2025 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

[Lateral Quicks]

Moreno 0 for 1 with 3 BB so far tonight. Bowmanville has walked 9 already, so it's probably a combination of they don't want to pitch to him and they couldn't hit the broadside of a barn if they wanted to...

[vaff87]

Moreno 0 for 1 with 3 BB so far tonight. Bowmanville has walked 9 already, so it's probably a combination of they don't want to pitch to him and they couldn't hit the broadside of a barn if they wanted to...

Another walk. Four on the night so far, lol

[Randle McMurphy]

It’s almost like they told him they wanted to see more walks before promoting him up and then he just decided to lol

[Schad]

I'm beginning to think that Moreno might be too good for AA pitching. In his past nine games, he's 14 for 33 with 7 XBHs, 6 walks, and 2 strikeouts.

Ye gods.

[vaff87]

I'm beginning to think that Moreno might be too good for AA pitching. In his past nine games, he's 14 for 33 with 7 XBHs, 6 walks, and 2 strikeouts.

Ye gods.

He currently has a higher OPS than Vladdy had when he hit .400 in AA.

[Schad]

He currently has a higher OPS than Vladdy had when he hit .400 in AA.

Here's a complete list of players to post an OPS above 1.000 in AANE/the Eastern League in a decade, in 150 PAs, age 22 season or younger (Moreno's 100% going to be above that when he hits 150 PAs):

Vlad, 2018.

End of list.

Mookie Betts was at .994 in 2014.

[Schad]

On the subject of guys who probably need to be promoted, we're fast approaching the moment where we ought to call up Kevin Smith and DFA Panik. I'm still pretty iffy on Smith, though he has made massive progress improving his formerly atrocious K:BB, but he's another guy who is Rule 5 eligible and will definitely get selected. Even if it's only a part-time job, with Smith playing 3B against LHP and spot-starting otherwise, we're at the point where we need to make a determination.

[vaff87]

A remarkable thing about Moreno’s numbers are that they’re consistent across the board right now. He has an OPS over 1.100 in all of the following situations: home games, away games, day games, night games, vs left handers, vs right handers, in May, in June, etc.

[raptorforlife88]

Moreno should be untouchable at this point. Jays remarkable run of position prospects just keeps going.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[Schad]

It's been two months, and at least twice a week I check the box score for Lansing Lugnut games and then get confused as to why I don't recognize any of the players.

[Trilogy]

It's been two months, and at least twice a week I check the box score for Lansing Lugnut games and then get confused as to why I don't recognize any of the players.

Groundhog Day with the focal point being the Lansing Lugnuts seems like the cruelest of fates.

[wamco]

On the subject of guys who probably need to be promoted, we're fast approaching the moment where we ought to call up Kevin Smith and DFA Panik. I'm still pretty iffy on Smith, though he has made massive progress improving his formerly atrocious K:BB, but he's another guy who is Rule 5 eligible and will definitely get selected. Even if it's only a part-time job, with Smith playing 3B against LHP and spot-starting otherwise, we're at the point where we need to make a determination.

I think they’ll let him rip up aaa and attempt to use him as a trade chip

[dagger]

I'm guessing that the Jays' talent crew has had a lot of thoughts on replacing Marcus Semien in the off-season and upgrading 3B. There are several candidates for those positions, post-Semien and post-Panik. Espinal, Biggio (though he is sub-optimal defensively), Smith, Otto Lopez, Austin Martin, Samad Taylor and Jordan Groshans. Smith, Martin, Taylor and Groshans are not on the 40-man roster. Groshans and Martin are not Rule-5 eligible this winter. So the considerations must be around who represent the best candidates to replace Semien/Panik and if the best options are currently not on the 40-man roster, when and how can the team broaden its evaluation of them, is it by dumping Panik sooner than later and elevating, say Smith to MLB? Maybe get Taylor to AAA? I imagine a lot of folks would be perplexed at the thought of not re-signing Semien, but he'll be 31 next season and assuming he will be looking for a multi-year deal well north of his current $18-million salary, the team has to ask itself if letting him go (for a comp pick) at a position where it has very high end organizational depth isn't a better option than losing, or passing on, starting pitching where it is thinner. Next winter ought to see the team seriously get into Bo/Vlad extension talk, and buying out their arb years, so the issue of whom to chase with long-term money is going to be a lot more important. And this winter, unlike last, there promise to be a lot more teams out there with money to chase the better free agents.

