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dgr81 wrote:G League Ignite Draft Prospect Isaiah Todd is canceling workouts with teams owning late first-round picks — such as the Jazz — because he has focused on visits with teams with lottery picks, sources said.
https://theathletic.com/2703448/2021/07/13/sixers-opening-up-ben-simmons-trade-talks-knicks-interested-in-collin-sexton-plus-more-nba-news/
FRIENDLY SUGGESTIONS
JALEN SUGGS
GONZAGA
JALEN GREEN
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JONATHAN KUMINGA
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DRAFT PICKS
4
Toronto’s own first-round pick
46
From Grizzlies via Kings in the 2021 trade that sent Terence Davis to Sacramento
47
From Warriors via Pelicans via Jazz in the 2021 trade that sent Matt Thomas to Utah
THE RAPTORS FACE ONE OF THIS SEASON’S MOST INTERESTING CROSSROADS: Do they re-sign Kyle Lowry and attempt to mount one last hurrah behind the biggest star in franchise history? Or do they part with their favorite son in favor of a rebuild that’s been staring them in the face since Kawhi Leonard left? Chances are Toronto leans toward the latter scenario, which could trigger a full-scale makeover. Pascal Siakam is 27 years old, making him more likely to be a trade chip than a cornerstone of the next movement. With the fourth overall pick in this draft, and young talent like OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet already in tow, Masai Ujiri could be ready to tear things down in hopes of building another title team in the future. But the Raptors have yet to extend their longtime front office lead, creating some confusion about the team’s direction. Jalen Suggs feels like a particularly great fit for the Raptors’ brand of basketball, but Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga could also be great fits next to Anunoby and FVV.
The narrative is primed to go. The greatest Raptor ever, a 35-year-old point guard, is a free agent and a decent bet to leave the team he has been with since 2012. In his place, a 19- or 20-year-old guard, taken with the fourth overall selection the Raptors lucked into in last month’s draft lottery.
You can see why it would make some sense. Kyle Lowry has played at least 34 minutes over the last three seasons. Fred VanVleet has averaged about 36 over the last two. High lottery picks become franchise priorities quickly, and the Raptors will need to get whoever they pick on the floor. With all due respect to the G League, the bulk of that time is likely to be at the NBA level. That is why in many mock drafts you have seen the sentiment that whether the Raptors take Jalen Green from the G League Ignite program or Jalen Suggs from Gonzaga — the latter is probably the best bet to be around at No. 4 from the “big four” prospects, at least two-plus weeks out from the draft — have mentioned the notion that the Raptors could be finding their “Lowry replacement,” therefore making it easier to let Lowry leave in free agency.
I’m not sure that is quite right. First off, the Raptors already have a replacement for Lowry, and it’s VanVleet. Spiritually, stylistically and physically, there is a lot of overlap between the long-time teammates, and if we need to indulge in the idea of baton-passing, there is no need to overthink it. Secondly, the Raptors’ atypical position for a high-lottery team changes the calculus. Namely, the Raptors have a reasonable hope of being a competitive team next season. (If you want to punt on that notion entirely, a Pascal Siakam trade becomes more appealing, too. It is not the Raptors’ most likely path, though.) No matter who the Raptors select, some veteran fortification will be necessary. Whether that is Lowry himself, a potential return for Lowry in a sign-and-trade or what they do with the cap space his departure creates remains to be seen, but to think that the draft decision should directly impact the Lowry decision is incorrect.
There will be some impact, because a roster is essentially a living organism, with only so many resources to serve all of the parts, both in terms of money and minutes. Until we hear otherwise, though, the Raptors will continue to employ a strategy that weighs the present and the future relatively equally, with the scale tipping one way or the other depending on the year. As exciting as getting an uber-talented young guard might be at the fourth pick, such a selection rarely yields immediate results.
