Lauri Markkanen Thread: PG. 13 - KC: Bulls Extend QO to Lauri

[TeamMan]

There's a thread about Lauris S&T value on the trades forum... lots of intriguing ones. Jalen Brunson, Derrick White, & Devonte Graham were some names. If we could flip Lauri for a potential starting PG that would be huge.

The ONLY way a S&T happens is if Lauri wants to go to the S&T team and the S&T team is willing to pay Lauri what he wants and (for the most part) that he S&T team doesn't have the cap space. For example SA has the cap space. To get anything more than a 2nd round pick back, there'd need to be competition for Lauri in a S&T (ie 2 teams that Lauri would be ok going to) - highly unlikely.

Lauri is likely gone and we're very likely getting nothing back - folks need to move on.

The Bulls will not let Lauri walk.

But they also will not keep him.

AK has shown that he makes the deals that he wants to make, and does not let fear force him into a decision.

If he doesn't get the deal that he wants in a S&T, he will resign Lauri and look to trade him later.

[sco]

There's a thread about Lauris S&T value on the trades forum... lots of intriguing ones. Jalen Brunson, Derrick White, & Devonte Graham were some names. If we could flip Lauri for a potential starting PG that would be huge.

The ONLY way a S&T happens is if Lauri wants to go to the S&T team and the S&T team is willing to pay Lauri what he wants and (for the most part) that he S&T team doesn't have the cap space. For example SA has the cap space. To get anything more than a 2nd round pick back, there'd need to be competition for Lauri in a S&T (ie 2 teams that Lauri would be ok going to) - highly unlikely.

Lauri is likely gone and we're very likely getting nothing back - folks need to move on.

The Bulls will not let Lauri walk.

But they also will not keep him.

AK has shown that he makes the deals that he wants to make, and does not let fear force him into a decision.

If he doesn't get the deal that he wants in a S&T, he will resign Lauri and look to trade him later.

Matching an offer is a definite possibility if the price is sub $15M, after that, it might boom-a-rang and become an untradeable contract. The other possibility, and, honestly the best one for the Bulls would be if Lauri accepts the QO.

[dice]

clearly based on recent patterns if we re-sign lauri he will fail to live up to the contract. whereas if he signs elsewhere he will become an all-star

Not sure if you're just joking, but who are the Bulls that left to become all-stars?

i was maybe exaggerating, but if his profile takes the same jump as that of cam payne and bobby portis, it'll mean that he's likely getting all-star consideration

[coldfish]

The ONLY way a S&T happens is if Lauri wants to go to the S&T team and the S&T team is willing to pay Lauri what he wants and (for the most part) that he S&T team doesn't have the cap space. For example SA has the cap space. To get anything more than a 2nd round pick back, there'd need to be competition for Lauri in a S&T (ie 2 teams that Lauri would be ok going to) - highly unlikely.

Lauri is likely gone and we're very likely getting nothing back - folks need to move on.

The Bulls will not let Lauri walk.

But they also will not keep him.

AK has shown that he makes the deals that he wants to make, and does not let fear force him into a decision.

If he doesn't get the deal that he wants in a S&T, he will resign Lauri and look to trade him later.

Matching an offer is a definite possibility if the price is sub $15M, after that, it might boom-a-rang and become an untradeable contract. The other possibility, and, honestly the best one for the Bulls would be if Lauri accepts the QO.

Its kind of funny but a year ago the QO was a legit threat that could be used by his agent. Based on how things went after the trade, the QO could be terrible for Lauri and is not a bargaining chip at all.

[dougthonus]

clearly based on recent patterns if we re-sign lauri he will fail to live up to the contract. whereas if he signs elsewhere he will become an all-star

Not sure if you're just joking, but who are the Bulls that left to become all-stars?

i was maybe exaggerating, but if his profile takes the same jump as that of cam payne and bobby portis, it'll mean that he's likely getting all-star consideration

Payne was here for a hot second and also had other stops, including China, before he got his crap together and landed in Phoenix and started playing better. That seems like someone that just needed a good knock in the face that his NBA life was ending to get his crap together. He suited up a total of 67 games for Chicago.

Bobby Portis's per minute / total stats and much of his advanced stats are nearly identical now to his final year in Chicago. He doesn't seem like a markedly better player, just a guy that made small incremental improvements that would be expected of a guy to make between the ages of 22 and 25.

I definitely don't think there is any trend at all of Bulls players leaving and then going on some totally unexpected career path.

[dougthonus]

The Bulls will not let Lauri walk.

