U19 World Cup Preview: Team Canada featuring Elijah Fisher, Caleb Houstan, Ben Mathurin, and more

[Hair Canada]

I know we’re in the midst of a historically important qualifying tournament for the Canadian SMNT, which could see us back in the Olympics for the first time in more than 20 years. But this Saturday, another Canadian team will begin playing in what is arguably the most important and high-profile youth basketball event, featuring some of the most promising next-generation talents in Canada and the world. So I’m going to talk here about what we might expect from this tournament, focusing of course on Team Canada.

A bit of history first: As every Canadian basketball fan knows, four years ago, in 2017, Team Canada won a historical gold medal in this U19 WC competition, its first-ever at any level. But how have we been doing in this U19 championship otherwise? Actually, not so well. Historically, with the exception of that 2017 gold medal (which, let’s admit it, was a bit of a fluke), Canada has been significantly underperforming in this age group. U19 championships have been going on for 40 years now (used to be every 4 years). But besides the 2017 championship, Canada has NEVER won a medal, even with our so-called “golden generation” being around for more than a decade now. In fact, even when we were able to put up decent teams, we never made it past the QF. In short, the gold medal in 2017 was an absolute aberration.


Barrett the MVP of the 2017 U19 WC in Cairo


So what’s different this time around?

Well, to cut right to the chase, this team might be one of the most talented teams we’ve put together at any youth level and some might even say the most talented ever. Now, to be sure, it has some formidable competition. Only from the last decade:
• The U17 team in the 2010 WC that won the bronze medal and featured Wiggins, Bennett, Pangos, Pierre, and Hanlan.
• The U18 FIBA Americas team from 2012 with Wiggins, Lyles, Tyler Ennis, Duane Notice, Ratahn-Mayes, and Kaza Keane (finished only 3rd).
• The U16 FIBA Americas team from 2015 that had Barrett, A. Nembhard, Simi, Iggy, Carr, and Llwellyn (finished 2nd)
• The U16 FIBA Americas team from 2019 with Houstan, Sharpe, Boakye, and R. Nembhard (finished 2nd).
• And let’s not forget about the 2016 U18 FIBA Americas team that featured SGA, NAW, Brissett, Kigab, and Wigginton (finished 2nd).

So you can take your pick (mine might be the last one on this list). But you’ll note that none of these previous teams played at the prestigious U19 world championship.

But wait, aren’t we forgetting someone? Just four years ago, in 2017, a Canadian team shocked the world by winning the World Cup with an amazing win over the US. So wasn’t that team the most talented? Well, not quite. While certainly over-achieving, that team was actually not that impressive talent-wise. The second-best player on that team after the 17yo Barrett was Abu Kigab, who was selected to the tournament first team but didn’t quite live up to the expectations consequently. The second-best prospect was probably Nate Darling, a borderline NBA rotation player who did not play that well back then. The major bigs were Prince Oduru and Amidou Bamba, who TOGETHER put up 8 points and 8 rebounds per game… Of note, that’s not because this was not a talented generation. That team was missing for various reasons (take a deep breath): SGA, NAW, Brissett, Dort, Shittu, Brazdeikis, Akot, Lllewellyn, and Nembhard.


TEAM CANADA STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Okay, now back to the present. Despite missing three potential NBA talents in Josh Primo (a top-20 player in the class of 2020 and a potential first-round pick in next month’s draft), Shaedon Sharpe (a top-10 player in the class of 2022), and Enoch Boakye (a top-30 talent in the class of 2021), Canada can still put up a starting-5 lineup of players who ALL have at least a decent chance to make it to the NBA in the next few years (Nembhard, Mathurin, Fisher, Houstan, and Bediako). Two or three of these might even be lottery picks. The bench is not as talented but still features a few guys with a high ceiling, who could also develop into very good players with time.

So unlike the team from two years ago, led by AJ Lawson and Kareem Mane, I’m much more excited about our team this time around. That 2019 team had a fairly talented but very erratic backcourt. Both Lawson and Mane had a couple of good games but also a few horrendous showings and Primo was too young to have a real influence in limited minutes. And the frontcourt was quite unimpressive, with the young and inexperienced Charles Bediako clearly over-performing, but others, like his older brother Jaden and Tyrese Samuel, only showing occasional flashes. That team was also quite bad in the shooting department. And if you go back to my preview from before that WC started, you’ll see that this was all there to see even before the first game.

How are things looking this time around?

Well, it’s a whole different ball game. Looking for some shooting? Ben Mathurin was one of the most accurate rookies in college basketball last year, shooting 42% from behind the arc? Or how about Caleb Houstan, selected Florida player of the year despite playing in the same team as two of the top-5 prospects in the class of 2022, Jalen Duren and Dariq Whitehead? Houstan is considered one of the best shooters in all of high school, with a beautiful stroke, which he perfected over the last two years.


