2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[bondom34]

A lot of truth this, though I don't know if it's a trap or just the Bucks not being fundamentally very good at "moving the ball", also known as passing.

The Bucks have 3 guys who get major assists on the team, and none of them are guys who should be your main assist guy on a great offensive team. They just don't have that floor general vision, nor the ability to consistently adapt adroitly and make heady plays.

So I'd say with the Bucks we saw essentially the perfect team to make the Nets look good on defense, which doesn't bode well for the Bucks when they face teams that are better equipped to do what even the Nets were able to do defensively.

But hey, I'd agree that if we start seeing the Bucks adapt with an offense where the ball flows across the court - the beautiful game rather than the ugly one we've seen - that would change things.

Yep, think this is the chicken or the egg a little bit. Did the offense fall off because the Nets were good at it, or because the Bucks fell into a trap (or a combination of both)? Ultimately it's a bit of why I still struggle trusting the Bucks entirely, they feel a little like a slightly more trustworthy version of the Sixers in some regards.

Also a bit like the Houston/GSW matchup from a few years ago with the Warriors falling into Houston's defensive strengths.

Well, I do think that the use of switches tends to induce iso play, and thus a stagnant, swampy offense. In this sense you could call what's happening a trap, but it's not a trap that I see as pertaining to specific defensive teams. It's just something that might make a coach scream "Keep the ball moving!" in any given game. The Nets are probably aware that teams falling into stagnancy is a possible advantage of their scheme, but their scheme is also one of "just getting by how we can".

It's within the realm of possibility that the Bucks are able to come into future series saying "Remember what happened against Brooklyn, gotta keep the ball moving" and this changes everything. Teams learn from their past mistakes after all, which is why prediction is so hard.

But just seeing what we've seen so far from the Bucks offense, I'm concerned. Going into the Nets series I said something like "Bucks going to lose again, but Giannis might average 40 per game". It's nice the Bucks won, but I was expecting their offense to be able to do more (and granted, their defense played particularly well, which may carry them to the chip).

Was Brooklyn switch heavy? I was under the impression they weren't switching, it was just stagnant offense and they didn't require it. I'd expect them to struggle a good bit more with that type of defense than straight 1 on 1.

Saying all this, I absolutely could see the Bucks winning the title. They've got the talent, I don't question if they have the right fit for it either. I could talk myself into either them or the Suns on any given day.

[bondom34]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

Honestly hope you're right . I could see it going either way in the finals. Just super impressed by this Suns team as well and as much as I say I "don't trust" the Bucks, I do think he can be dominant and win it. Not really so much a theory thing as every once in a while they just sort of feel out of sorts and can't put my finger on it.

Edit: Also as a team they're the exact story I like to see winning. A team that really worked over a few years and kept kind of maxing out at a certain point finding its way to a title (in a small market even) behind a star some have questioned.

[parsnips33]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

I still remember when jump shooting teams couldn't win a championship

[falcolombardi]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

I still remember when jump shooting teams couldn't win a championship

i never understood that, had there not been lots of jumpshooting heavy winning teams already?

were not even the bulls in the second threepeat reliant on jump shooting?

[nolang1]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

I still remember when jump shooting teams couldn't win a championship

i never understood that, had there not been lots of jumpshooting heavy winning teams already?

were not even the bulls in the second threepeat reliant on jump shooting?

They were reliant on the good kinds of jumpshots from inside the three-point arc though.

But seriously it is pretty crazy that the '96-97 Bulls were 2nd-to-last in percentage of shot attempts within 3 feet of the basket and dead last in percentage of shot attempts within 10 feet.

[falcolombardi]

I still remember when jump shooting teams couldn't win a championship

i never understood that, had there not been lots of jumpshooting heavy winning teams already?

were not even the bulls in the second threepeat reliant on jump shooting?

They were reliant on the good kinds of jumpshots from inside the three-point arc though.

