[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Thunder

[Jaivl]

5) 2019 Paul George
Took a huge hit in the playoffs, but still, top 5 ish player on the regular season and clearly better than Paul or Harden. Not really an argument otherwise other than "ha-ha Lillard", even In terms of on/off he leads Paul BY FAR, both in RS and PS.

Shout out to Ray Allen.

Which on/off stat is this by the way?

Huh... all.

2019 George on/off: +16.5 (leader by a +7.0 margin) // +44.5 on the PO (36 min off)
2020 Paul on/off: +11.4 (leader by a +3.6 margin) // -0.1 on the PO (80 min off)

2019 George RAPM (nbashotcharts): +4.04 (#4) -- coming out of a +0.57 year, so the prior is not exactly doing heavy lifting
2020 Paul RAPM (nbashotcharts): +3.22 (#6)

2019 George LEBRON (bballindex all-in-one): +5.46 (#5)
2020 Paul LEBRON (bbalindex all-in-one): +5.07 (#5)

Plus a 600 minute advantage in all of these.

[Odinn21]

I don't agree with Durant being more valuable or more impactful than Westbrook in 2016.

This is just regular season RAPM;
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=335911072
Durant is 6th and Westbrook is 8th in RAPM / Durant is 11th and Westbrook is 4th in LA-RAPM. (That luck-adjustment is only a factor to shot variance afaik)

Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers are for rs+ps and in those numbers;
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZW5UBk5BwcrEhh4mEsWl_H1Y9QGTaMPaT4v6dSEIBIo/edit#gid=0
Durant is 32nd and Westbrook is 5th.

I don't like looking at raw postsason +/- swings because lineups tend to be too situational to account for in raw numbers. If Durant was as impactful as Westbrook, he wouldn't fall that much in adjusted numbers.

And my recollection, eye-test also had Westbrook as the more valuable player on 2016 Thunder roster, not Durant. I also watched some games, alas no full games because I don't have the time to scrutiny entire 2016 Thunder postseason and my recollection did not feel inaccurate.

---

1. 2017 Russell Westbrook
This is one of the highest motor, the highest effort seasons ever. He has a polarizing play style but it wasn't like he lacked quality. In the PI-RAPM numbers I mentioned, he was 33rd, he was still in top 7%. As someone who sees a certain correlation between productivity and impact (the way I see RAPM is that, it says "this player is this impactful when his on court production is this much"), this is one of the best seasons ever.

2. 2012 Kevin Durant
I know that he was a better player in 2014 and 2016, but this is his most complete season in OKC. His PI-RAPM rankings in 2012 and 2014 are pretty similar, 14th in 2012 and 10th in 2014. The reason why I'm going with the 2012 version here is the offensive jump in the postseason. The Thunder were 2nd in ORtg in reg. season with +5.2 rORtg and +6.6 NRtg team on overall. Durant had 6.2 obpm. Then in the playoffs, the Thunder faced -2.1 rDRtg teams (3 of top 10 defenses in the league) on average and I feel like this average undersells 2012 Spurs team. Durant led them to an insane +10.3 rORtg (+9.2 rDRtg) against that competition with +7.3 obpm.
I feel like 2014 is the other possible choice for him with Westbrook missing half of the season and Durant leading them to top 6 offense with 8.8 obpm. 2016 is weak compared to these 2.

(Fwiw, something like 2014 rs + 2012 ps would made me have Durant over 2016 or 2017 Westbrook but his strongest rs and ps runs just did not overlap for various reasons.)

3. 2000 Gary Payton
Not his defensive peak but he was still a rather positive impact. And that coupled with his offensive peak, I think this is the season for him. Everything loves him, box score numbers and +/- driven numbers. Malone and Stockton were pretty old by 2000 but they were leading the Jazz quite solidly still and Payton gave them quite a fight with a clearly worse team in a bo5.

4. 1982 Gus Williams
This is how WOWY works for me.
1980 Sonics were +4.5 NRtg team with Gus.
1981 Sonics were -1.6 NRtg with only Sikma because Gus sat out due to a contract dispute and DJ left.
1982 Sonics were +4.1 NRtg team with Gus once again, even when the team lost DJ in the meantime.
DJ's departure and better offensive output makes me choose 1982 for the player.

