Evan Mobley - USC

[76ciology]

So you want to use your number 2 overall for the next Jaren Jackson or Evan Mobley?

Look at the playoffs. This league is run by guards and wings. You don’t pass up Cade or Green for Mobley. It’s a career suicide for any GM. It would be similar to when GMs select Jackson and Ayton over Trae and Doncic.

I think those GMs are doing just fine.

What really is "career suicide" is a GM making a selection based off what's "trendy" in the league instead of evaluating talent.

How many athletic big men are there who have skill and high BBIQ. Embiid and AD are the only ones I can think of, although AD's BBIQ is probably only above average rather than high. The other high BBIQ, high skill bigs are Sabonis and Jokic and neither have them could be considered athletic.

The reason we don't see a bunch of bigs dominating is because there just aren't that many of them, so to find an athletic one with skill and BBIQ is extremely rare.

I guess you could consider Giannis and Durant as well in that category, Giannis can't shoot and Durant plays small with his rebounding and post defending

I dont think its that.

It’s that offense is overpowered than defense and the best offense is generated by a wing or a guard and the offense generated by a big is usually inferior.

Then the problem is defense. The game runs a heavy pick and roll that the only way to defend is by switching. And its hard to switch with a big than it is with a wing or a guard.

You can see the results. Talented bigs are abundant in the FA. Lakers got drummond for peanuts. Nets got Blake and LMA for peanuts. There were no bid wars for Christian wood or jerami grant.

Look at how Sixers F’d up with drafting bigs every year. Sixers just got lucked out with Embiid. Hinkie wanted Wiggins that time. Imagine how disastrous it would have been.

The right way to draft is how the Lakers did it, prioritize guards, wings and offense. Your hit rate will be higher than just going blindly for BPA.

I’ll put it this way. Im a sixers fan, and I love my team. Ive been here for two decades. And if i can trade Embiid for a superstar guard or wing, I’ll take it. If Dame is only 26-27 yo, i’ll trade Embiid for Dame.

It’s just easier to build around a guard or a wing.

[tundraknight]

Watch on YouTube

So much talent and skill displayed here.

The NBA getting more elite big man talent is always a welcomed addition.

[K_chile22]

Anyone think his passing can get to the point that you run most of your offense through him Via DHOs and running things around him at the high post? It's so hard to tell with ncaa spacing and the fact that because he's uscs best scorer he got put in the post more than he will in the league

[DCasey91]

So you want to use your number 2 overall for the next Jaren Jackson or Evan Mobley?

Look at the playoffs. This league is run by guards and wings. You don’t pass up Cade or Green for Mobley. It’s a career suicide for any GM. It would be similar to when GMs select Jackson and Ayton over Trae and Doncic.

MVP - Jokic
Reigning MVP - Giannis
MVP candidate and our beloved Embiid
Starting center in the finals that crushes small ball Ayton

LBJ/Davis ... Lol Heat system in tatters. Nunn/Herro/Robinson unplayable

We had little Curry who was our most important valve got a number done by a bigger player in Huerter.

Size matters. Especially in the NBA.

Total offense nowadays is mad overrated. Look at the teams left.

They are not some otherworldly offensive team. Just really balanced on offense/defense.

Everyone thought the Nets were going to cakewalk it. Why in the world would that happen? Irving since when is he fit lol.

Top 10 offense, top 10 defense when it matters is surefire stuff... basically been that way or near enough since the beginning of time lol.

No one believed in the Jazz why? GTFO with that spam 3 ball mentality. Paper tiger stuff.

High quality two way players all day. Or be an outlier.

Have you watched Mobley?

He belongs in the Cade/Green highest tier for this class.

He’s a mix of Adebayo/Bosh. That’s a seriously high rank for this year.

[The Moose]

I think he’s a tier 1 prospect for sure, so versatile and a unique talent. Don’t think he will end up being much of a scoring threat , probably a third option, but his defence should be elite level and he has great playmaking potential as a big. His skill level is so high for someone with his size and length and he’s a very fluid athlete
He should be a top 3 lock imo

[bon]

Anyone think his passing can get to the point that you run most of your offense through him Via DHOs and running things around him at the high post? It's so hard to tell with ncaa spacing and the fact that because he's uscs best scorer he got put in the post more than he will in the league

Not worried about his passing ability at all. He can pass on the move, throw lobs, hit cutters, and passes out of double teams well. He was 3rd on USC in assists made which is kind of nuts for a college big with his usage. If his scoring gets to the point where teams have to throw an extra defender at him he becomes even more dangerous offensively.

[Roger Murdock]

I'm assuming he goes #3 to CLE and think that's a match made in heaven with Darius Garland. I think they will be so good together and really match up strengths/weaknesses well.

From a passing standpoint Garland is amazing at passing to the inside. He has one of the highest assist rates at the rim in the NBA, throws a mean lob, and gets the ball to his bigs at the perfect level for them to make quick moves. On top of that Garland is great at moving offball and finding spaces for open looks which he knocks down at 40% level. Mobley has so much potential as a passer and think there will be lots of assists going from each direction. I want my Cavs to run a more motion based offense and these two seem perfect for it. We probably wont and will just run PnR all day but these two should be good at that as well.