Houstan shooting


Wings? We’re exceptionally strong and deep here, including a few of future leaguers. In addition to Houstan and Mathurin, we’ll also finally get to see Elijah Fisher wearing the red and white. He’ll be two years younger than the competition (similar to Barrett in 2017), but already has a grown man’s body and is very athletic and physical, with good ball skills. Add O-Max, Hill, and Kalambay, and you get an embarrassment of riches, with 6 players who have both size and skill to play 2 through 4.


Fisher


Bigs? How about a 7’5, 290 center who just dominated oponents in college (Zach Edey)? Or maybe our best big from two years ago, 7-footer (7’4 wingspan) Charles Bediako, with two more years of experience, skill development, and physical growth under his belt? And from the bench (if he even makes it to the final roster) we can bring another 7-footer, 250lbs center, with a 7’5 wingspan in Javonte Brown-Ferguson. Dominic Parolin and Nana Owusu-Anane (again, if they even make it) are not as physically gifted, but both bring more skill and offensive finesse if and when they see the court.


Edey


Size? Even beyond the 3 7-footers, this is a really big team. Except for Nembhard (6’1) and Duke (6’4; good size for a PG), there’s not a single player on this team who’s smaller than 6’7! And many of these guys are not just tall; they’re also long.


Athleticism? Shaedon Sharpe would have been nice to have in this department (and in general). But Mathurin and Fisher are elite-level athletes. And others like O-Max and Kalambay are also high flyers, with a mix of explosiveness and strength.


Mathurin with the hops


High-level college/high school/FIBA Experience? We’ve got guys who competed at the highest levels of college basketball (Mathurin; Edey and a bit of O-Max, Parolin, and Brown-Ferguson). Others played at the highest levels of high school basketball (Houstan and Nembhard were both starters for the best team in high school basketball, while Bediako played for powerhouse IMG). And Bediako (3 tournaments), Houstan (2), and Nembhard (1) also have important experience with FIBA tournaments, far from obvious with no tournaments in 2020.


So, does this team have any weaknesses?

Yes, it does. In particular, I would point to the depth at the guard positions. Behind a very reliable starting PG in Ryan Nembhard, there’s only Kyle Duke, a nice player but more of a combo-guard in my mind and lacking any previous FIBA experience. How did we get there? Well, Canada has few remarkable PGs in the class of 2021. And the next best natural PG in 2022, Jaden Clayton, seems to have preferred to play AAU basketball this summer, alongside Shaedon Sharpe (and we can also add combo guard Josiah Davis to this list).


Ryan Nembhard


This is why I’m a bit surprised that 2022 Jefferson Monegro or maybe someone from 2021 like Darius DeAveiro, Kyree Thompson, or Josh Bascoe did not make it into the final roster for some extra PG backup. It’s going to put quite a bit of pressure on Nembhard, who’s not our best player but might the most important one on this roster, and hopefully, he stays healthy (Duke will also be very important). While Mathurin and Fisher can play SG and even handle the ball a little, neither can be trusted to run the show and make good decisions under pressure. So this team might be somewhat susceptible to on-ball full-court pressure against strong teams, especially when Nembhard is sitting.

I’m also a bit worried about shooting beyond Houstan and Mathurin. Kalambay, Fisher, and O-Max (and maybe also Hill) can all shoot it from deep but none of them is a reliable shooter. And the same goes for Nembhard and Duke. That’s why I’m a bit surprised that Elijah Mahi didn’t make it to the final roster (or DJ Jackson, though I’m not sure he was available). But eventually, you have to trust the coaches here, as they had an opportunity to see these guys and choose the ones they thought would be most helpful in this tournament. Hopefully, with our firepower on the wings, our slashing, and the BIGS in the paint, we won’t be depending on the shooting.

Okay, I went pretty long already, so I’ll dive deeper into the roster tomorrow.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Amazing job as always, Hair! Thanks for all of the work you put in to enrich the discussions on Canadian basketball in this forum. From a long time Canadian basketball observer and supporter, it's much appreciated.

[ItsDanger]

I'd say this roster may have the most talent for U19 to date. I expect Mathurin to dominate, he's very quick and can really shoot it. Fisher will be interesting to watch here.

[frumble]

Hair Canada,
Thanks for another fantastic preview. Your contributions are invaluable.

Canada plays Lithuania on Saturday, Japan on Sunday, and Senegal on Tuesday.

Anyone know the TV situation? FIBA YouTube?

[Hair Canada]

Hair Canada,
Thanks for another fantastic preview. Your contributions are invaluable.

Canada plays Lithuania on Saturday, Japan on Sunday, and Senegal on Tuesday.

Anyone know the TV situation? FIBA YouTube?

Yes, FIBA Youtube.

[mojo13]

Great work as usual HairCanada. I really enjoy this.


I did hear Canada beat Latvia 84-53 in a a warm-up game today, but no other details found.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

The better this gets, the bigger our advantage.