5. 2019 Paul George
I've always been quite fond of Allen's impact in 2005, but PG's weak to mid MVP level season just takes it.

HMs; 1969 Lenny Wilkens, 1984 Jack Sikma, 1996 Shawn Kemp, 2005 Ray Allen

[Djoker]

1. 2013-2014 Kevin Durant

Obviously the best player and this was his best Thunder season.

2. 1999-2000 Gary Payton
3. 2016-2017 Russell Westbrook

I think Payton was more conducive to winning than Westbrook. I find his statistical dominance less impressive than most. It's largely a result of holding the ball so much and getting uncontested rebounds that his bigs boxed out for him. I applaud Russ' energy and determination and love him for it but between non-existent defense, poor shooting efficiency and high turnovers I'm not sure that team doesn't get a lot better adding Payton. A little better is almost certain.

4. 2018-2019 Paul George

He was fantastic. 1st Team All-Defensive team and put up 28 ppg on great efficiency.

5. 1978-1979 Gus Williams

He had a simply ridiculous scoring run through the 1979 playoffs and was the key reason the Sonics won a championship.

[Doctor MJ]

5. 1978-1979 Gus Williams

He had a simply ridiculous scoring run through the 1979 playoffs and was the key reason the Sonics won a championship.

So, I have to say I think it's strange the way Gus has gotten the clear edge on the PC Board lately over DJ, given that this isn't in line with how the two were seen at the time.

I think it's worth noting that when Seattle won the championship, they did so by shutting down Washington's offense. This was the #2 offense in the league in the regular season with a 107.4 ORtg, and in the finals they fell to 96.2, and the voters from the time chose Dennis Johnson - a player known for his defense.

I feel like people are looking at the (offensively-slanted) box score and thinking "Well people back then must have just not understood that Gus was the first option", when they most certainly did understand it, and voted for another dude anyway.

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

[Doctor MJ]

1. '13-14 Kevin Durant - he got to show the most of himself this year without Westbrook
2. '16-17 Russell Westbrook - he got to show the most of himself this year without Durant
3. '18-19 Paul George - he was just a monster this year
4. '04-05 Ray Allen - I prefer how he was used in Milwaukee, but he was extraordinary for Seattle as well.
5. '95-96 Gary Payton - Not as big of a fan of him as some, but he was the leader of the GOAT Seattle team.

Shout outs to: DJ, Gus & Sikma, Kemp, Schrempf & Nate, Harden & Paul.

[Owly]

5. 1978-1979 Gus Williams

He had a simply ridiculous scoring run through the 1979 playoffs and was the key reason the Sonics won a championship.

So, I have to say I think it's strange the way Gus has gotten the clear edge on the PC Board lately over DJ, given that this isn't in line with how the two were seen at the time.

I think it's worth noting that when Seattle won the championship, they did so by shutting down Washington's offense. This was the #2 offense in the league in the regular season with a 107.4 ORtg, and in the finals they fell to 96.2, and the voters from the time chose Dennis Johnson - a player known for his defense.

I feel like people are looking at the (offensively-slanted) box score and thinking "Well people back then must have just not understood that Gus was the first option", when they most certainly did understand it, and voted for another dude anyway.

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

Some dissenting opinions:

Bullets offense was best at avoiding turnovers. Seattle don't take this away. Then they are good on the offensive glass. Seattle don't really take this away. They made a pedestrian shooting team into a bad shooting team. I won't claim to know how to parse credit, but it wasn't taking away a great team's great strength.

I'd be dubious claiming to know with "certainty" what unknown voters knew. I suspect few are putting forward that voting should be on what "option" you are, either.

