buzzkilloton wrote:Don't forget Cade was the number one prospect and known for his passing from AAU,highschool, and the Fiba already. If Cade played on a team like Gonzaga his ast/to ratio number would of course be better
I agree though he's best served playing with another primary ball-handler. Hopefully, Killian turns into that guy.
What you see here isnt what its going to look like for Cade at the next level.
Cade played on one of the most stacked high school basketball teams of all time against competition that was terribly outmatched. Cade's playmaking in college is a much more important indicator of whether he has NBA point ability than his high school days.
And sure on a stacked Gonzaga team playing his optimal position he probably would have been able to post something like 2-2-2.5 apg with a positive ast/to ratio, but that still doesn't convince me he's more than a good passing wing, and most prospects play with bad teammates in college that do a lot of what that video is demonstrating. It's worth noting that Oklahoma State actually played slightly better with Cade off the floor, so I'm not buying that Cade played with some particularly noteworthy awful cast. The team also generated a 53.8% 2P with him off the court vs 51.3% with him on, while seemingly ending up with better looks when he wasn't the one initiating. And the high turnovers are hardly the only issue. He has weak handles and he has poor burst, as well.
The Moose wrote:24.5 ppg, 7.5 rebs , 4.5 asts , 50% fg 44% 3pt ?
1-1 W-L split against a significantly better team who was the best team in college ? Throw some better players out there around him he’d probably get an additional 1-2 assists on top of that.
Could be worse
His turnovers are bad for sure, a lot come from situations where he leaves his feet to pass or offensive fouls where he uses his off arm or shoulder. Some of his turnovers though were from the fact he was being regularly
doubled or triple teamed on a small court with bad spacing.
Even with his high turnovers, his ast/to % is pretty misleading. Analytically his team mates missed a statistically improbable amount of make-able shots and potential assists. With competent team mates this season his assist to turnover ratio would’ve been somewhere between 1-1.2 and it would be a totally different story here.
I will be very surprised if he doesn’t average 5-6 assists per game as a rookie.
So let's break this down. The statline is nice, but I never said he wasn't a good college player. The goal is to determine how good of an NBA player he'll be.
PPG aren't actually a strong predictor of NBA success. And neither are RPG because defensive rebounds don't seem to matter much in the equation, with so many being uncontested. Height, Age, ORB%, AST/TO, FTAr, 3PAr, FT%, and STL% are some important metrics. Cade checks the right boxes on some of them and then others, not so much. Based on his FT% and 3PAr, and just watching his ability to make threes at a high rate off the bounce, it's pretty clear he's a great shooter and that's something that will for sure translate. His free throw attempt rate is pretty good, which usually correlates well with NBA scoring ability. He's tall. Age wise, he's a little older for a freshman but it's not like he's old as far as draft prospects. His STL% is solid but nothing crazy.
Moving on to more concerning issues, his AST/TO is bad and not at all reflective of a player who can be a lead playmaker in the NBA. I've already addressed why chalking it up to teammates is a faulty argument above. We can also go through game footage if you'd like for this one. His ORB% is just awful for prospects his size, which suggests he won't handle NBA athleticism and physicality well. He posted a 104.2 ORTG on 28.6 usage with 46.1% shooting inside the arc, something that's concerning considering he was able to hit 3s at such a great rate. It's not surprising though because he's just not a very strong ballhandler, his playmaking/decision making in traffic isn't great, he has trouble getting all the way to the rim against guys who look like NBA-caliber defenders, and once he gets there he can't elevate/finish well. As the season went on (and the competition improved), Cade himself also adjusted his game, with his drive rate steadily and noticeably declining, again indicating a player who struggles to get past quality defenders. Furthermore, despite his size, I very much doubt he's going to be a good defender. He was bad in college making effective close outs and being able to defend perimeter players in general because of his lacking foot speed and reaction time, and despite being 220 pounds, he was physically overmatched against bigs. The low ORB% also suggests he won't be a strong defensive rebounder in the league.
Finally, to hammer the point on playmaking, Cade posted above 5 assists last season twice in 27 games. One was an 8 assist (3 turnovers) outing against 12-18, 338/347th ranked defense Oakland. And the other was a 7 assist (4 turnovers) performance against 2-22, 319/347th ranked defense Iowa State. It's not surprising that his best playmaking performances came against some of the worst defenses in the country.
I want to make it clear I'm not saying Cade is a terrible prospect. He clearly brings some very good things to the table, and I would say his floor is one of the highest in the draft because a great shooter with good size and above average playmaking for a wing will have a hard time not being a good starter in the NBA. I just don't think he's number one pick material and I don't think his upside is very high given his limitations which are going to be difficult to overcome. He's 6th on my big board behind Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Green, Sengun, and despite being lower on my board because of higher bust potential, I think a guy like Sharife Cooper actually has more star potential than Cade, as well.
