2021 NBA Draft, Part 2

[BlazersBroncos]

Scottie Lewis is probably just a SG version of DJJ but the upside is still worth a gamble. I like him late R1 but if I want to go all upside my guy would be Thor for sure.

[Marcus]

I know Im probably late to talk about this but just saw the measurements from the combine.

Jalen Johnson with the biggest hands in the draft, a legit 6'9 and a wingspan of 7'. Ive been critical on him this past year, but damn those measurements sure do look good. His size with his ease of bounce, boy if the dude can get an ego check and get put into his place. I would be tempted to take him 6th in this draft. The dude was completely misused on the offensive end at Duke and I think he showed a ton of potential as a 4 and small ball 5 defender.

Also If my team is in the late teens or early 20s, Id be all over Scottie Lewis. Freak athlete in every sense of the word, great hops, great first step, fantastic overall agility, and throw in a legit 7 foot wingspan. Ya Im taking him in the teens or twenties with the thought process of at minimum he can be an elite wing defender and he has plenty of potential to become a damn good 3&D wing and with that athleticism, maybe a little more.

He's definitely gonna land in that KPJ bag where you say "oh yeahhhhhh he is really good at basketball" i think if he lands somewhere they can keep him focused and locked in he's going to end up a steal, because based on talent alone he should be much much higher.

[Marcus]

speaking of below the radar, i submit Isaiah Todd as another one of those "if im doing my homework" or "i have something in mind for" type of talents.

[nolang1]

Read on Twitter

Didn't see anything about this in the thread. Thor is a pretty obvious riser of late, but the other guys aren't super highly regarded; do you think they have a 1st round promise as well?

[clyde21]

Read on Twitter

Didn't see anything about this in the thread. Thor is a pretty obvious riser of late, but the other guys aren't super highly regarded; do you think they have a 1st round promise as well?

i think they would opt out on 2nd round promises too, not necessarily 1st round. none of these guys going back to school.

but yea, Thor most likely secured himself a 1st round bid

[nolang1]

Read on Twitter

Didn't see anything about this in the thread. Thor is a pretty obvious riser of late, but the other guys aren't super highly regarded; do you think they have a 1st round promise as well?

i think they would opt out on 2nd round promises too, not necessarily 1st round. none of these guys going back to school.

but yea, Thor most likely secured himself a 1st round bid

That's certainly possible too, but it's also a good reminder that there's a lot less consensus among teams outside the top lottery picks than is commonly assumed and these players could all be going higher than commonly assumed. I have Henry as a mid-1st rounder, and Bassey has a combination of shot-blocking and shooting touch that isn't too common among bigs in this draft.

[DCasey91]

Hopefully Weiskamp, Mann, Roko, Christopher all go in the first round. Whoever gets Trey Murphy,
McBride and Filip too will get good ones.

And whichever teams get Jalen Green and Suggs has won the draft lol

Can’t wait for next season!

[God Squad]

Hopefully Weiskamp, Mann, Roko, Christopher all go in the first round. Whoever gets Trey Murphy,
McBride and Filip too will get good ones.

And whichever teams get Jalen Green and Suggs has won the draft lol

Can’t wait for next season!

You've been vocal on your love for Green. I didn't know you liked Suggs that much (I do too). What are your thoughts on the top 5?

[DCasey91]

Hopefully Weiskamp, Mann, Roko, Christopher all go in the first round. Whoever gets Trey Murphy,
McBride and Filip too will get good ones.

And whichever teams get Jalen Green and Suggs has won the draft lol

Can’t wait for next season!

You've been vocal on your love for Green. I didn't know you liked Suggs that much (I do too). What are your thoughts on the top 5?

Oh I have my list of 11 Favs Not necessarily the best prospects, just the ones I like the most eye of the beholder stuff. Need to watch more of Mr. Juzang when I get time.

I love me some Suggs (Kidd 2.0) but Green has taken over my fever pitched fandom for a prospect since Luka. I kept ringing my mate saying he’s going to be the goat (Alright top 15 then) ever since Eurobasket. A lot of 2am text messages!

It was initially Mobley then the G league started and that was that.

Think it was the first thread I mentioned Suggs being the best leader in the class, and if I were to pick one player from this draft to start and have a pivotal role in a championship it’d probably be him.

