2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[eminence]

Random question - do folks agree with the seemingly commonly held thought that C is a more physically taxing position? Particularly in reference to guys with more traditional C size. So AD/Giannis sorts, not Draymond.

[Dupp]

Bubble Donny the goat


Also that failed bucks trade really might have championship consequences. They sure could use his offense.

[Odinn21]

So I want to be clear:

What you're responding to from me absolutely is "too much". I'm using hyperbole in places in this conversation. There are also times when I'm taking a more serious, and a more earnest and respectful, approach. Apologies if this is confusing. Fundamentally I have a lot of respect for Dirk.

As I say that: You're using relative ratings when my statement is one pushing back against relative ratings. I think the way folks have gotten used to essentially ignoring absolute rankings is problematic.

My main point was +7 postseason rORtg being massive no matter how we looked at it.
As we discussed in the past, relative Rtg numbers in regular seasons have a changing scale over time. However, anything beyond past 6 mark (5.4ish according to some of my personal analysis fwiw) for postseason is always quite significant. Even more so than quite significant but I couldn’t find the proper wording for it. It’s where you start to wonder if there’s an actual goat claim for an individual and you start to investigate even further.

[Dutchball97]

With both the Jazz and Suns being up 2-0 it is looking likely that they'll meet in the WCF. I believe this could be the most exciting series of the play-offs. I think they match up really well with each other. Very well built teams all around and it'd be completely deserved for either of them to make the finals. I do think Denver would've been the favorite this year with a healthy backfield but it wasn't to be.

[HeartBreakKid]

I agree, Suns and Jazz look like a war. 3 all-starish cores on each teams, deep bench, good coaches, nearly the same record, both franchises have something to prove.

[70sFan]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

[Doctor MJ]

So I want to be clear:

What you're responding to from me absolutely is "too much". I'm using hyperbole in places in this conversation. There are also times when I'm taking a more serious, and a more earnest and respectful, approach. Apologies if this is confusing. Fundamentally I have a lot of respect for Dirk.

As I say that: You're using relative ratings when my statement is one pushing back against relative ratings. I think the way folks have gotten used to essentially ignoring absolute rankings is problematic.

My main point was +7 postseason rORtg being massive no matter how we looked at it.
As we discussed in the past, relative Rtg numbers in regular seasons have a changing scale over time. However, anything beyond past 6 mark (5.4ish according to some of my personal analysis fwiw) for postseason is always quite significant. Even more so than quite significant but I couldn’t find the proper wording for it. It’s where you start to wonder if there’s an actual goat claim for an individual and you start to investigate even further.

I think what I'd say is this:

1. More physically in-prime Dirk's team got wrecked by a nothing Warriors team.
2. '10-11 saw the Mavs find a magic fit that allowed them to become the best in a playoff run where the super-team they faced didn't realize that shooting was important in the NBA.
3. Dirk's not clearly more effective than Jokic as a scorer at this point, and he's not in Jokic's league as a passer or rebounder.
4. Dirk had no glaring edge on defense.

So on what actual basketball basis are we saying it makes sense to normalize relative to the level of basketball competence in the competition?

[Doctor MJ]

Random question - do folks agree with the seemingly commonly held thought that C is a more physically taxing position? Particularly in reference to guys with more traditional C size. So AD/Giannis sorts, not Draymond.

I think it's more complicated that that.

If a big man tried to run around with Steph Curry he'd drop dead after like 5 minutes.

On the other hand, when you're undersized and forced to bang with the bigs, you're going to get hurt.

[Doctor MJ]

PG-13 ain't it man.

Clearly needs parental guidance.

[frica]

Random question - do folks agree with the seemingly commonly held thought that C is a more physically taxing position? Particularly in reference to guys with more traditional C size. So AD/Giannis sorts, not Draymond.

I think it's more complicated that that.

If a big man tried to run around with Steph Curry he'd drop dead after like 5 minutes.

On the other hand, when you're undersized and forced to bang with the bigs, you're going to get hurt.

I always like the analogy of a strongman vs a marathon runner in a wrestling match.

The strongman would lose horribly in a run. Just too much weight to carry.

In a wrestling match, the strongman can give 20% and never have to expend much energy vs the marathon runner who has to give 110% to even move the bigger man around.
Sure the marathon runner has better stamina, but when one doesn't have to try and the other has to give it all. The one giving it all will tire out first.

Same with a smaller player in the NBA. They can probably bang with a big for a few minutes. But afterwards they'll be bruised and tired.

[Colbinii]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Giannis also wasn't great defensively either. He hides out on Griffin and isn't a big impact player on that end.

I would prefer them to put Giannis on Brown as he is the primary screener, then you can have the length of Giannis and on-ball defender blitz the pick and roll.

[Peregrine01]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

[70sFan]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Giannis also wasn't great defensively either. He hides out on Griffin and isn't a big impact player on that end.

I would prefer them to put Giannis on Brown as he is the primary screener, then you can have the length of Giannis and on-ball defender blitz the pick and roll.

I said it way befote the series started, Giannis doesn't play like a DPOTY this season.

[70sFan]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

If your best offensive player can't beat old Blake one on one, it just shows limitation of your supposed offensive anchor. Seriously, at this point I've heard that basically every team is well equiped to guard Giannis and it's just a bad matchup...

[Colbinii]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

We have Donovan Mitchell carving up Beverely, George and Kawhi as he splits screens left and right and then we have "Old man Griffin, he is the reincarnation of 1989 Dennis Rodman."

Giannis has been bad offensively and the fact he can't consistently get past a buy-out player is a stain on him as a player.

