2021 NBA Draft Thread

[KingCat]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Historically the mid to late lottery has been a pretty awesome spot to draft. This is why I find it frustrating that whenever a team lands one of these picks, the fanbase just throws its hands up in the air and supports drafting a future role-player or trading the pic for a meh veteran

[luciano-davidwesley]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Historically the mid to late lottery has been a pretty awesome spot to draft. This is why I find it frustrating that whenever a team lands one of these picks, the fanbase just throws its hands up in the air and supports drafting a future role-player or trading the pic for a meh veteran

Eg Wagner or Kispert

[yosemiteben]

I think I recall everyone saying 2021 was supposed to be a baller draft. Is that still the narrative?

I'm pretty excited to see what Mitch does, there's a bunch of guys that I'd be ok drafting and I think I trust him to not draft a total zero.

[driveandkick]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Historically the mid to late lottery has been a pretty awesome spot to draft. This is why I find it frustrating that whenever a team lands one of these picks, the fanbase just throws its hands up in the air and supports drafting a future role-player or trading the pic for a meh veteran

Eg Wagner or Kispert

Why do you say Wagner has a low ceiling?

[luciano-davidwesley]

Historically the mid to late lottery has been a pretty awesome spot to draft. This is why I find it frustrating that whenever a team lands one of these picks, the fanbase just throws its hands up in the air and supports drafting a future role-player or trading the pic for a meh veteran

Eg Wagner or Kispert

Why do you say Wagner has a low ceiling?

He moves like treacle out of the triple threat position and I wasn't that impressed with his overall skills as much as others that consider him a jack of all trades. He also has questionable athleticism.

[JMAC3]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Just to give you some more insight on this...

The number of players drafted in the range of 6-14 from 2006-2017 is 108. This is how the 108 broke down....
17 Allstars or 15%
38 Starters 35%
37 rotation guys 35%
16 busts or 15%

So you have a 50/50 shot they will be a starter or better, but pretty low chances of actually getting an all-star. About 3 All-stars are taken every two years out of the 18 selections.

If I were a GM, I would really focus on drafting a guy in this range who I know has a really good chance to become a starter and not worry so much about swinging for the fences to land an Allstar.

[JMAC3]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Just to give you some more insight on this...

The number of players drafted in the range of 6-14 from 2006-2017 is 108. This is how the 108 broke down....
17 Allstars or 15%
38 Starters 35%
37 rotation guys 35%
16 busts or 15%

So you have a 50/50 shot they will be a starter or better, but pretty low chances of actually getting an all-star. About 3 All-stars are taken every two years out of the 18 selections.

If I were a GM, I would really focus on drafting a guy in this range who I know has a really good chance to become a starter and not worry so much about swinging for the fences to land an Allstar.

Also, based on these numbers I am avoiding a trade down, even if this is considered a better draft.

Your odds of drafting rotation guy or better with picks 15-30 is 50%.

Odds of drafting a rotation guy or better with picks 6-14 is 85%.

[JMAC3]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Just to give you some more insight on this...

The number of players drafted in the range of 6-14 from 2006-2017 is 108. This is how the 108 broke down....
17 Allstars or 15%
38 Starters 35%
37 rotation guys 35%
16 busts or 15%

So you have a 50/50 shot they will be a starter or better, but pretty low chances of actually getting an all-star. About 3 All-stars are taken every two years out of the 18 selections.

If I were a GM, I would really focus on drafting a guy in this range who I know has a really good chance to become a starter and not worry so much about swinging for the fences to land an Allstar.

Also, based on these numbers I am avoiding a trade down, even if this is considered a better draft.

Your odds of drafting rotation guy or better with picks 15-30 is 50%.

Odds of drafting a rotation guy or better with picks 6-14 is 85%.

Last note, your odds of drafting an Allstar over that same stretch of time for picks 15-30 is ... 5.7%

That is right only 11 of 192 players in that 12-year span were Allstars... that is less than 1 per year.

The extra picks sound great because we all think we know which guys will be good and which will not be good, but the numbers tell a completely different story.

Trading down from 11 to two mid-late firsts is a losing play long-term by the numbers.

Odds of drafting 1 guy at 11 that is a contributor or better is 85%.......vs odds of drafting 1 contributor after pick 15 is 50%...... and odds of nailing both picks as two contributors after pick 15 is just 25%.

Lean towards the sure thing.

[Hornet Mania]

I think I recall everyone saying 2021 was supposed to be a baller draft. Is that still the narrative?

I thought that was supposed to be 2022 (or possibly 2023) if/when players are allowed to jump straight from HS again. The mythical double draft where two years worth of top talents will be available at the same time.

2021 was more hyped relative to 2020, but I think that was mostly just because 2020 was a miserable class on paper.

[driveandkick]

Just to give you some more insight on this...

