The treadmill of losing: what if LeBron didn't come back?

[JonFromVA]

Fans fear the treadmill of mediocrity and enjoy getting lottery picks because of the hope they bring each season, but you have to come out of a rebuild or tank job with a core and that core generally needs to be pushed to the level of contention with some signings or trades to work-out fit and add veterans to fill holes and help the team learn how to win.

So, let's revisit 2014 for a moment, and ponder whether that team could have been pushed in to contention if LeBron didn't return.

Let's take a look post-lottery but we can assume Kyrie will be willing to re-sign for the max and anything else our future knowledge grants us.

Our roster looked something like this:

Kyrie, Jack, Delly
Dion, Joe Harris
(Wiggins), Sergey Karasev
Tristan, Bennett
Andy, Zeller

There's some others who might had stuck around if James didn't return to at least fill out the roster, but we can consider them optional. Like CJ Miles, Carrick Felix, Alonzo Gee, Henry Sims, maybe even Spencer Hawes.

We would still have some money to spend in free-agency (even a max offer if we cleared out contracts like we did for James), but the pickings are kind of slim. There's Greg Monroe, Lance Stephenson, Eric Bledsoe, Kyle Lowry, Marcin Gortat, Trevor Ariza, Pau Gasol, Isaiah Thomas, Shaun Livingston, etc, etc, and of course Gordon Hayward who we wanted to sign but he was restricted.

Here's a full list:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2014-nba-free-agency-ranking-the-top-40-free-agents/

The Cavs were also interested in trading for Kevin Love before James announced his return, but they wanted him to agree to stay and he wouldn't.

Using what we know now, could we have turned that team in to a contender?

I think we'd need to ignored the medicals and take Embiid, trade Dion for whatever we can get, and try to sign maybe Lowry and Ariza.

It would be pretty depressing for a couple of seasons waiting for Embiid to get healthy, but I think eventually we'd have a competitive team, but perhaps a 1st or 2nd round out.

And does this tell us anything about our current team?

Maybe that we shouldn't rush things ... and to be very careful we identify the right players to keep .vs. letting go.

[KuruptedCav]

Griffin loved Embiid, but the docs wouldn’t sign off after the navicular bone fracture after his workout with Cleveland.

Also, they needed to **** or get off the pot because of the looming Irving/Thompson free agencies. After wasting a year with the Bennett whiff, it wasn’t good.

They also knew there was a high probability that they wouldn’t be keeping the pick as the groundwork for a 2014 Lebron return had been laid for several years; and a healthy Wiggins was a more tradable player than Joel Embiid.

While waiting for Embiid was the better basketball move, it wasn’t in the cards for that team.


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[Stillwater]

Wiggins was who Minnesota wanted back in a potential KLove deal that already been discussed under the table and imo why he was the pick over Jabari and Embiid because of that reason more than a situation where what if Lebron had not come back and Wiggins was the sf.
That team was not as promising as the current one though I can say that with a lot of confidence

[Revenged25]

I mean if we use hindsight our entire roster should've been different from day 1. But using what we knew at the time, Wiggins still gets picked at #1. He was viewed as just as good of a talent as Embiid was, no health concerns, and filled the massive hole that was in the Cavs line-up at SF. Sure he was bad for Minnesota as the #1 option, but at this point the Cavs have Kyrie already established as the primary ball handler and #1 option so I think Wiggins would fit better as the #2 option in this scenario, much like he's been doing in Golden State. I don't know if Wiggins would be drastically better, but I have no doubt that he would've been better than he was in Minnesota.

second I think the Cavs go after Bledsoe in FA to be the back-up PG/starting SG moving Waiters to the bench to let him be a spark plug there while he worked on his efficiency, offering him 5/80 which is 10 mil more than PHO did to keep him.

PG: Kyrie/Bledsoe/Jack/Delly
SG: Bledsoe/Waiters/Joe Harris
SF: Wiggins/Sergey/Harris
PF: TT/Bennett
C: Andy/Zeller

This team probably does better but still picking in the lottery. Look to get a PF/C in the following draft depending on where they fall, possibly Myles Turner around pick 11.

