Trade Talk (Part Six)

[jpatrick]

Simmons is perimeter player that can’t shoot at all. His man literally stands just outside the paint. He is not even a bad shooter, he’s a complete non-shooter, which is much worse.

Talk about clogging lanes for Towns/Edwards. And he can’t even run a pick and roll, which is like 90% of NBA offense, because his man simply sags off 10 feet.

He’s still a useful NBA player but not at the cost of a max salary, a top 3 pick in a stacked top of the draft, and probably other assets. If it’s DLo and a protected first for Simmons than probably, but that’s not happening.

[Calinks]

Jazz may be blowing things up too. I don't know what it is but this post-season feels a lot more significant than most others. The stakes just seem a lot higher and these losing teams seem like they are going to make big moves. We already see a ton of coaches getting fired.

[packforfreedom]

Simmons is a perimeter player who can't shoot in a shooters league.

Maybe that's part of the problem. Why does Simmons have to be considered only a perimeter player? I think people are thinking too limited with him. Look how Boris Diaw's career grew when he moved from PG to PF. Simmons is starting at a higher level than Diaw ever was, but I think he could improve in a similar way.

even if we assume Simmons playing PF, he's still a non shooter who can't be passed to in the finals minutes of a close game. This is okay as a defensive specialist but not as a max player. It's fair to mention that positions of players can change but Diaw was always a role player.

If you have a team that is 100% tailored around him Simmons no matter the position, it might work but we are not that team, and he's too expensive to take that gamble.

[shangrila]

Jazz may be blowing things up too. I don't know what it is but this post-season feels a lot more significant than most others. The stakes just seem a lot higher and these losing teams seem like they are going to make big moves. We already see a ton of coaches getting fired.

I doubt that teams are as reactionary as fans are around here.

I expect Conley to move on and that could hurt, but aside from that I'd expect them to return largely the same team. People seem to forget they were the #1 seed for a reason.

[Neeva]

The Jazz didn’t seem like a true number one seed to me (but maybe that’s because the wolves gave them so much trouble this season) They had three “all stars” and 6th MOY and couldn’t beat a Kawhi less clippers in two straight games, ouch.

[Calinks]

The Jazz didn’t seem like a true number one seed to me (but maybe that’s because the wolves gave them so much trouble this season) They had three “all stars” and 6th MOY and couldn’t beat a Kawhi less clippers in two straight games, ouch.

Yea, They play really well, they are a lot of talent but they never put fear in me or struck me as a real contender. I like the chances of the 76ers, Nets, Bucks, Nuggets, Lakers, Warriros, of winning a title a lot more than the Jazz any time soon.

[shrink]

If any of you want an in-depth look at Ben Simmons, Zach Lowe’s last podcast has an interview with a well-respected PHI blogger that is worth a listen.

[IceManBK1]

i think an underrated signing would be nerlens noel. he's one of the cheap defensive bigs we can sign. can spend some mins at pf or center next to towns and provide shot blocking. i wouldn't oppose to starting him at pf. he's lean and mobile enough to guard 4s.

[SO_MONEY]

There are cheaper options for defense out there dude.

This.

2021/2022 salaries....

First Team:
$39,344,970 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Forward)
$35,344,828 - Rudy Gobert (Center)
$31,590,000 - Ben Simmons (Guard)
$30,133,333 - Jrue Holiday (Guard)
$24,026,712 - Draymond Green (Forward)

Second Team:
$36,016,200 - Kawhi Leonard (Forward)
$36,016,200 - Jimmy Butler (Guard)
$28,103,550 - Bam Adebayo (Center)
$13,302,325 - Brook Lopez (Center)
$02,840,160 - Matisse Thybulle (Guard)

Keep in mind, Ben Simmons is far more dynamic offensively than Rudy Gobert, Matisse Thybulle, and (at this point) Draymond Green, and roughly the same offensively as Bam Adebayo. I don't know how many times I am going to harp on this, but Ben Simmons is comfortably a top three defensive player in the entire League, can defend all five positions, is an elite ballhandler and facilitator, plays well as a cutter, and is a great finisher, despite defenses packing the paint on his drives. He's also twenty-four.

