Olshey

[Epicurus]

I thought we were talking about after the ALdridge exit., which has nothing to do with the drafting of Lillard and McCollum, etc. You have a habit of shifting sands argumentation. The additions of 15-16 were not remotely equal to the subtractions.

[d-train]

We weren't talking about Aldridge. We were talking about the terrific job Olshey has done building opportunities, getting the best from opportunities, and maintaining the advantages gained from opportunities. The loss from Aldridge's decision was not within Blazers control. Olshey could, and did, respond to the loss the best way possible.

[Epicurus]

The team after the ALdridge departure was the topic. Mon Dieu!

[Waynearchetype]

We weren't talking about Aldridge. We were talking about the terrific job Olshey has done building opportunities, getting the best from opportunities, and maintaining the advantages gained from opportunities. The loss from Aldridge's decision was not within Blazers control. Olshey could, and did, respond to the loss the best way possible.

Let's look at the last 5 years....

What opportunities has he built? Nurkic trade and no others.

When did we get the best of those opportunities? Nurkic trade and no others.

How have we maintained advantages of those opportunities? Again, Nurkic trade and no others.

Aldridges decision to leave was within the Blazers control, they could have traded him prior to expiration. We knew he had mixed feelings about staying. https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/6/27/4470712/nba-draft-trade-rumors-lamarcus-aldridge-portland-blazers

The fact of the matter is the team has been reluctant to go all in and make a splash by leveraging future assets. The largest trove of future assets we traded was for a washed up Robert Covington coming off his worst year yet, and we still paid a premium for it. We've missed out on even mid-level free agents year after year, we've hampered the team with bad contracts over and over in Crabbe, Leonard, Turner. We've traded good young players in Barton for a washed up vet who we knew was already having a bad season. We added small players to an already defensively challenged lineup.

Olshey has done a terrific job at never risking much while ensuring mediocrity and waiting out Lillards prime. He hasn't screwed us out of future draft picks, but he has screwed us out of giving Lillard a shot at the title.

[Waynearchetype]

The only team with a worse record of bringing in new free agents in the last 5 years is Orlando and Sacramento, and I'd feel comfortable saying we've tied them and not done better. Portland getting beat by much smaller, less attractive markets in New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Utah, Indiana, San Antonio, Cleveland. That isn't something you can explain away by saying "Portland isn't an attractive destination". That is Olshey being bad at his job.

[Malapropism]

What opportunities has he built? Nurkic trade and no others.

When did we get the best of those opportunities? Nurkic trade and no others.

How have we maintained advantages of those opportunities? Again, Nurkic trade and no others.

Fun fact, we almost traded Plumlee for Jahlil Okafor before the Nuggets added a 1st to the deal.

[Waynearchetype]

Let's go over draft picks from the last 5 years.

Good picks( Starters, good quality for draft position):
(none)

Okay picks(Provided wins or were good enough to exchange for a better player):
Gary Trent Jr

Mediocre picks (Didn't lose us games, mostly bench players, okay value for draft position):
Jake Layman
Nassir Little (jury still out)
Pat Connaughton

Bad picks (bad players or bad value for draft position):
Anfernee Simons
Zach Collins
Caleb Swanigan

[Waynearchetype]

Blazers trades last 5 years

Good (produced a good amount of wins, long term solutions):
Nurkic trade - provided a substantial number of wins, played with the team multiple seasons.


Mediocre (produced some wins in at least 1 season):
Powell trade- little wiggle room and could drop depending on whether they resign him and he plays his natural position or not. If they resign him to play SF... bad trade.
Robert Covington - Traded the same package for him as Houston did the year prior despite him having his worst season yet with Houston, this was followed by his next worst season with us.
Hassan Whiteside- Didn't quite have the impact they hoped but didn't cost a lot either.
Rodney Hood- Didn't cost a lot, produced a fair number of wins.


Bad (Overpaid, had little to no impact, or fixing other mistake):
Hezonja- Fixing a mistake does not get a passing grade.
Trevor Ariza- Small impact, not long term player, cost was 2 SRPs. As mentioned below this one is probably between mediocre and bad.
Kent Bazemore for Evan Turner- Zero impact
Caleb/Skal- Zero impact
Allen Crabbe- Fixing other mistake.
Moving up draft for Zach- Hard to grade draft picks since even with analysis, but if you put the names of players who went 11-30 on a board and threw a dart at it, you likely would have gotten a better player.

[Waynearchetype]

Olsheys last 5 years grades based on my last 3 posts.

Free Agents: F
Nothing game changing incoming, riddled with overpays, smaller markets were more successful.


Draft: D
Nothing game changing, few value picks, some big misses.


Trades: B
Nurkic trade stands out but there is definitely a feeling of bargain bin shopping. Team seems opposed to any splashy big move.

[JasonStern]

You're all over with your assessments, Wayne. For example, trading away Hezonja without giving up picks/cash was a great trade - arguably Olshey's best move as a GM. Signing him to a two year deal in the first place was the big eff up.