But seriously it is pretty crazy that the '96-97 Bulls were 2nd-to-last in percentage of shot attempts within 3 feet of the basket and dead last in percentage of shot attempts within 10 feet.

i honestly wonder sometimes, if teams played exactly the same way they do know, jump shots from the corners and long shots, exactly the same

but there was no 3 pointt line so they were 2's instead of 3's. would there be less vitriol against modern basketball for being a jumpshooting game?

would people praise modern basketball for its tough defense as ganes would average like 100 points or less despite being exactly the same ?

[Fadeaway_J]

i never understood that, had there not been lots of jumpshooting heavy winning teams already?

were not even the bulls in the second threepeat reliant on jump shooting?

They were reliant on the good kinds of jumpshots from inside the three-point arc though.

But seriously it is pretty crazy that the '96-97 Bulls were 2nd-to-last in percentage of shot attempts within 3 feet of the basket and dead last in percentage of shot attempts within 10 feet.

i honestly wonder sometimes, if teams played exactly the same way they do know, jump shots from the corners and long shots, exactly the same

but there was no 3 pointt line so they were 2's instead of 3's. would there be less vitriol against modern basketball for being a jumpshooting game?

would people praise modern basketball for its tough defense as ganes would average like 100 points or less despite being exactly the same ?

Yes, which is absurd.

[Texas Chuck]

Basketball would be far less of a jumpshooting game without that 50% bump. Silly to think teams would take a bunch of long 2's from the corner with an expected return of like .8 points per possession and that's from the better shooters.

That 50% premium is enormous.

[Prez]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

Suns are really not a good matchup for them for a number of reasons, and Suns are also just legit really good matchup aside. I honestly would favor Phoenix in that series. And they’re healthier too, with the Bucks missing a critical defensive piece in guarding that Phoenix backcourt (Donte).

[Texas Chuck]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

Suns are really not a good matchup for them for a number of reasons, and Suns are also just legit really good matchup aside. I honestly would favor Phoenix in that series. And they’re healthier too, with the Bucks missing a critical defensive piece in guarding that Phoenix backcourt (Donte).

Suns are very good(Clippers too for that matter if they can pull off winning 3 straight and Atlanta is conceding nothing). This was less a prediction that the Bucks were winning the title and more a resignation of what will continue to be the narrative if they do. Or maybe not. Maybe everyone will overreact back the other way.

But man the stories that have been spun around Giannis this playoffs have just been wild itt. You'd think he was Julius Randle or something the way he's been talked about.

[bondom34]

Bucks are going to win the title this year with Giannis being the dominant player and the narrative is still going to be its impossible to win with Giannis. And I'm going to smile as once again theory gives way to reality. Theory is great, but stars break theory.

Suns are really not a good matchup for them for a number of reasons, and Suns are also just legit really good matchup aside. I honestly would favor Phoenix in that series. And they’re healthier too, with the Bucks missing a critical defensive piece in guarding that Phoenix backcourt (Donte).

Suns are very good(Clippers too for that matter if they can pull off winning 3 straight and Atlanta is conceding nothing). This was less a prediction that the Bucks were winning the title and more a resignation of what will continue to be the narrative if they do. Or maybe not. Maybe everyone will overreact back the other way.

But man the stories that have been spun around Giannis this playoffs have just been wild itt. You'd think he was Julius Randle or something the way he's been talked about.

It's always fascinating to me the narratives that take hold. Similar to "Lebron ball" or whatever it was called. We've had calls that Kawhi didn't know basketball in the first round because they were down 2-0 to the Mavs and he brought in the wrong co-star. We've had all sorts of stuff over the years and once something grabs hold it's tough for a player to shake what people want to think.

[falcolombardi]

if mavs dont have succes soon the critics against doncicball will start too

[Texas Chuck]

if mavs dont have succes soon the critics against doncicball will start too

mmmm okay? He's going into year 4 with ROY, most efficient offense ever, 1st team all-NBA, led team to playoffs and performed great in his 2nd year. 3rd year repeats 1st team all NBA, leads team to a higher seed even after his team missed 5 of its top 8 players for weeks with COVID/injury but didn't have enough players out to get games canceled like the other teams hit hardest, plays great in the playoffs again and is all of 22 years old.