DJ's being "in demand" ... about that. Two teams traded him because of his issues, in the first what I'd call a relatively diplomatic coach (Wilkens) used an analogy in which Johnson was compared to a cancer (Wilkens' biography suggests Paul Silas had called him a cancer earlier). In the second he was traded for cents on the dollar. It's not hard to be in demand when the price is Rickey Robey. Or are we talking internal demand ... that Boston (the one team that didn't suddenly cease to demand him) ... presumably over the cap because of Larry Bird rule allowing them to go over the cap to keep Bird didn't dump Johnson with no opportunity to replace him (bar end of the round picks). I'll grant they kept playing him but the options weren't great.

On longevity it's a side point (and generally in DJ's favor) but re: longevity of quality it depends on what quality of player you think DJ is in Boston, how you deal with Williams contract dispute year (from what I've read one issue was Seattle's position that him playing would give them another option year, whilst Williams was reportedly willing to play and get freedom at the end of the year - and other teams deterred by the risk of compensation).

I can see a big range on either man depending on interpretations of longevity, the importance of playoffs in evaluations, the range on interpretations of defense (degree and year-to-year evaluations re longevity of quality on that end) which I'd say is a fairly fuzzy matter in pre-impact era players (fwiw, both look good overall in WoWY, Williams looks better - large dash of salt with this).

Whilst I agree in areas (non-quantifiable D can often get overlooked) I think others could go the other way (DJ high in defensive accolades, but these often have strong legacy tails e.g. Kobe, Payton - I don't know if DJ is such a case, edit: there's also a possibility of of a champion/rings halo and perhaps a premature death "bounce" in perceptions) and I do see legit pro-Gus cases.


[edit] Regarding GW's rise, I don't think it's remotely a "versus DJ" thing. From my perspective, it's just he's been pointed to as a candidate as a playoff "riser" to those who prize such things. I don't so much, but think some that do haven't always so systematically.

[Doctor MJ]

5. 1978-1979 Gus Williams

He had a simply ridiculous scoring run through the 1979 playoffs and was the key reason the Sonics won a championship.

So, I have to say I think it's strange the way Gus has gotten the clear edge on the PC Board lately over DJ, given that this isn't in line with how the two were seen at the time.

I think it's worth noting that when Seattle won the championship, they did so by shutting down Washington's offense. This was the #2 offense in the league in the regular season with a 107.4 ORtg, and in the finals they fell to 96.2, and the voters from the time chose Dennis Johnson - a player known for his defense.

I feel like people are looking at the (offensively-slanted) box score and thinking "Well people back then must have just not understood that Gus was the first option", when they most certainly did understand it, and voted for another dude anyway.

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

Some dissenting opinions:

Bullets offense was best at avoiding turnovers. Seattle don't take this away. Then they are good on the offensive glass. Seattle don't really take this away. They made a pedestrian shooting team into a bad shooting team. I won't claim to know how to parse credit, but it wasn't taking away a great team's great strength.

I'd be dubious claiming to know with "certainty" what unknown voters knew. I suspect few are putting forward that voting should be on what "option" you are, either.

DJ's being "in demand" ... about that. Two teams traded him because of his issues, in the first what I'd call a relatively diplomatic coach (Wilkens) used an analogy in which Johnson was compared to a cancer (Wilkens' biography suggests Paul Silas had called him a cancer earlier). In the second he was traded for cents on the dollar. It's not hard to be in demand when the price is Rickey Robey. Or are we talking internal demand ... that Boston (the one team that didn't suddenly cease to demand him) ... presumably over the cap because of Larry Bird rule allowing them to go over the cap to keep Bird didn't dump Johnson with no opportunity to replace him (bar end of the round picks). I'll grant they kept playing him but the options weren't great.

On longevity it's a side point (and generally in DJ's favor) but re: longevity of quality it depends on what quality of player you think DJ is in Boston, how you deal with Williams contract dispute year (from what I've read one issue was Seattle's position that him playing would give them another option year, whilst Williams was reportedly willing to play and get freedom at the end of the year - and other teams deterred by the risk of compensation).

I can see a big range on either man depending on interpretations of longevity, the importance of playoffs in evaluations, the range on interpretations of defense (degree and year-to-year evaluations re longevity of quality on that end) which I'd say is a fairly fuzzy matter in pre-impact era players (fwiw, both look good overall in WoWY, Williams looks better - large dash of salt with this).

