2021 Draft Thread

[The-Power]

Right now he isn't. But he has something that is elite, which is his quickness. He's also able to create a lot of his own offense while being a good catch and shoot player. That's very valuable. He needs more reps as the guy, but this was the first year he was that guy and he had a 50/40/60 year. If his shot is for real he has a shot to be a difference maker on the offensive end.

The 60 at the end is a big problem, though. If he was an 80+% FT shooter I could see the appeal somewhat. But he isn't, and he's not showing any improvement at the line and that's a concern, especially considering that he has no track record of being a good 3pt shooter either. It's a complete outlier year for him.

So I have two questions. First, how many good shooters in the league are mid-60% FT shooters? Second, how many undersized Guards who aren't good shooters (and also not elite playmakers) are difference-makers in the league? If the answer to both questions is ‘zero’ – or very close to it – then I really don't understand all that confidence you have in Mitchell.

And for the record, besides Mitchell I actually agree a lot with your rankings, which makes this one discrepancy all the more surprising to me and I'm genuinely trying to understand where you're coming from.

[Onus]

Right now he isn't. But he has something that is elite, which is his quickness. He's also able to create a lot of his own offense while being a good catch and shoot player. That's very valuable. He needs more reps as the guy, but this was the first year he was that guy and he had a 50/40/60 year. If his shot is for real he has a shot to be a difference maker on the offensive end.

The 60 at the end is a big problem, though. If he was an 80+% FT shooter I could see the appeal somewhat. But he isn't, and he's not showing any improvement at the line and that's a concern, especially considering that he has no track record of being a good 3pt shooter either. It's a complete outlier year for him.

So I have two questions. First, how many good shooters in the league are mid-60% FT shooters? Second, how many undersized Guards who aren't good shooters (and also not elite playmakers) are difference-makers in the league? If the answer to both questions is ‘zero’ – or very close to it – then I really don't understand all that confidence you have in Mitchell.

And for the record, besides Mitchell I actually agree a lot with your rankings, which makes this one discrepancy all the more surprising to me and I'm genuinely trying to understand where you're coming from.

IDK is Lonzo ball a good shooter? Didn't he start out at 60%. JR Smith, Frank Kaminsky, Jaden Mcdaniels, Kenrich Williams, Danuel House, Alex Caruso, Mychal Mulder, Marcus Smart etc turns out there's quite a few "shooters" who are sub 70%.

2nd question: Bruce Brown? Marcus Smart? Cam Payne, Patrick Beverly, Shroeder IDK there's probably more

If he was an 80% ft shooter there'd be very little to critique. I think your issue is that you don't believe in his shot and you believe this was just an outlier year for him. Which very well could be true.

I just happen to believe in his shot. He gets great balance on his pull ups and pull backs, gets great separation. His shot is repeatable. There's no major hitches. He took more 3s than fts so the sample size on 3s is probably better than his ft%. I believe in his shot creation because of his speed and quickness. Now if his shot regresses back towards being nonexistent he can probably be a back up pg who can get hot from time to time, which isn't a bad floor. But if his shot is for real he's got real upside. Shot creation while being an adequate passer is a really valuable skill, especially with the game being more and more wide open. I just think if you give him a real spaced floor he's going to be hard to contain. He played with 2 bigs for most of the year so it wasn't like the paint was open for him at Baylor. He had to create his own shot in isolation or off screens, which he excelled at which are a premium in the NBA. He plays off the ball, great catch and shoot ability, ability to attack close outs and moves the ball.

[TB]

Bones Hyland and Moses Wright looked great in first combine game. Hyland this was expected, Wright I had never seen play before. And now i'm wondering why Wright isn't on many mocks.... big, athletic, looks like he can shoot and pass a bit.... acc player of year... seems like he's way under the radar.

[The-Power]

The 60 at the end is a big problem, though. If he was an 80+% FT shooter I could see the appeal somewhat. But he isn't, and he's not showing any improvement at the line and that's a concern, especially considering that he has no track record of being a good 3pt shooter either. It's a complete outlier year for him.

So I have two questions. First, how many good shooters in the league are mid-60% FT shooters? Second, how many undersized Guards who aren't good shooters (and also not elite playmakers) are difference-makers in the league? If the answer to both questions is ‘zero’ – or very close to it – then I really don't understand all that confidence you have in Mitchell.

And for the record, besides Mitchell I actually agree a lot with your rankings, which makes this one discrepancy all the more surprising to me and I'm genuinely trying to understand where you're coming from.

