Rui Hachimura 2.0

[prime1time]

It would be a bad look for Rui--probably the world's highest profile Japanese player--to not play for Japan in an Olympics taking place in Japan. Assuming Rui is healthy, he should play.

Most NBA players are going to be playing/competing somewhere during the offseason. (Very few of them will be shutting it down for any extended period of time.)

It might be a good thing that Rui is playing organized ball in a situation that the Zards can closely monitor.

Hopefully they have some sort of load management situation where they track his workouts and his exertion.

[payitforward]

I keep reading that Rui improved this year over last year.

Some people think he improved "marginally" -- i.e. a little bit. Others think he improved quite a lot.

I'm trying to figure out what these people mean. I.e. *how* did Rui improve from last year to this year? In what did he improve? How much?

Don't get me wrong -- I can see a few areas where the numbers show improvement. Better numbers equal "improvement." Only a fool could disagree with that. But, I can also see a few areas where the numbers show no improvement at all. & I can see some places where the numbers show Rui was worse this year than he was last year.

Can anyone explain what the actual evidence is that Rui Hachimura right now is an improved player over Rui Hachimura after his rookie year? I'm not looking for words of praise -- those come easy. I am hoping for real evidence.

Here's an example of what I mean:

This year, Rui shot the 3 at .328, which is up from last year. That's improvement. Now... no one would call that "good," but that's not the point. It's unquestionably "improvement" -- if it weren't, why then the word would have no meaning.

A similar example, but in the opposite direction, is presented by Rui's FT %. Last year it was .829, this year it was .77. That's decline. Unquestionably -- if it weren't, why then the word would have no meaning.

So... I think this is a fair request, & I'd love some real response (i.e. not rhetoric, not name-calling, but actual facts & discussion of actual facts).

I'll hope to read something significant & learn something.

[9 and 20]

Rui 'Eye Test' Hachimura.

He's more aggressive now, even if it's not as consistent as we'd like it to be. He's shooting the three more, and better. Still might forever be a Jamison-level rebounder, but that's fine. If the three keeps improving and he is more consistent on the defensive end, then he's a pretty good forward. Not Giannis, but pretty good. I didn't notice the free throw thing, but it may because he went from decent to OK-ish. The 3-point shooting - more and significantly better - was more noticeable.

Kyle Kuzma seems a decent comparison. Maybe Jamison? Also, possibly, Lebron James.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I keep reading that Rui improved this year over last year.

Some people think he improved "marginally" -- i.e. a little bit. Others think he improved quite a lot.

I'm trying to figure out what these people mean. I.e. *how* did Rui improve from last year to this year? In what did he improve? How much?

Don't get me wrong -- I can see a few areas where the numbers show improvement. Better numbers equal "improvement." Only a fool could disagree with that. But, I can also see a few areas where the numbers show no improvement at all. & I can see some places where the numbers show Rui was worse this year than he was last year.

Can anyone explain what the actual evidence is that Rui Hachimura right now is an improved player over Rui Hachimura after his rookie year? I'm not looking for words of praise -- those come easy. I am hoping for real evidence.

Here's an example of what I mean:

This year, Rui shot the 3 at .328, which is up from last year. That's improvement. Now... no one would call that "good," but that's not the point. It's unquestionably "improvement" -- if it weren't, why then the word would have no meaning.

A similar example, but in the opposite direction, is presented by Rui's FT %. Last year it was .829, this year it was .77. That's decline. Unquestionably -- if it weren't, why then the word would have no meaning.

So... I think this is a fair request, & I'd love some real response (i.e. not rhetoric, not name-calling, but actual facts & discussion of actual facts).

I'll hope to read something significant & learn something.

