doclinkin wrote:payitforward wrote:Ruzious wrote:Some of the better value picks are players 22 and 23 years old, and presumably they'll be closer to being able to contribute than some of the 19 year olds that will be picked higher. And having 2 enormous salaries on the books makes it almost a necessity to hit on some 2nd rounders. I'd actually like to have 5 rookies this coming season - most being 22 or 23 years old.
This is a very interesting perspective. I'm usually having fun joking about taking a shovel to the draft, but my jokes reflect what I really like to see -- even though, of course, it never happens & is rightly called unrealistic.
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This would be a great great year to do that. The number of outstanding prospects who will be available in the late 30s & 40s, & maybe beyond, looks large.
Start with Queta, Petrusev, Bassey, Cooper, Sharpe, Dosunmu, Wieskamp, Ayayi, Sylla, Sims, Cockburn, Nix, the Champagnie twins, Livers.
There will be interesting talent available as UDFA's, and agreed that there are solid players mocked late in the draft who would be great gets. This does look to be a strong year. Honestly though every year looks like it has gems late. That's why the modification to your draft philosophy ought not to be to "[take] a shovel to the draft" but instead to "SHovel It Forward". ShIF it.
That is: rather than try to integrate 5 rookies a year, wouldn't it be great to spread those extra picks over the next 5 years, to have at least 1 extra pick *every* year? Rather than trade down to select extra picks in any given year, trade down for a pick/player, AND a future pick. Yes it requires patience to pay off, and will piss off fans, but seems to me in this way you maximize the value of the asset.
Additional future draft picks are underrated commodities. Current year picks are more coveted, as each year team scouts fall in love with a guy they've been watching. But future picks cost you nothing. No roster spot, no cap hit. They are a commodity that can be packaged in trades to sweeten a deal. And not every year is a deep year. If you ShIF your trade down proposals, then you can pick up assets in years that might be deeper in talent. If you do use those extra picks every year, you can bring players along progressively. You can develop a pace or technique of player development that is not overwhelmed by having to teach too much to too many. Instead you have 3rd year players who are starting to get it, able to mentor (or at least provide an example to) a the rooks coming in.
This is on the money, doc -- of course.
& it scales as well. That is, in principle every team gets two picks a year free of charge. If you have an extra pick you can use it to improve the position of the other 2 picks, or of a pick in a coming year.
Of course in any particular situation you'd look to do what made most sense that year. If you have 3 picks in a given year, & there are 3 players available to you whom you rank high enough, you'd use them all.
The problem we've faced is the legacy of Ernie having traded away so many R2 picks. Instead of having *extra* picks to shovel forward or consolidate for a higher pick, we have been (& still are) short of picks. E.g. we had no R2 pick in 2015, 2016, 2017 or 2019 (though we did buy a late-ish R2 pick that year), & we don't have one this year either -- not to mention our having had no R1 pick in either 2016 or 2017.
Tommy has done a lot to address this problem -- starting w/ his having gotten us Thomas Bryant at no cost when Ernie was still running the show & acquiring Moe Wagner, Bonga, Mathews, Pasecniks & Robinson for nothing. The last two didn't make it, & he turned Brown/Wagner into Hutch/Gafford which didn't get us older.
Going forward, as is the case this year our own R2 picks are gone both next year & in 2023 -- but we have Chicago's R2 pick next year & the Grizzlies' in 2024 (OKC traded us that one for Admiral).
Overall, IOW, we are down R2 picks. Meaning that we probably have some work to do before we can start shoveling forward.
As you say, "not every year is deep." But, this year sure seems to be deep. So, it would seem a good idea to take advantage of that depth, no? Either by trading down or by buying a R2 pick -- or by doing both.
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