I have no idea what roster you think the Mavs around him but its really limited and the guy they are investing the biggest chunk of payroll in has been wildly inconsistent in terms of availability and play. Not sure what reasonable results you can expect the Mavs to have had to date, but even many superstars aren't ahead team results of Luka after 3 years.

And if you think Luka doesn't have critics yet of course he does. Can't shoot(he's starting to answer that one), can't make FT's, too ball dominant, whines too much, holds teammates down, and now he's been blamed for the Nelson firing and Rick quitting. He's already getting criticism mate.

But this Mavs roster isn't that good to be expecting them to be the Suns or something.

[falcolombardi]

if mavs dont have succes soon the critics against doncicball will start too

mmmm okay? He's going into year 4 with ROY, most efficient offense ever, 1st team all-NBA, led team to playoffs and performed great in his 2nd year. 3rd year repeats 1st team all NBA, leads team to a higher seed even after his team missed 5 of its top 8 players for weeks with COVID/injury but didn't have enough players out to get games canceled like the other teams hit hardest, plays great in the playoffs again and is all of 22 years old.

I have no idea what roster you think the Mavs around him but its really limited and the guy they are investing the biggest chunk of payroll in has been wildly inconsistent in terms of availability and play. Not sure what reasonable results you can expect the Mavs to have had to date, but even many superstars aren't ahead team results of Luka after 3 years.

And if you think Luka doesn't have critics yet of course he does. Can't shoot(he's starting to answer that one), can't make FT's, too ball dominant, whines too much, holds teammates down, and now he's been blamed for the Nelson firing and Rick quitting. He's already getting criticism mate.

But this Mavs roster isn't that good to be expecting them to be the Suns or something.

i was not criticizing doncic

just commentng that media is gonna do a 180 on him sooner or later

[Bidofo]

Would not surprise me at all if Clippers came back from 3-1 either. With Zubac out it'll be all 5-out all over again, which is imo their best chance.

[MartinToVaught]

This is why it's so hard to respect CP3 - flopping and dirty plays:

Read on Twitter

[RCM88x]

Basketball would be far less of a jumpshooting game without that 50% bump. Silly to think teams would take a bunch of long 2's from the corner with an expected return of like .8 points per possession and that's from the better shooters.

That 50% premium is enormous.

Amazing such a simple idea took 45 years to realize.

[falcolombardi]

honest question, have jumpers, as a whole, actually increases? or has only the distance they are take from changed?

cause i remember statistics about how the proportion of shots in the paint has been relatively consistent through eras and how nost of the change of the 3 point revolution has been changing mid range jumpers for 3 point jumpers

which makes sense, no 3 point line doesnt actually mean every shot will be in the paint, if anythingh it will make the paint less accesible by reducing spacing

the end result of a 3 point line or not is thst midrange jumpers become bail out shots, somethingh you do when you fail to Access the rim or in modern cases when you fail to Access the rim OR a good 3 point look

the value of a midrange shot imo has not changed that much, midrange is still a last resource, buckets are still the priority, but 3 pointers are now in the middle of both extremes of priority

[bondom34]

honest question, have jumpers, as a whole, actually increases? or has only the distance they are take from changed?

cause i remember statistics about how the proportion of shots in the paint has been relatively consistent through eras and how nost of the change of the 3 point revolution has been changing mid range jumpers for 3 point jumpers

which makes sense, no 3 point line doesnt actually mean every shot will be in the paint, if anythingh it will make the paint less accesible by reducing spacing

the end result of a 3 point line or not is thst midrange jumpers become bail out shots, somethingh you do when you fail to Access the rim or in modern cases when you fail to Access the rim OR a good 3 point look

the value of a midrange shot imo has not changed that much, midrange is still a last resource, buckets are still the priority, but 3 pointers are now in the middle of both extremes of priority

https://theathletic.com/1205425/2019/09/13/seth-partnow-analysis-the-lost-art-of-the-inartful-midrange/

Some graphs:







Mostly guys who used to spot up at 20 feet are taking a few steps back because well, its not much distance and its worth a lot more.

[TheGOATRises007]

Clippers' offense looks incredible with the 5-out attack

Anyone have their ORTG with these line-ups?