Your First 5 2021 NBA Draft Tiers

[NYG]

Look at what you consider the first five tier drop-offs in the draft, who is in each tier for you?

Keep in mind, this is not your personal rankings from your scouting, this is the likelihood of where they get drafted in real life on draft night.

[NYG]

Mine...

1
Cade Cunningham

-I think Cade has established himself as the no matter what first overall guy so unless a team gets cute, he's #1.

2
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs

-Any of these 3 guys could go second overall based on which team has the pick post-lotto by the time draft night rolls around and I would not be shocked.

3
Jonathan Kuminga

-I put Kuminga on his own here because I don't think he's up there with any of the tier 2 guys, but there is still a gap between him and everyone after him. He's top 5, just 5th of the 5 pretty much across the board.

4
Scottie Barnes
Keon Johnson
Davion Mitchell

-This depends on who has the 6th overall pick, but any of these 3 could go 6th IMO. Mitchell is for a more win now ready team, Barnes is for a team that is younger and Keon is for anyone that needs scoring.

5
Franz Wagner
Corey Kispert
Josh Giddey
Alperen Sengun
Moses Moody
Usman Garuba
Jalen Johnson

-Anyone before this are better than these guys, but there is another drop-off after this that is noticeable. You could possibly get Kai Jones and/or Isaiah Jackson in here and I would be okay with it, but I think in a vacuum all of these guys are even ahead of them.

[Stillwater]

Mobley and Green have a case for going 1 for any lottery team so I disagree about cade safely at 1
This draft is all over the place right now, and most of your tiers imo are going to change for the consensus
anyway as the pre draft process kicks into high gear after Tuesdays drawing.

[SNPA]

Someone would have to explain Keon Johnson to me. He is a great athlete. Got it. But how is he this high? If the Kings keep their pick I hope he goes 6-8 so I’m not really complaining.

[Charm]

Someone would have to explain Keon Johnson to me. He is a great athlete. Got it. But how is he this high? If the Kings keep their pick I hope he goes 6-8 so I’m not really complaining.

He's like Barnes...if Barnes was much shorter and lost his only NBA-level offensive skill. It's baffling to me that Barnes and Keon are treated almost interchangeably in most mocks.

[clyde21]

first 5 tiers? might as well ask for the entire big boards lol

[EvanZ]

I only have 5 tiers.

[Stillwater]

I have plenty of tears over all of this tier talk damnyouall

[Ruzious]

Look at what you consider the first five tier drop-offs in the draft, who is in each tier for you?

Keep in mind, this is not your personal rankings from your scouting, this is the likelihood of where they get drafted in real life on draft night.

I think it'd be much easier to do each poster's personal tiers - rather than guessing how each team thinks. But knowing how the draft lotto turns out tomorrow should help. This might be the most interesting lotto yet because the weighting has changed. Speaking of which, the waiting is the hardest part.

[Lukeem]

cade

suggs, green, mobley

Barnes, Moody, Mitchell, Williams, Kuminga

Garuba, Kisspert, Wagner, Sengun, Giddey, K Johnson, J Johnson, Jones, Bouknight

Dosunmu, Springer, Thomas, Bassey, Prkacin, Todd......... (some of my favourites but tonnes more at this level)

[NYPiston]

Mobley and Green have a case for going 1 for any lottery team so I disagree about cade safely at 1
This draft is all over the place right now, and most of your tiers imo are going to change for the consensus
anyway as the pre draft process kicks into high gear after Tuesdays drawing.

Actually, I think this draft is predictable at the top in regards to the top 4. I don't remember too many drafts that had a very clear top 4 then a 5 in his own tier, then everybody else. It's all over the place after 5 but the top 5 (4 especially) seem cemented.

I'd say these are the tiers...

Tier 1
Cunningham

I'd be shocked if the #1 pick was anybody but him. Highest floor by a mile with potentially the highest ceiling to go along with playing a premium position at a premium size as a big point forward essentially. Him learning to shoot the three this season, which was one of his biggest question marks coming out of high school, cemented his #1 status IMO.

Tier 2
Mobley
Green
Suggs

These three are a toss up depending on how these guys perform at the combine, team need etc.