[Pooh_Jeter]

Hair Canada,
Thanks for another fantastic preview. Your contributions are invaluable.

Canada plays Lithuania on Saturday, Japan on Sunday, and Senegal on Tuesday.

Anyone know the TV situation? FIBA YouTube?

Yes, FIBA Youtube.

I believe it is also streaming on DAZN.

[Hair Canada]

Great work as usual HairCanada. I really enjoy this.


I did hear Canada beat Latvia 84-53 in a a warm-up game today, but no other details found.

That's a nice score that demonstrates how talented this group is. I have high hopes for them.

I'm curious, who would be your pick for the "most talented Canadian youth team ever"? Probably one of the above?

[mojo13]

Great work as usual HairCanada. I really enjoy this.


I did hear Canada beat Latvia 84-53 in a a warm-up game today, but no other details found.

That's a nice score that demonstrates how talented this group is. I have high hopes for them.

I'm curious, who would be your pick for the "most talented Canadian youth team ever"? Probably one of the above?

I don't know...

Who are the contenders?

2010 U17 World Cup - Bronze Medal team is the one I always think of, maybe because it was the one that first got me hooked. Talented and successful
Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, Kevin Pangos, DeShawn Pierre, Oliver Hanlan, Duane Notice, Negus Webster Chan
Two Number 1 overall NBA draft picks, three total NBA draft picks, three guys who made it to the EuroLeague

2016 U18 FIBA Americas - is another one
SGA (who wasnt that good at the time), NAW, Brissett, Nate Darling, Lindell Wigginton, Akot, Kigab, Blair
They almost took down the USA (had a lead in the fourth as aI recall but couldnt hold on (didnt have much inisde)

As you mention above - there are others, but those two kind of pop for me.

[TheFutureMM]

Great work as usual HairCanada. I really enjoy this.


I did hear Canada beat Latvia 84-53 in a a warm-up game today, but no other details found.

That's a nice score that demonstrates how talented this group is. I have high hopes for them.

I'm curious, who would be your pick for the "most talented Canadian youth team ever"? Probably one of the above?

Not Mojo but I agree with your assessment that the "2016 U18 FIBA Americas team that featured SGA, NAW, Brissett, Kigab, and Wigginton" was probably the best cadet team we have ever fielded and definitely the best I have ever watched.

I remember watching the Gold Medal game against the States (probably have game-time posts in one of the archived Team Canada threads) just thinking that the MPJ reminded me of Paul George and that I couldn't figure out who was going to be better; Shai or Nickeil.

Fun fact, we lost by 15 but that doesn't really capture how competitive that game was. We were in striking distance at half (down maybe 4 or 5 points) and it took Shai getting injured + MPJ looking like young Paul George (back injury has limited his athleticism imo) to really put a nail in the coffin for us. Looking at it now, it's kind of wild how good that US team was. Trae Young, Markelle Fultz (pre-yips), Michael Porter Jr (pre-back injury), Jarrett Allen, PJ Washington, Kevin Huerter, Mo Bamba, etc.

[mojo13]

I thought we had a lead going into the 4th vs the US and just finally got overwhelmed inside.

[TheFutureMM]

I thought we had a lead going into the 4th vs the US and just finally got overwhelmed inside.

That sounds familiar but was that at the U16 level? 2015 perhaps? Just going off of boxscores.

The team that had NAW and Shai were down 4 at half-time - can't remember if Shai got hurt in the first half or early second though...

[Hair Canada]

I thought we had a lead going into the 4th vs the US and just finally got overwhelmed inside.

That sounds familiar but was that at the U16 level? 2015 perhaps? Just going off of boxscores.

The team that had NAW and Shai were down 4 at half-time - can't remember if Shai got hurt in the first half or early second though...

Yeah, in the 2015 U16 (Barrett, Simi, Iggy, and the gang) we were leading at the half but got crashed in the last quarter. If my memory is correct, in the 2016 U18 we never quite led it but stayed really close (Kigab of all players got really hot from 3) till almost the end and then Washington, Porter, and the others pounded us inside with Brissett already out of breath.

Anyway, fun memories. Hope this U19 team gives us some more of these (oh, how I would love to have Primo and Sharpe there for some extra guard depth).

[TravisScott55]

Is anyone besides Fisher a legit NBA prospect?

[TheFutureMM]

Is anyone besides Fisher a legit NBA prospect?

Caleb Houstan is a 5-Star prospect with all of the major recruiting websites. Historically most 5-Star prospects make the league in some capacity. Add that his calling card is his shooting ability and something would have to go terribly wrong at Michigan for him to not be in the draft after one year.

[Hair Canada]

Time for part 2 of this preview -- a detailed overview of the Canadian roster.