The number of players drafted in the range of 6-14 from 2006-2017 is 108. This is how the 108 broke down....
17 Allstars or 15%
38 Starters 35%
37 rotation guys 35%
16 busts or 15%

So you have a 50/50 shot they will be a starter or better, but pretty low chances of actually getting an all-star. About 3 All-stars are taken every two years out of the 18 selections.

If I were a GM, I would really focus on drafting a guy in this range who I know has a really good chance to become a starter and not worry so much about swinging for the fences to land an Allstar.

Also, based on these numbers I am avoiding a trade down, even if this is considered a better draft.

Your odds of drafting rotation guy or better with picks 15-30 is 50%.

Odds of drafting a rotation guy or better with picks 6-14 is 85%.

Last note, your odds of drafting an Allstar over that same stretch of time for picks 15-30 is ... 5.7%

That is right only 11 of 192 players in that 12-year span were Allstars... that is less than 1 per year.

The extra picks sound great because we all think we know which guys will be good and which will not be good, but the numbers tell a completely different story.

Trading down from 11 to two mid-late firsts is a losing play long-term by the numbers.

Odds of drafting 1 guy at 11 that is a contributor or better is 85%.......vs odds of drafting 1 contributor after pick 15 is 50%...... and odds of nailing both picks as two contributors after pick 15 is just 25%.

Lean towards the sure thing.

Love the data/numbers. I would almost always agree that in the NBA trading down is never a good decision, and in the NFL it’s almost always a great one. But I think a lot of people look at this draft class and see a wide range of like 15 players outside of the top 6 and it’s really hard to differentiate them.

[JMAC3]

I'm liking Trey Murphy more and more. I think he's as good, if not better, than many of the wings being mocked in our range (at least in terms of translating to the NBA). Size, length, shot, tons of upside on D, high character, local product. He seems to give us more of a Mikal Bridges/3&D type out of box as opposed to the more familiar names in our range (that seem to all have at least one question mark - Keon's shot, Kispert's D, Johnson's offense/character, Moody's athleticism, etc., etc.). I know he'd be considered a big reach based on current mocks, but he seems like a great fit.

Watch on YouTube

I would probably try to snag this guy in the second round over taking Murphy in the top 15.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kessler-edwards-1.html

Watch on YouTube

[predators]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Just to give you some more insight on this...

The number of players drafted in the range of 6-14 from 2006-2017 is 108. This is how the 108 broke down....
17 Allstars or 15%
38 Starters 35%
37 rotation guys 35%
16 busts or 15%

So you have a 50/50 shot they will be a starter or better, but pretty low chances of actually getting an all-star. About 3 All-stars are taken every two years out of the 18 selections.

If I were a GM, I would really focus on drafting a guy in this range who I know has a really good chance to become a starter and not worry so much about swinging for the fences to land an Allstar.

This ignores how much more valuable it is to find an AllStar in the draft than it is pick one up in a Trade/Free Agency. We have to pay 40 million of cap-space for a borderline All Star meanwhile Golden State wins two championships with Steph Curry making less than 13 million and Klay making less than 20.

You can find starters for a sub .500 NBA team literally anywhere, we've drafted and signed a lot of them.

[Snidely FC]

Givony/ESPN updated Top 20 after Withdrawal Deadline day:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Jonathan Kuminga
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Davion Mitchell
8. James Bouknight
9. Keon Johnson
10. Franz Wagner
11. Josh Giddey
12. Jalen Johnson
13. Corey Kispert
14. Alperen Sengun
15. Usman Garuba
16. Moses Moody
17. Sharife Cooper
18. Trey Murphy
19. Isaiah Jackson
20. Kai Jones

[JDR720]

I think at 11 if you can get a starting caliber role-player you did pretty good.

Every so often you'll get a skilled "lower upside" guy who falls like Mitchell or Booker in this range too.

I'm not sure there are any of those guys, so I'm all in on the role-players.

Moody. Kisper. Wagner.

Those are probably my top 3.

[SWedd523]

I think at 11 if you can get a starting caliber role-player you did pretty good.

Every so often you'll get a skilled "lower upside" guy who falls like Mitchell or Booker in this range too.

I'm not sure there are any of those guys, so I'm all in on the role-players.

Moody. Kisper. Wagner.

Those are probably my top 3.

I think you're looking at it wrong

You don't shoot for a guy who's ceiling is a role player.

You shoot for a higher end guy and if he doesn't reach that, you still (hopefully) get a role player out of it.

[JDR720]

I think you're looking at it wrong

You don't shoot for a guy who's ceiling is a role player.

You shoot for a higher end guy and if he doesn't reach that, you still (hopefully) get a role player out of it.

The issue is the guys who have higher ceilings usually aren't available at 11. And if they are, there is a reason for it.