Basically there's a fundamental disconnect between the eye-test people and the stats people because the eye-test people see Rui sometimes doing things on the court that are things really good players do, look at his intangibles and physical profile, and think he's improving, even though in reality he's not doing them consistently enough to actually be a good player, which is what quantitative evidence shows. But people who look at his stats sort of imply that Rui will *never* be a good player, or at least is no more likely to be a good player than any other player rocking a 12.0 PER at the end of their sophomore year (which is also linked to the trade down discussion - after the #1-3 (at most 5) pick depending on the strength of the class, its basically a crapshoot, so a forward thinking GM needs to exploit a massive, systemic market inefficiency within NBA general managers who overvalue top 10 picks and get more rolls of the dice, instead of thinking that you have a set of loaded dice just because the number on the die is higher). But there are good reasons to think that Rui can outrun his quantitative projections, though there's no guarantee he will.

[nate33]

Can anyone explain what the actual evidence is that Rui Hachimura right now is an improved player over Rui Hachimura after his rookie year? I'm not looking for words of praise -- those come easy. I am hoping for real evidence.

Rui became a better shooter from everywhere on the floor, particularly from floater range. The problem is, because of Westbrook's lack of spacing, Rui was driven further from the basket and forced to take more difficult shots. If he could have maintained his shot distribution from last season, but with his shooting percentages of this season, you would have seen a 3% improvement in his TS%, putting him in the .580 range.



His improved shooting from everywhere on the floor has allowed him to be passably efficient as an offensive player despite no longer shooting from the most favorable spots on the floor; which allows other, weaker offensive players to benefit from shooting from the most favorable spots on the floor. That's one of the reasons that his on/off improved from -6.1 to -1.8.

[gesa2]

Although I of course hope Rui develops into an above average nba player (star seems very unlikely) I’ve thought PIFs stats over eye test approach was likely correct. But you make a very good point here Nate.

[payitforward]

Rui 'Eye Test' Hachimura.

He's more aggressive now...

This is a pretty typical claim. Only... what makes you think so?

Maybe you mean something simple, like that he scored more points this year than last year. But he didn't. He scored slightly fewer points this year than he did last year.

Did he take more shots his 2d year than his first? Is that what you mean? Only... he didn't. He shot slightly less often his 2d year than his first year.

Did he get to the line more often his 2d year than his first year? No, he got to the line slightly less often this year than last.

Did he get more offensive rebounds this year? I can imagine thinking of that as a sign of being "more aggressive." Only... he didn't in fact, his offensive boards dropped substantially. His defensive boards dropped a bit as well, btw.

Do you perhaps mean that he saw the floor better, made better passes? Well... his assists went down @27%.

Conclusion: no Rui is not "more aggressive now." Not at all.

Moreover, overall all those numbers are both pretty bad & in sum, represent a meaningful drop, decline, getting worse, from his rookie year.

Are we clear on that? Fewer points, fewer defensive boards, fewer offensive boards, fewer assists -- &, in addition, a slight rise in turnovers, a slight drop in blocked shots, & a slight drop in fouls (finally! something got better!)

He's shooting the three more, and better. ...

Rui shot the 3 extremely rarely & very poorly as a rookie. This year, Rui shot the 3 a little more -- by which I mean that every 140 possessions, Rui took 1 more 3 point shot than he did last year. Wow, huh?

IOW, Rui still shoots 3-pointers pretty rarely. In fact, this year Rui shot a 3 pointer 41.5% as often as often as average for an NBA 4. Read that again.

Last year, his 3pt. % was 28.7%. This year he went up to 32.7% & there you have the big "improvement." The thing everyone wants to point to. Look how well Rui is doing! Only one little problem: on average an NBA 4 shoots his almost 2.5 times as many 3's at 36.8%.

Still might forever be a Jamison-level rebounder, but that's fine. If the three keeps improving and he is more consistent on the defensive end, then he's a pretty good forward. Not Giannis, but pretty good.....

& this is the kind of comment that no Wizards fan would ever have made about another draft pick in his 2d year. Because, forgive me, it makes absolutely no sense.