ROSTER OVERVIEW BY POSITION

Note that there are 14 players listed below, as in typical fashion, Canada is one of the last teams in the competition to not yet officially announce its final roster for the competition. I would expect the two alternates to come from the list of bigs below (probably one of the last four)

Guards: Ryan Nembhard; Kyle Duke
Wings: Ben Mathurin; Caleb Houstan; Elijah Fisher; Olivier Maxence Prosper; Enoch Kalambay; Khalfani Hill;
Bigs: Zach Edey; Charles Bediako; Javonte Brown-Ferguson; Nana Owusu-Anane; Dominic Parolin; Thomas Ndong


ROSTER BREAKDOWN

I’ll start with my presumed starting 5 (or at least closing 5):

Ryan Nembhard (18yo 6’1 PG; 170lbs; Creighton commit). I love the younger Nembhard’s skills and mentality, and in some ways, I think he’s more talented than Andrew. His passing, game IQ, feel for the game, and floor-general skills are on par with those of his older brother. but he’s a more aggressive player than Andrew was at this age, and a better and quicker athlete, who attacks the basket more consistently, looking for his own shot when open but also making the right unselfish reads. Can score from all three levels, though his range and consistency from deep still need some work. Not sure he’s an NBA prospect at 6’1 (at best) with mediocre length and strength, also not being an explosive athlete or a lights-out shooter. He’s also very good with the ball, but not spectacular. But with his great feel and passing skills, he might still get a chance if the shooting gets more consistent. And, as I said above, for now, he is probably this U19 team’s most important player (though not the best); the only one who is truly irreplaceable.

Bennedict Mathurin (19yo; 6’6 SG/wing; 6’8 wingspan; 200lbs; Arizona sophomore). I wrote before the start of the college season that Mathurin was my favorite player from the class of 2020 (including Josh Primo) and I’m probably still there although it’s very close. He showed this year at Arizona that he has what it takes to get to the next level but decided to go back for another year, and if he can improve some of his weaknesses he could be a lottery pick in 2022. An excellent athlete with an impressive combination of explosiveness and strength. Also showed excellent shooting at Arizona, with great accuracy (42%) from 3 on a pretty high volume. I like his competitive spirit and motor, which also make him a very good rebounder for a guard/SF. So where should he still improve? Perhaps most importantly in creating for himself and for others off the bounce. His handle is not tight enough, which led to some difficulties in getting to the rim at Arizona, and while he can certainly pass, he didn’t show much of it last season. His defense was also not great, but I think that’s more a matter of time and growth because he has both the tools and the desire to improve. I expect Mathurin to be our leading scorer in this tournament, together with Houstan, and play mostly as a shooting guard, where this team is fairly weak (At Arizona he played mostly on the wing and off the ball).


Mathurin


Elijah Fisher (17yo; 6’7 SF; 6’10 wingspan; 215lbs). I wrote something like 1k words about Fisher a couple of months ago, with a deep dive into his strengths and weaknesses, so I don’t see the need to repeat all of it (for those interested, you can find it here):

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2041494

So just a quick summary for those who don’t feel like reading the whole thing: Fisher’s physical profile is every scout’s dream. An excellent, explosive, and powerful athlete, who’s also long, with big steps, very good speed, and tremendous body control. A real freight train on the break and in transition, attacking the basket relentlessly and finishing well with either hand. Also shows passion for the game, the mental toughness to seek contact, and the physical strength to finish well with this contact. On the flip side, he’s also very right-hand dominant and tends to get tunnel-vision and charge into a wall. His handle is not bad but can be quite shaky at times, lacking a degree of shiftiness, and his shooting touch is also a bit questionable. On the defensive end of the floor, he has great potential, with his athleticism, strength, and mobility, though his effort level still fluctuates at this point.

For the current tournament, I expect him to be able to make an impact with his physical tools, somewhat similar to how Barrett was able to show up 4 years ago. But there are other dominant scorers on this team (mainly the two guys above and below), so Fisher won’t have to carry such a significant load and we shouldn’t expect him to have the same kind of impact as RJ did. It should be interesting to see him play alongside other very good (and older) players and contribute without overdoing it.


Fisher


Caleb Houstan (18.5yo 6’8 SF; 205lbs; Michigan commit). One of the most talented young Canadians out there. From a physical profile standpoint, Houstan is actually not the most impressive prospect. He has good height for a wing prospect, but a rather narrow frame, and what looks like an average wingspan. He is also not the most explosive athlete (more smooth) and doesn’t overwhelm opponents with his athleticism or strength, though I think he’s stronger and especially tougher than he appears. But he has great basketball instincts, feel, and mentality, continuously improving throughout the years, to the point where he was the best player on the best team in American high school last year. his shooting is elite with a smooth elegant stroke and considerable versatility (catch-and-shoot; off screens in movement; pull-ups). Also has a good nose for opportunistic scoring and getting to the line. The handle and passing are also progressing and I really like his defensive feel. I think he can play alongside Fisher and Mathurin, where all three can switch and handle opponents 2-4 with their size and fluidity, while also all being able to create on offense and put pressure on opposing defenses.