Tier 3
Kuminga

More question marks than the top 4 but a higher ceiling than anybody outside of the top 4 and arguably a higher ceiling than anybody in this draft. I wouldn't be completely shocked if a top 4 team takes him because of his physical stature and upside.

Tier 4

You can argue about 9-10 guys for this tier, seriously. It seems like Barnes might be separating himself a bit and creating his own tier, teams seem to love guys like this with his size, playmaking ability, defensive versatility and by all accounts, one of the highest character kids in the draft. I could potentially see a team taking him at 5 because of his uniqueness.
Guys like Keon Johnson, Mitchell, Jalen Johnson because of his high upside, Moody, Bouknight, Springer, Wagner could all go here. Perhaps a few more.
I don't know, it's a giant cluster of guys after 5 that you can argue for the 4th tier. The proceedings leading up to the draft will create some separation here and there. How that plays out, I have no idea.

[Hal14]

cade

suggs, green, mobley

Barnes, Moody, Mitchell, Williams, Kuminga

Garuba, Kisspert, Wagner, Sengun, Giddey, K Johnson, J Johnson, Jones, Bouknight

Dosunmu, Springer, Thomas, Bassey, Prkacin, Todd......... (some of my favourites but tonnes more at this level)

The name that jumps out there is Williams - interesting, I think this is the first I'm seeing where someone lists Ziaire as a top 9 prospect in this class. What do you see in him? I am weary of the poor shooting numbers he put up and wiry thin 6'8", 185 lbs frame..

[Lukeem]

cade

suggs, green, mobley

Barnes, Moody, Mitchell, Williams, Kuminga

Garuba, Kisspert, Wagner, Sengun, Giddey, K Johnson, J Johnson, Jones, Bouknight

Dosunmu, Springer, Thomas, Bassey, Prkacin, Todd......... (some of my favourites but tonnes more at this level)

The name that jumps out there is Williams - interesting, I think this is the first I'm seeing where someone lists Ziaire as a top 9 prospect in this class. What do you see in him? I am weary of the poor shooting numbers he put up and wiry thin 6'8", 185 lbs frame..

19 year old being wirey doesn’t concern me at all

6’8 close to 7’ wingspan. Quick. Smooth. I believe in the shot coming around when he’s getting nba reps and coaching

easily projects as a strong defender with his effort and intelligence. So should be able to easily carve out a role with upside for a lot more if the shot keeps developing.


Scores impressively at two levels right now it’s hard to imagine with his touch, form and work ethic that won’t naturally stretch out.

Three level scorers that work hard on defence with length like that are great picks more often than not

[God Squad]

cade

suggs, green, mobley

Barnes, Moody, Mitchell, Williams, Kuminga

Garuba, Kisspert, Wagner, Sengun, Giddey, K Johnson, J Johnson, Jones, Bouknight

Dosunmu, Springer, Thomas, Bassey, Prkacin, Todd......... (some of my favourites but tonnes more at this level)

The name that jumps out there is Williams - interesting, I think this is the first I'm seeing where someone lists Ziaire as a top 9 prospect in this class. What do you see in him? I am weary of the poor shooting numbers he put up and wiry thin 6'8", 185 lbs frame..

19 year old being wirey doesn’t concern me at all

6’8 close to 7’ wingspan. Quick. Smooth. I believe in the shot coming around when he’s getting nba reps and coaching

easily projects as a strong defender with his effort and intelligence. So should be able to easily carve out a role with upside for a lot more if the shot keeps developing.


Scores impressively at two levels right now it’s hard to imagine with his touch, form and work ethic that won’t naturally stretch out.

Three level scorers that work hard on defence with length like that are great picks more often than not

Or he's Cam Reddish 2.0

[Hal14]

The name that jumps out there is Williams - interesting, I think this is the first I'm seeing where someone lists Ziaire as a top 9 prospect in this class. What do you see in him? I am weary of the poor shooting numbers he put up and wiry thin 6'8", 185 lbs frame..

19 year old being wirey doesn’t concern me at all

6’8 close to 7’ wingspan. Quick. Smooth. I believe in the shot coming around when he’s getting nba reps and coaching

easily projects as a strong defender with his effort and intelligence. So should be able to easily carve out a role with upside for a lot more if the shot keeps developing.