1. Jamison was a substantially better rebounder than Rui.
2. Doesn't the 3 have to actually get "good" -- not just improve, but actually get ABOVE AVERAGE IN % & NUMBER OF ATTEMPTS before we start pointing to it as a positive indicator?
3. & what does your conclusion mean? If he keeps getting better until he's a pretty good forward, why then he'll be a pretty good forward?

Thing is... he didn't get better this year. He got a bit worse.

See the facts above. Not hand-waving but actual facts. Rui posted a slight increase in his TS% from awful to less awful but still meaningfully below the average of ALL NBA 4s (not just guys drafted in the lottery or drafted in the top 10 but below the average of every single guy who played a minute at PF this year.

Kyle Kuzma seems a decent comparison....

Wow.... If Kuzma is the comparison, then Rui isn't going to be "a pretty forward," because Kyle Kuzma is not "a pretty good forward." He's a bad forward.

Rui wasn't taken #27 in the draft, like Kuzma. He was taken #9. If Kuzma is the comparison, Rui Hachimura will be a bust for a #9 pick. Fortunately, however, Rui wasn't as bad a rookie as Kuzma was. & he wasn't as bad a 2d year player as Kuzma was. Let's hope he isn't as bad as Kuzma was his 3d year.

OTOH, though this doesn't really matter long term, Rui wasn't as good as Kuzma this year either. & Kuzma wasn't even average.

[DCZards]

PIF, no response to Nate’s post? It seems to be “numbers” based like you like.

Also, any thoughts on Rui’s D last season? Defense is awfully hard to measure. But Rui’s D looked to be visibly improved most nights.

[dckingsfan]

The first things that jump out to me on Rui defensively is that his defensive rebounding was down, his steals were down and his blocked shots were down and his offensive fouls drawn were down.

He had some good games defensively and other where you just scratched your head.

If he improved it was marginally and not materially on the defensive end. He still is not a good defensive power forward. He is still not a good offensive power forward.

He also isn't going anywhere. Our best chance to improve next year is if he and Avdija improve and if Gafford can stay on the court a bit longer. It really isn't that complicated.

[DCZards]

Rui has shown solid improvement as an on ball defender, including his ability to guard 2-3 positions.

Stuff that doesn’t show up in rebounding, steals and other numbers.

[penbeast0]

The first things that jump out to me on Rui defensively is that his defensive rebounding was down, his steals were down and his blocked shots were down and his offensive fouls drawn were down.

He had some good games defensively and other where you just scratched your head.

If he improved it was marginally and not materially on the defensive end. He still is not a good defensive power forward. He is still not a good offensive power forward.

He also isn't going anywhere. Our best chance to improve next year is if he and Avdija improve and if Gafford can stay on the court a bit longer. It really isn't that complicated.

When you are the Wizards, you can't really say "rather unimpressive player X isn't going anywhere" because you need to do something to make this roster either competitive or give it a future. Right now it's the same unimpressive mixture of both goals that it's been most of the last 40 years. So, unless it's Beal, everyone should be movable if you are planning to compete.

Of our players Hachimura is the only one that's (a) young enough for someone to bite on his potential being significantly more than he's produced so far and (b) that has gotten a lot of minutes to showcase that potential. If there was someone I thought could help us, I'd move him in a heartbeat; before Bryant who had shown a lot more performance before his injury than Rui ever has, before Avjida, who has not had much of a chance to show anything but whose draft position indicates a perceived value higher than Rui has shown so far, and before Gafford who if he's what he showed last year is an ideal platoon with Bryant.

Heck, if I was offered a real likelihood of improvement, I would offer any and all of them as well. Of course, if I was another team, I wouldn't offer that much for any of them and so as the Wiz, I would keep them all, focus on defense and shooting, and pray they improve.

[payitforward]

Can anyone explain what the actual evidence is that Rui Hachimura right now is an improved player over Rui Hachimura after his rookie year? I'm not looking for words of praise -- those come easy. I am hoping for real evidence.