Whilst I agree in areas (non-quantifiable D can often get overlooked) I think others could go the other way (DJ high in defensive accolades, but these often have strong legacy tails e.g. Kobe, Payton - I don't know if DJ is such a case) and I do see legit pro-Gus cases.

Good points in general.

You're right that I can't know exactly what was in the heads of the voters. All we really know is that they were more impressed by DJ than Gus despite the fact that Gus was the bigger scorer and the older player.

Re: DJ in demand because cancerous. There's truth in this, but there's also truth that DJ won a lot more than Gus.

I just did a study of guys who were Top 5 minute guys on winning teams in series back to the merger. DJ's 10th on the list with 27 series - 2nd most of anyone drafted in the '70s behind Magic, which is more than Sikma & Gus combined. All necessary caveats about DJ being a mere role player on those Celtics, but they settled on him for a reason during their very best years.

I think there's a thing here where the Seattle championship really messes with perception. If they don't win that title, it hurts DJ's stature sure, but it renders Gus largely not-good-enough in his alpha scoring role. And my assessment has long been that they don't win that title if there hadn't been that dip in elite competition in the NBA between Walton's fall and Magic's arrival.

[Doctor MJ]

[
[edit] Regarding GW's rise, I don't think it's remotely a "versus DJ" thing. From my perspective, it's just he's been pointed to as a candidate as a playoff "riser" to those who prize such things. I don't so much, but think some that do haven't always so systematically.

Agree actually. It's more about DJ being forgotten and Gus having those playoff numbers so being re-evaluated.

I'm bringing up DJ specifically because I think pro-Gus folks need to reckon with the fact that contemporary observers were comparing the two of them, and not coming to the same conclusions as folks now.

And granted, that included the decision to trade away DJ, which can be seen as a Gus>DJ point, but that decision sure didn't seem a wise one. That core was really quite young there was good reason to think that the team's best days would still be ahead of them.

[falcolombardi]

award voters also picked iguodala over curry in 2015 i wouldnt take it at face value

imagine of 2015 warriors or 2008 celtics were teams from the 70's that we were less familiar with and have less footage of

we would use pierce and Iggy fmvp's as a hint voters thought they valued them more than curry and garnett

so i dont know how comfortable i am using who won fmvp as an argument of who was better

[TroubleS0me]

wow Westbrook over Durant....

[Doctor MJ]

award voters also picked iguodala over curry in 2015 i wouldnt take it at face value

imagine of 2015 warriors or 2008 celtics were teams from the 70's that we were less familiar with and have less footage of

we would use pierce and Iggy fmvp's as a hint voters thought they valued them more than curry and garnett

so i dont know how comfortable i am using who won fmvp as an argument of who was better

Hmm, I would disagree with this type of approach. Basically "If one decision one time for an award is bad, that means we ignore everything from every other year".

I always think you have to start by understanding as best you can what these folks were thinking and then course correct as necessary.

In the case of Iguodala, we know EXACTLY what they were thinking and that's why it's so damning. It's the only time in Finals MVP history where they specifically chose a guy who was inarguably not the best player in the series because there were reasons why picking either of the two real candidates was problematic to them.

If someone wants to make an argument for why DJ won the Finals MVP over Gus that makes DJ look worse, go for it, but I really don't see any reason to think that there was some bias toward DJ here. The question was always whether DJ's defense made up for Gus' volume scoring. Reasonable people can disagree on this, but I think we know how people voting at the time came down.

[Dutchball97]

award voters also picked iguodala over curry in 2015 i wouldnt take it at face value

imagine of 2015 warriors or 2008 celtics were teams from the 70's that we were less familiar with and have less footage of

we would use pierce and Iggy fmvp's as a hint voters thought they valued them more than curry and garnett

so i dont know how comfortable i am using who won fmvp as an argument of who was better

Hmm, I would disagree with this type of approach. Basically "If one decision one time for an award is bad, that means we ignore everything from every other year".

I always think you have to start by understanding as best you can what these folks were thinking and then course correct as necessary.