[Revenged25]

Wiggins was who Minnesota wanted back in a potential KLove deal that already been discussed under the table and imo why he was the pick over Jabari and Embiid because of that reason more than a situation where what if Lebron had not come back and Wiggins was the sf.
That team was not as promising as the current one though I can say that with a lot of confidence

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

[Stillwater]

Wiggins was who Minnesota wanted back in a potential KLove deal that already been discussed under the table and imo why he was the pick over Jabari and Embiid because of that reason more than a situation where what if Lebron had not come back and Wiggins was the sf.
That team was not as promising as the current one though I can say that with a lot of confidence

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

Not saying he wasnt but it was made for the Wolves so who knows what they would have done. Probably the same thing in a trade for somebody else. I recall Parler not wanting to work out for the Cavs and wanted the Bucks. Good thing they didnt draft him with his injury laden career.

[Revenged25]

Wiggins was who Minnesota wanted back in a potential KLove deal that already been discussed under the table and imo why he was the pick over Jabari and Embiid because of that reason more than a situation where what if Lebron had not come back and Wiggins was the sf.
That team was not as promising as the current one though I can say that with a lot of confidence

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

Not saying he wasnt but it was made for the Wolves so who knows what they would have done. Probably the same thing in a trade for somebody else. I recall Parler not wanting to work out for the Cavs and wanted the Bucks. Good thing they didnt draft him with his injury laden career.

And Embiid had just suffered an injury and was going to be out for most if not all of his rookie season. I couldn't see Gilbert making that call when he was trying to win and the best way to do that was for the biggest upgrade to the roster possible, Wiggins over Deng, rather than Parker over TT/Bennett which I'm not sure if they were done with after his rookie season or still hoped he could get it together, but it really didn't matter since Love was available at that point with LeBron.

[Stillwater]

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

Not saying he wasnt but it was made for the Wolves so who knows what they would have done. Probably the same thing in a trade for somebody else. I recall Parler not wanting to work out for the Cavs and wanted the Bucks. Good thing they didnt draft him with his injury laden career.

And Embiid had just suffered an injury and was going to be out for most if not all of his rookie season. I couldn't see Gilbert making that call when he was trying to win and the best way to do that was for the biggest upgrade to the roster possible, Wiggins over Deng, rather than Parker over TT/Bennett which I'm not sure if they were done with after his rookie season or still hoped he could get it together, but it really didn't matter since Love was available at that point with LeBron.

Yeah the problems they had back then trying to make a meh roster outside Kyrie appealing for the King are worse than deciding what to do with the 3rd pick with no GOAT returning or maybe returning ever again. Personally glad that is in the past I just assume leave it there lol
Wiggins was my choice with a injured Embiid but I would have been fine with them trading it I was not that high on Gordon at 1

[JonFromVA]

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

Not saying he wasnt but it was made for the Wolves so who knows what they would have done. Probably the same thing in a trade for somebody else. I recall Parler not wanting to work out for the Cavs and wanted the Bucks. Good thing they didnt draft him with his injury laden career.

And Embiid had just suffered an injury and was going to be out for most if not all of his rookie season. I couldn't see Gilbert making that call when he was trying to win and the best way to do that was for the biggest upgrade to the roster possible, Wiggins over Deng, rather than Parker over TT/Bennett which I'm not sure if they were done with after his rookie season or still hoped he could get it together, but it really didn't matter since Love was available at that point with LeBron.

One of my assumptions is that we're the "perfect GM" basically beamed back from the future knowing what we know - we just don't have LeBron.

So, we can choose to draft Embiid and aim for the lottery if we wish, or bypass the consensus top-3 and try to build a better with a later pick. For instance, Cavs could take Jokic with the first overall pick, or hey why not trade back for him and pickup some other reasonable asset.