[Peregrine01]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

We have Donovan Mitchell carving up Beverely, George and Kawhi as he splits screens left and right and then we have "Old man Griffin, he is the reincarnation of 1989 Dennis Rodman."

Giannis has been bad offensively and the fact he can't consistently get past a buy-out player is a stain on him as a player.

Most of the time, Blake isn't even guarding Giannis. I just can't see how you can run an offense like this. Draymond even gets more respect behind the 3 pt line.

[Doctor MJ]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

Really feels to me like the rub is that Point Giannis has a low playoff ceiling, but Point Giannis was also the key in finally turning Prospect Giannis into Star Giannis. Had he been quicker to pick up a devastating off-ball game everything would have played out differently, but Point Giannis allowed him to bypass the whole learning how to shoot thing and superficially appeared to make him unstoppable.

We're now many years into Giannis playing this way, and it seems like playoff defenses are getting better at dealing with it.

[Colbinii]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

Really feels to me like the rub is that Point Giannis has a low playoff ceiling, but Point Giannis was also the key in finally turning Prospect Giannis into Star Giannis. Had he been quicker to pick up a devastating off-ball game everything would have played out differently, but Point Giannis allowed him to bypass the whole learning how to shoot thing and superficially appeared to make him unstoppable.

We're now many years into Giannis playing this way, and it seems like playoff defenses are getting better at dealing with it.

Harden summed it up perfectly.

"I wish I could be 7-feet, run and just dunk. That takes no skill at all," Harden said. "I gotta actually learn how to play basketball and how to have skill. I'll take that any day."

It's truer and truer every season.

[Odinn21]

I think what I'd say is this:

1. More physically in-prime Dirk's team got wrecked by a nothing Warriors team.
2. '10-11 saw the Mavs find a magic fit that allowed them to become the best in a playoff run where the super-team they faced didn't realize that shooting was important in the NBA.
3. Dirk's not clearly more effective than Jokic as a scorer at this point, and he's not in Jokic's league as a passer or rebounder.
4. Dirk had no glaring edge on defense.

So on what actual basketball basis are we saying it makes sense to normalize relative to the level of basketball competence in the competition?

1. I was very critical of Nowitzki's holes in his offense. He was a 7 footer put the ball on the floor and had a great shooting touch. But he was rather easily disrupted if a defender went after his movement instead of his shot. That was the reason why McGrady owned his soul in 2005 postseason. Then despite being a different type of player, Haslem did the same in 2006 Finals (it was also an issue against the Spurs as his efficiency dipped when he was defended by Bowen but the Spurs couldn't afford having Bowen on Nowitzki full time). Then the same thing happened in 2007 postseason against Stephen Jackson. I definitely would not mind breaking down Nowitzki's offense.

2. I think you're seeing concepts over situations some times. The Lakers were burnt down, everyone was expecting them to switch gears, which they did after ASB but they turned it off again near end of the regular season to never flipping it, James had an insanely outlier series. There were 2 better teams experiencing anomalies. It wasn't like shooting put the Mavs over their opponents by concept and approach.

3. Scoring rate wise, they look pretty similar. Jokic's rebound rates are better but I don't think it's that much. While Nowitzki focused on boards more in postseason (his rates went up), Jokic loses out some in playoffs. Jokic's definitely miles ahead in passing. Nowitzki's scoring gravity, the attention he commanded with his sheer presence counters some of that for me. Nowitzki's scoring gravity is the main reason why he kept leading +7 offenses with entirely different roster structures and coaches. It's not as outlying as Jokic's passing, but it's more proven due to longer history.
If Jokic still improves, I might side with you but the way I see it as of now, there's not much separating the two.

4. Oh, definitely. I might prefer Nowitzki over Jokic on defensive end but both are far from ideal.

[falcolombardi]

So I want to be clear:

What you're responding to from me absolutely is "too much". I'm using hyperbole in places in this conversation. There are also times when I'm taking a more serious, and a more earnest and respectful, approach. Apologies if this is confusing. Fundamentally I have a lot of respect for Dirk.

As I say that: You're using relative ratings when my statement is one pushing back against relative ratings. I think the way folks have gotten used to essentially ignoring absolute rankings is problematic.

My main point was +7 postseason rORtg being massive no matter how we looked at it.
As we discussed in the past, relative Rtg numbers in regular seasons have a changing scale over time. However, anything beyond past 6 mark (5.4ish according to some of my personal analysis fwiw) for postseason is always quite significant. Even more so than quite significant but I couldn’t find the proper wording for it. It’s where you start to wonder if there’s an actual goat claim for an individual and you start to investigate even further.

I think what I'd say is this:

1. More physically in-prime Dirk's team got wrecked by a nothing Warriors team.
2. '10-11 saw the Mavs find a magic fit that allowed them to become the best in a playoff run where the super-team they faced didn't realize that shooting was important in the NBA.
3. Dirk's not clearly more effective than Jokic as a scorer at this point, and he's not in Jokic's league as a passer or rebounder.
4. Dirk had no glaring edge on defense.

So on what actual basketball basis are we saying it makes sense to normalize relative to the level of basketball competence in the competition?

mostly the lack of optimization on dirk mavs

even though they were ahead of their time, their 3 point volume, long 2 pointer volume and spacing around dirk was suboptimal compared to the average (not even to top teams) team of 2021

jokic plays in rosters that try to have 4 3 point shooters and cutters around him when he post ups or holds the ball which is a luxury dirk didnt have in his prime (maybe in some circunstancial rosters?)