Drafts usually seem to be

1-3 or so. The can't miss stars. Zion, Cunningham, Luka etc.
4-8 or so are the guys who may or may not be good now, but have high upside. Jaren Jackson. Mo Bamba, Toppin, Knox, Bismack.
9-14 are a mix of the top guys who fell for whatever reason and older "lower upside" players. Miles, Booker, Mitchell. Vonleh, Kaminsky, PJ, Monk.

It seems like the boom or bust types bust a solid 75% of the time, yet the "low ceiling, high floor" players are at least decent. Sometimes they do a lot better than expected too. Miles is hopefully one of these guys.

Ceilings are only useful if the players have the talent/skill/IQ to make it to their ceilings. Very talented, yet dumb or lazy players, pretty much never do.

I guess the question is, what determines a players ceiling?

[luciano-davidwesley]

Givony/ESPN updated Top 20 after Withdrawal Deadline day:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Jonathan Kuminga
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Davion Mitchell
8. James Bouknight
9. Keon Johnson
10. Franz Wagner
11. Josh Giddey
12. Jalen Johnson
13. Corey Kispert
14. Alperen Sengun
15. Usman Garuba
16. Moses Moody
17. Sharife Cooper
18. Trey Murphy
19. Isaiah Jackson
20. Kai Jones

I've underlined the players that I'd be happy with drafting that are realistically in our range. Anyone in the top 6 is not realistic IMO.

[KingCat]

Just started a small project revolving around draft pick success rate in the NBA.

I used data from drafts 2006-2017 (new draft data is too incomplete) to determine the relative success rate for each draft range.

Draft Range 1-5
Success rate was determined by if a player has made an all-star game.
Success Rate of 40% or on average 2/5 yearly.

Draft Range 6-14
Success rate was determined by if a player was a starter for his team.
Success Rate of 51%

Draft Range 15-30
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 49%

Draft Range 31-40
Success was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 36%

Draft Range 41-60
Success rate was determined by if a player was a rotation player for his team.
Success Rate of 15%

Starts and Minutes averaged per season were used to determine eligibility.

Just to give you some more insight on this...

The number of players drafted in the range of 6-14 from 2006-2017 is 108. This is how the 108 broke down....
17 Allstars or 15%
38 Starters 35%
37 rotation guys 35%
16 busts or 15%

So you have a 50/50 shot they will be a starter or better, but pretty low chances of actually getting an all-star. About 3 All-stars are taken every two years out of the 18 selections.

If I were a GM, I would really focus on drafting a guy in this range who I know has a really good chance to become a starter and not worry so much about swinging for the fences to land an Allstar.

Also, based on these numbers I am avoiding a trade down, even if this is considered a better draft.

Your odds of drafting rotation guy or better with picks 15-30 is 50%.

Odds of drafting a rotation guy or better with picks 6-14 is 85%.

"Sure things" are how you end up a treadmill team.

[LofJ]

I was all in on Devin Booker. I really liked his skillset, demeanor, and background. That said I had no idea he'd become as good as he is now. Just because you're confident someone will be solid in the NBA, it doesn't mean that they can't be better than that (or worse for that matter).

Despite having a bias against unskilled athletes (hello MKG/Biz), there are some athletes in this draft that are mature with great demeanor. Keon Johnson and Jonathan Kuminga both have that going for them. Sometimes you get a Kawhi, Mitchell, Giannis, or Brown; and other times you get a Winslow, MKG, or Dunn.

So my only rule is that NBA GMs should always stay away from immature players (your Jabaris, Bagleys, Beasleys, Okafors, Russells, Jacksons, etc.). It almost never works out, regardless of how talented, skilled, and athletic they are. I don't know if Jalen Johnson falls into this category (there are also rumors about Scottie Barnes), but good NBA GMs should make it a top priority to do that homework.

[predators]

I'm on the anybody but Davion Mitchell/Corey Kispert bandwagon. Pretty meh on Wagner/Giddey/Kai Jones, but I think could do gold medal level mental gymnastics and convince myself they were great picks.

Moodey would be my ideal guy, Jalen Johnson would probably be #2 even with the red flags that admittedly make me think there is 95% chance he doesn't work out (I'm here the 5% though), and I'm intrigued enough by Usman Garuba\Sengun to think they have value at 11.

Moodey just seems like the guy GMs are overthinking or the mock draft guys are getting fed bad info about him falling. Dude is big for his position, got buckets, and took his team to the tourney as freshmen. He has basically identical criticisms as SGA had coming out except he shot volume from outside. I felt the same about Mitchell (different criticisms though) and Romeo Langford, who's had wrist injuries but has not been good offensively when he's played. I just don't think explosive athleticism matters as much when you are way longer( ie bigger) than the guys guarding you.

I'm mentally prepared to draft Moodey, see him put on a hornets hat, than immediately see him traded for for Kispert or Mitchell and an old fax machine on draft night. I can't be hurt anymore after the SGA trade.