But they also will not keep him.

AK has shown that he makes the deals that he wants to make, and does not let fear force him into a decision.

If he doesn't get the deal that he wants in a S&T, he will resign Lauri and look to trade him later.

Matching an offer is a definite possibility if the price is sub $15M, after that, it might boom-a-rang and become an untradeable contract. The other possibility, and, honestly the best one for the Bulls would be if Lauri accepts the QO.

Its kind of funny but a year ago the QO was a legit threat that could be used by his agent. Based on how things went after the trade, the QO could be terrible for Lauri and is not a bargaining chip at all.

If we go the 2022 cap space plan, and Lauri has no real suitors, I'd be willing to pay him something like a 1 yr large money deal to improve the team next year to attract FAs.

[Leslie Forman]

The Bulls are, for better or worse, all in on Vucevic at the 5 now.

If I'm him, I really don't see any reason whatsoever to stay here. You've lost your starting spot, even if you were a starter, the guys in the starting lineup don't compliment you at all (and vice versa for that matter), and you know they've already tried to trade you and offered you a deal far below what you wanted last year.

There's just no reason for either side to prolong this charade.

[sco]

Matching an offer is a definite possibility if the price is sub $15M, after that, it might boom-a-rang and become an untradeable contract. The other possibility, and, honestly the best one for the Bulls would be if Lauri accepts the QO.

Its kind of funny but a year ago the QO was a legit threat that could be used by his agent. Based on how things went after the trade, the QO could be terrible for Lauri and is not a bargaining chip at all.

If we go the 2022 cap space plan, and Lauri has no real suitors, I'd be willing to pay him something like a 1 yr large money deal to improve the team next year to attract FAs.

What does that deal look like? Does adding a team or player option on a 2nd year or mostly non-guaranteed 2nd year help us on the trade front?

[coldfish]

Matching an offer is a definite possibility if the price is sub $15M, after that, it might boom-a-rang and become an untradeable contract. The other possibility, and, honestly the best one for the Bulls would be if Lauri accepts the QO.

Its kind of funny but a year ago the QO was a legit threat that could be used by his agent. Based on how things went after the trade, the QO could be terrible for Lauri and is not a bargaining chip at all.

If we go the 2022 cap space plan, and Lauri has no real suitors, I'd be willing to pay him something like a 1 yr large money deal to improve the team next year to attract FAs.

1+1 with a second year team option would be interesting.

Any of this discussion assumes that he has virtually no suitors. I have no idea how this is going to pan out but there are 8 teams that can offer him a contract the Bulls would not match. Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, Mavs, Raptors, Grizz, Heat and Hornets. Grizz, Knicks and Raptors have a guy at that spot. When you read around, I'm not really sure how much interest there is going to be for Lauri at a big cap figure.

[dougthonus]

Its kind of funny but a year ago the QO was a legit threat that could be used by his agent. Based on how things went after the trade, the QO could be terrible for Lauri and is not a bargaining chip at all.

If we go the 2022 cap space plan, and Lauri has no real suitors, I'd be willing to pay him something like a 1 yr large money deal to improve the team next year to attract FAs.

What does that deal look like? Does adding a team or player option on a 2nd year or mostly non-guaranteed 2nd year help us on the trade front?

I think it's like 1 year 15-20M depending what his FA market looks like, you could add a team option, but not a player option or else the player option might screw your cap room plan. You could do non guaranteed but only if fully non guaranteed or you can screw your cap room plan.

If he doesn't have a good offer and you're paying him an extra 10M over the QO, then he might take a fully non guaranteed second year to secure that extra money (would make sense for him to do so), but the utility to you is probably not very high as you wouldn't likely keep him or want him, so you'd only do it if it's entirely free. It might slightly open up some trade possibilities, but now you can't make trades for guys with non guaranteed deals and waive them, only the guaranteed salary is tradeable.

[dougthonus]

Its kind of funny but a year ago the QO was a legit threat that could be used by his agent. Based on how things went after the trade, the QO could be terrible for Lauri and is not a bargaining chip at all.

If we go the 2022 cap space plan, and Lauri has no real suitors, I'd be willing to pay him something like a 1 yr large money deal to improve the team next year to attract FAs.

1+1 with a second year team option would be interesting.

Any of this discussion assumes that he has virtually no suitors. I have no idea how this is going to pan out but there are 8 teams that can offer him a contract the Bulls would not match. Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, Mavs, Raptors, Grizz, Heat and Hornets. Grizz, Knicks and Raptors have a guy at that spot. When you read around, I'm not really sure how much interest there is going to be for Lauri at a big cap figure.

