2021 NBA Draft Thread

[bondom34]

Going to dig a little more on Barnes, but I've liked any of Moody/Wagner/Bouknight as well before this.

[Old Man Game]

My gosh what happened to the draft board here at real gm? It's a wasteland.

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[thor19]

Kuminga is wcs in my book. I'm hoping it's barnes, but expecting JK.

If we ended up outside the top 5 I was talking myself into Barnes after seeing his sit down with Mike Schmitz the other day. Really impressive physical tools and nose for defense. He just seems really young/immature but that's not a deal breaker.

I think it’s extremely unlikely the top five guys become the five best players. Seems reasonable that something like Bouknight, Barnes, Sengun or Johnson becomes really good.

I think we should not put all our eggs in one basket , try to get two of those guys if we cant get in the 2-4 picks , also which johnson? Keon or Jalen?

[Dn4sty]

Would you give back all the Houston picks if it would within reason lead to the number 2 pick
In the draft?

[jambalaya]

No. Absolutely not for me.

I also absolutely don't want Keon Johnson and not Jalen Johnson at 6. Or probably at 12. 18? Maybe if he is still waiting.

[RunOKC]

Would you trade with magic 5-8 for the 6-16-18 ?

We aren't getting 5 and 8 for that imo. 8 for 16+18 is probably more likely, maybe add a 2nd rounder.

[RunOKC]

Would you give back all the Houston picks if it would within reason lead to the number 2 pick
In the draft?

You're basically trading 3 mid first round/late lotto pick+swaps (assuming Houston would be a bit better adding the 2nd pick to the team), some of which have protections, for the 2nd pick in the draft. Seems fair for the Thunder if you believe in someone at 2.

[ThunderBorn]

Anyone else surprised we didn’t have sga at the lottery? I thought going into it he would be our representative. Is it a sign we may not be as committed to him as we all thought? Am I just being paranoid?

[Dadouv47]

*whispers*

Wondering if they trade SGA now.

Saying that, its whatever, the odds were I think highest for the 6th pick.

Not sure Detroit would make it since they are so early in their rebuild (value wise it's still great so maybe yes)

I have no idea on what to do here. I hate most players in the 6-10 range...

[Dadouv47]

I wonder what the Raptors want to do from here but it's gonna be tough to move up. We are also in a bad spot because the Magic can offer 5-8

Remote chance to trade with Cavs/Houston but then you are all in on one player.

[Dadouv47]

What's worth the 7th pick here? Gs may want to trade their pick for a star...maybe a 3 team deal is possible but I'm not sure if it's worth spending A LOT of future picks to get 6/7/16.

[ThunderBolt]

My gosh what happened to the draft board here at real gm? It's a wasteland.

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There are a few good posters but it’s mostly a handful of people trying to inflate their own ego.

[ThunderBolt]

If we ended up outside the top 5 I was talking myself into Barnes after seeing his sit down with Mike Schmitz the other day. Really impressive physical tools and nose for defense. He just seems really young/immature but that's not a deal breaker.

I think it’s extremely unlikely the top five guys become the five best players. Seems reasonable that something like Bouknight, Barnes, Sengun or Johnson becomes really good.

I think we should not put all our eggs in one basket , try to get two of those guys if we cant get in the 2-4 picks , also which johnson? Keon or Jalen?

Getting a second pick is that is top five in this draft probably involves moving shai.

[ThunderBolt]

What's worth the 7th pick here? Gs may want to trade their pick for a star...maybe a 3 team deal is possible but I'm not sure if it's worth spending A LOT of future picks to get 6/7/16.

I don’t see how a three team deal works that involve another team getting a star and us getting an asset. If a team had a star to trade for the warriors, why wouldn’t they want their pick as opposed to a handful of ours that aren’t as good?

Same thing with trying to trade for Simmons. Even if we had a top five pick this year and offered it as the center piece of a Simmons deal, that’s not what Philly wants.

[Dadouv47]

What are the odds Kuminga falls at 6?
If somehow we can get kuminga and Sengun without spending significant assets, it won’t be that bad.

Only case I move Shai is for Cade (and we should keep pick n6). Houston should be willing to trade for him as well because they don’t want a slow rebuild.

