Post#338 » by Naero » Tue Jul 6, 2021 11:22 pm
The biggest test for both teams this postseason fittingly comes on the biggest stage, and whoever passes it will win their franchise its first post-merger championship. It's an improbable Finals match-up, and sadly one most will chalk up to an improbable injury endemic above all.
As brightly as both have dazzled at times, there's no glossing over how many injuries have helped pave their paths. It shouldn't asterisk either conference championship—injuries have always been a part of the game, grantedly not to this extent—but it's hard to argue they've been fully battle-tested heretofore. It's no major coincidence the two finalists have been among of the few healthy contenders this postseason.
At least until midway through the ECF, when Giannis hyperextended his knee. He was finally breaking through as a post-season performer, and now we have to worry more about his injury's possible sequelae than him faltering in this realm as he did in previous years. With a suboptimal, if not sidelined, Giannis, the talent levels are matchable enough.
Granted, Giannis's injury hasn't truly set us back yet; if anything, it might have been salutary for our Xs and Os so far. The hot-seated Budenholzer was forced to experiment with new schemes rather than let his superstar routinely initiate the offense, and we've flourished so far. How synergetically Giannis will fit into our groove when he returns—which he's recovering swiftly enough to do soon—is unknowable, but we've kept the season afloat long enough to afford him more rehab time at the very least.
We most likely won't fare better against the Suns without him than we did against the Hawks, however. Although we've caught Atlanta's defense off-guard at times with our sudden changeover, this opponent won't have the same suddenty to contend with; the well-coached, well-led Suns have undoubtedly studied the ECF well, and they have more benchmarks of the Giannis-less Bucks to formulate their gameplan with.
For starters, the Suns are well-equipped to overcome our size advantage, as they've shown against the Lakers; they can even exploit it with their pick-and-roll offense, and not any less against the slow-footed Brook Lopez and a hobbled Giannis. Not only is Phoenix one of the best three-point-shooting teams; they also have proficient mid-rangers in Chris Paul and Devin Booker, whose pull-up jumpers can also feast on our deep-drop coverage that the Hawks torched in Game 1. Budenholzer, to his credit, adjusted our P&R defense well since, having them follow and switch on screeners more aggressively; but Chris Paul is much more able-bodied to outmaneuver it than an unhealthy-footed Trae Young.
Thankfully, we have elite perimeter defenders in Jrue Holiday and PJ Tucker, but it'll take more than stingy defense to outshoot the Suns; we'll need to cash in our shots much more consistently, as simplistic as it sounds. Our predictable five-out fallback hasn't helped, but the Bucks have shot subaverage even on open (29.6%) and wide-open (32.2%) three-pointers this season. It looks like a classic case of shooter's block; and unless these inexperienced Suns also succumb to it, it could be their most decisive advantage in this series.
The Suns are not only the healthier team at the moment; they're also arguably the better one. They earned the second-best record in the league against more than enough healthy opponents, and they have yet to underachieve even relative to their undermanned opponents this postseason. They'll have their fiercest test against the Bucks, but the Suns will get over the humpe with HCA, the healthier star, and—under the aegis of their coaching staff and player-coach CP3—a smarter cerebral team culture.
Bottom-line prediction: Suns in seven.