In the end, in my world, I would probably not match any contract because I'd be all about keeping my 2022 cap room open. That said, if we end up saying screw it to that with other moves and also remain over the cap then matching Lauri at a reasonable deal is an automatic. You're going to be replacing him with a vet min player if you don't match him, so might as well keep him if the deal isn't nuts.

That said, what's a fair deal for him? I'm actually thinking something around 10M per year is probably it. He looks like a backup caliber specialist rotation player. Even our offer of 12M per season last year feels kind of high for him.

I know some people still view him as having star potential, but that's a pipe dream to me. After four years, it's hard to argue he's any better than Portis, who received effectively a 1 year 15M per year deal (had a TO that was unexercised). He then signed for 2/6M this season but has vastly outplayed it.

[coldfish]

If we go the 2022 cap space plan, and Lauri has no real suitors, I'd be willing to pay him something like a 1 yr large money deal to improve the team next year to attract FAs.

1+1 with a second year team option would be interesting.

Any of this discussion assumes that he has virtually no suitors. I have no idea how this is going to pan out but there are 8 teams that can offer him a contract the Bulls would not match. Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, Mavs, Raptors, Grizz, Heat and Hornets. Grizz, Knicks and Raptors have a guy at that spot. When you read around, I'm not really sure how much interest there is going to be for Lauri at a big cap figure.

In the end, in my world, I would probably not match any contract because I'd be all about keeping my 2022 cap room open. That said, if we end up saying screw it to that with other moves and also remain over the cap then matching Lauri at a reasonable deal is an automatic. You're going to be replacing him with a vet min player if you don't match him, so might as well keep him if the deal isn't nuts.

That said, what's a fair deal for him? I'm actually thinking something around 10M per year is probably it. He looks like a backup caliber specialist rotation player.

I agree. IMO, you can pick guys like him up for the MLE in most offseasons. His only value right now is that you can match him and spend the MLE.

I also agree with your earlier comment about a 1 year deal and capspace plan. You try to pump up the team as much as possible this year and then hope to build something like Brooklyn did.

Last comment that could go anywhere: I would also be open to flipping Vuc. If a good offer comes and things aren't looking good in Chicago, go for it. Don't fall for a sunk cost fallacy.

[League Circles]

1+1 with a second year team option would be interesting.

Any of this discussion assumes that he has virtually no suitors. I have no idea how this is going to pan out but there are 8 teams that can offer him a contract the Bulls would not match. Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, Mavs, Raptors, Grizz, Heat and Hornets. Grizz, Knicks and Raptors have a guy at that spot. When you read around, I'm not really sure how much interest there is going to be for Lauri at a big cap figure.

In the end, in my world, I would probably not match any contract because I'd be all about keeping my 2022 cap room open. That said, if we end up saying screw it to that with other moves and also remain over the cap then matching Lauri at a reasonable deal is an automatic. You're going to be replacing him with a vet min player if you don't match him, so might as well keep him if the deal isn't nuts.

That said, what's a fair deal for him? I'm actually thinking something around 10M per year is probably it. He looks like a backup caliber specialist rotation player.

I agree. IMO, you can pick guys like him up for the MLE in most offseasons. His only value right now is that you can match him and spend the MLE.

I also agree with your earlier comment about a 1 year deal and capspace plan. You try to pump up the team as much as possible this year and then hope to build something like Brooklyn did.

Last comment that could go anywhere: I would also be open to flipping Vuc. If a good offer comes and things aren't looking good in Chicago, go for it. Don't fall for a sunk cost fallacy.

I like Vuc enoughand everything, but I think AK has got to quietly field offers for him. If for no other reason that basically 3 of our other top 7 assets (Thad, Lauri and Theis) all play his position. If we could get a good perimeter player at the 1 or 3 spots, flipping Vuc might be very smart. That said, his contract is pretty great for next summer and any better player is likely to be on a much larger deal or require giving up more for and mean us taking on other bad salary.

[dougthonus]

I like Vuc enoughand everything, but I think AK has got to quietly field offers for him. If for no other reason that basically 3 of our other top 7 assets (Thad, Lauri and Theis) all play his position.

All three of those guys are way worse players, so if you're flipping someone because of redundancy, you don't go out of your way to trade your best guy. That'd be like saying we should trade Zach LaVine because we have other guards on the roster.

Beyond that Thad/Theis can definitely play well with Vuc and Lauri is almost certainly gone anyway.