Minnesota has played Rudy Gobert off of the court (as has Golden State, in the past), does that make him not worth a maximum contract? Of course not, that would be a ludicrous assertion, but here we are in crazy town making the same assertion towards Ben Simmons, when Minnesota has the greatest three-point shooting Center in NBA history, D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Anthony Edwards to surround Ben Simmons, along with Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, and Jaylen Nowell coming off the bench. The fit is obvious, I am pretty much content leaving it at that, if people actually don't have interest acknowledging that.

Meh. You don't need to be all NBA to be a good to great defender and all this really shows is there are some bad contracts because people overpaid marginal or aging talent. Wouldn't want the majority (60%) of them at their rates.

[_AIJ_]

If the sixers offered simmons for the #3 pick, they should take it and run away! Simmons is a game changer for this team. Who cares if hes so bad at free throws, hes IS GOOD

[life_saver]

If any of you want an in-depth look at Ben Simmons, Zach Lowe’s last podcast has an interview with a well-respected PHI blogger that is worth a listen.

do you have link to that episode?

[shrink]

If any of you want an in-depth look at Ben Simmons, Zach Lowe’s last podcast has an interview with a well-respected PHI blogger that is worth a listen.

do you have link to that episode?

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/10528553

It’s the third segment. 6/17

[shrink]

There were times in the playoffs when Simmons was on the perimeter that his defender played 15 feet off him, clogging the lane. As the podcaster pointed out, Simmons can’t use the space and make him pay. This specific flaw is a dagger in the heart for Minnesota, who’s only true match up advantage is forcing every opposing defensive big to need to come out to the perimeter.

Simmons may be the type of player that helps a team win a lot of regular season games, but hurts you in the playoffs. For MIN, winning more regular season games would be nice, but I would hope we have higher ambitions with our third max deal.

[Norseman79]

Does the NBA have a reliable draft pick value chart like the NFL does? I only ask because if we end up with the third pick, I'm wondering if it would be possible to trade down and pick up a first next year so we technically don't go without one. People say that this is a top 4-5 player type of draft... Well, if we end up keeping our pick and it isn't top two, and Cunningham and Mobley are gone, would there be value in simply dropping down to as low as we needed in exchange for just a first next year? Seems like there might be some interesting players in the middle of this draft and that securing at least a first round pick next year might be worth it. A team that has multiple firsts this year and next year may not sweat it, especially if they want one of the top players but are outside the top five in the lottery.

[m2002brian]

Does the NBA have a reliable draft pick value chart like the NFL does? I only ask because if we end up with the third pick, I'm wondering if it would be possible to trade down and pick up a first next year so we technically don't go without one. People say that this is a top 4-5 player type of draft... Well, if we end up keeping our pick and it isn't top two, and Cunningham and Mobley are gone, would there be value in simply dropping down to as low as we needed in exchange for just a first next year? Seems like there might be some interesting players in the middle of this draft and that securing at least a first round pick next year might be worth it. A team that has multiple firsts this year and next year may not sweat it, especially if they want one of the top players but are outside the top five in the lottery.

Take Suggs and celebrate.

[SmokeyPaw]

Does the NBA have a reliable draft pick value chart like the NFL does? I only ask because if we end up with the third pick, I'm wondering if it would be possible to trade down and pick up a first next year so we technically don't go without one. People say that this is a top 4-5 player type of draft... Well, if we end up keeping our pick and it isn't top two, and Cunningham and Mobley are gone, would there be value in simply dropping down to as low as we needed in exchange for just a first next year? Seems like there might be some interesting players in the middle of this draft and that securing at least a first round pick next year might be worth it. A team that has multiple firsts this year and next year may not sweat it, especially if they want one of the top players but are outside the top five in the lottery.

Not sure if there is a chart like that, but drafts vary significantly and I'd distrust a generic draft value chart.

I think its a pretty big drop after 4 or 5 (depends on how one feels about kuminga) - at least a full tier. I'd take the high quality pick now rather than gamble on two picks, one of which is clearly worse. Any of cunningham, mobley or suggs would improve the rotation now.