In the 15 drafts since 2006 — coincidentally, the year Memphis took Lowry 24th — there have been 20 guards picked as underclassmen between the second and sixth selections. (I am including Ricky Rubio and Dante Exum, international players who were chosen when they were teenagers, although Rubio did not come to the NBA for another two years, which is why only his rookie season is the only one listed below.) There have been players who have become stars quickly, such as Russell Westbrook and Trae Young. There have been busts, such as Jonny Flynn and Dion Waiters — sorry Syracuse. More often than not, though, you get players who progress in fits and starts, and struggle in their rookie years. Some more typical examples include Mike Conley, the fourth pick in 2007 after one year at Ohio State, and Jaylen Brown, the third pick in 2016 after a year at Cal. Clearly, the Raptors would, or at least should, be really happy to get that quality of player with the pick. However, it took both a while to get to the production level of a core player on a good team, and the path there was hardly a straight line.
This list of players covers a range of outcomes, as well as a range of team-specific contexts. Obviously, each player/team relationship is unique unto itself, so it is entirely possible that if the Raptors pick Suggs (or Green), he could be the most productive player of this group. The Raptors got here knowing lottery odds however, so it is wise to keep playing the percentages, and knowing what is likely: getting a good, maybe really good player who isn’t ready to make a huge difference right away.
That is why the Raptors cannot go in with an “if A, then B” thought process with their top pick and Lowry’s free agency, which will officially begin Aug 2. The Lowry decision, to the extent that they control it, is essential in the short-term welfare of the team.
Even in what most people can admit was a diminished version of himself, Lowry was a very productive player last year, recording 0.124 win shares per 48 minutes, resulting in 4.1 win shares over 46 games. Both were his lowest marks as a Raptor.
Still, the per-minute mark matched James Harden’s for the best of any of the above-listed players in their rookie seasons, and the total was below only Harden and Tyreke Evans. Win shares is not the end-all-be-all statistic, but no catch-all statistic actually lives up to its name. Lowry’s calling card in Toronto has always been impacting winning, and even a lesser version of Lowry was doing that at a fairly high level last year, and substantially more than you can reasonably expect any rookie to do next year, especially if he is pressed into high-leverage minutes against the opposition’s best players immediately. Even if you would expect Lowry’s production to wane as the years go on, which won’t necessarily be the case, he has been producing above expected levels for quite a while now.
That is part of the case for keeping Lowry, no matter who the Raptors pick. In Lowry and VanVleet, you have a successful backcourt that can defend above its size. Having both of them around would not preclude the Raptors from playing the two veterans and the rookie together, given that Suggs and Green are both taller than the incumbent 6-footers. It would, on the other hand, allow the Raptors to minimize the high-stress situations in which they would have to immerse the rookie. In other words, the Raptors would only have to throw the rookie in the deep end when it is desirable and convenient for both the team and the player. They would not be forced into it.
Additionally, the rookie would help preserve Lowry, who the Raptors surely would not want pushing 35 minutes per game during the regular season in the year he turns 36. The same can be said of VanVleet, who hits the floor hard as much as any player in the league, and has the bruises and lingering injuries to show for it. A backcourt rotation of VanVleet, Lowry, Green/Suggs and a presumably re-signed Gary Trent Jr., with Malachi Flynn serving as No. 5, might be undersized, but it would also be dangerous, prolific and tough. Having the first four players eating up about half of the Raptors’ total minutes would be a strong position from which to operate.
Saying that, the roster construction would not be ideal, just as it wasn’t last year. The Raptors will have to find a way to address the frontcourt generally, and centre specifically. That might require moving on from Lowry, and pushing the rookie and Trent into bigger roles next year. That could work out, too: It won’t be the broad strokes that determine how this offseason goes for the Raptors, it will be the specifics. It will be the details.
