U19 World Cup Preview: Team Canada featuring Elijah Fisher, Caleb Houstan, Ben Mathurin, and more

[Hair Canada]

Some final thoughts about the U19 Canadians


A DISAPPOINTMENT?

I saw some people were disappointed with the bronze, saying we should have won it all, like we did in 2017. While I’m glad to see that we’re setting our expectations high, I don’t think that’s merited. While we more or less matched the US in terms of starting-5 talent, the US was just much deeper (we got 1 point from the bench in the semi-finals) and that eventually was the deciding factor. So yes, we could have beaten them on a given day, but it was the more unlikely result (not to mention that we were not that far ahead of other teams, particularly France, but also Serbia, Spain, Australia, and Lithuania). Also, comparing to the 2017 is not very fair. That US team was not that strong as well (arguably even weaker), but I think we would have lost 9 out of 10 games against them (luckily, the SF happened to be the 10th one).

And that tournament, more generally, was quite weak. Italy, which we beat in the finals, did not have a single NBA prospect and none of their players is a European standout four years later. Spain, which finished 4th and beat Canada in the early stateg, is a similar story. In fact, beyond the US (with fairly mediocre NBA players like PJ Washington, Diallo, Reddish, and Prichard), I can think of only two NBA players coming out of this championship -- Barrett and Hachimura (playing for a weak Japanese team). It's already claer that this tournament is going to produce much more talent, including potential all stars like the amazing French talent Vic and Chet Hlmgren, but also the Australian Daniels, the Spanish Rodriguez (and possibly Nunez), the Serbian Jovic, and the Lithuanian Tubelis.

So I choose to look at the positive. We’re not swimming in medals and while you can hope this becomes more of a regularity, any medal should be celebrated. And beyond the impressive talent (more below), I was also impressed with something I already mentioned earlier – the resiliency of this team. For years now, we’ve been folding every time an inferior but more cohesive team put some pressure on us. We all know it happened with the senior team, but it was also the case with our junior teams, with many talented teams missing a medal with disappointing losses to teams like Turkey, Croatia, or Puerto Rico.

Well, this team was different. Out of the 7 games in this championship, 3 were blowouts (Japan, Senegal and Puerto Rico). But in all of the other 4 we came back from behind in the second half. Against Lithuania in the group stage, we were down 14 in the middle of the third and came back to win it. Facing Spain, in the QF, we were down 4 in the final quarter and it was close till the end but we had some clutch performances to take it. Against Serbia, in the bronze medal game, we were down 11 in the third but didn't freak out and were able to regroup. And even against the US we made two impressive runs: one from 15 down to only 1, and the other at the end of the game, from -20 to a 6-point margin at the end. Moreover, we did all that without anyone playing phenomenal basketall that exceeded earlier expectations from them (perhaps with the exception of Edey and a bit Osuwu-Anane), and while generally shooting the ball really poorly from deep, which can really get to a team and become deflating.

Altogether, this is the kind of fighting winning culture that you hope we’re building, where, like the US, we know that we are the better more talented team and even when trailing we maintain our belief that we’re going to come from behind and win it. Psychology is a big part of this game. And I know the Victoria qualifiers ended up being a huge disappointment, but you could also see it there in the games against Greece and in the incredible run at the end of the game against the CR (which unfortunately was not enough).


SCOUTING

As for individual performances, Blake Murphy wrote an excellent scouting report here:

https://theathletic.com/2687544/2021/07/11/scouting-reports-on-next-wave-of-canadian-nba-prospects-after-winning-bronze-at-fiba-u19-world-cup/

I agree with just about everything that Blake has written (and more generally, he's a fantastic writer, who makes it well worth paying for The Athletic even if he's the only one you'll read, which should not be the case). So I see no need to write anything too lengthy. Just a few additional thoughts about some of the more intriguing Canadian prospects:

Edey. Our best and most consistent player in this championship, so I was glad to see he got recognized for it with a spot on the all-tournament’s team (which was a bit weird, as it included 4 bigs and three 7-footers). I think I’m willing to come out and say it now: He’s a future NBA player, despite the serious lack of fit with today’s game. The reason I feel this way is the huge improvements he’s been able to make in just three years of playing basketball, including over the last year. I agree with Blake that he could still become more assertive on the offensive end (basically, try to dunk almost everything while catching a body) and I think he will be with more experience. He also has potential to develop a bit of a pick-and-pop game as he has decent touch on his free throws. But the swing skill remains on the defensive end. Can he hold his own in the P&R? It certainly wasn’t easy in this championship, but you already see a big improvement compared with the start of the year at Purdu. He's much less foul-prone and shows better coverage and quickness in stepping out of the paint and trying to stay with his guy (still work to do with that one). and I believe that with more playing time and repetitions he might be passable one day, even though it's always going to remain a bit of a weakness. Once he gets there, I see at the very least a limited Boban-like role for him in the NBA, and potentially even more. Even if it doesn’t pan out, he’ll still have a great career in Europe and hopefully with the national team.