[Schad]

On the subject of guys who probably need to be promoted, we're fast approaching the moment where we ought to call up Kevin Smith and DFA Panik. I'm still pretty iffy on Smith, though he has made massive progress improving his formerly atrocious K:BB, but he's another guy who is Rule 5 eligible and will definitely get selected. Even if it's only a part-time job, with Smith playing 3B against LHP and spot-starting otherwise, we're at the point where we need to make a determination.

I think they’ll let him rip up aaa and attempt to use him as a trade chip

While possible, his well-documented previous struggles probably limit his value as a trade chip. Like, if we wanted a fairly-solid-but-unspectacular reliever, or a third piece in a bigger deal, Smith likely gets it done. But if we want to see whether he's for real, we likely will want to actually run him out at the major league level.

[Schad]

Feel like I should highlight a bit of a sleeper in the organization. Addison Barger was our 6th rounder back in 2018 out of high school, as a shortstop with bat speed, a good arm, and the chance to have average power/hit tool. Instead, he's cranking XBHs and whiffing with abandon, while getting moved all over the infield (he's sharing time with Hiraldo, Orelvis and Jimenez). His iso power is approaching .300, and he's striking out more than 30% of the time. Probably not a combination that bodes well as he moves up the ladder, but this is his first exposure to full-season.

[wamco]

On the subject of guys who probably need to be promoted, we're fast approaching the moment where we ought to call up Kevin Smith and DFA Panik. I'm still pretty iffy on Smith, though he has made massive progress improving his formerly atrocious K:BB, but he's another guy who is Rule 5 eligible and will definitely get selected. Even if it's only a part-time job, with Smith playing 3B against LHP and spot-starting otherwise, we're at the point where we need to make a determination.

I think they’ll let him rip up aaa and attempt to use him as a trade chip

While possible, his well-documented previous struggles probably limit his value as a trade chip. Like, if we wanted a fairly-solid-but-unspectacular reliever, or a third piece in a bigger deal, Smith likely gets it done. But if we want to see whether he's for real, we likely will want to actually run him out at the major league level.

Sure and that’s the risk. Other teams will see if he is for real as well

[Schad]

Sure and that’s the risk. Other teams will see if he is for real as well

Sure. It's just that the value of a "for real" Smith diverges much more from his current value than a "it was a mirage" Smith does. His track record of success is short enough that he's not at all a major piece as things stand. But if he actually hits in the majors, as a guy who can play MI/3B fairly well, he's very valuable. I'm always pretty iffy about making those sorts of moves for rental relievers and the like, because it has limited upside with a fairly significant potential downside. I'd rather roll the dice on finding out whether he can hack it, rather than gain 25 IP of moderately-improved middle relief or something.

[raptorforlife88]

I agree with Schad. Kevin Smith probably has limited value in a deal, but if he's really figured things out, then his combination of power, speed, positional flexibility can be pretty valuable. A genuinely improved Kevin Smith could have Biggio value with more defensive chops.

He's gotten mentioned a few times, but I don't think I'm as high on Otto Lopez. His contact rate would have to be a lot better for his bat to play given his absolute zero power. He's mostly hitting ground balls. His BABIP is sky high and his K% is 19%. Which is fine, but given his power probably means it'll be higher and less valuable if he moves up. I'm not really seeing it. You don't need to have Madrigal contact rates to succeed with zero power, but even then his profile doesn't look that great.

[Schad]

He's gotten mentioned a few times, but I don't think I'm as high on Otto Lopez. His contact rate would have to be a lot better for his bat to play given his absolute zero power. He's mostly hitting ground balls. His BABIP is sky high and his K% is 19%. Which is fine, but given his power probably means it'll be higher and less valuable if he moves up. I'm not really seeing it. You don't need to have Madrigal contact rates to succeed with zero power, but even then his profile doesn't look that great.

With Lopez the good news is that, by all accounts, he hits his fair share of hard liners, so he should be capable of sustaining a relatively high BABIP. Just not a .439 BABIP, and even pricing in a .360 BABIP or something changes his overall numbers pretty radically.

Like you, I'm not exceedingly high on him, unless he can add a bit of power. But he could be an above-average-OBP superutility guy, which is still quite useful. That he's an abysmal basestealer isn't a big deal overall, but may limit some of his value in that role, though.