“Honestly, we’ve always been a group that takes talent first,” Dan Tolzman, the Raptors’ assistant general manager and vice president of player personnel, said last week. “The best available players are usually who we go with. We’ve never really made draft selections based on the current roster, because there are so many uncertainties. … We could have our whole core lined up to draft for someone to plug-in, and then a blockbuster trade comes and all of a sudden we’ve got holes all over the floor. So it’s never something that, at least, we try to factor in when we’re gonna select anybody.”
Fit matters more with free agencies and trades, when you tend to be leaning short-term versus long-term, than it does in the draft. Still, the same theory holds: Talent is paramount, and you use the rest of your resources to make the team as complete as possible. So long as the Raptors have one eye on the here and now, though, Lowry’s return at a price both sides can live with has to be considered, no matter whose name Adam Silver calls on July 29.
The narrative is primed to go. The greatest Raptor ever, a 35-year-old point guard, is a free agent and a decent bet to leave the team he has been with since 2012. In his place, a 19- or 20-year-old guard, taken with the fourth overall selection the Raptors lucked into in last month’s draft lottery.
You can see why it would make some sense. Kyle Lowry has played at least 34 minutes over the last three seasons. Fred VanVleet has averaged about 36 over the last two. High lottery picks become franchise priorities quickly, and the Raptors will need to get whoever they pick on the floor. With all due respect to the G League, the bulk of that time is likely to be at the NBA level. That is why in many mock drafts you have seen the sentiment that whether the Raptors take Jalen Green from the G League Ignite program or Jalen Suggs from Gonzaga — the latter is probably the best bet to be around at No. 4 from the “big four” prospects, at least two-plus weeks out from the draft — have mentioned the notion that the Raptors could be finding their “Lowry replacement,” therefore making it easier to let Lowry leave in free agency.
I’m not sure that is quite right. First off, the Raptors already have a replacement for Lowry, and it’s VanVleet. Spiritually, stylistically and physically, there is a lot of overlap between the long-time teammates, and if we need to indulge in the idea of baton-passing, there is no need to overthink it. Secondly, the Raptors’ atypical position for a high-lottery team changes the calculus. Namely, the Raptors have a reasonable hope of being a competitive team next season. (If you want to punt on that notion entirely, a Pascal Siakam trade becomes more appealing, too. It is not the Raptors’ most likely path, though.) No matter who the Raptors select, some veteran fortification will be necessary. Whether that is Lowry himself, a potential return for Lowry in a sign-and-trade or what they do with the cap space his departure creates remains to be seen, but to think that the draft decision should directly impact the Lowry decision is incorrect.
There will be some impact, because a roster is essentially a living organism, with only so many resources to serve all of the parts, both in terms of money and minutes. Until we hear otherwise, though, the Raptors will continue to employ a strategy that weighs the present and the future relatively equally, with the scale tipping one way or the other depending on the year. As exciting as getting an uber-talented young guard might be at the fourth pick, such a selection rarely yields immediate results.
In the 15 drafts since 2006 — coincidentally, the year Memphis took Lowry 24th — there have been 20 guards picked as underclassmen between the second and sixth selections. (I am including Ricky Rubio and Dante Exum, international players who were chosen when they were teenagers, although Rubio did not come to the NBA for another two years, which is why only his rookie season is the only one listed below.) There have been players who have become stars quickly, such as Russell Westbrook and Trae Young. There have been busts, such as Jonny Flynn and Dion Waiters — sorry Syracuse. More often than not, though, you get players who progress in fits and starts, and struggle in their rookie years. Some more typical examples include Mike Conley, the fourth pick in 2007 after one year at Ohio State, and Jaylen Brown, the third pick in 2016 after a year at Cal. Clearly, the Raptors would, or at least should, be really happy to get that quality of player with the pick. However, it took both a while to get to the production level of a core player on a good team, and the path there was hardly a straight line.
This list of players covers a range of outcomes, as well as a range of team-specific contexts. Obviously, each player/team relationship is unique unto itself, so it is entirely possible that if the Raptors pick Suggs (or Green), he could be the most productive player of this group. The Raptors got here knowing lottery odds however, so it is wise to keep playing the percentages, and knowing what is likely: getting a good, maybe really good player who isn’t ready to make a huge difference right away.