Houstan


Charles Bediako (19yo 6’11 C; 7’4 wingspan; 215lbs; Alabama commit). I might actually prefer Zach Edey to start right now, but I suspect Bediako with more FIBA experience, a bit more switchability, and a better ability to stay out of foul trouble will get the nod as the starter. The younger of the two Bediako brothers was our best big in the 2019 u19 campaign, which was quite a surprise because he really took some time to come into his own. As a youngster, he flashed some potential but lacked strength and coordination. But he’s made considerable strides over the last few years. Can still look a bit awkward on the court at times, lacking some polish, strength, and explosiveness. I also haven’t seen him create his own offense much and not sure how much he can shoot outside of the paint though there were signs he started to develop that a bit. But he’s long, fluid, and has an excellent motor and activity level, which get him some opportunistic scoring. And on defense, he can match up with big bodies in the paint (though maybe not as well as Edey), while also being able to switch some in the P&R and provide rim protection.


Bediako


Others likely to have a significant role:

Kyle Duke (19yo 6’4 combo guard; North Carolina A & T commit). Duke is a nice combo guard with good scoring skills, who can put points on the board from all three levels and also create for others. When he was only 14 he already played high school basketball at St. Michael’s, alongside Danilo Djuricic, and looked like a real prodigy. But then he stagnated a bit, physically and otherwise, as others caught up. Moved to play in the US last year and it seems like his game has grown nicely over the last two years. Not an NBA talent I think, as he’s somewhat limited athletically, not a great shooter, and also not an elite distributor. But he’s good enough in all of these to be a nice college player. And on this team, he’s going to be very important, as the only true guard besides Nembhard. I expect him to play many minutes and curious to see the progress he’s made since the last time I watched him play entire games.


Duke


Enoch Kalambay (18.5yo; 6’6 SF from Gatineau, QC; Tallahasse commit). A good and powerful athlete and a talented slasher who can finish above the rim with ease. His shooting can be streaky, but he definitely has range and decent touch. A lefty with good attack mentality, which worked quite nicely against high school opponents. Like Duke, he’s probably not an NBA prospect (doesn’t have the size, consistent shooting, or skill that would get him to this level). But still, a very nice player who should eventually have a good college career. Could see good minutes, given his level of physical and mental maturity and how short we are in the guard positions (he’s more of a SF, but we’ll probably have 3 wings on the court much of the time).


Kalambay


Olivier Maxence-Prosper (19yo; 6’8 SF; 7’0 wingspan; 220lbs; from Montreal, QC; transferred from Clemson to Marquette this summer). O-Max is a lengthy wing who can do a bit of everything. A really good athlete with big steps, great mobility, and good bunnies, who can easily slide into the PF position with his size and athleticism. Though the physical profile was always intriguing, he’s made some tremendous leaps and bounds in his game over the last couple of years. When I first watched him, playing for a talented U15 QC team that also featured Mathurin, he was a skinny boy who could hardly dribble and did more damage than good. Now, he’s a powerful athlete with skill and a potential NBA prospect. He can shoot it from distance (though still not very consistently) and his combination of size, athleticism, and developing skill is the sort of thing that NBA teams covet, as long as the outside shot continues to come along. That said, he had a rather disappointing year at Clemson. Didn’t play much and when he did, lacked confidence and did not really get the freedom to operate and show his strengths. I still believe in him and I think he can be really important for this U19 team. Wouldn’t be surprised if he even gets to start at PF while Houstan slides to the SF and Fisher comes off the bench.


O-Max


Zach Edey (19yo; 7’5 C; 7’7 wingspan; 290lbs; Purdue Sophomore). The biggest surprise of any Canadian in college last year and one of my favorite guys to watch. Everyone knew he was big. But not how big and how good he can be, especially considering he just started playing basketball 4 years ago. Edey was expected to be a redshirt last year or perhaps get a few minutes off the bench at the end of blowout games. He blew these expectations out of the water already in his first two games, showing incredible dominance in the paint. And despite coming from the bench behind one of the most dominant centers in college (Trevion Williams, who was part of the fantastic U19 US gold team two years ago), Edey played 15 minutes a game, with impressive production, flashing considerable basketball talent for a guy his size. Edey has soft hands, knows how to use his body well, tries to dunk everything, and already has a nice hook shot in his arsenal. He even shoots well from the line, suggesting some potential for developing an outside shot with time.