In the case of Iguodala, we know EXACTLY what they were thinking and that's why it's so damning. It's the only time in Finals MVP history where they specifically chose a guy who was inarguably not the best player in the series because there were reasons why picking either of the two real candidates was problematic to them.

If someone wants to make an argument for why DJ won the Finals MVP over Gus that makes DJ look worse, go for it, but I really don't see any reason to think that there was some bias toward DJ here. The question was always whether DJ's defense made up for Gus' volume scoring. Reasonable people can disagree on this, but I think we know how people voting at the time came down.

I actually agree with the point that DJ's Finals MVP was deserved. Gus in the 79 season played 36 mpg compared to 44 for both DJ and Sikma. Even then we're comparing DJ's 79 season with 1980 and 1982 for Gus. In those seasons Gus' minutes were upped to match DJ and Sikma. I see people declare DJ > Gus because of the Finals MVP but that title team is just a snapshot and Gus took on a bigger role the next year.

Can't it still be possible to see DJ as the rightful Finals MVP, while also believing Gus peaked higher for the franchise in 1980 and 1982?

[Owly]

So, I have to say I think it's strange the way Gus has gotten the clear edge on the PC Board lately over DJ, given that this isn't in line with how the two were seen at the time.

I think it's worth noting that when Seattle won the championship, they did so by shutting down Washington's offense. This was the #2 offense in the league in the regular season with a 107.4 ORtg, and in the finals they fell to 96.2, and the voters from the time chose Dennis Johnson - a player known for his defense.

I feel like people are looking at the (offensively-slanted) box score and thinking "Well people back then must have just not understood that Gus was the first option", when they most certainly did understand it, and voted for another dude anyway.

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

Some dissenting opinions:

Bullets offense was best at avoiding turnovers. Seattle don't take this away. Then they are good on the offensive glass. Seattle don't really take this away. They made a pedestrian shooting team into a bad shooting team. I won't claim to know how to parse credit, but it wasn't taking away a great team's great strength.

I'd be dubious claiming to know with "certainty" what unknown voters knew. I suspect few are putting forward that voting should be on what "option" you are, either.

DJ's being "in demand" ... about that. Two teams traded him because of his issues, in the first what I'd call a relatively diplomatic coach (Wilkens) used an analogy in which Johnson was compared to a cancer (Wilkens' biography suggests Paul Silas had called him a cancer earlier). In the second he was traded for cents on the dollar. It's not hard to be in demand when the price is Rickey Robey. Or are we talking internal demand ... that Boston (the one team that didn't suddenly cease to demand him) ... presumably over the cap because of Larry Bird rule allowing them to go over the cap to keep Bird didn't dump Johnson with no opportunity to replace him (bar end of the round picks). I'll grant they kept playing him but the options weren't great.

On longevity it's a side point (and generally in DJ's favor) but re: longevity of quality it depends on what quality of player you think DJ is in Boston, how you deal with Williams contract dispute year (from what I've read one issue was Seattle's position that him playing would give them another option year, whilst Williams was reportedly willing to play and get freedom at the end of the year - and other teams deterred by the risk of compensation).

I can see a big range on either man depending on interpretations of longevity, the importance of playoffs in evaluations, the range on interpretations of defense (degree and year-to-year evaluations re longevity of quality on that end) which I'd say is a fairly fuzzy matter in pre-impact era players (fwiw, both look good overall in WoWY, Williams looks better - large dash of salt with this).

Whilst I agree in areas (non-quantifiable D can often get overlooked) I think others could go the other way (DJ high in defensive accolades, but these often have strong legacy tails e.g. Kobe, Payton - I don't know if DJ is such a case) and I do see legit pro-Gus cases.

Good points in general.

You're right that I can't know exactly what was in the heads of the voters. All we really know is that they were more impressed by DJ than Gus despite the fact that Gus was the bigger scorer and the older player.

Re: DJ in demand because cancerous. There's truth in this, but there's also truth that DJ won a lot more than Gus.