Scores impressively at two levels right now it’s hard to imagine with his touch, form and work ethic that won’t naturally stretch out.

Three level scorers that work hard on defence with length like that are great picks more often than not

Or he's Cam Reddish 2.0

Reddish has 33 lbs. on Ziaire and Cam still can't stay healthy..

[BostonCouchGM]

very early lottery Big Board though I doubt it changes much in the lottery.

9.5 plus=Hall of Fame/Potential face of the league
9=All-NBA
8.5=All-star
7.5=Starter

Green-9.5
Cade-9.3
Mobley-9.1
Kuminga-9
Mitchell-9
Keon Johnson-9
Suggs-8.8
Barnes-8.5
Bouknight-8.5
Hyland-8.5
Jalen Johnson-8.4
Williams-8.4
Kispert-8.3
Sims-8.0

[eminence]

First 3 tiers here now, will come back to add in a 4th, probably won't bother with a 5th (I think by tier 5 you're into guys who are likely peaking at the level of decent bench players, rarely happens on the teams that draft them).

Tier 1 (MVP upside)-
Cade Cunningham: Big wing with a decent handle/passing vision, elite looking shooter. Doesn't have elite athleticism.

Tier 2 (All-NBA hopefuls)-
Evan Mobley: One of the more balanced big man prospects in awhile. No real weaknesses. Solid skill, good feel, good measurables. Shot still needs some work to be a real part of his game.

Tier 3 (Stars) -
Scottie Barnes: Shot needs work, that's clear. Everything else is at A level for a prospect. Great size to play anywhere, great feel, handle, passing. Love him.
Jalen Green: Only guy beside Cade who could really be a #1 option imo. Good size, very quick on-court. Shot doesn't look great but goes in. Can get off a shot in just about any situation.

Tier 4 (Starters)-
Sengun
Suggs
Kuminga
Garuba
Dosunmu
Murphy

IDK Tier - Giddey, just haven't seen him.

[CptCrunch]

I'll give you my top 8 players. These are in terms of realistic average-case outcome.

Tier 1 - Superstar
None

Tier 2 - All-star
Mobley
Green

Tier 3 - High end starter
Cade - People are misreading this kid. His shooting is nice, but his passing sloppy and vision overrated. He isn't good enough to play point in the league, as a result he is an oversized two-guard with handles to bring the ball up the court. He is a minus athlete for his position at any of the 3 defensive positions and might turn out to be a defensive liability.
Jalen Johnson
Barnes

Tier 4 - Good starter
Suggs
Kuminga
Garuba

Tier 5 - everyone else. Davion Mitchell is not a first round pick material.

[gswhoops]

1 - Cade
2 - Mobley, Green, Suggs
3 - Kuminga, Barnes
4 - Mitchell, K. Johnson, J. Johnson, Wagner
5 - Moody, Kispert, Sengun, Bouknight, Williams, Giddey

[gswhoops]

cade

suggs, green, mobley

Barnes, Moody, Mitchell, Williams, Kuminga

Garuba, Kisspert, Wagner, Sengun, Giddey, K Johnson, J Johnson, Jones, Bouknight

Dosunmu, Springer, Thomas, Bassey, Prkacin, Todd......... (some of my favourites but tonnes more at this level)

The name that jumps out there is Williams - interesting, I think this is the first I'm seeing where someone lists Ziaire as a top 9 prospect in this class. What do you see in him? I am weary of the poor shooting numbers he put up and wiry thin 6'8", 185 lbs frame..

19 year old being wirey doesn’t concern me at all

6’8 close to 7’ wingspan. Quick. Smooth. I believe in the shot coming around when he’s getting nba reps and coaching

easily projects as a strong defender with his effort and intelligence. So should be able to easily carve out a role with upside for a lot more if the shot keeps developing.


Scores impressively at two levels right now it’s hard to imagine with his touch, form and work ethic that won’t naturally stretch out.

Three level scorers that work hard on defence with length like that are great picks more often than not

I’m with you on Ziaire. I think he sneaks into the back half of the lotto with OKC at 16 being his floor.