Edey is not a perfect prospect of course. Like most guys his size (though there are not that many), his movement is a bit slow and staying with the P&R is a real challenge. Also quite foul prone, as he’s still developing his defensive coordination, quicker decision making, and better reading of the game. But I think the international game, where you are allowed to park in the paint, might actually agree with him more than the NBA, which no longer favors players his size who are not mobile enough. Just watch the havoc that Boban Marjanovic (perhaps Edey’s best future comparison) is wrecking right now in the qualifiers with Serbia. Edey was flown to Victoria with the national team given their lack of size but was cut right before the tournament started and took another flight to Latvia to play with the U19. I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts over Bediako and I’d like to see him get big minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. He can really dominate in a tournament like this with his size, strength, and aggressive mentality if the guards and wings utilize him well.


Edey


Likely end-of-the-rotation players

My guess is that only 3 of these will actually be on the roster (I’d be quite surprised if any of the guys mentioned above doesn’t make it). And I’m not sure how many minutes they will see when games are tight.

Khalfani Hill (18yo; 6’9 SF/PF; 7’2 wingspan; UTEP commit). One of the more intriguing prospects on this team for me. A guy who had a real growth spurt in the last few years, adding about 6 inches. Together with his exceptional length, good athletic profile, great mobility, and building skill (pretty impressive handle; can actually play on the wing), it seems like he has a higher ceiling than some of the guys above. But he doesn’t have experience playing at a higher level and still looks fairly skinny and unpolished. So I’m not sure what he can show in a tournament like this. Still, someone to keep an eye on for future years and I hope he makes it to the final roster and gets some opportunities to see the court.


Hill

Javonte Brown-Ferguson (18.5yo; 7’0 Center; 7’5 wingspan; 250lbs; Transferred from Uconn to Texas A&M). For a minute there, it seemed like Brown might be the first big coming from the bench behind Bediako. But Edey coming back to the roster could make him a bit redundant, as none of the three can really be on the court with the other two for long given their lack of shooting and somewhat limited defensive mobility. Brown started the year with Uconn but hardly got minutes and decided to transfer mid-season. Hopefully, he’ll get more playing time next year with Texas A&M. As for this WC, even if he makes it into the final 12, I can’t see him playing much when games are on the line, unless the other two bigs get into foul trouble. He’s big, well built, and long. But every time I’ve had a chance to watch him play he’s been a bit underwhelming. There seems to be something lacking in both his skill and aggressiveness and he’s also not very explosive.

Dominic Parolin (6’8 PF/C from BC; Lehigh sophomore). A guy I quite liked in high school and last year with Lehigh. Very fundamentally sound, with excellent footwork and deception. Really knows how to work in the paint and get to his spot, though he’s also light on his feet and can attack the basket from the perimeter. Also, a pretty good athlete, though not really a high flyer. Might be the best outside shooter of all our bigs, with fairly good touch, also using his threat from range to attack close-outs, put the ball on the floor, and get to the rim, especially against heavy bigs. All these made him an efficient high school scorer and I think with the years he could also become one in college. Might be hard for him to see minutes in this tournament behind such a battery of bigger players. But I think he can carve some playing time because, unlike Brown, he brings something a bit different to the table and might be able to even play a bit alongside one of the 7-footers if needed. I’m kind of rooting for him.


Parolin

Nana Owusu-Anane (6’8 PF from Burlington, ON; Brown commit). Another paint presence. Not as polished as Parolin, but brings some nice skill of his own, including the ability to handle a bit. Quite a strong dude, who relies on his strength to get to the rim and finish with contact. Has very good energy and is a force in the transition game. Both him and Parolin might be useful playing the center position in small-ball units, particularly against teams who choose to go extra small and try to drive our slower bigs off the court. Both Paroline and Owusu-Anane are much more mobile defensively but still strong enough to hold their own in the paint and even provide some rim protection. So potentially, they might both be more valuable than Brown-Ferguson at least against some teams.

Thomas Ndong (6’8 PF from QC). Ndong moved this year to the NBA Latin American Academy, alongside a few other top QC talents, something that has become rather regular in the last few years (previously Mathurin, O-Max, and South Carolina’s Tre-Vaught Minott did a similar route). Honestly, I’m quite surprised he got this far and would be even more surprised if he’s on the last 12. A somewhat intriguing prospect, who’s very mobile, a good athlete, and brings a lot of energy and hustle, providing quick-twitch athleticism and good timing on the boards and on blocks. But He’s still quite raw, especially on the offensive end of the floor, and also has substantial room for improving his body and adding strength.


I’ll finish tomorrow with part 3, including some thoughts about the competition, the schedule, the rivals, and a projection about how far we could go.

[Hair Canada]

The roster is finally out. As expected, it was two of the bigs who didn't make the cut, Parolin (too bad) and the youngster Ndong.

http://www.fiba.basketball/world/u19/2021/team/Canada#|tab=roster

[Hair Canada]

Okay, the third and last part of this preview before it all starts tomorrow morning. Will talk about the schedule, the Canadian group, the other contenders, and finally a prediction of how deep we could/should go.


CHAMPIONSHIP LOCATION AND TIMELINE

This summer, the championship takes place in Latvia. Canada is in Group A, together with Senegal, Japan, and Lithuania.