Top 5 I rate but the overall draft I’m lukewarm on.

- I think Cade is very very solid but shouldn’t be consensus number one at all (not enough separation from the others to me) I see a more smaller Tatum/slightly bigger less bouncy Hayward. He has dominant games but it wasn’t always on. Also his handle, shiftiness at the rim, passing and size isn’t as hyped as it’s what’s made out to be.
I see a 21/6/5 two way wing more then a primary option guard. Also from the eye he isn’t 6”8” that Afro added some inches. He’s very very good but he just for some reason I can’t see him being the best player from this draft. His shooting from outside is classy though.

- Suggs has Kidd written all over him, best leader hands down. He is a team culture building asset. Dude is a competitive beast. Wolves and a lot of other teams need someone like him to take the reigns and say this is how it’s done.
Doesn’t have to be the best player on a championship team. Just the hands down best leader

- Mobley I rate but I wouldn’t say growing concerns, he’s more Bosh then Garnett if you catch my drift. I can’t see AD level. Bigs take time. From experience NBA may trend in that direction. I know from my own sport, even the ones out of the box and “prodigious” number one talented bigs take years longer then smalls. And Mobley isn’t true center size. Some have “deer legs” and even the ones that have true man child bodies and were surefire top picks needed time.

- Kuminga is a touch underrated when comparing the other 4 but he is the one that needs the most work imo. Get that shot right he’ll be a fine player.

- Green is 15+ pounds away pretty much lol Beal off ball/on ball sets done. I get the FT rate and Reb % and wingspan, defense all that etc. But when you fall in love with a prospect, that’s it you are on the bandwagon for life. Actually sturdy for his frame anyway, and kids mature body wise naturally. He’s going to be really something in three years time.

All 5 are very very sound picks. Pick 6 is where the draft begins for me.

[yoyoboy]

The more I watch of Cade, the more confident I am I wouldn't take him in the top 5. It blows my mind people have him as some consensus number one pick. Definitely one of the most overhyped prospects in recent years, probably because people see a big player who played the point in college and can really shoot it. But once you actually delve in deeper you see all the flaws.

In 17 games after January 9th, Cade has exactly 1 dunk. He averaged 0.47 offensive rebounds per game. And he had 2.9 shot attempts at the rim per game where he shot 59%. Even if you go by the figures for the whole season, those stats among wing prospects are absolutely terrible and paint him as a guy who won't be able to put pressure on a defense at the NBA level. And if you look at the film, it's actually scary how incapable Cade is of turning the corner on drives out of the PnR or in 1-on-1 matchups or how loose his handles are, which is why he has to resort to tough jump shots a lot of the time (see: Oregon St game). Moreover, his passing game is hugely overrated. Assists/turnovers are a much better predictor of NBA playmaking success than purely assists by the way, and this isn't something that can just be chalked up to bad teammates. He's prone to terrible decisions and his accuracy isn't good. And if he can't collapse the defense, those passing windows in the NBA are going to be even smaller. Simply put, his quickness, handles, and passing are absolutely not good enough for him to be a primary playmaker in the NBA.

Defensively, I didn't like what I saw either. He may have size but he's not physical at all. And he's not quick enough to deal with perimeter players or rotate fast enough to get good contests. He's in that area where he won't be able to defend bigs effectively because he's not strong/physical enough but he doesn't have the foot speed to guard PGs-SFs. It's not like he's shown great instincts either.

What he does have is top notch shooting ability; that can't be denied. And so I'm curious why he gets Doncic comparisons more than Middleton when Middleton seems like a much more accurate one. Comparing Cade's freshman year to Khris' sophomore year:

Age / USG% / ORTG / AST% / A/TO / STL% / BLK% / ORB% / DRB% / FT% / 2P% / FTr / 3PAr / PTS/100
Cade: 19.2 / 28.6 / 104 / 20.4 / 0.86 / 2.5 / 2.3 / 2.3 / 16.3 / 84.6 / 46.1 / 0.39 / 0.31 / 31.2
Khris: 19.3 / 27.9 / 108 / 23.7 / 1.04 / 2.5 / 0.2 / 8.1 / 13.4 / 78.4 / 49.0 / 0.42 / 0.39 / 30.6

They demonstrate a lot of similar strengths and weaknesses. Cade provided more rim protection though while Khris was significantly more active on the offensive glass. If I had to peg Khris as an outcome for Cade, I would put it as maybe like the 75th percentile of outcomes for him. Not sure what I would put as his 50th percentile outcome. I don't think there are a lot of good comparisons in the NBA for him. But it would be the level of a good but not All-Star level starter.