Nembhard. Another FIBA tournament where Ryan finishes as the lead passer despite some struggles in the early games. Similarly to Edey, I can see a role for him, in a Tyus-Jones-like role from the bench. A reliable second or third PG option, who brings some energy, together with toughness and pushing the pace, while staying reliable and team-oriented. The perimeter shooting was quite encouraging here, as well as the floater game, which got stronger toward the end of the tournament. These are the two kinds of shots he might realistically be able to pull off at the NBA level. I’ll say it clearly: despite the significant difference in height, I like him as a player and believe in him more than I do in his older brother. Like Edey, he’ll have a great college career and if it doesn’t work with the NBA, he’ll have an excellent European career and should be a very good option for the SMNT for years.

Houstan. Should we be worried about the perimeter shooting? I think not. I think Caleb got into a bit of a slump, which happens sometimes (similar to what happened with Barrett at the beginning of the NBA season). And then, trying to show that it didn’t get into his head, it actually did. He reminded me a bit of a gambler who keeps believing the next hand is the one that's going to get him out of the slump. And like a gambler, it got to a point where he was overdoing it, taking some foolish “risky” shots and even missing widely. But you got to love two things: one, the confidence to keep trying (even when it was not that wise) and two, the fact that it completely did not affect the other aspects of his game. Many other players would have just caved in and become passive. But he didn’t let it affect his great defense, and also found ways to contribute and make winning plays offensively. As Blake said, if I’m a Michigan fan, I come out of this encouraged, seeing my guy making a big impact on the game even when his signature skill abandons him.

Mathurin. An up-and-down tournament, but he finished it strongly and overall showed some positive signs for next year at Arizona. I particularly liked the relentless attack mentality that he showed against both the US and Serbia (and also Japan, but that’s not much of a measure). Used his shooting threat to attack the rim boldly, and while he didn’t always finish efficiently and did not often pass out of closeouts, he showed his athleticism and strength, which offer a very good base to build on. He almost didn’t do that in Arizona in the half-court game, so hopefully we see much more of it this year. If he can do it consistently, he’s a lottery prospect. Given that he can shoot, penetrate, and have great physicals, and that he also showed he can play much better defense here than he did in his rookie year, decision making remains the biggest thing to work on. I think there’s a part of it that has to do with the handle, which is still not very crisp. But there’s also just a matter of reading the game better. In particular, he frequently hesitates to shoot the open 3, in favor of a tougher contested 3 (which he still manages to make sometimes) or penetrating into the woods. More trust in his shot and making the simple play would be great to see, as well as better passing out of closeouts. But overall, a positive and encouraging performance for Ben and I remain quite high on him.

O-Max. There's something a bit frustrating about what he manages to do with his fantastic tools (length, strength, mobility, and great athleticism, together with decent handle and shooting). It doesn’t quite translate to consistent production yet and on the defensive end, he’s also not yet fully locking opponents despite good energy and tools. I like to think that it’s a matter of maturity and something clicking, and he’ll be able to develop into another version of Brissett with time, but there’s no guarantee this will happen. Still, the potential is certainly there and hopefully he can unlock it at some point.

Fisher. Blake said it very well, and I also wrote about it earlier here. I think this tournament showed that we’re not talking a Barrett/Wiggins kind of potential here, and that’s just fine as long as fans and media people realize it and adjust their expectations. Fisher’s defense was quite encouraging and he showed what he can do in the open court (which we already knew) or against physically inferior opponents. But the game against the US was a reality check. He’s really not there from a skill-set POV and I agree with Blake that it hasn’t improved substantially over the last two years (though, in his defense, he hasn’t played much competitive basketball during this time). I would really like him to get out of the comfort zone that is playing under Ro Russell and go play in the US, in an environment that challenges him more to improve his skill and maybe work differently on his shooting. I think he’s still a future leaguer if he can keep improving, but probably not a top-5 pick. Which, again, is just fine if you just stop expecting the next savior (which we also don’t really need).