I just did a study of guys who were Top 5 minute guys on winning teams in series back to the merger. DJ's 10th on the list with 27 series - 2nd most of anyone drafted in the '70s behind Magic, which is more than Sikma & Gus combined. All necessary caveats about DJ being a mere role player on those Celtics, but they settled on him for a reason during their very best years.

I think there's a thing here where the Seattle championship really messes with perception. If they don't win that title, it hurts DJ's stature sure, but it renders Gus largely not-good-enough in his alpha scoring role. And my assessment has long been that they don't win that title if there hadn't been that dip in elite competition in the NBA between Walton's fall and Magic's arrival.

See my previous post for the reason ... the cost was Rickey Robey. And I suppose that he was better than Gerald Henderson or Quinn Buckner (or later Carlisle or Sam Vincent or Sichting etc or anyone they could get and nurture at the back end of the draft). I can see the (imo reasonable version of the) case for being very high on him. It's being very high on his D and longevity of quality on D (and maybe sympathetic on the intangible issues). For me, and this is just my opinion, not so much arbitrary cutoff (5th) stuff relating to team achievement in small samples (series).

The dip/rivals missing point is interesting and my brief note is (a) this depends on whether Gus is valued as a ringz versus playoff raising in general and secondly this is arguably not dissimilar to my comp below with regard to the next great team not ready, the last stars injured opening a window for a good but not exceptional team.

[
[edit] Regarding GW's rise, I don't think it's remotely a "versus DJ" thing. From my perspective, it's just he's been pointed to as a candidate as a playoff "riser" to those who prize such things. I don't so much, but think some that do haven't always so systematically.

Agree actually. It's more about DJ being forgotten and Gus having those playoff numbers so being re-evaluated.

I'm bringing up DJ specifically because I think pro-Gus folks need to reckon with the fact that contemporary observers were comparing the two of them, and not coming to the same conclusions as folks now.

And granted, that included the decision to trade away DJ, which can be seen as a Gus>DJ point, but that decision sure didn't seem a wise one. That core was really quite young there was good reason to think that the team's best days would still be ahead of them.

Okay well, as others note, they bounce back really strong with Gus back. And the coach and respected veteran independently called him a cancer. And the Suns give him away 3 years down the line. So was it a mistake to trade him if Westphal is destined to be injured. Sure. But without being on the inside the impression is that Supersonics didn't feel like they had a choice. And to be honest it seems like how you perceive the Marion in Phoenix issue, in this case (beyond the aforementioned coach and veteran "cancer" comments) with the coach openly and repeatedly stating the resentment of teammates (after the fact of course) and concluding a paragraph about DJ with what could be read as an implication ... well

As a coach, there wasn't much I could do about it. Dennis wanted more money. The owner wouldn't give him more money. Dennis wanted more attention from the fans, but the fans liked Fred Brown best. Intellectually, Dennis didn't blame me or his team-mates for this, but emotionally, he was wounded and couldn't stop the anger from gushing to the surface. Players are the first to know when a teammate is no longer on the same page with them. And it's easy for them to say, "Screw it; if that guy is going to shoot all the time, so am I."

On "perception at the time" Gus has double the MVP shares (albeit at a low level and with what may be a solid narrative platform in his comeback year (depending on how one perceived him for the year missed - many will always look at players turning not accepting big money in absolute terms to play a game as greedy) and, to my mind would have a better All-NBA record if he hadn't missed '81, based on his record in the surrounding years.


Getting super-tangential here but for me the best anchor/comparison for Gus is Isiah. Isiah closer to a pure point, Gus less turnover prone, Isiah better longevity though not always of great quality. Both substantially dependent on playoffs in their case for greatness. And for me that mostly means Isiah a lot lower than the norm. But maybe Gus a bit higher too (at least versus what I'd perceive as conventional wisdom).

[70sFan]

5. 1978-1979 Gus Williams

He had a simply ridiculous scoring run through the 1979 playoffs and was the key reason the Sonics won a championship.

So, I have to say I think it's strange the way Gus has gotten the clear edge on the PC Board lately over DJ, given that this isn't in line with how the two were seen at the time.