The interesting thing about that isn't the hindsight cherry picking but the future implication ... that our best move in a few weeks may turn out to be to draft a guy not even expected to go in the top-5 let alone the first round. I just can't see any way Koby Altman would be allowed to do that.

[Harper4Ferry?]

I think Kyrie turns down an extension and forces a trade if LeBron isn't coming back. At that point I think we'd be trading him to maybe the Pacers for George Hill and some draft picks. Granted they could have played chicken with him and kept him around for 2 more years. But I don't think he's as big of a building block as we would hope.

[Revenged25]

Not saying he wasnt but it was made for the Wolves so who knows what they would have done. Probably the same thing in a trade for somebody else. I recall Parler not wanting to work out for the Cavs and wanted the Bucks. Good thing they didnt draft him with his injury laden career.

And Embiid had just suffered an injury and was going to be out for most if not all of his rookie season. I couldn't see Gilbert making that call when he was trying to win and the best way to do that was for the biggest upgrade to the roster possible, Wiggins over Deng, rather than Parker over TT/Bennett which I'm not sure if they were done with after his rookie season or still hoped he could get it together, but it really didn't matter since Love was available at that point with LeBron.

One of my assumptions is that we're the "perfect GM" basically beamed back from the future knowing what we know - we just don't have LeBron.

So, we can choose to draft Embiid and aim for the lottery if we wish, or bypass the consensus top-3 and try to build a better with a later pick. For instance, Cavs could take Jokic with the first overall pick, or hey why not trade back for him and pickup some other reasonable asset.

The interesting thing about that isn't the hindsight cherry picking but the future implication ... that our best move in a few weeks may turn out to be to draft a guy not even expected to go in the top-5 let alone the first round. I just can't see any way Koby Altman would be allowed to do that.

That's why I said if we are going back into the past to be the perfect GM I'm not starting at the LeBron pick, I'm starting in 2011 and I'm taking Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard. In 2012 I'm taking Dame. In 2013 I'm taking Giannis, and in 2014 ok I'm taking Embiid. But each one of those would affect our wins/losses differently.

Actually Klay/Kawhi probably would've had a similar record to so we'd still get the #4 pick the following year for Dame. But how would Dame/Klay/Kawhi look at that point? Klay would be a great defender + 3pt shooter, Dame would be Dame, and Kawhi was probably still a plus defender and working as the 3rd option like he was on the Spurs. But we'd probably miss the playoffs. So yeah 2013 I'd take Giannis but he would require years to develop as he'd be the back-up PF for now. 2014 they probably squeeze into the playoffs on the back of Dame/Klay/Kawhi, so I'm taking Joker. Cavs now have Dame/Klay/Kawhi/Giannis/Joker

[JonFromVA]

Wiggins was who Minnesota wanted back in a potential KLove deal that already been discussed under the table and imo why he was the pick over Jabari and Embiid because of that reason more than a situation where what if Lebron had not come back and Wiggins was the sf.
That team was not as promising as the current one though I can say that with a lot of confidence

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

Wiggins was considered the safer pick before it was discovered Embiid had a new injury. Dan didn't want to throw away a season (or more) when there was a viable pick right there.

And like I mentioned, the Cavs had above-the-table negotiations with the TWolves regarding Love well in advance, that's how they knew what Flip wanted. If they knew James was returning too they would have pulled the trigger on the agreed deal, not left Wiggins hanging for months, and likely taken care of clearing up cap space for James we ended up dealing with by trading future picks.

[JonFromVA]

I think Kyrie turns down an extension and forces a trade if LeBron isn't coming back. At that point I think we'd be trading him to maybe the Pacers for George Hill and some draft picks. Granted they could have played chicken with him and kept him around for 2 more years. But I don't think he's as big of a building block as we would hope.

Higher chance of him turning down the extension if he knew LeBron was coming back ... Kyrie was told the Cavs were going to be his team and we were going to build around him.