Well, that still got quite long. Guess I’m not very good in writing shortly. But that’s about it for me from an individual standpoint. I’d be quite surprised if any of the others ever gets into the big league and that includes Bediako, though he might still surprise, as he had his ups and downs playing FIBA basketball. Owusu-Anane was certainly a pleasant surprise and should be a nice player for Brown next year, but I can’t see true NBA potential there.

And while pretty much all the bench was disappointing, Brown-Ferguson was especially so for me because he’s the one guy besides Bediako (and maybe the very raw Hill) who actually has the physical tools to get to the next level. Just very bad feel for the game and awareness. I already mentioned it, but it was evident again in the bronze medal game against Serbia. In less than three minutes of play, he managed to have an offensive foul in the last play of the first quarter that led to a 5-point swing, which got the Serbs back in it. and then, he started the second quarter with a silly and-one foul not moving his feet, but still committing the foul nad the Serbs were on their way to their big run (which, to be fair, was certainly not his fault). Part of it is on the coaches for even letting him play in a competitive game. I don’t think we had a very good coaching performance in this tournament and managing playing time was part of it. But I think eventually, it’s mainly on Brown-Ferguson who just didn’t show he has what it takes to play basketball at the highest levels (sorry to be picking on him, but that’s just how it is). We could have had a more helpful player out there, ideally another PG, and if not I would certainly prefer someone like Parolin, who got cut last minute.


But back to the positive: it's going to be a pleasure following these guys over the next decade-plus, and I'm hoping to see quite a few of them suiting up for the SMNT in the future. Who knows, they might just still be able to justify the hefty title of "the most talented youth Canadian team ever".

[mojo13]

Thanks for the wrap up, all the game reports and preview here. And everyone's contribution here. Excellent thread.

[ItsDanger]

Surprise: Prosper-he has potential as a rotation player in NBA.
Disappointment: Bediako-passive, poor positioning, but all the physical tools to be a 1st rnd pick.

On Fisher, this past 12+ months has hurt his on court development but he's physically matured. His intangibles like court awareness and defensive intensity was impressive (he turned that game vs Lithuania around). Lacks confidence in his shot. I see ball handling as his weakness. Not just offhand but controlling the tempo on offense and not 100% going one direction. This tournament gave him a measuring stick where he can learn from.

On Edey, still raw, not even close to final form. This allowed him to be more of a leader on offense. He wants a face up shot but he should also work on jump hook and its counter. He has soft hands so improvement is possible.

[DreamTeam09]

Ino some of the handlers around Fisher and some of the kids he's played against and I come across with the same reality.

He's definitely better than the competition, but his handlers are purposely keeping him in Canada and trying to replicate the Jamal Murray route.

He could be playing in the states but they don't want him to...

As far as the skill level being behind most, I can see that too because everyone he plays against says he has an attitude issue which will definitely stunt his growth

[TrueNorth31]

I still find Edey to be rather intriguing. Here's what Grange said about him in today's column.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nba/article/biggest-game-antetokounmpos-career-pulls-bucks-back-series-game-3/

"It will be interesting to see what his basketball future ultimately holds. The value of traditional bigs has never been lower in the NBA, but there is still a place for them. If I was Edey I’d make Brook Lopez my role model. Lopez is massive, but no gazelle. He’s been able to transition from being a low-post, first option to being a complimentary offensive player who can shoot threes when open while still finishing in the paint. But what Lopez does very well as a ‘traditional’ big is guard well in drop coverage.

The Bucks don’t ask Lopez to chase guards on the perimeter. They keep him in the lane. But Lopez isn’t stationary. He does a great job of bluffing to the ball-handler while keeping tabs on the big man rolling, and being ready to protect the rim also. It’s the art of being two places in once. Edey has got miles to go before he’s NBA ready. He needs to develop the ability to finish with both hands in the paint; square-up and shoot from at least 15-18 feet and be a good free-throw shooter. But get all that down and it will be his ability to defend like the Bucks’ Lopez that will determine his NBA future."

We'll see . He's so hard to assess because of his late start in basketball ( he was a hockey/baseball player ). He certainly has good hands and physicality. Edey has good touch -73% shooter on free throws at Purdue last season, so maybe he can start hitting the odd jumper. If he can just increase his footspeed even 5-10% maybe NBA ? If not certainly Europe with no defensive 3 second rule. He could be at least as good as Balvin who carved us up ( leading rebounder in the ACB last year ). It's hard to believe , but given our dearth of bigs , Edey's development is probably more crucial to Canada's future than that of some of our current NBA players.