[Waynearchetype]

You're all over with your assessments, Wayne. For example, trading away Hezonja without giving up picks/cash was a great trade - arguably Olshey's best move as a GM. Signing him to a two year deal in the first place was the big eff up.

Hah, "Fixing other mistakes" was listed as the F category. No points for make up exams.

[BlazersBroncos]

Ariza for Kent was a good trade. Saying it wasnt is just using the Trevor decision to opt out of the bubble against the move in general, which clearly isnt fair to NO.

And Kent for Turner to being with clearly was a good trade.

Your mad, I get it, I want him gone too. But these assessments are pretty scatterbrained.

[Waynearchetype]

Ariza for Kent was a good trade. Saying it wasnt is just using the Trevor decision to opt out of the bubble against the move in general, which clearly isnt fair to NO.

And Kent for Turner to being with clearly was a good trade.

Your mad, I get it, I want him gone too. But these assessments are pretty scatterbrained.

I definitely could have formatted my thoughts a bit better but I don't think the assessments are off. Bazemore/Turner wasn't a good trade, just shuffling disappointing players for both teams. Ariza played better than either, but at 34 years old he wasn't coming back next season, and it cost 2 second round picks. We gained maybe 1 or 2 wins max. I'd settle and say the Ariza trade is mediocre instead of bad, but only if pressed.

edit: Formatted a little now that i'm not on my phone...

[DusterBuster]

Ariza for Kent was a good trade. Saying it wasnt is just using the Trevor decision to opt out of the bubble against the move in general, which clearly isnt fair to NO.

And Kent for Turner to being with clearly was a good trade.

Your mad, I get it, I want him gone too. But these assessments are pretty scatterbrained.

I definitely could have formatted my thoughts a bit better but I don't think the assessments are off. Bazemore/Turner wasn't a good trade, just shuffling disappointing players for both teams. Ariza played better than either, but at 34 years old he wasn't coming back next season, and it cost 2 second round picks. We gained maybe 1 or 2 wins max. I'd settle and say the Ariza trade is mediocre instead of bad, but only if pressed.

Yeah, I'd agree that the Baze / Turner trade was a best a wash. Two kinda crappy players on bad contracts and that didn't change with a change of scenery for either guy. That's a textbook definition "shuffling the deck" move if there ever was one.

Ariza I think was a pretty decent deal (I - as always - could care less about 2nd round picks), he showed that he would have been a really good pickup once things were rolling, but then COVID blew everything to hell and he opted out of Orlando... but none of that I can blame on Olshey. Not to say it was an amazing deal, but wasn't bad. Somewhere in the decentish to mediocre range is fair.

I definitely think a lot of fans don't look at Olshey's moves unbiasedly. His moves seem to be graded by everyone based on how they feel about Olshey personally. The fans think his moves are decent - great, the haters think his moves are generally quite terrible, then there's people in the middle like me who accept he's had some hits and misses... but is overall a decent GM (certainly could be worse), but I also believe it's more than time for a new vision in the front office, so I side with the camp that would like to see him move on and someone else get a chance here.

[elias808]

Olsheys last 5 years grades based on my last 3 posts.

Free Agents: F
Nothing game changing incoming, riddled with overpays, smaller markets were more successful.


Draft: D
Nothing game changing, few value picks, some big misses.


Trades: B
Nurkic trade stands out but there is definitely a feeling of bargain bin shopping. Team seems opposed to any splashy big move.

Absolutely agree with your assessment. The three things that always chapped my ass about Olshay is 1; Unwillingness to trade guys he drafted (as I assume it's a sign of weakness/admitting he was wrong. 2; a total disregard for the value a 2nd round picks holds. 3; Overpaying for mediocre free agents.

The sum of those three things is damn near effectively what his job is...

[JasonStern]

There's definitely some revisionist history going on.

Turner for Bazemore with no sweetener was viewed as a win for Portland. Given Turner's inability to shoot from anywhere, he was a terrible fit in Stotts' offense (and yet Olshey made a similar mistake signing DJJ). Despite having shooters around him and floor spacing, Bazemore had his least efficient shooting season since his rookie season. That's not something you can easily predict. On paper, that trade should have worked out for Portland.

Ariza was a great mid-season move to correct that. But then you still have to put the blame on Olshey for giving Turner the bad contract in the first place that necessitated making multiple trades to try to correct.

Parlaying Ariza's partially guaranteed contract and two 1sts into Covington was another move that the Blazers should have won on paper. People were proposing "CJ for Covington" trades years ago, and yet when we obtained Covington for scraps, we now view that as bad? While his game has flaws, Covington provided more value than most fans want to give him credit for. And he's easily worth the $12M/season he's owed. You can argue that, in HINDSIGHT, two 1sts was too steep of a price to pay. But they were late 1sts and the Blazers apparently at least struck out on an Aaron Gordon trade before making the move for Covington.

[Waynearchetype]

There's definitely some revisionist history going on.