IDK is Lonzo ball a good shooter? Didn't he start out at 60%. JR Smith, Frank Kaminsky, Jaden Mcdaniels, Kenrich Williams, Danuel House, Alex Caruso, Mychal Mulder, Marcus Smart etc turns out there's quite a few "shooters" who are sub 70%.

Well, I don't mean players who maybe had a season where they shot sub-70% from the line. Mitchell has done it three seasons in a row with zero improvement. Besides, I would consider none of these guys good shooters besides maybe J.R. Smith. For some of them, shooting is actually a bit of a flaw or concern.

I'm not saying that saying that there aren't some players who don't shoot FTs well but can hit some shots. I'm also not talking about Mitchell as someone who won't be able to hit some 3's. I'm talking about legitimately good shooters which I believe Mitchell would have to become to warrant being picked in the lottery. If he's Smart or Lonzo as a shooter then that's a problem.

2nd question: Bruce Brown? Marcus Smart? Cam Payne, Patrick Beverly, Shroeder IDK there's probably more

Mitchell is 6'0'' in socks with a 6'4.5'' WS.

Brown is 6'3.5'' in socks with a 6'9'' WS.
Smart is 6'2'' in socks with a 6'9.25'' WS.
Schröder is 6'1''/6'2'' in socks with a 6'7.5'' WS (some conflicting measurements but it's in that range).
Beverley says he has a 6'7'' WS (couldn't find any official measurements).
Payne has a 6'7.25'' WS.

None of these players besides Smart are difference makers. None of these players – besides Smart – are worth a mid-lottery pick with hindsight. Yet, every single one of them was still bigger and/or longer than Mitchell.

If those are the players that we have to look at as undersized, non-elite shooters and non-elite playmakers who made an impact then that doesn't bode well for Mitchell at all. Can he be a Patrick Beverley type of player? Sure. Do I want to pick that kind of player at 7? Hell no.

If he was an 80% ft shooter there'd be very little to critique.

He'd still be undersized and limited in his ability to create for himself and others (for a lead Guard). So I still probably wouldn't rate him that highly but I could at least see an argument. Right now, with his track record as a FT shooter and 3pt shooter? I just can't.

I think your issue is that you don't believe in his shot and you believe this was just an outlier year for him. Which very well could be true.

I just happen to believe in his shot.

Okay, so we're just seeing his shooting very differently. I suppose there's nothing left but to agree to disagree and wait to see what happens. Nothing wrong with that, can't see eye to eye on all prospects – and since I've been wrong before, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong again, even though I stand by my logic above.

[wupuck]

Just stating that I dont think Barnes will be there at 7 tho

Barnes seems to me to be the best pick this year - I too hope he's there at 7. hard to say who'd I'd want at 7 since there doesn't seem to be that many inspiring prospects as all seem to have more ticketed as bench players rather than starters after the first 5-6 - not sure why they consider this a deep draft. Wagner's package is quite interesting as well. I do hope either Springer & Sengun are there at 14 as they're the other players of interest to me. Jalen Johnson and Giddy are flat no's for me. Giddy seems too 1 dimensional and JJ quitting on a duke team just screams immaturity to me.

I'm not sure what the fascination is w/ Davion Mitchell. He's 6'1" w/ shoes on. Meaning he can only be effective defensively if the team can use a box and 1 on say a warriors team that doesn't have a big they can PnR with. Also he's already 22 yrs old going on 23 and can't shoot a FT (64%???) which is a straight no-no if your an already undersized guard. If he were 3 years younger and 2 inches taller, using a 7th pick is a pretty sure bet but at his current production and age 14th pick at the earliest IMHO and realistically a late 1st round pick.

[Onus]

Spoiler:

The 60 at the end is a big problem, though. If he was an 80+% FT shooter I could see the appeal somewhat. But he isn't, and he's not showing any improvement at the line and that's a concern, especially considering that he has no track record of being a good 3pt shooter either. It's a complete outlier year for him.

So I have two questions. First, how many good shooters in the league are mid-60% FT shooters? Second, how many undersized Guards who aren't good shooters (and also not elite playmakers) are difference-makers in the league? If the answer to both questions is ‘zero’ – or very close to it – then I really don't understand all that confidence you have in Mitchell.

And for the record, besides Mitchell I actually agree a lot with your rankings, which makes this one discrepancy all the more surprising to me and I'm genuinely trying to understand where you're coming from.