[Dadouv47]

I just want to Presti to be agressive, whether is on spending assets to move up or to go back from step 1.
SGA timeline is a problem for us so we can’t count on lottery luck for years and we have enough picks to avoid it.

[ThunderBolt]

What are the odds Kuminga falls at 6?
If somehow we can get kuminga and Sengun without spending significant assets, it won’t be that bad.

Only case I move Shai is for Cade (and we should keep pick n6). Houston should be willing to trade for him as well because they don’t want a slow rebuild.

I think Kuminga falling or us trading to get him at five is very possible. We just don’t know how other teams feel about him. Maybe the raptors love him at four and Suggs falls to fifth. Someone will rise and someone will fall. However if we start hearing bad things about how Kuminga looks and he’s there tr five, is he the guy we want?

Trading Shai for the rockets pick at 2 if Cade is there isn’t something I want to do but it kind of makes sense. As good as Cade might be he won’t win as many games for us as shai will so there is also value in trying to position ourselves for another disappointment next year in the draft. I said a while back that I wouldn’t be shocked to see Troy Weaver like someone like green over Cade. Something will go as unexpected.

[ThunderBolt]

Ok, let the rationalization begin. Hollinger didn’t have the typical top five so here are some players we can dream about being better than they likely will. FYI, he had Kuminga at 8. Fwiw, Chad Ford is also very high on Barnes.

If Bouknight falls this far I would be for pairing 16,18 and whatever else to move up and get him alongside whoever we take at six.

Also I heard Chad Ford mention the reason Isaiah Jackson didn’t show up at the combine was due to a promise that was possibly from okc.

Spoiler:

3. Scottie Barnes, SF, Florida State, Freshman

I’m really surprised Barnes isn’t getting more buzz. He could easily end up as the best player in this draft and has a case for being the top pick.

Again, the search for big wings comes first at the NBA level, and everything comes later — and the playoffs are showing why. Barnes has weaknesses, and we’ll get to them in a minute, but there is early Spurs-era Kawhi Leonard upside here as well.

For starters, for a player who is supposed to be terrible at offense, Barnes’s offensive numbers are pretty darned good. He came off the bench for a relatively slow-paced team and that muted his counting stats, but Barnes averaged 23.8 points per 100 possessions — similar to the rate of most other first-round hopefuls — and shot 56.1 percent inside the arc. Both numbers increased in ACC play when the Seminoles played their most difficult competition.

Barnes showed an ability to get all the way to the cup under his own steam, something he should be able to do much more in the open floor that the NBA offers. Even against defenders that lay off him, Barnes chews up space with huge strides and, at 6-foot-9, can finish over any guard, which allowed him to generate rim attempts despite lacking explosiveness.

Despite his huge size, Barnes loves to play defense and often checked opposing point guards. I don’t mean switches, either; this was his primary assignment. With his long arms and relentless motor, he frequently picked the dribble of ballhandlers on the perimeter. He offers the kind of switchable “checkmate” defensive answer that every team craves, possessing the size to check interior players but also the quickness and hands to switch onto any perimeter threat. All the background on him is fantastic, too.

Barnes has warts, particularly in his shooting and his lack of off-the-dribble turbo gear, and that could put a cap on his offensive upside. He doesn’t rebound well for his size and was outplayed by Michigan’s Franz Wagner (see below) in an NCAA tournament game. His downside looms if the shooting doesn’t make him playable at the end of games.

That said, I remain amazed he isn’t getting more buzz. For comparison, Patrick Williams came off the bench for Florida State a year earlier and ended up as the fourth pick in the draft, and Barnes’ tools and production dwarf Williams’. As the draft’s No. 2 on-the-ball prospect, he compares favorably to Cunningham on defense and distribution but pales next to him as a shooter.

As ever, shooting is the swing skill, and it’s why I rate Cunningham higher. Barnes’ floor is just much lower because of the shooting question. Nonetheless, I happen to think Barnes is so skilled in other respects that he’s still a useful player even if he doesn’t shoot — think a jumbo, rim-threatening version of Bruce Brown. And if he shoots even halfway decently, he has a pretty good runway to being an NBA All-Star.