Rui became a better shooter from everywhere on the floor, particularly from floater range. The problem is, because of Westbrook's lack of spacing, Rui was driven further from the basket and forced to take more difficult shots. If he could have maintained his shot distribution from last season, but with his shooting percentages of this season, you would have seen a 3% improvement in his TS%, putting him in the .580 range.




His improved shooting from everywhere on the floor has allowed him to be passably efficient as an offensive player despite no longer shooting from the most favorable spots on the floor; which allows other, weaker offensive players to benefit from shooting from the most favorable spots on the floor. That's one of the reasons his on/off improved from -6.1 to -1.8.

This is great, nate.

It's great not because of the "would have could have" stuff about Westbrook, but because it reveals that what looked like a small rise in 2 pt. % from .500 to .519 represents something a good deal more positive than that.

The distance range from which we'd like Rui (& most players) to take the smallest number of shots is "16-3P" (i.e. long 2pters). &, that's also the only range where Rui's FG% actually went down this year. Yet, he took a slightly higher % of shots from that range this year as compared to last.

Suppose we compute his FG% last year & this year on all other 2-pt. attempts. I haven't done it yet, but it will only take a moment. I am certain that the year-to-year jump will be more significant than the overall jump.

Then, along the lines nate suggests, we can look at the effect of just that on his ts%. &, then, compare it to what the ts% would have been redistribute shot attempts his 2d year to the spread of his rookie year (again... leaving out those long 2's).

What this will tell us is the significance of these issues in his trajectory going forward.

[payitforward]

That was kinda abstract -- sorry, I'm about to rush off somewhere.

Overall point: what does Rui's work so far tell us about his potential going forward? Not so much overall improvement so far as what he should/could do going forward & what kind of ceiling that would give him....

[Dat2U]

Rui 'Eye Test' Hachimura.

He's more aggressive now...

This is a pretty typical claim. Only... what makes you think so?

Maybe you mean something simple, like that he scored more points this year than last year. But he didn't. He scored slightly fewer points this year than he did last year.

Did he take more shots his 2d year than his first? Is that what you mean? Only... he didn't. He shot slightly less often his 2d year than his first year.

Did he get to the line more often his 2d year than his first year? No, he got to the line slightly less often this year than last.

Did he get more offensive rebounds this year? I can imagine thinking of that as a sign of being "more aggressive." Only... he didn't in fact, his offensive boards dropped substantially. His defensive boards dropped a bit as well, btw.

Do you perhaps mean that he saw the floor better, made better passes? Well... his assists went down @27%.

Conclusion: no Rui is not "more aggressive now." Not at all.

Moreover, overall all those numbers are both pretty bad & in sum, represent a meaningful drop, decline, getting worse, from his rookie year.

Are we clear on that? Fewer points, fewer defensive boards, fewer offensive boards, fewer assists -- &, in addition, a slight rise in turnovers, a slight drop in blocked shots, & a slight drop in fouls (finally! something got better!)

He's shooting the three more, and better. ...

Rui shot the 3 extremely rarely & very poorly as a rookie. This year, Rui shot the 3 a little more -- by which I mean that every 140 possessions, Rui took 1 more 3 point shot than he did last year. Wow, huh?

IOW, Rui still shoots 3-pointers pretty rarely. In fact, this year Rui shot a 3 pointer 41.5% as often as often as average for an NBA 4. Read that again.

Last year, his 3pt. % was 28.7%. This year he went up to 32.7% & there you have the big "improvement." The thing everyone wants to point to. Look how well Rui is doing! Only one little problem: on average an NBA 4 shoots his almost 2.5 times as many 3's at 36.8%.

Still might forever be a Jamison-level rebounder, but that's fine. If the three keeps improving and he is more consistent on the defensive end, then he's a pretty good forward. Not Giannis, but pretty good.....

& this is the kind of comment that no Wizards fan would ever have made about another draft pick in his 2d year. Because, forgive me, it makes absolutely no sense.