Turner for Bazemore with no sweetener was viewed as a win for Portland. Given Turner's inability to shoot from anywhere, he was a terrible fit in Stotts' offense (and yet Olshey made a similar mistake signing DJJ). Despite having shooters around him and floor spacing, Bazemore had his least efficient shooting season since his rookie season. That's not something you can easily predict. On paper, that trade should have worked out for Portland.

Ariza was a great mid-season move to correct that. But then you still have to put the blame on Olshey for giving Turner the bad contract in the first place that necessitated making multiple trades to try to correct.

Parlaying Ariza's partially guaranteed contract and two 1sts into Covington was another move that the Blazers should have won on paper. People were proposing "CJ for Covington" trades years ago, and yet when we obtained Covington for scraps, we now view that as bad? While his game has flaws, Covington provided more value than most fans want to give him credit for. And he's easily worth the $12M/season he's owed. You can argue that, in HINDSIGHT, two 1sts was too steep of a price to pay. But they were late 1sts and the Blazers apparently at least struck out on an Aaron Gordon trade before making the move for Covington.

I don't buy that everyone thought cj for Covington was a good idea, but then again everyone has crazy trade ideas at some point. You did make the same defense in the Covington trade announcement thread tho, which is odd because you're calling it revisionist now. Most people in the announcement thread seemed to agree it was a good player but an overpay, which tracks with what folks are still saying.

[JasonStern]

There's definitely some revisionist history going on.

Turner for Bazemore with no sweetener was viewed as a win for Portland. Given Turner's inability to shoot from anywhere, he was a terrible fit in Stotts' offense (and yet Olshey made a similar mistake signing DJJ). Despite having shooters around him and floor spacing, Bazemore had his least efficient shooting season since his rookie season. That's not something you can easily predict. On paper, that trade should have worked out for Portland.

Ariza was a great mid-season move to correct that. But then you still have to put the blame on Olshey for giving Turner the bad contract in the first place that necessitated making multiple trades to try to correct.

Parlaying Ariza's partially guaranteed contract and two 1sts into Covington was another move that the Blazers should have won on paper. People were proposing "CJ for Covington" trades years ago, and yet when we obtained Covington for scraps, we now view that as bad? While his game has flaws, Covington provided more value than most fans want to give him credit for. And he's easily worth the $12M/season he's owed. You can argue that, in HINDSIGHT, two 1sts was too steep of a price to pay. But they were late 1sts and the Blazers apparently at least struck out on an Aaron Gordon trade before making the move for Covington.

I don't buy that everyone thought cj for Covington was a good idea, but then again everyone has crazy trade ideas at some point. You did make the same defense in the Covington trade announcement thread tho, which is odd because you're calling it revisionist now. Most people in the announcement thread seemed to agree it was a good player but an overpay, which tracks with what folks are still saying.

Pretty big gap in logic between:

People were proposing "CJ for Covington" trades years ago

..and:

I don't buy that everyone thought cj for Covington was a good idea

The 76ers ended up using Covington as the main piece in a Jimmy Butler trade, so let's not pretend like ~2018 Robert Covington didn't have value.

Of course, there was also this idea back then that if we kept the Dame/CJ core together, we'd be seeing perennial first round playoff exits.

[Norm2953]

Let's see what gets tried and done this off season for the previous moves are all in the past and
water under the bridge.

#1 task is to be prepared to play large stretches of 2021-22 with either Nurk/Collins or both players
once again unable to play and sitting in street clothes. Likely that player that would play a role that
Saric plays for the Suns which is a big body that can soak up minutes for the Harry Giles of the world
who have their own injury concerns are not the answer. A good solid PF type should not be hard to find.

Team needs to add that extra ball handler to run the offense so as to allow Dame/CJ to concentrate
on scoring. It would help if the team added some team speed as to get some easier transition baskets
and some length to be able to match up defensively.

I do think the team needs better cap management for the team is not a playoff contender despite
Dame and sooner or later will have to make some moves as to get some flexibility to be able to
change the roster for they have no cap space and no draft picks for this season. Difficult to have
a coherent plan of action without a concrete idea of who the new coach will be and who that coach
names to be their assistant coaches.

[Waynearchetype]

The 76ers ended up using Covington as the main piece in a Jimmy Butler trade, so let's not pretend like ~2018 Robert Covington didn't have value.

Of course, there was also this idea back then that if we kept the Dame/CJ core together, we'd be seeing perennial first round playoff exits.

I don't want to get super into the weeds on this but Saric had a ton of value at the time and Jimmy Butler was refusing to show up to camp. Another team getting bent over a barrel isn't exactly reflective of value. No one is claiming the pieces traded for Harden are great because they were traded for Harden, that's not how you establish value.

Again, I did not say it was a bad trade, just an overpay. You said that was revisionist when our very thread in this forum seemed to be full of a good number of people who, at the time, agreed. I even acknowledged that working trades is an above average trait of Olshey with a B, but that he had a tendency to shy away from big deals.