Going by this All-Star probability chart from 2019, I think being the ~6th pick seems about right for Cade. Something like a 25% chance of being an All-Star, which aligns with Khris being his 75th percentile outcome. Khris is a low-level All Star with 2 appearances to his name, and this draft is a little stronger than normal so he would be slightly above that cusp of All-Star level.

My big board for the top half of the lottery is:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Sengun
5. Green
6. Cunningham
7. Wagner

[mademan]

Ya i have the same reservations about Cade's physicality.

My top 4.

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Green
4. Cade

[Upperclass]

The more I watch of Cade, the more confident I am I wouldn't take him in the top 5. It blows my mind people have him as some consensus number one pick. Definitely one of the most overhyped prospects in recent years, probably because people see a big player who played the point in college and can really shoot it. But once you actually delve in deeper you see all the flaws.

In 17 games after January 9th, Cade has exactly 1 dunk. He averaged 0.47 offensive rebounds per game. And he had 2.9 shot attempts at the rim per game where he shot 59%. Even if you go by the figures for the whole season, those stats among wing prospects are absolutely terrible and paint him as a guy who won't be able to put pressure on a defense at the NBA level. And if you look at the film, it's actually scary how incapable Cade is of turning the corner on drives out of the PnR or in 1-on-1 matchups or how loose his handles are, which is why he has to resort to tough jump shots a lot of the time (see: Oregon St game). Moreover, his passing game is hugely overrated. Assists/turnovers are a much better predictor of NBA playmaking success than purely assists by the way, and this isn't something that can just be chalked up to bad teammates. He's prone to terrible decisions and his accuracy isn't good. And if he can't collapse the defense, those passing windows in the NBA are going to be even smaller. Simply put, his quickness, handles, and passing are absolutely not good enough for him to be a primary playmaker in the NBA.

Defensively, I didn't like what I saw either. He may have size but he's not physical at all. And he's not quick enough to deal with perimeter players or rotate fast enough to get good contests. He's in that area where he won't be able to defend bigs effectively because he's not strong/physical enough but he doesn't have the foot speed to guard PGs-SFs. It's not like he's shown great instincts either.

What he does have is top notch shooting ability; that can't be denied. And so I'm curious why he gets Doncic comparisons more than Middleton when Middleton seems like a much more accurate one. Comparing Cade's freshman year to Khris' sophomore year:

Age / USG% / ORTG / AST% / A/TO / STL% / BLK% / ORB% / DRB% / FT% / 2P% / FTr / 3PAr / PTS/100
Cade: 19.2 / 28.6 / 104 / 20.4 / 0.86 / 2.5 / 2.3 / 2.3 / 16.3 / 84.6 / 46.1 / 0.39 / 0.31 / 31.2
Khris: 19.3 / 27.9 / 108 / 23.7 / 1.04 / 2.5 / 0.2 / 8.1 / 13.4 / 78.4 / 49.0 / 0.42 / 0.39 / 30.6

They demonstrate a lot of similar strengths and weaknesses. Cade provided more rim protection though while Khris was significantly more active on the offensive glass. If I had to peg Khris as an outcome for Cade, I would put it as maybe like the 75th percentile of outcomes for him. Not sure what I would put as his 50th percentile outcome. I don't think there are a lot of good comparisons in the NBA for him. But it would be the level of a good but not All-Star level starter.



Going by this All-Star probability chart from 2019, I think being the ~6th pick seems about right for Cade. Something like a 25% chance of being an All-Star, which aligns with Khris being his 75th percentile outcome. Khris is a low-level All Star with 2 appearances to his name, and this draft is a little stronger than normal so he would be slightly above that cusp of All-Star level.

My big board for the top half of the lottery is:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Green
5. Sengun
6. Cunningham
7. Wagner

He's a late lotto/post lotto guy imo but otherwise.. Nailed it.

