What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

Post #1421 » by **Feed Your Head** » Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:09 pm

It’s crazy how scared teams already are of him lighting them up, also shows why we need to get him real help.

His 1.61 assist-to-turnover rate still lagged behind his top competitors, despite being double teamed on more than 20 possessions per game, the most among non-guards this season.

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Gomes3PC · Post #1422 » by **Gomes3PC** » Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:05 pm

He's 100% right. His passing steps have been as if not more important the increase in PPG. He's gone from an assist rate of 8% to 10% to 15% to 20% last year, and 23% in the playoffs this year, all while keeping his turnover rate consistent at ~10%. That's not exactly putting him in Luka territory, but if he can consistently get that up in the ~25% range with another development step, he'll be in the range guys like KD and Kawhi have attained at their peak powers.

Given this was the first year I felt he had true "primary initiator" responsibility, and he's only entering his 5th year in the league, there would seem to be a good jump to go from here. KDs assist rate in year 4 was 13%; for Kawhi it was 13%; for Paul George it was 18%; for Paul Pierce it was 16%. All those guys eclipsed 25% assist rates at their peaks (well, George is at 24.6% this year, technically).

Barring a total flatlining in improvement, I suspect Tatum will continue to make good strides as a passer, especially now that he's seeing how teams double him, trap him, play him away from the ball, etc.

Where I really want to see him work is on grifting. His FT rate is stagnant at a paltry 26%, though over his career it has spiked in the playoffs up to a career-best 44% this year. I suspect part of this is Tatum "pacing" himself in the regular season and being more assertive in the playoffs. Not necessarily something I mind, but I think the whole team would benefit and he would get more of a friendly whistle if he consistently drove during the regular season. After reverting his tendencies last year, he fell prey to way too many midrange shots last year (44% of shots were from 3-23 feet, up from 37% last year). He's got to further tighten his handle and also just be more assertive to not give up on his drives halfway, settling for those 8-15 foot jumpers. He didn't even shoot them particularly well, hitting just ~40% of those midrange shots.

So - in sum, be patient with him as a playmaker, it will continue to come. But if we want to see him leap to a true ALPHA, he's got to ditch the midrange and start barreling at the rim more. Shifting 10% of those crummy shots for rim shots (or 3s) will make a huge difference not just for him but for the whole team.

Gomes3PC · Post #1423 » by **Gomes3PC** » Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:28 pm

The double team rate also speaks to just how little teams thought of our other threats out there next to Tatum, particularly when Brown was not out there.

playa-hater · Post #1424 » by **playa-hater** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:24 am

Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.

Post #1425 » by **Feed Your Head** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:32 am

playa-hater wrote:Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.

Team was much worse defensively with Tatum on the court this year, same for Jaylen. Tatum turned it up a lot down the stretch though.

I think he will look more like last years version defensively, next season.

playa-hater · Post #1426 » by **playa-hater** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:33 am

The Comedian wrote:
playa-hater wrote:Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.

Team was much worse defensively with Tatum on the court this year, same for Jaylen. Tatum turned it up a lot down the stretch though.

I think he will look more like last years version defensively, next season.

Tatum played much of the year with some atrocious lineups in particularly the 2 Big lineups of Theis and TT. But when I watch him straight up cover a player, he seemingly shuts him down. Many have said Tatum is one of the better/best 2 way players. Defense is one of those 2 ways.

Post #1427 » by **Feed Your Head** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:36 am

playa-hater wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
playa-hater wrote:Can someone explain how the hell Tatum didn't receive any votes for all defensive teams?? I mean even J Brown received some. I don't have any data to back up what my eyes see and that Tatum is a hard payer to score on.

This really surprised me.

Team was much worse defensively with Tatum on the court this year, same for Jaylen. Tatum turned it up a lot down the stretch though.

I think he will look more like last years version defensively, next season.

Tatum played much of the year with some atrocious lineups in particularly the 2 Big lineups of Theis and TT. But when I watch him straight up cover a player, he seemingly shuts him down. Many have said Tatum is one of the better/best 2 way players. Defense is one of those 2 ways.

Do not need to tell me, I’m all in on Tatum as a two way superstar. I’m just saying this year he wasn’t great defensively, but I think the short offseason and covid played a big part in it.

Justin33 · Post #1428 » by **Justin33** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:18 am

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CelticsPride18 · Post #1429 » by **CelticsPride18** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:22 am

Celtics better spend that money that he lost on the team. I don’t want any luxury tax excuses.

playa-hater · Post #1430 » by **playa-hater** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:23 am

Justin33 wrote:

Read on Twitter
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?

Justin33 · Post #1431 » by **Justin33** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:26 am

playa-hater wrote:
Justin33 wrote:

Read on Twitter
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?

Nope real

makubesu · Post #1432 » by **makubesu** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:28 am

My big fear is that Tatum will think “if I was in New York/Los Angeles I’d have made all-nba”

itrsteve · Post #1433 » by **itrsteve** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:32 am

I hope he and Jaylen have a huge chip harness that energy for next year.

Also that Beal max just got bigger.

Tatumfor2 · Post #1434 » by **Tatumfor2** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:49 am

Justin33 wrote:
playa-hater wrote:
Justin33 wrote:

Read on Twitter
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?

Nope real

I'm irrationally mad about this. :banghead:

Post #1435 » by **Feed Your Head** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:07 am

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PierceFan4ever · Post #1436 » by **PierceFan4ever** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:13 am

Thanks Danny for creating such a garbage team for Tatum this season.

Post #1437 » by **Feed Your Head** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:14 am

This is just going to be a chip on Tatum’s shoulder, and will make him even more dangerous next season.

Post #1438 » by **canman1971** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:23 am

playa-hater wrote:
Justin33 wrote:

Read on Twitter
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Holy **** h*** is this a **** joke?

Shouldn’t be surprised. The NBA is a joke.

Post #1439 » by **Feed Your Head** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:25 am

A lot of this on Twitter right now.

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Mr_Mojo_Risin · Post #1440 » by **Mr_Mojo_Risin** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:27 am

Well that result is good for our cap right?

I can't really believe it though. However if I look at the 15 players, I cannot think any of them are not deserving. Maybe Kyrie from games missed. Thought Tatum had a better year than Butler but he was also very good.