[SO_MONEY]

There were times in the playoffs when Simmons was on the perimeter that his defender played 15 feet off him, clogging the lane. As the podcaster pointed out, Simmons can’t use the space and make him pay. This specific flaw is a dagger in the heart for Minnesota, who’s only true match up advantage is forcing every opposing defensive big to need to come out to the perimeter.

Simmons may be the type of player that helps a team win a lot of regular season games, but hurts you in the playoffs. For MIN, winning more regular season games would be nice, but I would hope we have higher ambitions with our third max deal.

Honestly, his flaws are fatal. He is a player nearly every team would struggle with building around and because of his salary it compounds the problem. I view him as a negative asset regardless of his skills in other areas. I have no doubt a team might overpay, I don't want it to be us. If the league is on top of this and he only commands a modest asset, I might be okay with that, I just don't see one on our roster that matches up well. Beasley might be the closest, but in today's NBA I really think his elite shooting is more valuable and a hell of a lot easier to fit in, especially at half the cost.

[shrink]

Does the NBA have a reliable draft pick value chart like the NFL does? I only ask because if we end up with the third pick, I'm wondering if it would be possible to trade down and pick up a first next year so we technically don't go without one. People say that this is a top 4-5 player type of draft... Well, if we end up keeping our pick and it isn't top two, and Cunningham and Mobley are gone, would there be value in simply dropping down to as low as we needed in exchange for just a first next year? Seems like there might be some interesting players in the middle of this draft and that securing at least a first round pick next year might be worth it. A team that has multiple firsts this year and next year may not sweat it, especially if they want one of the top players but are outside the top five in the lottery.

Not sure if there is a chart like that, but drafts vary significantly and I'd distrust a generic draft value chart.

I think its a pretty big drop after 4 or 5 (depends on how one feels about kuminga) - at least a full tier. I'd take the high quality pick now rather than gamble on two picks, one of which is clearly worse. Any of cunningham, mobley or suggs would improve the rotation now.

Bullseye. The top 4-5 picks have the potential to be franchise players.

If you are looking for something in general, that averages out several drafts, I like this old article

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

I use Table 2.

I also use a heuristic for swapping uneven number of picks, since teams are limited in roster slots, and you can only play five players at a time. If a team is using two picks, I value the second pick at half value. If they add a third pick, that one adds a third. It might be easier to show, using the Table.

Suppose I had the #17 and #23 pick, and I wanted to know how high that would get me if I traded both for a higher pick. According to the table:

#17 = 40%
#23 = 29%

40 + (29/2) = 54.5

Looking at the table, 54.5 is worth between the #11-12 pick.

In the past, this heuristic has been reasonably close to actual trade results, but SmokeyPaw is completely right - individual drafts matter, especially if you are trading a potential franchise player for a pair that .. aren’t.

[Baseline81]

There were times in the playoffs when Simmons was on the perimeter that his defender played 15 feet off him, clogging the lane. As the podcaster pointed out, Simmons can’t use the space and make him pay. This specific flaw is a dagger in the heart for Minnesota, who’s only true match up advantage is forcing every opposing defensive big to need to come out to the perimeter.

Simmons may be the type of player that helps a team win a lot of regular season games, but hurts you in the playoffs. For MIN, winning more regular season games would be nice, but I would hope we have higher ambitions with our third max deal.

The podcast also mentioned how Rivers has Simmons standing instead of cutting, screening, etc.

[Nick K]

Does the NBA have a reliable draft pick value chart like the NFL does? I only ask because if we end up with the third pick, I'm wondering if it would be possible to trade down and pick up a first next year so we technically don't go without one. People say that this is a top 4-5 player type of draft... Well, if we end up keeping our pick and it isn't top two, and Cunningham and Mobley are gone, would there be value in simply dropping down to as low as we needed in exchange for just a first next year? Seems like there might be some interesting players in the middle of this draft and that securing at least a first round pick next year might be worth it. A team that has multiple firsts this year and next year may not sweat it, especially if they want one of the top players but are outside the top five in the lottery.

Take Suggs and celebrate.

Mobley is the perfrect fit and a great player already with plenty of upside. We are desperate for a PF.