[Hair Canada]

For me, many of the assessments of Edey fail to take into account the huge jump he's already made in his game in a matter of only 3 years. I see no reason to think that this is his ceiling.

I'm slightly bummed for him that Tervion Williams decided to come back for his senior year at Purdue and Zach will only be coming off the bench as his backup next year. He'd probably be starting in just about any other NCAA team. But maybe that's okay and he'll profit from being the extra factor in what is shaping up ta be a potential title contenter.

[Hair Canada]

ESPN's Jonathan Givony on Houstan, Mathurin, and Edey:

Caleb Houstan | 6-8 | SF | Michigan | Canada | Age: 18.5

Houstan had an outstanding tournament, leading Canada to a bronze medal and showcasing an all-around game that should make him one of the best two-way players in college basketball as a freshman.

Known as a spot-up shooter earlier in his career, Houstan struggled badly with his jumper (11-of-58 from 3, 19%) in Latvia, but showed impressive versatility as a ball handler, passer and finisher, attacking the rim relentlessly, playing through contact, extending gracefully for layups with both hands around the basket and coming up huge for Canada late in games on several occasions.

Houstan was also one of the most impactful defenders at the tournament, demonstrating elite awareness off the ball as well as the ability to get up and guard smaller players with his quick feet and tough-minded approach.

Houstan's shooting percentages will likely look better in a more compact role at Michigan, and NBA teams will surely be attracted to the versatility he brings on the wing as well as his cerebral approach. He made a case to be considered a potential top-five pick next year.


Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 | SG | Arizona | Canada | Age: 19.0

A one-man roller-coaster ride from game to game in terms of consistency and approach, Mathurin had a sensational performance in the bronze-medal game (31 points) that demonstrated how impactful a two-way player he can be when he's operating at full potential.

Mathurin didn't shoot as well at this tournament (10-of-29, 34.5%) from beyond the arc as he did at Arizona last season (46%) but was able to take on more offensive responsibility. He dropped impressive glimpses of talent as a creator, at times changing speeds on the perimeter and finishing at the rim with his left hand. Still, Mathurin has some things to prove in terms of playmaking, knowledge of the game and overall decision-making, as he went through long stretches at times where he seemed to be overthinking things and struggled to make his presence felt.

Defensively, Mathurin was similarly inconsistent, at times showing tremendous energy and intensity sliding his feet and containing on the perimeter, but also having too many moments where he looked detached from his team, failing to communicate with teammates and looking a step slow in terms of his awareness off the ball.

NBA scouts in Latvia sounded split on their evaluation of Mathurin, largely depending on which game they caught, and it seems he has plenty to prove as a sophomore to live up to his potential lottery billing.


Zach Edey | 7-4 | C | Purdue | Canada | Age: 19.1

Edey led the tournament in PER with a monster per-40 stat line of 25.6 points, 23.9 rebounds and 3.9 blocks. At 7-4, 280 pounds, there wasn't a single player at this tournament physically equipped to slow him down inside the paint, and likely won't be one in the Big Ten next season either.

More than just a giant, Edey impressed with the skill level he displayed around the basket, his terrific hands and instincts as a rebounder, and the nonstop intensity level he brought as a competitor. He understandably ran out of gas after playing a brutal seven games in nine days -- while taking a constant pounding due to his style of play -- but continued to put forth maximum effort in everything he did regardless. Players in Edey's mold aren't exactly what the NBA is looking for anymore, but if he continues to improve his defensive technique and awareness while rounding out his offensive skill set, there could certainly be a place for him in a Boban Marjanovic-type role. In the meantime, he's certain to emerge as one of the most productive players in the college game in the coming years.

[ItsDanger]

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[TheFutureMM]

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Love this interview - thanks for posting it.

Lots of things to love here: work ethic, communication, desire to get better. One of the key things though was his confidence - he knows how good he is and how much better he can get. I'm rooting for him now, like this kid a lot.

[Hair Canada]

Ye, Edey seems like a bright young kid, with a good balance of confidence, maturity, and recognition of where he's at and what he still needs to work on. We can keep debating the NBA fit, but it seems pretty clear that he should be an important future piece for Team Canada playing FIBA basketball.