1. Jamison was a substantially better rebounder than Rui.
2. Doesn't the 3 have to actually get "good" -- not just improve, but actually get ABOVE AVERAGE IN % & NUMBER OF ATTEMPTS before we start pointing to it as a positive indicator?
3. & what does your conclusion mean? If he keeps getting better until he's a pretty good forward, why then he'll be a pretty good forward?

Thing is... he didn't get better this year. He got a bit worse.

See the facts above. Not hand-waving but actual facts. Rui posted a slight increase in his TS% from awful to less awful but still meaningfully below the average of ALL NBA 4s (not just guys drafted in the lottery or drafted in the top 10 but below the average of every single guy who played a minute at PF this year.

Kyle Kuzma seems a decent comparison....

Wow.... If Kuzma is the comparison, then Rui isn't going to be "a pretty forward," because Kyle Kuzma is not "a pretty good forward." He's a bad forward.

Rui wasn't taken #27 in the draft, like Kuzma. He was taken #9. If Kuzma is the comparison, Rui Hachimura will be a bust for a #9 pick. Fortunately, however, Rui wasn't as bad a rookie as Kuzma was. & he wasn't as bad a 2d year player as Kuzma was. Let's hope he isn't as bad as Kuzma was his 3d year.

OTOH, though this doesn't really matter long term, Rui wasn't as good as Kuzma this year either. & Kuzma wasn't even average.

Rui's biggest improvement was his defense against wings. Also his rotations looked better. You can tell he's really trying on that end and went from defensive sieve to being fairly adequate. Offensively he shot the 3 a little better but I have to squint to see the improvements on that end. So IMO Rui got a little better but not in the way most expected.

[dckingsfan]

The first things that jump out to me on Rui defensively is that his defensive rebounding was down, his steals were down and his blocked shots were down and his offensive fouls drawn were down.

He had some good games defensively and other where you just scratched your head.

If he improved it was marginally and not materially on the defensive end. He still is not a good defensive power forward. He is still not a good offensive power forward.

He also isn't going anywhere. Our best chance to improve next year is if he and Avdija improve and if Gafford can stay on the court a bit longer. It really isn't that complicated.

When you are the Wizards, you can't really say "rather unimpressive player X isn't going anywhere" because you need to do something to make this roster either competitive or give it a future. Right now it's the same unimpressive mixture of both goals that it's been most of the last 40 years. So, unless it's Beal, everyone should be movable if you are planning to compete.

Of our players Hachimura is the only one that's (a) young enough for someone to bite on his potential being significantly more than he's produced so far and (b) that has gotten a lot of minutes to showcase that potential. If there was someone I thought could help us, I'd move him in a heartbeat; before Bryant who had shown a lot more performance before his injury than Rui ever has, before Avjida, who has not had much of a chance to show anything but whose draft position indicates a perceived value higher than Rui has shown so far, and before Gafford who if he's what he showed last year is an ideal platoon with Bryant.

Heck, if I was offered a real likelihood of improvement, I would offer any and all of them as well. Of course, if I was another team, I wouldn't offer that much for any of them and so as the Wiz, I would keep them all, focus on defense and shooting, and pray they improve.

Thank you for the considered response - and I agree.

However, in my opinion - he isn't going anywhere.

So, my fingers, toes and everything else are crossed hoping that he makes a big jump. And the best thing that could happen to Rui would be if he was moved to SF and he started to consistently hit 3s like he did in the playoffs. He can guard wings and hitting 3s would open up his game.

And I think this started with a discussion that pointed out that Rui hasn't materially improved. Rather his improvements have been marginal. I think for him to really be valuable in a trade he needs to take a material jump in some aspects of his game.

[dckingsfan]

That's one of the reasons that his on/off improved from -6.1 to -1.8.