[clyde21]

i've been comping Cade to Khris for a while, check the Cade thread.

and lol at Cade being a late lotto ^.

[DCasey91]

Wait shouldn’t that be a concern for Mobley if we are going that route with Cade?

I rate Mobley highly but that doesn’t mean I have concerns with him. Not Ayton/Embiid true big size and not quite AD level (rare) coming out of College.

Cade is a sized wing that can shoot (he’s class on that aspect) that already puts him on a good base.

Like a bigger less bouncy Hayward is my comp. or smaller Tatum same thing.

I agree I don’t think he’ll end up being the best player from this draft, do I think he’ll be bad? No just not consensus Number 1#.

For me he still projects top 3-4 on a redraft when it’s all said and done years from now.

I mean, Barnes, 2x Johnson, Wagner, Garuba, Kuminga aren’t comparable when it comes too overall coverage on Cade’s offensive skillset. Besides Wagner (jack of all trades but still his shot can be inconsistent) all have legitimate warts in their game to iron out. That is a steep skill learning curve which doesn’t hit even close to 50% of the time.

Like if Cade ends being the smaller Tatum or bigger Hayward with less moves. That’s still a very very safe and great outcome.

He’s very transferable in the NBA. I’m not even close to being a Cade fan. But he is very very good.

[yoyoboy]

I have concerns with Mobley as well, mainly his body due to his skinny frame and high center of gravity. His shooting also is iffy - shot well from mid range and form isn’t bad but FT% isn’t great and 3PA rate and 3P% are fairly low. He projects to be an Anthony Davis-level shooter, but you hope he can be better than that.

Other than those though, Mobley is just awesome across the board. Far less red flags than Cade. Among bigs, his playmaking is very rare for a draft prospect, especially at his age, and that correlates well not just with NBA playmaking but also with defensive IQ in the NBA. These passes come in all kinds of situations - the short roll, post ups, face ups. He’s very active defensively while being very low in foul rate (unlike JJJ was) which communicates that he has a high motor/good athleticism defensively but he’s still disciplined. From the film, you can see how impressive his switchiness and PnR defense are. It’s not just good mobility and length. He has a great understanding of positioning already and he’s very quick to react and go to where he needs to be. As far as scoring, he has a really balanced scoring distribution. He also shot 78.5% at the rim while being assisted on just 52.2% of shots. By comparison, Jaren Jackson shot 65.6% at the rim while being assisted on 45.9% and about 2/3 the volume of Mobley. For further reference, Anthony Davis was at another level, shooting an absurd 87.4% at the rim at the highest volume while being assisted on 61.2%.

You can see his fluidity on drives out of his face up game and out of the PnR. He has great touch once he gets into the paint. His dribble is a strength for a guy with his size. While he might be the most explosive player out there, his 7’5 wingspan allows him to be a great lob target. I don’t expect him to be a #1 scoring option. But Mobley has a very good chance to be a #2-3 scoring option, #1b playmaking option, and #1 defensive option for a team and that right there is probably a perennial top 10 most valuable player in the league.

[Roger Murdock]

Riddle me this everyone - how the hell are you expected to guard Jalen Green in the NBA?

He's got the fastest first step I've ever seen, he launches out of a cannon. So you have to play back on him or he's getting by whenever he wants. But he's an amazing shooter so you just gave him a good look from deep where he'll convert at 37%+ on high volume.

I think you have to give him the drive right now and rotate the defense to stop him on the next level. Once he develops his passing a bit more he's going to be deadly. Right now hes more of a one-read passer and doesn't convert passes weakside very well. He basically reads the inside help and thats it. By year 3 once he develops passing awareness on the drive hes going to be a 30/5/5 player on ridiculous efficiency.

This is why he's my #1 guy. He's going to be getting NBA level spacing and can punish anyone on the drive. He will be a scoring machine period. And if you are an absurd scorer the rest will come eventually. Durant took a while to become a well rounded beast.

A guy like Cade if you throw a great defender at him 1v1 and have him play up in his **** and take away the shot I truly think Cade will struggle winning games off the bounce and getting to the hoop because hes just not that quick.

Green is going to blow by everyone. Like he straight up might be the best athlete in the NBA from day-1.