4. Alperen Sengun, PF/C, Besiktas

As I noted a few months ago, Sengun is the pearl of a strong international class, and he is still flying somewhat under the radar despite winning the MVP of the Turkish League. That league is probably the second-best in Europe right now after Spain’s, and the history says that when a teenager — Sengun turns 19 in July — crushes a good overseas league like that, the fail rate is basically nil.

There are legitimate concerns about Sengun defensively, that he might be the type of guy who gets run off the floor in a playoff series. Overall, I would profile him as similar to Kevin Love — more of a “4.5” than a true five and somebody whose offense will need to make up for non-elite rim protection and mobility. Nonetheless, his offensive skill set is crazy good for a player his age. He has ball skills, passing ability, a good shooting stroke that projects to 3-point range and a dizzying array of spins, pivots and finishes on the low block.

I’ll be surprised if he isn’t able to rack up double-doubles relatively early in his career; it’s the defensive question in the modern game that keeps him out of my top three, and even then I still wonder if I have him too low. A lot of not-very-athletic bigs with average tools but advanced feel have ended up being far better defenders than initially projected — Marc Gasol obviously comes to mind for me — and Sengun could be another example. I wouldn’t just write him off at this end of the floor.

7. Franz Wagner, SF, Michigan, Sophomore

The younger brother of Orlando center Moritz Wagner, Franz is a very different kind of player: He’s a huge wing with unusually nimble feet for his size, capable of checking guards on the perimeter and busting out in passing lanes for steals. Wagner stands 6-foot-9 but had one of the better steal rates in this draft class; he’s the classic switchable defender teams covet.

Offensively, he projects more as a role player than a star. Wagner can shoot but has a low release point on his shot and hasn’t shown the footwork or off-the-dribble sizzle to be a high-frequency bomber. He’s good in transition and can attack in straight lines in the half court, where his size and stride length give him an advantage even on basic dribble moves. He’s also a good passer with a strong feel for the game, and he rarely screws up, resulting in a better than 2:1 assist-to-turnover rate.

The other thing Wagner has going for him is his age. Although listed as a sophomore, he is actually younger than several of the freshman in this draft class, including Barnes, Mobley and Suggs. He doesn’t scream outrageous upside, but the youth, production and positional scarcity all point to Wagner as an underrated player in this draft.

9. Jalen Johnson, PF, Duke, Freshman

There are all kinds of questions about Johnson right now, and teams are digging in and doing their homework about how much is genuinely concerning. There are also some basketball concerns; he is not a great shooter, and as a driver and finisher, he was much more effective operating in transition than in the half court.

But there is a pretty sharp talent cliff at this point in the draft, and Johnson comes just before the ledge. Whatever the other concerns, it’s inarguable he’s shown the talent to be a starting power forward in the NBA. Watching him reminds me a bit of a player in Memphis, James Johnson; like his namesake, this Johnson can play as a big while operating as an on-ball creator on offense, but he can also be plagued by wildness and inconsistent shooting.

Johnson put up video-game stats in his limited time at Duke — 30.4 points, 16.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per 100 possessions, with a 25.1 PER. He had 3.1 steals and 3.3 blocks per 100, with the steal rate, in particular, being pretty insane for a 6-foot-9 power forward. He also made plenty of mistakes, possessing the highest turnover rate of any prospect in this draft. My research, though, indicates that otherwise productive prospects with insane turnover rates aren’t notably worse off in the pros.

The eye test is maybe not quite as bullish. Offensively, he has a pretty good first step and ball skills for his size. However, he struggles to adjust the plan when his initial path is cut off. Defensively, he can be a major disruptor as a secondary defender off the ball, but he can be a bit upright and tight-hipped on it.

I get the overall concerns, and I don’t want to minimize them. But there is massively more upside here than with any other player remaining on the board. Yes, it feels high for a risk-reward pick like this, except the middle of this draft isn’t strong. The ninth overall pick also bombs a lot more often than people realize (we recently had Dennis Smith Jr. and Kevin Knox go ninth in consecutive years, for instance), so this is where the equation on Johnson starts turning favorable. It’s possible he bombs, but this is as low as I can put him.