That is the best argument thus far. And if you look at his splits it looks even better (pre -6.0 and post all-star break -0.3). But this can also be deceptive based upon who you are playing with and who is/out of the lineup. And much of the team split positive because they were winning (Beal for example -4.0 to +4.4).

Still, gives one hope. It might just happen later for Rui...

[payitforward]

Can anyone explain what the actual evidence is that Rui Hachimura right now is an improved player over Rui Hachimura after his rookie year? I'm not looking for words of praise -- those come easy. I am hoping for real evidence.

Rui became a better shooter from everywhere on the floor, particularly from floater range....

Although we all knew that Rui improved his 2 point % & 3 point %, nate went on to demonstrate that a less effective spread of shots this year made the improvement in his 2 pt. shooting seem somewhat less significant than it might really be.

So, Rui is an improved shooter, which we already knew, but he's somewhat more improved than one might otherwise think. That's fair based on nate's analysis. But... "improved shooter" does not equal "an improved player," which is the question I raised.

In fact, on the overall numbers per 40 minutes, Rui went downhill. Shooting aside, it was kind of a significant slip.

Overall, his fouls, turnover, steals & blocks were at virtually the same level as his rookie year -- not improved at all. & both his defensive & offensive rebounding & assists were down.

Now, I'm inclined to put aside his assist numbers given Russ's ball-dominance. But, I'm not buying the narrative that Westbrook somehow "stole" Rui's rebounds. Beal rebounded at just above his career rate. Lopez got more boards than he had in the last 3 seasons. Len rebounded fine. Etc.

In short, even giving more weight to his improved shooting than the raw numbers suggest, I can't see the actual evidence "that Rui Hachimura right now is an improved player over... his rookie year." In fact, just on the numbers, most of the usual roll up candidates say that he got worse:

his PER was down from last year
his Win Shares per 48 was down from last year
his WP48 was down from last year
his VORP was worse than last year

Most of those I have no idea of what they mean, so I'm not suggesting they're at all conclusive. Yet, I'm left still looking for actual evidence that Rui is a better player today than he was at this time last year.

Dat has mentioned that Rui rotates better on defense than he did as a rookie. Ok.

[dckingsfan]

A discussion on if Rui improved at all seems like a dead end conversation. The questions should be:
1) Did he materially improve
2) What did we learn about Rui
3) How does he take the next jump

1) I don't think there is a case to be made where he made a huge jump - that is a dead-end street.

2) He is a good defender on wings. Wings have trouble defending him. He has trouble with defensive rebounding and weakside help (block shots, etc.).

3) Let him defend wings and he needs to improve his 3 point shooting. If those two things happen, the discussion next year will be - who do we need to fill the PF slot (given that Gafford is our C going forward).

[DCZards]

Still need to see substantial improvement from Rui. Maybe it comes in his third season.

I doubt that he'll improve a whole lot as a rebounder, but if Rui can get that 6.1 per game up to around 7 per game I'd be alright with that.

The place that we'd all probably like to see the most improvement from Rui is as a 3pt shooter. That would be a tremendous boost to his game and to the Zards. Rui has a ways to go as a 3pt shooter...but at least he's trending in the right direction.

It's good to see that Hachimura has improved his 2 pt shooting (as reflected in Nate's post) and he has clearly become a better on ball defender. I'll settle for those improvements for now...and hope for more in the future.

[gesa2]

A discussion on if Rui improved at all seems like a dead end conversation. The questions should be:
1) Did he materially improve
2) What did we learn about Rui
3) How does he take the next jump

1) I don't think there is a case to be made where he made a huge jump - that is a dead-end street.

2) He is a good defender on wings. Wings have trouble defending him. He has trouble with defensive rebounding and weakside help (block shots, etc.).

3) Let him defend wings and he needs to improve his 3 point shooting. If those two things happen, the discussion next year will be - who do we need to fill the PF slot (given that Gafford is our C going forward).

I’ve thought for a while that Rui may end up a 3 and Avdija a playmaking 4. Works better for us defensively at least