In terms of schedule, we will play our first game against Lithuania tomorrow (Saturday, July 3rd, 8am ET), and then Japan (July 4), and Senegal (July 6). After that, we cross with Group B (Puerto Rico, Serbia, Iran, and Latvia) in the round of 16 (July 7). Another one-day break, and then the quarterfinals, semis, and final back to back, on the 9th, 10th, and 11th. Altogether, 7 games in 9 days. All games should be streamed on the championship YouTube (though last time around DAZN took over in the final four and blocked access in Canada).


THE CANADIAN GROUP (GROUP A)

It might sound a bit cocky, but I don’t think we should have a problem finishing first in this group.

Japan will have a young team (almost everyone 18 or younger). They will probably be led by Lawrence Harper (A Japanese mother and an American father), who last year became the youngest player to play in the Japanese league. Bruce Kanno and Ibu Yamazaki also have Japanese mothers and African or American fathers (similar to Washington’s Rui Hachimura) and are expected to lead the team. But it would still be surprising if they are able to match any of the other teams in the group.

Senegal is more interesting. They have some real talent in the paint, with two big 19yo centers who play in Spain: 7’1 Ibou Badji (Barcelona’s second team) and 6’11 Khalifa Diop (Gran Canaria). Diop already put up 13 points and 7 rebounds per game two years ago, as a 17yo in the previous U19. So he's likely to be one of the most dominant players in the current competition. The two are joined by the talented forward Babacar Sane (6’8), who might prove to be the team’s leading scorer. Still, we have guys to put a body on these bigs, in Edey, Bediako, and Brown, and probably also at least match their level of talent. And I suspect that our advantage on the wings will give us the clear edge in this matchup. The Senegalese are also a very weak shooting team (18% from 3 in last year’s U18 competition, with only one player shooting better than 25%...).


Diop

Lithuania, which we meet on the first day of the competition, is always a threat and tends to play great team basketball regardless of individual talent levels. Their best player in this tournament will likely be Ben Mathurin’s teammate in Arizona, the talented big man Azoulas Tubelis, who’s a really nice player with some NBA potential (his twin brother, Tautvilas is also on the roster). The Lithuanians will also have guard Augustas Marciulionis, the son of the legendary Sarunas Marciulionis and an interesting prospect in his own right. But overall, except for Tubelis (the better twin), I don’t think it’s an exceptionally talented team by Lithuanian standards. Again, Canada should have a significant talent advantage here as well.


Tubelis and Mathurin


THE OTHER CONTENDERS

As always, tournaments at this age group are bound to miss many of the most talented eligible U19 players, mostly those who are already into the draft process. From the US these include lottery picks Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Keon Johnson, and Jalen Johnson. Also in that category are Josh Giddey (Australia), Alperen Sengun (Turkey; with the Turkish SMNT), Usman Garuab (Spain), and of course our own Josh Primo. The US is also missing some of the best prospects still in high school, including the very talented Emony Bates and Jalen Duren, who are playing AAU basketball instead (as will Shaedon Sharpe).

But there’s still plenty of young talent to watch in this championship. So here’s a look at some of the best teams (medal contenders) and young prospects.

The United States will of course be the favorite, as usual. The Americans are bringing arguably the #1 player in the class of 2021, Chet Holmgren (7-footer), who will be playing alongside Andrew Nembhard in Gonzaga next year. I'm still not completely sure what to make of Holmgren. Sometimes he looks like another version of OKC's Pokusevski, a skinny guard in the body of a 7-footer, who can wow you with smooth shooting, handle, and passing, but also really lacks physicality and efficiency. Other times, he looks like a huge defensive force with unending offensive potential.

Watch on YouTube

Anyway, the US will also have the #5 (Patrick Baldwin, a 6’9 SF) and #6 (PG Kennedy Chandler) players in the incoming college class according to ESPN. Add a few solid players with college experience (I particularly like Jaden Ivey, who plays in Purdue next to Zach Edey), and you get a level of raw talent that no one else can match, though I do think that the Canadian starting 5 are not that far off.

But the Americans don’t seem as invincible as they were two years ago. First, the talent is probably not at the same level as that historical 2019 team, which featured Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, and Scottie Barnes (5 of the top 6 players in the coming fantastic draft), as well as last year’s lottery picks Tyrese Haliburton and Kira Lewis. Second, this US team also completely lacks FIBA experience and I do think that the.

At first glance, it also seems to me that the Americans are in the toughest group of the competition, group D, together with strong Australia, dangerous Mali, and an intriguing Turkey with NBA center prospect Adem Bona and Arizona’s SF Tibet Gorener. Among these, Australia and Mali seem particularly strong.