[DCasey91]

For Green it’s mainly FT rate and Rebound % both on paper don’t look great but the FT rate is no concern for me. He’s a handful and a half right now.

I’m not concerned with his frame either (sturdy and that velocity and contortion and touch off the takeoff is special special stuff).

It’s as if someone put Morant with a better shot and less passing ability into a taller Beal’s body.

Mobley is a tweener size, and Cade isn’t as big as some people think he is. He isn’t 6”8” in fact looking at college games Tatum was noticeably larger, even Barrett looked taller from the eye.

Funny thing is the most underrated aspect is actually the most transferable to me at the next level for both Cade and Mobley.

Cade - Shooting
Mobley- Passing

Wouldn’t surprise me in the least for Mobley to average 4 assists by year 3.

I was extremely high on JJJ.

But now it’s different for me. Bigs unless they are true big man size and highly dominant (defensive first always) or a generational type skillset I can’t rate them too highly because they need time.

I think Cade’s role is going to be different than this nonsense primary PG projection talk. He’s simply not nuanced or shifty enough in halfcourt play.

His shooting is a 100% buy though can’t fault that. Like what Barrett is doing right now I can see that in Cade for sure. Better shooter from day dot.

I mean all three could be the potential best from this class in 3 years for me.

I just see Green having an extraordinary high ceiling when his base transfer is comparable to the other two.

He’s going to score... and a lot. And with this much space today he’s going to be a nightmare to guard in less then 3 years.

[The Moose]

The more I watch of Cade, the more confident I am I wouldn't take him in the top 5. It blows my mind people have him as some consensus number one pick. Definitely one of the most overhyped prospects in recent years, probably because people see a big player who played the point in college and can really shoot it. But once you actually delve in deeper you see all the flaws.

In 17 games after January 9th, Cade has exactly 1 dunk. He averaged 0.47 offensive rebounds per game. And he had 2.9 shot attempts at the rim per game where he shot 59%. Even if you go by the figures for the whole season, those stats among wing prospects are absolutely terrible and paint him as a guy who won't be able to put pressure on a defense at the NBA level. And if you look at the film, it's actually scary how incapable Cade is of turning the corner on drives out of the PnR or in 1-on-1 matchups or how loose his handles are, which is why he has to resort to tough jump shots a lot of the time (see: Oregon St game). Moreover, his passing game is hugely overrated. Assists/turnovers are a much better predictor of NBA playmaking success than purely assists by the way, and this isn't something that can just be chalked up to bad teammates. He's prone to terrible decisions and his accuracy isn't good. And if he can't collapse the defense, those passing windows in the NBA are going to be even smaller. Simply put, his quickness, handles, and passing are absolutely not good enough for him to be a primary playmaker in the NBA.

Defensively, I didn't like what I saw either. He may have size but he's not physical at all. And he's not quick enough to deal with perimeter players or rotate fast enough to get good contests. He's in that area where he won't be able to defend bigs effectively because he's not strong/physical enough but he doesn't have the foot speed to guard PGs-SFs. It's not like he's shown great instincts either.

What he does have is top notch shooting ability; that can't be denied. And so I'm curious why he gets Doncic comparisons more than Middleton when Middleton seems like a much more accurate one. Comparing Cade's freshman year to Khris' sophomore year:

Age / USG% / ORTG / AST% / A/TO / STL% / BLK% / ORB% / DRB% / FT% / 2P% / FTr / 3PAr / PTS/100
Cade: 19.2 / 28.6 / 104 / 20.4 / 0.86 / 2.5 / 2.3 / 2.3 / 16.3 / 84.6 / 46.1 / 0.39 / 0.31 / 31.2
Khris: 19.3 / 27.9 / 108 / 23.7 / 1.04 / 2.5 / 0.2 / 8.1 / 13.4 / 78.4 / 49.0 / 0.42 / 0.39 / 30.6

They demonstrate a lot of similar strengths and weaknesses. Cade provided more rim protection though while Khris was significantly more active on the offensive glass. If I had to peg Khris as an outcome for Cade, I would put it as maybe like the 75th percentile of outcomes for him. Not sure what I would put as his 50th percentile outcome. I don't think there are a lot of good comparisons in the NBA for him. But it would be the level of a good but not All-Star level starter.