IDK is Lonzo ball a good shooter? Didn't he start out at 60%. JR Smith, Frank Kaminsky, Jaden Mcdaniels, Kenrich Williams, Danuel House, Alex Caruso, Mychal Mulder, Marcus Smart etc turns out there's quite a few "shooters" who are sub 70%.

Well, I don't mean players who maybe had a season where they shot sub-70% from the line. Mitchell has done it three seasons in a row with zero improvement. Besides, I would consider none of these guys good shooters besides maybe J.R. Smith. For some of them, shooting is actually a bit of a flaw or concern.

I'm not saying that saying that there aren't some players who don't shoot FTs well but can hit some shots. I'm also not talking about Mitchell as someone who won't be able to hit some 3's. I'm talking about legitimately good shooters which I believe Mitchell would have to become to warrant being picked in the lottery. If he's Smart or Lonzo as a shooter then that's a problem.

2nd question: Bruce Brown? Marcus Smart? Cam Payne, Patrick Beverly, Shroeder IDK there's probably more

Mitchell is 6'0'' in socks with a 6'4.5'' WS.

Brown is 6'3.5'' in socks with a 6'9'' WS.
Smart is 6'2'' in socks with a 6'9.25'' WS.
Schröder is 6'1''/6'2'' in socks with a 6'7.5'' WS (some conflicting measurements but it's in that range).
Beverley says he has a 6'7'' WS (couldn't find any official measurements).
Payne has a 6'7.25'' WS.

None of these players besides Smart are difference makers. None of these players – besides Smart – are worth a mid-lottery pick with hindsight. Yet, every single one of them was still bigger and/or longer than Mitchell.

If those are the players that we have to look at as undersized, non-elite shooters and non-elite playmakers who made an impact then that doesn't bode well for Mitchell at all. Can he be a Patrick Beverley type of player? Sure. Do I want to pick that kind of player at 7? Hell no.

If he was an 80% ft shooter there'd be very little to critique.

He'd still be undersized and limited in his ability to create for himself and others (for a lead Guard). So I still probably wouldn't rate him that highly but I could at least see an argument. Right now, with his track record as a FT shooter and 3pt shooter? I just can't.

I think your issue is that you don't believe in his shot and you believe this was just an outlier year for him. Which very well could be true.

I just happen to believe in his shot.

Okay, so we're just seeing his shooting very differently. I suppose there's nothing left but to agree to disagree and wait to see what happens. Nothing wrong with that, can't see eye to eye on all prospects – and since I've been wrong before, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong again, even though I stand by my logic above.

I agree that believing in trends would have you very skeptical of Mitchell. I'm trusting my eyes. If he does bust and just ends up a back up pg, which is probably a likely outcome I may take a little less trust on my eyes.

[FNQ]

He's a good player - couldnt disagree more about length FWIW - but I think the issue isn't his skill or potential, I think its fit. Curry's our PG, and Poole's his mini-me. We'd be forced to play Mitchell with one of those 2 pretty much for all of his PT, and that would be 2 players with either severe defensive weaknesses or less ability to disrupt shooters on switches (where length is very important)

yeah, I would only take mitchell at 14. I want Moody at 7. If they don't like Moody, then Keon maybe. I want scoring. Our offense effing blows except Steph and Klay.

Exactly! For years someone always brings up the best college defender and the pitch to acquire comes in. My thing is can they shoot. Curry and klay came in and scouting reports and fans were like I doubt lateral quickness. Michael Kidd Gilchrist was a star wing defender but he couldn't shoot. Remember Chris singleton? Davion seems like a fine dude, but I think using the 7th on a backup is a waste

MKG! Thats the guy I was trying to think of earlier.. I know he cant shoot but he was actually out of the league this year

When people bring up Zaire, thats who I think of.. except Ziaire chucks so so much, whereas MKG was smart enough to recognize his lack of jumper

[SFrush]

I thought Moody's stock took somewhat of a hit after the tourney. Against ball pressure he didn't have the ball handling or the quick first step to combat it.

[DAWill1128]

I like Kispert at #14, the NBA continues to become more 3 ball focused and he’s the best shooter in this draft. A lot of games I saw Kispert he just seemed to dominate, almost toying with opponents. Gonzaga seemed to just blow out almost everyone. But not only was he great on the catch and shoot, he was excellent moving off ball, was great on the fastbreak, and played with a really high b-ball IQ. I thought he was pretty physical for his size. I believe he’s definitely NBA ready and I think he would fit into our team and system well, it’s not hard to imagine his fit.