I think it's worth noting that when Seattle won the championship, they did so by shutting down Washington's offense. This was the #2 offense in the league in the regular season with a 107.4 ORtg, and in the finals they fell to 96.2, and the voters from the time chose Dennis Johnson - a player known for his defense.

I feel like people are looking at the (offensively-slanted) box score and thinking "Well people back then must have just not understood that Gus was the first option", when they most certainly did understand it, and voted for another dude anyway.

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

We also have to remember that although DJ was great defender (he was extremely good in Seattle, one of the better guard defenders ever), he wasn't their best or most important defender. Sikma was always very good defender and his sound positioning and BBIQ certainly helped agressive guards. Lonnie Shelton was forever underrated prototypical PF, but he was quite versatile defender as well and a true banger. John Johnson wasn't terrible either and even Gus was decent enough on that end.

It's true that Seattle won because of their defense, but DJ wasn't the reason why their defense was so strong.

[Doctor MJ]

award voters also picked iguodala over curry in 2015 i wouldnt take it at face value

imagine of 2015 warriors or 2008 celtics were teams from the 70's that we were less familiar with and have less footage of

we would use pierce and Iggy fmvp's as a hint voters thought they valued them more than curry and garnett

so i dont know how comfortable i am using who won fmvp as an argument of who was better

Hmm, I would disagree with this type of approach. Basically "If one decision one time for an award is bad, that means we ignore everything from every other year".

I always think you have to start by understanding as best you can what these folks were thinking and then course correct as necessary.

In the case of Iguodala, we know EXACTLY what they were thinking and that's why it's so damning. It's the only time in Finals MVP history where they specifically chose a guy who was inarguably not the best player in the series because there were reasons why picking either of the two real candidates was problematic to them.

If someone wants to make an argument for why DJ won the Finals MVP over Gus that makes DJ look worse, go for it, but I really don't see any reason to think that there was some bias toward DJ here. The question was always whether DJ's defense made up for Gus' volume scoring. Reasonable people can disagree on this, but I think we know how people voting at the time came down.

I actually agree with the point that DJ's Finals MVP was deserved. Gus in the 79 season played 36 mpg compared to 44 for both DJ and Sikma. Even then we're comparing DJ's 79 season with 1980 and 1982 for Gus. In those seasons Gus' minutes were upped to match DJ and Sikma. I see people declare DJ > Gus because of the Finals MVP but that title team is just a snapshot and Gus took on a bigger role the next year.

Can't it still be possible to see DJ as the rightful Finals MVP, while also believing Gus peaked higher for the franchise in 1980 and 1982?

Yup, that's still possible.

[Odinn21]

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

DJ was #4 on a team with Bird/McHale/Parish.

If DJ was as impactful as Gus, the Suns teams he was a part of would do better than they did. The Suns wouldn't take a huge hit in 1982 compared to 1981 and 1983 when Walter Davis was struggling due to injuries.

Both of these 2 players you would not want to see as the best player on a top heavy contending roster. But DJ being a better complementary piece does not mean he should be favoured like this, especially when his "not faded away" times is supported by one of the goat trios.

Also, I'm surprised by you going "spoken at the time" type of approach. We have better tools to analyse what happened. But BBRef's ORtg-DRtg numbers prior to 1983-84 season are not among them as they tend to be incredibly off and wonky at a high frequency due to lack of complete box tracking. Watching the Sonics games at the time, I was more like "how are you guys taking DJ this seriously" towards announcers and I was coming from the fact that as one of two primary ball-handlers on the team, his turnover economy sucked hard, his ppp rates in numerous situations were straight up bad, factoring his time on the ball, it was even worse because his point production (pts+ast) per time spent on the ball was atrocious. I'm quite surprised by your pro-DJ stance on this one.

[Doctor MJ]

Okay well, as others note, they bounce back really strong with Gus back. And the coach and respected veteran independently called him a cancer. And the Suns give him away 3 years down the line. So was it a mistake to trade him if Westphal is destined to be injured. Sure. But without being on the inside the impression is that Supersonics didn't feel like they had a choice. And to be honest it seems like how you perceive the Marion in Phoenix issue, in this case (beyond the aforementioned coach and veteran "cancer" comments) with the coach openly and repeatedly stating the resentment of teammates (after the fact of course) and concluding a paragraph about DJ with what could be read as an implication ... well

Good points in general. Responding here because you mentioned my feelings about Marion.