[League Circles]

I like Vuc enoughand everything, but I think AK has got to quietly field offers for him. If for no other reason that basically 3 of our other top 7 assets (Thad, Lauri and Theis) all play his position.

All three of those guys are way worse players, so if you're flipping someone because of redundancy, you don't go out of your way to trade your best guy. That'd be like saying we should trade Zach LaVine because we have other guards on the roster.

Beyond that Thad/Theis can definitely play well with Vuc and Lauri is almost certainly gone anyway.

Well we really can't trade Lauri or Theis for all practical purposes, and Thad is older than Vuc, shorter deal so probably would return a lot less in trade even if he were as good as Vuc, and presumably we tried and failed to trade him before the deadline. So we don't have many options. Free agency options suck and trade options are very, very limited. Trading Vuc is counterintuitive but should br looked at due to circumstances.

[sco]

I like Vuc enoughand everything, but I think AK has got to quietly field offers for him. If for no other reason that basically 3 of our other top 7 assets (Thad, Lauri and Theis) all play his position.

All three of those guys are way worse players, so if you're flipping someone because of redundancy, you don't go out of your way to trade your best guy. That'd be like saying we should trade Zach LaVine because we have other guards on the roster.

Beyond that Thad/Theis can definitely play well with Vuc and Lauri is almost certainly gone anyway.

Well we really can't trade Lauri or Theis for all practical purposes, and Thad is older than Vuc, shorter deal so probably would return a lot less in trade even if he were as good as Vuc, and presumably we tried and failed to trade him before the deadline. So we don't have many options. Free agency options suck and trade options are very, very limited. Trading Vuc is counterintuitive but should br looked at due to circumstances.

I get the concept of leaving no stone (no named Zach) unturned, but it's hard to imagine trading Vuc after trading for him would be a good look for AK around the league (especially because Vuc played well for us). I feel like this is a strategy to find a rim protecting C, so that Lauri becomes viable again at PF.

[PaKii94]

All three of those guys are way worse players, so if you're flipping someone because of redundancy, you don't go out of your way to trade your best guy. That'd be like saying we should trade Zach LaVine because we have other guards on the roster.

Beyond that Thad/Theis can definitely play well with Vuc and Lauri is almost certainly gone anyway.

Well we really can't trade Lauri or Theis for all practical purposes, and Thad is older than Vuc, shorter deal so probably would return a lot less in trade even if he were as good as Vuc, and presumably we tried and failed to trade him before the deadline. So we don't have many options. Free agency options suck and trade options are very, very limited. Trading Vuc is counterintuitive but should br looked at due to circumstances.

I get the concept of leaving no stone (no named Zach) unturned, but it's hard to imagine trading Vuc after trading for him would be a good look for AK around the league (especially because Vuc played well for us). I feel like this is a strategy to find a rim protecting C, so that Lauri becomes viable again at PF.

Could we fleece #3+ Allen for vuc?

[LateNight]

People - get used to Vuc. They want to build with him and Zach this season. They only played like 15 games together. Give them a minute

[dougthonus]

Well we really can't trade Lauri or Theis for all practical purposes, and Thad is older than Vuc, shorter deal so probably would return a lot less in trade even if he were as good as Vuc, and presumably we tried and failed to trade him before the deadline. So we don't have many options. Free agency options suck and trade options are very, very limited. Trading Vuc is counterintuitive but should br looked at due to circumstances.

Can't trade Temple, and he's older than Lavine so probably wouldn't return much. Sato is on the final year of his deal wouldn't get much for him. Only logical conclusion is to trade Zach.

You don't trade an all-star because of the existence of role players. Especially since two of those guys play very well with him (Theis / Thad) and two of them are FA (Theis / Lauri) and none of them are likely to be long term fits for the team.

You won't get as much for Vuc now as you gave up to get him because you were the high bidder last year and he now has less time on his deal and is older so is worth less.

There might be some cases where you trade Vuc, if you like your future more after a trade, but the potential presence of two FAs and one year presence of a third that are all far worse options would be a completely irrational reason to do so.

[Leslie Forman]

Last comment that could go anywhere: I would also be open to flipping Vuc. If a good offer comes and things aren't looking good in Chicago, go for it. Don't fall for a sunk cost fallacy.

There's a not insignificant chance this team isn't gonna be the next Phoenix or Atlanta and there's a fire sale in February.

It'll be pretty hard to convince ownership that they really need to pony up the money to keep this team together if they are still below .500 next season.