Australia has been a factory line for NBA players in recent years, trailing behind only the US, Canada, and France, and this tendency doesn’t seem to subside. Promising PG Josh Giddy won’t be here as he prepares for the draft (a likely lottery pick), but the Aussies have another clear NBA prospect in Dyson Daniels, who like many of their prospects have an American dad. Daniels is an athletic guard (6’6) with good length and a slithery game. He’s very quick and smooth, can get to the rim almost at will and finish in an array of ways, and is also a very good defender. Not the best perimeter shooter right now, but a very nice prospect who should lead the team in scoring. The Australians also have speedy PG Tamuri Wignnes, with tons of FIBA youth competitions experience and a battery of interesting bigs. I think they have real potential to upset the Americans with their strong defense and much more international experience and team cohesion.


Daniels


Mali might be particularly interesting. The surprising silver medalist from the 2019 U19 WC (the first African team to win a medal in such a competition) have kind of a golden generation that keeps winning African youth championships and has a few promising talents. Most notable among these is Oumar Ballo (6’11), their best player from 2019 (at only 17), who’s coming back for more. A big-body traditional center who lives in the paint. In that 2019 WC, he put up 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks a game, which earned him a place in the all-tournament team. Last year Ballo played with Andrew Nembhard in the nearly unbeaten Gonzaga, but he didn’t get much playing time and decided to move to Arizona this summer, so he’ll be playing with Ben Mathurin next year. I have some doubts about him as an NBA prospect, but at this level, he will again dominate. Besides Ballo, Mali has good size and also brings quite a few players with substantial FIBA experience, like PF Mohamed Sidibe, PG Bourama Coulibaly, and the talented youngster Abdramane Kanoute (17yo).


Ballo


France will showcase 7’3 wonder kid Victor Wembanyama, arguably the most talented youth player in the entire world (he’s only 17). A really amazing talent, who will play at the Euroleague next year. At this level, he will provide a huge defensive advantage for the French, but also brings a surprisingly developed offensive acumen to the table. As usual, France will also have quite a bit of depth, with the highest amount of raw talent outside of North America. They are also really big with Wembanyama and another talented 7-footer, Maxime Raynaud. But some of their best perimeter players at this age group (most notably Begarin and Dieng) will be missing there for various reasons, so I’m not sure how good their backcourt is going to be. Harvard guard, Louis Lesmond, should lead them there.

Watch on YouTube

Two other teams that you always have to watch out for are Serbia, Spain.

Serbia will showcase Nikola Jovic at center. And yes, I realize that if you change just one small letter in his name you get the reigning MVP. But Jovic is a great talent in his own right, one of the most exciting young players in Europe and a probable lottery pick in a year or two. And he does it in a classic Serbian fashion. He’s not the tallest (6’10), fastest, or most athletic guy, but he has a great handle for a big, the ability to finish well with both hands, excellent footwork and use of angles, and most importantly (as Jokic has shown), fantastic feel for the game, with great passing, vision, and poise that are well beyond his years. The other guy I know and like in Serbia is SF Stephan Todorovic (6’8; SMU commit), a sharpshooter who can also put the ball on the floor and make plays.

Watch on YouTube

Spain will be missing their best player, Garuba, a borderline lottery pick in this draft, who led them to the European U18 title in 2019. But they always have good depth and their 2003 class won the European U16 championship two years ago. No real big names there, except maybe for PG Juan Nunez (6’5), who just turned 17 but is one of the best young PGs in the world and already saw some playoff minutes with the senior team of Real Madrid.


Nunez



So what are the chances for a Canadian medal?

I don’t want to jinx it but from what I can see, Canada has superior talent and depth to any team in this competition not named the US (and maybe France, which I don’t know well enough). And I even think that while the US is, as usual, the favorites, we can still look them in the eye and give them a run for their money if it comes to that). For the first time since I can remember, we are very big and deep in the paint, and in fact, we are the tallest team in this tournament, with an average height of about 6’9.

This is a sudden-death tournament and one bad day or an unfortunate draw (or an injury to Nembhard) can even mean missing the final four (can't really see a script where we lose before the QF).

But let’s not sugarcoat it: This time around, any ranking outside of the podium would be a disappointment. And another gold medal, while still not very likely, shouldn’t be as shocking as it was in 2017.

[LuDux1]

Lithuania, which we meet on the first day of the competition, is always a threat and tends to play great team basketball regardless of individual talent levels. Their best player in this tournament will likely be Ben Mathurin’s teammate in Arizona, the talented big man Azoulas Tubelis, who’s a really nice player with some NBA potential (his twin brother, Tautvilas is also on the roster). The Lithuanians will also have guard Augustas Marciulionis, the son of the legendary Sarunas Marciulionis and an interesting prospect in his own right. But overall, except for Tubelis (the better twin), I don’t think it’s an exceptionally talented team by Lithuanian standards. Again, Canada should have a significant talent advantage here as well.


Tubelis and Mathurin

Tautvilas is not on final roster. 2 other players of roughly his position Murauskas and Repsys are injured too