The #7 spot is tricky. I am not seeing any home runs at #7 in this draft. I actually liked some of the physical dribble drive game that Nix had for the Ignite, he probably would’ve had a great year in college. I don’t see Kuminga dropping but his scoring ability at forward makes him a no brained if he falls somehow.

[KevinMcreynolds]

landing Moody and Kispert would be a coup

[whatisacenter]

landing Moody and Kispert would be a coup

I would be happy with that outcome and then tankathon has the dubs taking Keon Johnson and Kai Jones which would be pretty much polar opposite but appealing to me as well. They are both plus athletes and thrive in a switching defense. I am curious to see which direction they go.

[Quazza]

Know someone who knows someone kinda thing within the Adelaide 36s. Apparently it's been us and Toronto that have shown the most interest in Giddey

[shazam_guy]

Having watched Ziaire all year at Stanford (although he missed a lot of games on IR or Covid or whatever) I don't see much similarity between him and MKG -- but that doesn't mean I think Z is a good draft choice, either. I'd LOVE a local Stanford dude to make good, and he may well in a few years, but he was raw and tentative as hell for most of the season. Did not look like a one-and-done guy and I'm not sure why he's entering the draft. MKG, as I remember, was a pretty serious interior player and rebounder for his size. Ziaire hasn't shown that yet, or anything close to it. Got some definite upside, and if I was the GM of a rebuilding young team drafting 12 or below I'd likely consider him -- more likely for an end-of-round choice. But for the Warriors, no. He looks like a small-forward Wiseman, but with a lot farther to go to prove he can thrive in the NBA.

[shazam_guy]

Why is Corey Kispert not going to be Adam Morrison 2.0? I didn't get to watch him much this year, so I'm asking, not saying that's what's going to happen.

I'd rather take a flyer on someone like Jaden Springer, if we're just coin-tossing on who our #14 might be.

[mos_def]

Why is Corey Kispert not going to be Adam Morrison 2.0? I didn't get to watch him much this year, so I'm asking, not saying that's what's going to happen.

I'd rather take a flyer on someone like Jaden Springer, if we're just coin-tossing on who our #14 might be.

Hes the best shooter in the draft. A tall JJ Reddick

[Scoots1994]

Which prospects are the best shot creators/makers?

Look at the 4 teams in the WCF and ECF. PG13 and Kawhi, Booker and CP3, maybe throw in Payne there too, then you have Trae and if Bogdan wasn't injured he could do some of it. Huerter is showing some shot creation skills with some separation pull up moves. Middleton and Jrue have been hit and miss but have made enough shots off the bounce to get the Bucks where they are.

And Luka obviously gave the Clippers problems, so did KD vs. the Bucks.

So probably Green and Suggs, along with Cade? But it may take them awhile to show great efficiency at all 3 levels in the NBA, in particular their 3 point shooting.

Anybody else show potential to be able to get their shots whenever they want and maybe disrupt defenses enough to create very good looks for other players?

Can Mobley have KD like crossover moves despite his length?

Warriors are picking 7th and it sounds like there's all kinds of variance on players in the 7-14 range. Someone in this range will be all-stars but not immediately obvious which ones will be.

Cade is a little scary with his turnover rate. Will be interesting to see how he does.

Suggs is good creating for himself and others. Green is less of a creator for others.

[mos_def]

Why is Corey Kispert not going to be Adam Morrison 2.0? I didn't get to watch him much this year, so I'm asking, not saying that's what's going to happen.

I'd rather take a flyer on someone like Jaden Springer, if we're just coin-tossing on who our #14 might be.

Hes the best shooter in the draft. Gordon Hayward

[KevinMcreynolds]

Why is Corey Kispert not going to be Adam Morrison 2.0? I didn't get to watch him much this year, so I'm asking, not saying that's what's going to happen.

I'd rather take a flyer on someone like Jaden Springer, if we're just coin-tossing on who our #14 might be.

His jumper’s wet and I feel like his transition into our offense would be seamless. He’s all about the backpack and curl game

[wco81]

But can he defend or will he be hunted?

There are a couple of other players who shot well over 40% from 3 and they're showing a lot of athleticism in the combine, Weiskamp and one other guy.

[killmongrel]

I was listening to one of the podcasts and the host suggested using the salaries of the pick and trade them for Joe Ingles. Haha. Is it just me or is that a horrible idea? I like Joe Ingles, but I would never trade young lottery talent for him. At least not the 7th pick.