2021 Draft Thread

[The-Power]

I’m saying size and wingspan are usually needed for defensive purposes. Mitchell proved he’ll be able to make an impact even with those limitations. Jevon is still in the league but he can’t score. I don’t think Mitchell is going to have that same problem. I think he can be similar to Fred van vleet

Yes, in college. This doesn't mean he'll make an impact in the NBA (which is not to say he's going to be a poor defender either).

Come to think of it, Jevon Carter might actually be a good comparison for Davion Mitchell. Jevon Carter also saw a sudden jump in 3P% in his last two college years (39% on good volume). Both were adored by college commentators because of their tenacious on-ball defense and awarded with the DPOY award, and both were considered leaders. Both saw playmaking duties increase in their last year, leading some people to consider them legitimate PGs. Both are obviously very undersized and have the same short wingspan, but they are still built strongly.

Of course there are differences, too. Mitchell has a higher 2P% which reflects superior athleticism or finishing ability, although it bears mentioning that Mitchell also played with much better spacing which certainly helps (he shot 47% from 2 the year before). This lead him to be more efficient – but again, Mitchell was a 50% TS just one year ago, so there are some valid concerns about sustainability. Carter was a better FT shooter consistently (with a higher FTr) and even more disruptive by the numbers, and generally filled the stat-sheet more (scored more, assisted more, rebounded more).

Even if you think Mitchell is going to better than Carter and has more translatable traits, I still think he's best drafted towards the end of the first round – or at least in the second half.

[The-Power]

By the way, if anyone wants to draft a more traditional PG that gets others involved and still doesn't cramp up the spacing, just trade back and pick Jason Preston. I actually would be fine with taking him at 14 but I doubt anyone else would be and it would also seem like a waste to not get another pick in this case (as he's not even mocked in the first round currently).

[whatisacenter]

I really like Trey Murphy III

https://hoopshype.com/lists/trey-murphy-nba-draft-interview-virginia-rice-sleepers/

Murphy was the only collegiate player who declared for the NBA draft to shoot at least 50.0 percent from the field, 40.0 percent from beyond the arc and 90.0 percent from the free-throw line. He was able to average 1.24 points per possession this past season, per Synergy, which ranked him in the 99th percentile among all D-I players.

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[lars_rosenberg]

I keep reading (and thinking myself) "I would be fine taking him at 14, not at 7".
I'm wondering if trading down could not be a good idea to save some money and maybe get an additional asset. There are so many intriguing players at a close level from #7 to the early 20s that it may be easier to get lower picks where you can pick players like Mitchell or Kispert with less anxiety.

[Onus]

I’m saying size and wingspan are usually needed for defensive purposes. Mitchell proved he’ll be able to make an impact even with those limitations. Jevon is still in the league but he can’t score. I don’t think Mitchell is going to have that same problem. I think he can be similar to Fred van vleet

Yes, in college. This doesn't mean he'll make an impact in the NBA (which is not to say he's going to be a poor defender either).

Come to think of it, Jevon Carter might actually be a good comparison for Davion Mitchell. Jevon Carter also saw a sudden jump in 3P% in his last two college years (39% on good volume). Both were adored by college commentators because of their tenacious on-ball defense and awarded with the DPOY award, and both were considered leaders. Both saw playmaking duties increase in their last year, leading some people to consider them legitimate PGs. Both are obviously very undersized and have the same short wingspan, but they are still built strongly.

Of course there are differences, too. Mitchell has a higher 2P% which reflects superior athleticism or finishing ability, although it bears mentioning that Mitchell also played with much better spacing which certainly helps (he shot 47% from 2 the year before). This lead him to be more efficient – but again, Mitchell was a 50% TS just one year ago, so there are some valid concerns about sustainability. Carter was a better FT shooter consistently (with a higher FTr) and even more disruptive by the numbers, and generally filled the stat-sheet more (scored more, assisted more, rebounded more).

Even if you think Mitchell is going to better than Carter and has more translatable traits, I still think he's best drafted towards the end of the first round – or at least in the second half.

I look at Carter in college and they just score differently and move differently. He's scoring much more off of movement, and getting catch and shoot 3s, while taking much tougher shots when he is in isolation. I watch Mitchell and he's literally in isolation and creating so much space or getting into the paint. He did get to play with more space this year, which is probably why his numbers rose up so tremendously. I do think he will need to play with a more spaced floor to reach his peak, his handles aren't elite, he needs time and space to blow by people. But if he gets to play in a 4/5 out system he'll be very hard to defend. But if the team that drafts him plays with a couple of players that can't really shoot, he'll have a tougher time, as most guards do.

Let's say he tops out as a more athletic FVV, is that guy really a late 1st? He's probably a top 10 pg or sg, wherever you want to put him. FVV is what a 1st or 2nd option on the Raptors now, his size doesn't really affect his defense or his team's defense and he's getting you buckets.