That is why the Raptors cannot go in with an “if A, then B” thought process with their top pick and Lowry’s free agency, which will officially begin Aug 2. The Lowry decision, to the extent that they control it, is essential in the short-term welfare of the team.
Even in what most people can admit was a diminished version of himself, Lowry was a very productive player last year, recording 0.124 win shares per 48 minutes, resulting in 4.1 win shares over 46 games. Both were his lowest marks as a Raptor.
Still, the per-minute mark matched James Harden’s for the best of any of the above-listed players in their rookie seasons, and the total was below only Harden and Tyreke Evans. Win shares is not the end-all-be-all statistic, but no catch-all statistic actually lives up to its name. Lowry’s calling card in Toronto has always been impacting winning, and even a lesser version of Lowry was doing that at a fairly high level last year, and substantially more than you can reasonably expect any rookie to do next year, especially if he is pressed into high-leverage minutes against the opposition’s best players immediately. Even if you would expect Lowry’s production to wane as the years go on, which won’t necessarily be the case, he has been producing above expected levels for quite a while now.
That is part of the case for keeping Lowry, no matter who the Raptors pick. In Lowry and VanVleet, you have a successful backcourt that can defend above its size. Having both of them around would not preclude the Raptors from playing the two veterans and the rookie together, given that Suggs and Green are both taller than the incumbent 6-footers. It would, on the other hand, allow the Raptors to minimize the high-stress situations in which they would have to immerse the rookie. In other words, the Raptors would only have to throw the rookie in the deep end when it is desirable and convenient for both the team and the player. They would not be forced into it.
Additionally, the rookie would help preserve Lowry, who the Raptors surely would not want pushing 35 minutes per game during the regular season in the year he turns 36. The same can be said of VanVleet, who hits the floor hard as much as any player in the league, and has the bruises and lingering injuries to show for it. A backcourt rotation of VanVleet, Lowry, Green/Suggs and a presumably re-signed Gary Trent Jr., with Malachi Flynn serving as No. 5, might be undersized, but it would also be dangerous, prolific and tough. Having the first four players eating up about half of the Raptors’ total minutes would be a strong position from which to operate.
Saying that, the roster construction would not be ideal, just as it wasn’t last year. The Raptors will have to find a way to address the frontcourt generally, and centre specifically. That might require moving on from Lowry, and pushing the rookie and Trent into bigger roles next year. That could work out, too: It won’t be the broad strokes that determine how this offseason goes for the Raptors, it will be the specifics. It will be the details.
“Honestly, we’ve always been a group that takes talent first,” Dan Tolzman, the Raptors’ assistant general manager and vice president of player personnel, said last week. “The best available players are usually who we go with. We’ve never really made draft selections based on the current roster, because there are so many uncertainties. … We could have our whole core lined up to draft for someone to plug-in, and then a blockbuster trade comes and all of a sudden we’ve got holes all over the floor. So it’s never something that, at least, we try to factor in when we’re gonna select anybody.”
Fit matters more with free agencies and trades, when you tend to be leaning short-term versus long-term, than it does in the draft. Still, the same theory holds: Talent is paramount, and you use the rest of your resources to make the team as complete as possible. So long as the Raptors have one eye on the here and now, though, Lowry’s return at a price both sides can live with has to be considered, no matter whose name Adam Silver calls on July 29.