[JonFromVA]

And Embiid had just suffered an injury and was going to be out for most if not all of his rookie season. I couldn't see Gilbert making that call when he was trying to win and the best way to do that was for the biggest upgrade to the roster possible, Wiggins over Deng, rather than Parker over TT/Bennett which I'm not sure if they were done with after his rookie season or still hoped he could get it together, but it really didn't matter since Love was available at that point with LeBron.

One of my assumptions is that we're the "perfect GM" basically beamed back from the future knowing what we know - we just don't have LeBron.

So, we can choose to draft Embiid and aim for the lottery if we wish, or bypass the consensus top-3 and try to build a better with a later pick. For instance, Cavs could take Jokic with the first overall pick, or hey why not trade back for him and pickup some other reasonable asset.

The interesting thing about that isn't the hindsight cherry picking but the future implication ... that our best move in a few weeks may turn out to be to draft a guy not even expected to go in the top-5 let alone the first round. I just can't see any way Koby Altman would be allowed to do that.

That's why I said if we are going back into the past to be the perfect GM I'm not starting at the LeBron pick, I'm starting in 2011 and I'm taking Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard. In 2012 I'm taking Dame. In 2013 I'm taking Giannis, and in 2014 ok I'm taking Embiid. But each one of those would affect our wins/losses differently.

Actually Klay/Kawhi probably would've had a similar record to so we'd still get the #4 pick the following year for Dame. But how would Dame/Klay/Kawhi look at that point? Klay would be a great defender + 3pt shooter, Dame would be Dame, and Kawhi was probably still a plus defender and working as the 3rd option like he was on the Spurs. But we'd probably miss the playoffs. So yeah 2013 I'd take Giannis but he would require years to develop as he'd be the back-up PF for now. 2014 they probably squeeze into the playoffs on the back of Dame/Klay/Kawhi, so I'm taking Joker. Cavs now have Dame/Klay/Kawhi/Giannis/Joker

Unfortunately my time machine doesn't travel before 2014.

Really the question here is examining what it takes to push a team that's been tanking for a few years and facing decisions on extensions like the 2014 team and our 2021 team in to contention. It sure wouldn't take a super-team to be competitive in the playoffs right now. The Clippers just won a game featuring PG13, Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris? Geez.

[Revenged25]

One of my assumptions is that we're the "perfect GM" basically beamed back from the future knowing what we know - we just don't have LeBron.

So, we can choose to draft Embiid and aim for the lottery if we wish, or bypass the consensus top-3 and try to build a better with a later pick. For instance, Cavs could take Jokic with the first overall pick, or hey why not trade back for him and pickup some other reasonable asset.

The interesting thing about that isn't the hindsight cherry picking but the future implication ... that our best move in a few weeks may turn out to be to draft a guy not even expected to go in the top-5 let alone the first round. I just can't see any way Koby Altman would be allowed to do that.

That's why I said if we are going back into the past to be the perfect GM I'm not starting at the LeBron pick, I'm starting in 2011 and I'm taking Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard. In 2012 I'm taking Dame. In 2013 I'm taking Giannis, and in 2014 ok I'm taking Embiid. But each one of those would affect our wins/losses differently.

Actually Klay/Kawhi probably would've had a similar record to so we'd still get the #4 pick the following year for Dame. But how would Dame/Klay/Kawhi look at that point? Klay would be a great defender + 3pt shooter, Dame would be Dame, and Kawhi was probably still a plus defender and working as the 3rd option like he was on the Spurs. But we'd probably miss the playoffs. So yeah 2013 I'd take Giannis but he would require years to develop as he'd be the back-up PF for now. 2014 they probably squeeze into the playoffs on the back of Dame/Klay/Kawhi, so I'm taking Joker. Cavs now have Dame/Klay/Kawhi/Giannis/Joker

Unfortunately my time machine doesn't travel before 2014.

Really the question here is examining what it takes to push a team that's been tanking for a few years and facing decisions on extensions like the 2014 team and our 2021 team in to contention. It sure wouldn't take a super-team to be competitive in the playoffs right now. The Clippers just won a game featuring PG13, Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris? Geez.