[Onus]

I really like Trey Murphy III

https://hoopshype.com/lists/trey-murphy-nba-draft-interview-virginia-rice-sleepers/

Murphy was the only collegiate player who declared for the NBA draft to shoot at least 50.0 percent from the field, 40.0 percent from beyond the arc and 90.0 percent from the free-throw line. He was able to average 1.24 points per possession this past season, per Synergy, which ranked him in the 99th percentile among all D-I players.

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Murphy is the analytics type person's dream. Got all the measureables, got all the shots statistics.

[The411]

So many intriguing choices. The most interesting one is Vrenz Bleijenbergh as he's a 6'10 Guard with dazzling passing skills. Jumper is a bit weird looking but he's a good 3 shooter and has strong ball handling for someone of his size.

[Mob Byers]

So many intriguing choices. The most interesting one is Vrenz Bleijenbergh as he's a 6'10 Guard with dazzling passing skills. Jumper is a bit weird looking but he's a good 3 shooter and has strong ball handling for someone of his size.

Woah, hadn't even heard of this guy. At first glance, seems like he'd be a great guy to have handling the ball with the second unit with Poole.

Watch on YouTube

second round guy? undrafted?

[The-Power]

I look at Carter in college and they just score differently and move differently. He's scoring much more off of movement, and getting catch and shoot 3s, while taking much tougher shots when he is in isolation. I watch Mitchell and he's literally in isolation and creating so much space or getting into the paint.

I'd have to re-watch Carter to see again how exactly his scoring game looked like but I'm obviously not saying that they are the same player. Still, one thing to note is that also Carter created a lot for himself.

Compare the percentage of assisted shots made in the different areas:
2021 Mitchell – 17.4% at the rim, 7.7% on others 2s, 60.3% on 3s
2018 Carter – 21.2% at the rim, 15.3% on other 2s, 63.6% on 3s

So Mitchell created a bit more for himself but the numbers are pretty close overall.

Let's say he tops out as a more athletic FVV, is that guy really a late 1st? He's probably a top 10 pg or sg, wherever you want to put him. FVV is what a 1st or 2nd option on the Raptors now, his size doesn't really affect his defense or his team's defense and he's getting you buckets.

I really find it hard to project anyone to develop into FVV. He's just a very unique case in terms of how he carved out a role for himself and the improvement he has shown. Still, I'd pretty strongly disagree with him being a top 10 PG or SG. I think he's (been) fairly overrated – and even then if you want to talk likely outcome, I see Mitchell as more athletic than FVV but I doubt he'll be quite at his level as a shooter (and FVV with a even a slightly worse shot is a bench player, for what it's worth).

[The-Power]

So many intriguing choices. The most interesting one is Vrenz Bleijenbergh as he's a 6'10 Guard with dazzling passing skills. Jumper is a bit weird looking but he's a good 3 shooter and has strong ball handling for someone of his size.

Woah, hadn't even heard of this guy. At first glance, seems like he'd be a great guy to have handling the ball with the second unit with Poole.

Watch on YouTube

second round guy? undrafted?

He's a player who looks awesome in his highlights but has so many rough plays in-between highlight plays. He's still a terribly inefficient scorer at 20 years old in the Belgian league, for what it's worth.

Watch on YouTube

Here you can see more of him. He's a major project. I have him as a second round pick because some team should (and will) take a flier on him but really the Warriors shouldn't be that team – and his appeal might make some team reach for him anyway.

[Onus]

I look at Carter in college and they just score differently and move differently. He's scoring much more off of movement, and getting catch and shoot 3s, while taking much tougher shots when he is in isolation. I watch Mitchell and he's literally in isolation and creating so much space or getting into the paint.

I'd have to re-watch Carter to see again how exactly his scoring game looked like but I'm obviously not saying that they are the same player. Still, one thing to note is that also Carter created a lot for himself.

Compare the percentage of assisted shots made in the different areas:
2021 Mitchell – 17.4% at the rim, 7.7% on others 2s, 60.3% on 3s
2018 Carter – 21.2% at the rim, 15.3% on other 2s, 63.6% on 3s

So Mitchell created a bit more for himself but the numbers are pretty close overall.

Let's say he tops out as a more athletic FVV, is that guy really a late 1st? He's probably a top 10 pg or sg, wherever you want to put him. FVV is what a 1st or 2nd option on the Raptors now, his size doesn't really affect his defense or his team's defense and he's getting you buckets.

I really find it hard to project anyone to develop into FVV. He's just a very unique case in terms of how he carved out a role for himself and the improvement he has shown. Still, I'd pretty strongly disagree with him being a top 10 PG or SG. I think he's (been) fairly overrated – and even then if you want to talk likely outcome, I see Mitchell as more athletic than FVV but I doubt he'll be quite at his level as a shooter (and FVV with a even a slightly worse shot is a bench player, for what it's worth).