Going by this All-Star probability chart from 2019, I think being the ~6th pick seems about right for Cade. Something like a 25% chance of being an All-Star, which aligns with Khris being his 75th percentile outcome. Khris is a low-level All Star with 2 appearances to his name, and this draft is a little stronger than normal so he would be slightly above that cusp of All-Star level.

My big board for the top half of the lottery is:

1. Mobley
2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Sengun
5. Green
6. Cunningham
7. Wagner

I'm obviously on the Cade wagon, but I think you're definitely overthinking some parts of your criticism and actively looking for ways to lower your view on him as a prospect.

He certainly has concerns regarding his ability or lack thereof to play above the rim in the half court, however I think you're underrating his ability in the PnR and his potential to be a lead playmaker at the next level. His handle is often too high at times, but that is something I think can easily be corrected. The one significant difference between he and Middleton in regard to being playmakers out of the PnR imo is their body composition. Cade is taller (+1 inch), longer (wingspan +4 inches) and stronger with a much better frame overall. At the next level, once Cade puts on some additional size to what he already has, I think he's going to be able to use his body and strength in ways Middleton can't, and I think thats one reason he gets the Luka comparison. I think he is going to be able to put pressure on the rim through size and strength, possibly the type to take smaller guards into the post as well where he was already elite for guard.
In terms of Points per Possession, Cade was 92nd percentile attacking the basket off PnR, and 82nd percentile overall around the basket. I think with NBA spacing and the way the game is officiated, with his size and strength he is going to be an elite PnR player despite his lack of burst.

And also, I don't see how its fair to compare his offensive rebound rate and shot attempts at the basket to wing prospects. You might not think hes a guard at the next level, but the fact is he played point guard for OK State, his stats in these areas should be compared to guard prospects.

His ast-turnover rate is a concern for me, but not a huge one. He has been an great passer at every level, I think the turnovers are mostly a result of him adjusting to a new role on offense with a huge offensive load which not really a role he has had before. I'm not sure he'll be an absolutely elite playmaker, but I'm sure he'll get the opportunity next season as lead ball handler on the Pistons to show whether he's capable.
So I don't think its fair to say he can't be a primary playmaker due to his quickness/handles/passing, two of these are fixable particularly his ball handling.

Comparing his freshman season in which he took a team that was predicted to finish bottom 5 in the Big 12 all the way to Big 12 final while pretty much carrying the entire offensive load to Middleton's sophomore season seems to be done without a lot of context. He led the entire nation in clutch points, which is of note to me, as its an indication that he can score and create when the game is tightest.
At the end of the day hes an elite shooter+elite iso player+potential lead playmaker with elite size for his position.
Cade and Wall are the only freshman guards in the last 2 decades + to win conference player of the year and be selected 1st team All American.
Khris and Cade do have similar strength and weaknesses but I see bigger stronger Middleton being Cade's floor at the next level, with the potential to reach higher if he can tighten his handle and play in an offensive system catered to his strengths.

I could understand someone arguing Mobley or Green over Cade but to have him 6th or outside the top 3 seems ridiculous to me

[Big J]

Cade is woefully underwhelming to me as well. He's obviously not going to be a bust or anything, he's just massively overhyped. People have been suckered into thinking that if you are a forward who can shoot and have playmaking skills you are automatically going to be a superstar because of Luka. Cade's athleticism & first step are frankly below average. He doesn't have the aggressiveness of Luka, so I don't see him hunting small guys to bull over. Look back 10 years to a guy who had the exact same skillset, physical limitations, and demeanor, and actually a couple of inches on Cade... it's Turkoglu. Overall a plus player and good guy to have on your roster, but nowhere close to a number one pick in a loaded draft. Hopefully Detroit sobers up and goes with the guy with the generational athletic gifts.

[DCasey91]

The thing with Khris and Cade is their body type even from the eye is different.

Cade is more or less a smaller Tatum or a bigger Hayward body

I think he’ll peak pretty quickly.

Guessing 21/6/5 numbers on plus offensive efficiency and being a useful defender at certain stages and positions on the court/game.

Look I’ll reserve judgement, but in terms of prospects not as a number one but Cade he does get some harsh assessment. He’s still a fine choice especially this year just not at one for me.