Well in that case I trade Kyrie to Phoenix for #14, #18, and #27, '15 top 10 protected 1st

#1-Zach Lavine PG/SG
#14-Bogdan Bogdanovic SG
#18-Jerami Grant SF/PF
#27-Nikola Jokic C
#33-Joe Harris SG/SF

PG-Lavine/Jack/Delly
SG-Bogdan/Waiters
SF-Grant/Harris/Sergey
PF-TT/Bennett
C-Joker/Andy/Zeller

[Stillwater]

Wiggins was who Minnesota wanted back in a potential KLove deal that already been discussed under the table and imo why he was the pick over Jabari and Embiid because of that reason more than a situation where what if Lebron had not come back and Wiggins was the sf.
That team was not as promising as the current one though I can say that with a lot of confidence

I think Wiggins still might've been the pick. He filled a need and was a great prospect in his own right.

Wiggins was considered the safer pick before it was discovered Embiid had a new injury. Dan didn't want to throw away a season (or more) when there was a viable pick right there.

And like I mentioned, the Cavs had above-the-table negotiations with the TWolves regarding Love well in advance, that's how they knew what Flip wanted. If they knew James was returning too they would have pulled the trigger on the agreed deal, not left Wiggins hanging for months, and likely taken care of clearing up cap space for James we ended up dealing with by trading future picks.

Dude there is such a thing as a moratorium

[Stillwater]

One of my assumptions is that we're the "perfect GM" basically beamed back from the future knowing what we know - we just don't have LeBron.

So, we can choose to draft Embiid and aim for the lottery if we wish, or bypass the consensus top-3 and try to build a better with a later pick. For instance, Cavs could take Jokic with the first overall pick, or hey why not trade back for him and pickup some other reasonable asset.

The interesting thing about that isn't the hindsight cherry picking but the future implication ... that our best move in a few weeks may turn out to be to draft a guy not even expected to go in the top-5 let alone the first round. I just can't see any way Koby Altman would be allowed to do that.

That's why I said if we are going back into the past to be the perfect GM I'm not starting at the LeBron pick, I'm starting in 2011 and I'm taking Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard. In 2012 I'm taking Dame. In 2013 I'm taking Giannis, and in 2014 ok I'm taking Embiid. But each one of those would affect our wins/losses differently.

Actually Klay/Kawhi probably would've had a similar record to so we'd still get the #4 pick the following year for Dame. But how would Dame/Klay/Kawhi look at that point? Klay would be a great defender + 3pt shooter, Dame would be Dame, and Kawhi was probably still a plus defender and working as the 3rd option like he was on the Spurs. But we'd probably miss the playoffs. So yeah 2013 I'd take Giannis but he would require years to develop as he'd be the back-up PF for now. 2014 they probably squeeze into the playoffs on the back of Dame/Klay/Kawhi, so I'm taking Joker. Cavs now have Dame/Klay/Kawhi/Giannis/Joker

Unfortunately my time machine doesn't travel before 2014.

Really the question here is examining what it takes to push a team that's been tanking for a few years and facing decisions on extensions like the 2014 team and our 2021 team in to contention. It sure wouldn't take a super-team to be competitive in the playoffs right now. The Clippers just won a game featuring PG13, Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris? Geez.

I think if this org pushes win now motives out of impatience they deserve to be mediocre first round or play in ext rosters picking in the late lottery late teens for the next 4 seasons ...until they are right back in the high lottery all over again.
If Koby has any nads at all he will not trade Sexton for roster fit reasons or trade the 3rd overall for some win now but not contend veteran asshol

[jbk1234]

It's very difficult to say how it would've all worked out. We traded two prospects drafted in the first round (Zeller and Karasev) and attached a first to Jack just to clear cap for LBJ to sign.

We traded Wiggins, Bennett, and that Miami 1st, for Love. That's two firsts and four guys drafted in the first round.

Then we traded Waiters and two firsts to bring in Mozgov, Shump, and JR. That's 4 firsts and five guys drafted in the first round just to put the team together.