I will say that is pretty shocking to see for Carter but he is a fair bit behind in efficiency even though he created more for himself.

I would hope that he shot better than fred being a better athlete and getting better shots. Fred is probably a tad under avg right now, but he's definitely shouldn't be a 1st option for the raptors. I just see Mitchell being able to create space which is why I think his shot is for real. He isn't always shooting with a defender draped all over him and he has to fade. I will say that his ppg is a lot lower than what it should be if he is to turn into a semi-allstar. So he does have a lot of work to do.

[DevinVassell]

Sorry but Davion Mitchell is just giving me those Johnny Flynn vibes.... I can't buy the hype at #7.

I know he can move his feet quickly but he was a 22yo defending much younger and weaker kids in college. NBA is a different beast. This draft has much better players with better measurables, better skills and higher upsides to chose from.

[ChuckDurn]

I think these are my current tiers, though I’ll probably do an additional tweak or two, and might forget a couple of guys accidentally…..

Tier 1: Cunningham
Tier 2: Mobley, Green, Suggs
Tier 3: Barnes, Kuminga
Tier 4: Wagner, Moody, Bouknight
Tier 5: Sengun, Giddey, Jalen Johnson, Mitchell, Kispert, Duarte
Tier 6: Keon Johnson, Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Springer, Murphy

That’s 20 players…….

Assuming my tiers 1-3 are off the board, I think I’d currently lean toward taking Wagner with #7, though that might change.

[Scoots1994]

Poole averaged 4 APG when Steph was out, which is pretty solid considering that's without our 2 best shooters and being flanked by Oubre/Wiggins/Dray/Looney. Poole is literally a poor man's Curry out there. Like I said, and like we did - if Curry goes down, Poole goes into his spot in the lineup. 22 - 3 - 4 on 59% TS and runs the PnR well too. Meanwhile our typical backup PG during our run, Shaun Livingston, averaged 2 APG as well.

Poole was the direct backup to Curry last year and had a mini breakout season, subbed in pretty well for him too.. he's fine in a backup scoring PG role. Might even be ideal because he mirrors Curry's strengths and weaknesses.

IDK, I think Poole's barely manageable in a PG role, sure he can do a little of that but IMO it's not his strength. Wannamaker was supposed to fill that role but obviously that was a complete bust. To me we still need a distributer off the bench to complement Poole's scoring—Poole would be more effective not having to create his own shot all the time—and preferably someone who also plays excellent defense. Mitchell looks like he would be a good fit for that role.

But what is a backup point guard? Sure, someone who fills in off the bench while Steph is resting. But you also have to think about injuries, like what if Steph goes down for 10, 20, 30 games? Now Jordan Poole is your starting PG and I think that's a disaster that could cost us a playoff berth. I want to see a point-first player available and we don't have that right now.

I would prefer taking Mitchell more at #14 of course and I get that there's many other uses for the #7 pick, and good players to be had there. But even though Mitchell might be a slight reach at #7, he's most likely gone far before #14. Outside of Cade and Suggs at the top, this draft is loaded with talent but light on PGs you would take in the #7-#14 range.

I see point guard who plays defense as a critical need while many here only see it as a nice-to-have type of thing and I guess that's where we differ.

EDIT: Of course it's possible we could acquire such a player outside of the draft but our resources for making trades and matching salaries are very limited. And if our choices are Wannamaker-level players...yeesh.

To be clear, if Steph goes down, we arent a playoff team in any scenario. But I'd rather replace him with someone with a mirrored skillset than someone who changes how we have to operate

But this ties back into the BPA argument above - you cite a lack of options at PG as a reason to get on Mitchell, also citing lack of options in FA.. well I think the 2nd round is loaded with PG potential, and I think a shoot-first PG is fine as long as they have solid BBIQ. I wouldnt be worried at all if we drafted a SRP PG, had Poole and Nico rostered as well, and just continued to add high IQ players in the vain of JTA, who don't necessarily create but are smart enough to keep the ball hopping around. Livingston was basically that kind of player. And there are several people in this draft (Barnes, Jalen Johnson) as well as other PGs (Hyland, Mann, McBride) who seem to fit our team better and in most cases, cost less draft capital.

I definitely dont see a PG who plays defense as a critical need - we have Steph Curry - but we do need someone who can defend PGs. Wiggins did pretty well against PGs last year and probably is taking Klay's spot in that area. Moody could as well, if drafted. But the value of mostly defensive perimeter players was demonstrated by GP3, who was a waiver wire afterthought most of the season. I feel similarly about create-only PGs (like Giddey) as well.. our offense needs a PG who can score, first and foremost. Our offense is a pass happy, ball sharing, perimeter based team that opens up the inside for our defense-first bigs who are limited offensively. System has worked, why change it?

