop45]

I'd consider something like CJ + Nurkic for Bam + DRob/Nunn (because I think Nurk has huge upside if he can stay healthy) but CJ for Butler makes no sense to me

Compression of morbidity; We're not going to win either way, the best way to remain a decent team that could attract stars, without bottoming out, is to grab another, young, elite wing

Doesn't have to be CJ, but he's what's available. If Jaylen Brown or some other wing of similar value were available, I'd go for them. This core is likely done, need to think ahead

I just don't think replacing Yimmy with CJ (or another player on CJ's level) would leave us with a decent team. We might not bottom out as in 20 win basement dwellers, but I definitely think we'd miss the playoffs and win somewhere around 35-40 games at most. Bucks series notwithstanding, Yimmy was massively impactful during the regular season, like top 10ish in the NBA impactful and the advanced metrics back that up:

- 4th in bball-index's LEBRON
- 6th in 538's boxscore RAPTOR
- 11th in 538's overall RAPTOR
- 12th in 538's WAR

Remove him from the roster and you're looking at a sub-30 win team and I don't think CJ and RoCo are enough to elevate that to even an 8th seed. We'd be in that no-man's land territory with CJ as your #1 on offense (yikes) and he's still owed $100 mil over the next 3 years. Perhaps I'm lower on him than most observers but I don't rate CJ as an elite wing, and he'll be 30yo next season so I don't really consider him to be young either. He's actually more on Yimmy's timeline than Bam's

Now if you could move Bam instead of Yimmy for CJ, and you get back Nurkic as well... now CJ is your 3rd guy on offense (if we actually utilize Nurkic optimally) and that gets much more interesting imo

I'd still to prefer a dice roll of DRob S&T + Dragic for Porzingis + Kleber or Powell (or even JRich if he somehow opts in) since we give up neither Yimmy or Bam, but that didn't seem like a very popular idea when I posted it here a week ago lol

Jimmy missed half the season among others who missed time; I don't think CJ being the number 1 on offense would be much worse than having Jimmy as the #1 on offense tbh