We traded back out of a first the year we drafted Cedi in order to avoid additional tax penalties. Attached a first to AV after his injuries for similar reasons. Finally, traded a first for Sexton and Nance. Even if you exclude the protected Korver first as it turned into two seconds (which we doled out like candy), we shipped out 7 first round picks (I honestly think I might be missing one) and five guys drafted in the first round, four of whom were drafted in the lottery.

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[Stillwater]

It's very difficult to say how it would've all worked out. We traded two prospects drafted in the first round (Zeller and Karasev) and attached a first to Jack just to clear cap for LBJ to sign.

We traded Wiggins, Bennett, and that Miami 1st, for Love. That's two firsts and four guys drafted in the first round.

Then we traded Waiters and two firsts to bring in Mozgov, Shump, and JR. That's 4 firsts and five guys drafted in the first round just to put the team together.

We traded back out of a first the year we drafted Cedi in order to avoid additional tax penalties. Attached a first to AV after his injuries for similar reasons. Finally, traded a first for Sexton and Nance. Even if you exclude the protected Korver first as it turned into two seconds (which we doled out like candy), we shipped out 7 first round picks (I honestly think I might be missing one) and five guys drafted in the first round, four of whom were drafted in the lottery.

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yep and the Cavs dont do any of that with out Lebron James walking through the door.
I dont know that they actually know what to do to build this team, but I stand firm Even if they like DG more they should have DG on the trade block to break up Sexland if they dont see it working given Sexton is not worth anything right now and DG is.
But it could be DG isn't worth much either after only 1 avg starting guard season in the NBA.
Maybe they will see KLove moving out as worth it to sell cheap on Sexton...but the regret it down the road if not only KLove suddenly looks like Nets Blake on another team, and Sexton uses that new chip on his shoulder to be a 5 time 6th man of the year over the course of his career.
I think they need to give this roster more time no matter how impatient the fanbase as a whole is about losing as if they don;t know what that is like with the Browns sucking for longer than any other CLE team.
I would bet Sexland can work just as good as any moves they would make this season if they left it the f alone. But if they must move on , trading DG would be easier to justify.

[jbk1234]

It's very difficult to say how it would've all worked out. We traded two prospects drafted in the first round (Zeller and Karasev) and attached a first to Jack just to clear cap for LBJ to sign.

We traded Wiggins, Bennett, and that Miami 1st, for Love. That's two firsts and four guys drafted in the first round.

Then we traded Waiters and two firsts to bring in Mozgov, Shump, and JR. That's 4 firsts and five guys drafted in the first round just to put the team together.

We traded back out of a first the year we drafted Cedi in order to avoid additional tax penalties. Attached a first to AV after his injuries for similar reasons. Finally, traded a first for Sexton and Nance. Even if you exclude the protected Korver first as it turned into two seconds (which we doled out like candy), we shipped out 7 first round picks (I honestly think I might be missing one) and five guys drafted in the first round, four of whom were drafted in the lottery.

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yep and the Cavs dont do any of that with out Lebron James walking through the door.
I dont know that they actually know what to do to build this team, but I stand firm Even if they like DG more they should have DG on the trade block to break up Sexland if they dont see it working given Sexton is not worth anything right now and DG is.
But it could be DG isn't worth much either after only 1 avg starting guard season in the NBA.
Maybe they will see KLove moving out as worth it to sell cheap on Sexton...but the regret it down the road if not only KLove suddenly looks like Nets Blake on another team, and Sexton uses that new chip on his shoulder to be a 5 time 6th man of the year over the course of his career.
I think they need to give this roster more time no matter how impatient the fanbase as a whole is about losing as if they don;t know what that is like with the Browns sucking for longer than any other CLE team.
I would bet Sexland can work just as good as any moves they would make this season if they left it the f alone. But if they must move on , trading DG would be easier to justify.

We obviously disagree on which one they should be sending out and I'm not interested in relitigating here. This is a thread about another topic.

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