Man, that’s a beautiful lay out for that website lol. Gorgeous.WuTang_OG wrote:https://nbadraft.theringer.com/team-needs
Team needs are now out by RingerFRIENDLY SUGGESTIONS
JALEN SUGGS
GONZAGA
JALEN GREEN
IGNITE
JONATHAN KUMINGA
IGNITE
DRAFT PICKS
4
Toronto’s own first-round pick
46
From Grizzlies via Kings in the 2021 trade that sent Terence Davis to Sacramento
47
From Warriors via Pelicans via Jazz in the 2021 trade that sent Matt Thomas to Utah
THE RAPTORS FACE ONE OF THIS SEASON’S MOST INTERESTING CROSSROADS: Do they re-sign Kyle Lowry and attempt to mount one last hurrah behind the biggest star in franchise history? Or do they part with their favorite son in favor of a rebuild that’s been staring them in the face since Kawhi Leonard left? Chances are Toronto leans toward the latter scenario, which could trigger a full-scale makeover. Pascal Siakam is 27 years old, making him more likely to be a trade chip than a cornerstone of the next movement. With the fourth overall pick in this draft, and young talent like OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet already in tow, Masai Ujiri could be ready to tear things down in hopes of building another title team in the future. But the Raptors have yet to extend their longtime front office lead, creating some confusion about the team’s direction. Jalen Suggs feels like a particularly great fit for the Raptors’ brand of basketball, but Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga could also be great fits next to Anunoby and FVV.
dgr81 wrote:
WuTang_OG wrote:tecumseh18 wrote:mtcan wrote:Barrett for Sexton makes a ton of sense...and makes it more likely the Cavs take Mobley...
Disagree. Barrett's a better prospect, and it would leave a huge hole on the wing for the Knicks.
Just take Love's salary into the Knicks' 60 mill of cap space, and maybe give up the #21 pick.
ya why tf would Knicks trade Barrett for Sexton. They love Barrett on the wing and would want to pair him with Sexton. Knicks havent had a real young PG in decades
dgr81 wrote:
RapsFanInOhio wrote:WuTang_OG wrote:tecumseh18 wrote:
Disagree. Barrett's a better prospect, and it would leave a huge hole on the wing for the Knicks.
Just take Love's salary into the Knicks' 60 mill of cap space, and maybe give up the #21 pick.
ya why tf would Knicks trade Barrett for Sexton. They love Barrett on the wing and would want to pair him with Sexton. Knicks havent had a real young PG in decades
They don’t love Barrett.
Rapsfan07 wrote:UnbelievablyRAW wrote:planetmars wrote:
Love makes $31M. Boucher makes $7M. Need a lot more than a second rounder to make that trade work.
Could be a 3 team trade and maybe Love and that second rounder to the Knicks and we take the 3rd pick
Why would the Knicks take on that much salary, lose out on their max space and only take a second rounder? Boucher isn't worth the 3rd overall pick so I'm not quite sure how this works. Knicks would just cut us out and take the pick for themselves.
PrinceAli wrote:dgr81 wrote:
That’s a garbage package lol
PrinceAli wrote:dgr81 wrote:
That’s a garbage package lol
RapsFanInOhio wrote:It’s not even that I don’t like Barnes, but he doesn’t create shots for himself and that’s the issue. It isn’t the shooting, because even if he could shoot, he still can’t create. He’s not a natural scorer, which is going to limit his ceiling in the NBA. He may have played PG in high school or whatever, but that doesn’t mean he can get a bucket when he needs to. His ceiling is closer to Aaron Gordon than it is Kawhi.
He’s a great defender, he’s aggressive, and he’s super athletic. I think he ends up being an average shooter because he’ll put the work in. My issue with picking him over guys like Suggs or even Mobley is that their shot creating upside is much higher than Barnes. I worry about this with Mobley to an extent, but he’s both bigger and has a better creating game than Barnes. If you’re bigger, it’s naturally easier to score.
I’ve got it:
Cade
Green
Suggs
Mobley
Barnes / Kuminga
And that’s mostly based on how I rate their ability to create shots. When you’re picking in the top 5, the skills that you have to aim for are shot making and self shot creating. Those skills give you the best chance to hit on a star. I’m not picking for defense or upside, I want to see how you can create buckets for yourself.