Where are the Warriors getting a 2nd round pick? I'd like them to buy one but I don't know any are for sale.

[Scoots1994]

I keep reading (and thinking myself) "I would be fine taking him at 14, not at 7".
I'm wondering if trading down could not be a good idea to save some money and maybe get an additional asset. There are so many intriguing players at a close level from #7 to the early 20s that it may be easier to get lower picks where you can pick players like Mitchell or Kispert with less anxiety.

I wouldn't want to trade down until the clock is ticking on that pick. If Cade fell to 7 and the pick had been traded that would be terrible.

If the team is on the clock and they have 5 guys with an equal grade on their board and they can trade down to 11 for a future 1st they should jump on it.

[ChuckDurn]

IDK, I think Poole's barely manageable in a PG role, sure he can do a little of that but IMO it's not his strength. Wannamaker was supposed to fill that role but obviously that was a complete bust. To me we still need a distributer off the bench to complement Poole's scoring—Poole would be more effective not having to create his own shot all the time—and preferably someone who also plays excellent defense. Mitchell looks like he would be a good fit for that role.

But what is a backup point guard? Sure, someone who fills in off the bench while Steph is resting. But you also have to think about injuries, like what if Steph goes down for 10, 20, 30 games? Now Jordan Poole is your starting PG and I think that's a disaster that could cost us a playoff berth. I want to see a point-first player available and we don't have that right now.

I would prefer taking Mitchell more at #14 of course and I get that there's many other uses for the #7 pick, and good players to be had there. But even though Mitchell might be a slight reach at #7, he's most likely gone far before #14. Outside of Cade and Suggs at the top, this draft is loaded with talent but light on PGs you would take in the #7-#14 range.

I see point guard who plays defense as a critical need while many here only see it as a nice-to-have type of thing and I guess that's where we differ.

EDIT: Of course it's possible we could acquire such a player outside of the draft but our resources for making trades and matching salaries are very limited. And if our choices are Wannamaker-level players...yeesh.

To be clear, if Steph goes down, we arent a playoff team in any scenario. But I'd rather replace him with someone with a mirrored skillset than someone who changes how we have to operate

But this ties back into the BPA argument above - you cite a lack of options at PG as a reason to get on Mitchell, also citing lack of options in FA.. well I think the 2nd round is loaded with PG potential, and I think a shoot-first PG is fine as long as they have solid BBIQ. I wouldnt be worried at all if we drafted a SRP PG, had Poole and Nico rostered as well, and just continued to add high IQ players in the vain of JTA, who don't necessarily create but are smart enough to keep the ball hopping around. Livingston was basically that kind of player. And there are several people in this draft (Barnes, Jalen Johnson) as well as other PGs (Hyland, Mann, McBride) who seem to fit our team better and in most cases, cost less draft capital.

I definitely dont see a PG who plays defense as a critical need - we have Steph Curry - but we do need someone who can defend PGs. Wiggins did pretty well against PGs last year and probably is taking Klay's spot in that area. Moody could as well, if drafted. But the value of mostly defensive perimeter players was demonstrated by GP3, who was a waiver wire afterthought most of the season. I feel similarly about create-only PGs (like Giddey) as well.. our offense needs a PG who can score, first and foremost. Our offense is a pass happy, ball sharing, perimeter based team that opens up the inside for our defense-first bigs who are limited offensively. System has worked, why change it?

Where are the Warriors getting a 2nd round pick? I'd like them to buy one but I don't know any are for sale.

As of now, OKC has #34, #36, and #55, in addition to their 3 first-round picks. They’re obviously going to make some deals with those, but one or more of their picks may end up being for sale, depending on what they’re able to swing (or not swing).

[whatisacenter]

Anybody else catch Giddey playing for Australia vs Nigeria? He played pretty well, hit a couple of 3’s and showed his passing skills. Definitely not a finished product and he needs to tighten his handle and get stronger but he is only 18.

[DevinVassell]

Watch on YouTube

[DevinVassell]

Watch on YouTube

Pretty lame. Only for the diehards.

[The411]

So many intriguing choices. The most interesting one is Vrenz Bleijenbergh as he's a 6'10 Guard with dazzling passing skills. Jumper is a bit weird looking but he's a good 3 shooter and has strong ball handling for someone of his size.

Woah, hadn't even heard of this guy. At first glance, seems like he'd be a great guy to have handling the ball with the second unit with Poole.

Watch on YouTube

second round guy? undrafted?

Going to depend on how his tryouts go. He’s been flying up the boards. I think he’s late first at the moment.


Certainly has question marks but he has a high ceiling/low floor