On the other side Mobley will really help lock down the middle and help with the switching and keeping the middle protected which we struggle at right now.

Mobley also seems like a good culture fit. Sexton/Garland/Okoro/Nance are all no-ego, gym rats, team focused players. A small market like Cleveland needs someone whos with a blue collar go-to work attitude rather than someone who wants the glamour.

[DCasey91]

Been on his train for awhile. Love me some Mobley, concerns aside, peak Bosh would go top three easy on a redraft couple of years from now.

Belongs in the tier 1 group.

I’m picking Green or him to be the best out of this class.

[WuTang_CMB]

Would love to see Mobley drop to 4 to Toronto , thats who I think Toronto is gunning for

[EMG518]

Would love to see Mobley drop to 4 to Toronto , thats who I think Toronto is gunning for

It's very possible. If Cleveland likes Suggs and the top 2 are Cade and Green. Toronto could even move up if they really wanted him.

[WuTang_CMB]

I see some Durant (im not comparin them, just the shot) in mobley too on the perimeter .. once he gets more comfortable with his shot I could see him elevate at the 3 over guys

really impressive prospect

[buzzkilloton]

Would love to see Mobley drop to 4 to Toronto , thats who I think Toronto is gunning for

I wouldnt expect him to get past the Cavs just for the fact the Cavs already have Sexton/Garland in the backcourt. Either way I think getting Suggs at 4 with a roster with as much talent as you guys is a great position to be in. Would be fitting though the Raps draft the next Chris Bosh haha.

[BostonCouchGM]

I still see more Bosh and JJJ than a center. He's 6'10" and very slim. Any team picking in the top 5 would be justified taking him with their pick including a case to be made for him going #1. I personally think he's the 3rd best prospect but I could see him going higher

[clyde21]

I still see more Bosh and JJJ than a center. He's 6'10" and very slim. Any team picking in the top 5 would be justified taking him with their pick including a case to be made for him going #1. I personally think he's the 3rd best prospect but I could see him going higher

Bosh and JJJ are both centers today

[DCasey91]

Pau Gasol would be a center nowadays it’s just how it is.

17/9.5/4/2/1 while being a certified top 10 defender in the league is a great player. Won’t surprise if he averages 4 assists a game in his prime.
Those are the magical numbers for me.

Better Adebayo or a defensive orientated Bosh I’m guessing.

His modern tangibles are extremely impressive.

I actually don’t see a clear number one option best player on a championship team in this draft.

Cade is a 2nd

Suggs might be a starting PG on a chip team

Green best scorer overall

Mobley great 2/3 piece same with Suggs and Cade and Green as kind of the heavy scorer 1a type.

Hopefully all 4 pan out as expected.

[bon]

Dunc'd On podcast:

http://nateduncannba.com/podcast-episodes/atlmil-game-6-mia-offseason-outlook-evan-mobley-scouting-report/ (45:00)

They criticised his motor, and whether his defense would translate at the NBA level.

[Roger Murdock]

I’ve seen a lot of people criticism his rebounding online but USC was one of the best rebounding teams in the country and he gets away from the hoop more than a traditional center because he covers more ground than a traditional center

[Marcus]

Gonna still hold ground with my page 4 take that this would be Timmy at this age coming into this league. If Mobes adds the same size over the next four years or so.....i'll be back for the hall. either shame or fame i'm built for it.

[Rapcity_11]

I’ve seen a lot of people criticism his rebounding online but USC was one of the best rebounding teams in the country and he gets away from the hoop more than a traditional center because he covers more ground than a traditional center

USC was #181 in DREB%.

[Roger Murdock]

I’ve seen a lot of people criticism his rebounding online but USC was one of the best rebounding teams in the country and he gets away from the hoop more than a traditional center because he covers more ground than a traditional center

USC was #181 in DREB%.

They still got 55% of the total rebounds which is extremely good. Rebound % can be misleading. For instance what makes Mobley special is that he challenges and contests shots farther from the hoop than any big man prospect in recent memory. This will decrease his chance at a rebound but increase the chance of a missed shot and in net will still improve your teams rebound % because typically 70-80% of rebounds get collected by the defense

Improving defensive FG% is typically going to improve team rebound more than having good rebounders will. This is why someone like Andre Drummond doesn’t particularly help team rebounding, he’s a bad defender and it helps teams score better.

I think the eye test shows Mobley isn’t a particularly great rebounder and that he gets bodied a bit, but I think what he does helps a team considerably more than what a typical rebounder offers.

It’s a mix calc. For instance which team is better at rebounding?

The team that gets 25% of the Orebs and 80% of the defensive rebounds? Both are insane numbers

Or the team that gets 75% of the defensive rebounds and 20% of the offensive rebounds? Both are mediocre

Well we don’t have enough info to know. If the first team shoots 40% and allows 50% they will have a lower rebound % than the second team if they allow 40% and shoot 45%