Much of why I criticize is that he was in the perfect situation for him, fantasized completely unrealistically about being the main offensive force on another team, and then ended up leaving and showing the world how much the Phoenix context is what made him special.

DJ? Plays largely the same role his entire career and proves valuable wherever he goes.

To be clear, I rank Marion's peak ahead of DJ's without hesitation. Nash or no, I saw what Marion was doing and how effective he was. I don't think DJ was ever having that much impact.

But yeah, I specifically tend to penalize guys' careers who blew up their best possible situation, and DJ doesn't qualify given that he played on some of the greatest teams of all time and what they all had in common was there was an alpha way better than Gus.

[falcolombardi]

also johnson winning the 79 fmvp is not necesarrily proof he was more well regarded at the time

just like Maxwell was not held in higher esteem than larry bird, or iguodala in higher esteem than curry

it may have been just that series that voters were higher on

[Doctor MJ]

What I'll also note here is that I think that as far as first options go, Gus ain't that great, whereas DJ is a guy who fits in with first options of all stripes, which is why DJ kept being demand on great teams well after Gus had faded away. We're in a project about peaks here so I'm not saying that longevity should be an actual factor, but if I'm wanting to win a championship in the era these guys played, I'm taking DJ without hesitation.

DJ was #4 on a team with Bird/McHale/Parish.

If DJ was as impactful as Gus, the Suns teams he was a part of would do better than they did. The Suns wouldn't take a huge hit in 1982 compared to 1981 and 1983 when Walter Davis was struggling due to injuries.

Both of these 2 players you would not want to see as the best player on a top heavy contending roster. But DJ being a better complementary piece does not mean he should be favoured like this, especially when his "not faded away" times is supported by one of the goat trios.

Also, I'm surprised by you going "spoken at the time" type of approach. We have better tools to analyse what happened. But BBRef's ORtg-DRtg numbers prior to 1983-84 season are not among them as they tend to be incredibly off and wonky at a high frequency due to lack of complete box tracking. Watching the Sonics games at the time, I was more like "how are you guys taking DJ this seriously" towards announcers and I was coming from the fact that as one of two primary ball-handlers on the team, his turnover economy sucked hard, his ppp rates in numerous situations were straight up bad, factoring his time on the ball, it was even worse because his point production (pts+ast) per time spent on the ball was atrocious. I'm quite surprised by your pro-DJ stance on this one.

DJ was #4 on the Celtics. True, and Gus would have no place on a team that good other than perhaps 6th man.

Re: If DJ were as impactful as Gus, Suns would have done better in 1982 relative to 1981 & 1983. Aside from the fact that replacing a volume scorer isn't the best way to judge DJ's impact, it's worth noting that DJ led them to a playoff advancement in 1982 which they didn't have in 1981 & 1983, making it a strange here to argue "they fell apart" logic.

Re: being a complementary piece should not mean he's favored. As I've said before, I tend to be focused on who can play a role on a championship team, and I think DJ is better suited for this than Gus. I know you see things differently though.

Re: Surprised; spoken at the time. Not saying we must defer to those at the time, only that I deviate from them only when I have good cause.

I'm also biased by the fact that I don't take that Seattle team all that seriously in general, particularly on offense, which is where Gus' argument comes in.

I will say arguments against DJ's defensive impact matter to me. I do think DJ's argument over Gus has everything to do with defense, so if that turns out to be overrated, that changes things.

[Doctor MJ]

also johnson winning the 79 fmvp is not necesarrily proof he was more well regarded at the time

just like Maxwell was not held in higher esteem than larry bird, or iguodala in higher esteem than curry

it may have been just that series that voters were higher on

Dude, I already responded to the Iguodala point.

Re: Maxwell vs Bird. Well there what you have is just scoring myopia. When they give the award to the biggest scorer, no other explanation is really necessary.