10. Josh Giddey, SF, Adelaide

Similar to Kuminga, Giddey is 6-foot-8 with perimeter skills. Unlike Kuminga, he only exists in two dimensions. Yes, Giddey needs to pack on a bit of muscle, but his play in a physical professional league in Australia shows that he can be an impact player without looking like Hercules.

Again, big wings who can dribble and pass are the gold every scout seeks, which gives Giddey a solid boost up the list here. His upside scenarios are reminiscent of Toni Kukoc or Joe Ingles with a right hand. The reason he doesn’t go any higher, however, has to do with some of the limitations that could prove fail points in this development.

For starters, there is his shot. Giddey shot 29.3 percent from 3 and 69.1 percent from the line this season, and while he relied some on self-created 3s, the eye test backs up the numbers in this case. He shoots an awkward, elbow-out jumper flicked off his forehead, and he’s going to need that shot to open up the rest of his game. Giddey doesn’t have the burst to get to the cup on his own steam consistently and, for that reason, was an underwhelming scorer Down Under (10.8 points per game, exactly 50 percent on 2s).

His ability to guard on the perimeter is also a question, especially given his thin frame and limited vertical. Giddey wasn’t afraid to stick his nose in and rebound, however, with a 12.8 percent rebound rate in a pretty brutish league.

The reason to draft Giddey is for his passing. His ability to make deliveries with either hand at his age is pretty special; he just has to be good enough at the other stuff to where it’s worth putting him on the ball. Unlike the other prospects who have played in Australia, Giddey legitimately impacted winning as a teenager. He’ll also be nearly the youngest player in the draft, with an October 2002 birthdate.

The size, passing and youth make for a strong case. Relative the players above him, however, Giddey has two minuses — athleticism and shooting — and at least one of them needs to turn in his favor.

13. James Bouknight, SG, Connecticut, Sophomore

Pronounced “Bucket.” OK, it’s not, but it should be. He’s a bit undersized for a shooting guard and a bit greedy for a point, but Bouknight’s ability to get this own shot stands out in this class.

Bouknight averaged an eye-popping 39.3 points per 100 possessions in nine Big East games as a sophomore at UConn this season, despite a midseason injury that seemed to affect his shooting once he came back. He can take it to the cup and finish with long strides and length (54.5 percent on 2s in the Big East with a high free throw rate), plus he gets off the floor on his jumper and is comfortable shooting pull-ups off the dribble.

That doesn’t make him wart-free. You’d like to see more consistency in his perimeter stroke (29.3 percent from 3 this year, 32 percent career, although he’s an 80 percent foul shooter); opponents may just go under screens on him and dare him to bomb way. Bouknight also needs to increase his feel as a passer if he wants to play a prominent on-ball role. His rate of 3.2 assists per 100 was unacceptable for a high-volume guard.

Bouknight needs to show a bit more verve defensively. He shows good lateral quickness, has decent length and competes when he’s guarding on the ball, but he also chills out off the ball and doesn’t anticipate plays. He also needs to build up his skinny frame, as opposing 2s will likely try to take him on the block. One encouraging sign: He does rebound, with 10.2 boards per 100 in Big East play.

The value proposition here is that high-level shot creation still matters. Bouknight has a lot of Jordan Clarkson in him, both for good and bad, but it’s not hard to imagine him becoming an annual Sixth Man winner.

[Old Man Game]

I appreciate Hollinger's analysis. I think having a different top five is great. This sort of group think where every mock has the same 6 guys at the top is boring and probably contributes at some level to high end lottery busts.

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[Dadouv47]

What's worth the 7th pick here? Gs may want to trade their pick for a star...maybe a 3 team deal is possible but I'm not sure if it's worth spending A LOT of future picks to get 6/7/16.

I don’t see how a three team deal works that involve another team getting a star and us getting an asset. If a team had a star to trade for the warriors, why wouldn’t they want their pick as opposed to a handful of ours that aren’t as good?

Same thing with trying to trade for Simmons. Even if we had a top five pick this year and offered it as the center piece of a Simmons deal, that’s not what Philly wants.

me neither actually. I'm so desperate that I'm overthinking