shrink wrote:Domejandro wrote:shrink wrote:I’m with shangrila on this one. Every small sample compilation video can make even a college player look unstoppable.
Next, I watched the first 6-8 possessions, and none of them looked like a 5-out to me.
Finally, the “entire crux” of the anti-Simmons argument is not one playoff series with bad free throw shooting, it’s
1. A big max deal
2. His inability to shoot three pointers limits KAT’s match up ability. (Career: 14.7%)
3. His lack of improvement his whole career in shooting
4. His defender can clog the lane (because of his lack of shooting), making it harder for Edwards and others to drive the lane.
5. A lack of confidence that may remain where he refuses to shoot and is afraid to get fouled.
6. His poor free throw shooting makes a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy tough in the playoffs. (52% in 34 playoff games, not one bad series)
I understand MIN fans rarely get nice shiny things, so everything looks better than it is to us our hunger. I also understand Simmons is one of the best defensive players in the league. But the offensive, financial, and mental risks (continued inability to shoot, getting worse) are there, and need to be factored into his valuation and fit on this team.
The line-up is Seth Curry, Danny Green, Tobias Harris, Mike Scott, and Ben Simmons, that is the structure of a five-out line-up (look at the open lanes that Ben Simmons takes advantage of), despite Coach Rivers' bad offense.
Regardless, Ben Simmons absolutely does not undercut Karl-Anthony Towns' "match up ability". When you put a big on Ben Simmons, he is consistently able to drive passed them, especially when you put Simmons in pick-and-roll action (for example, that video shows him torching Derrick Favors in pick-and-roll as Philadelphia's center). You can look at any video, but I'll use the Utah game one there to illustrate it, look at the way in which Derrick Favors (who is objectively an incredibly mobile big man defensive player) is not able to pick up in space due to Simmons' elite screening technique. This happens to Gobert in the third quarter as well. In particular, his actions as a screener for Tobias Harris illustrate how frightening an Anthony Edwards and Ben Simmons pick-and-roll would be, given Simmons' ability to operate as a finisher and shovel passer.
The component that your "he can't shoot" analysis is missing (in my opinion) is that you are not incorporating how elite Ben Simmons is as a finisher. He rounds out the top-three tier alongside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williams as elite wing finishers. Game three of this year's NBA finals had Giannis scoring forty-one points without making a single shot outside of four-feet. When you have that level of finishing ability as a ball-handler, you literally can't rotate your big man onto them because of their mobility (especially as cutters). This creates a matchup problem, given that Ben Simmons abuses smaller defenders.
The biggest component that does need to be fixed is his free-throw shooting. He is a career 59.7% free-throw shooter, the team would need to develop him into consistently shooting at least 65% from the line and maintain that during Playoff basketball; slightly over 60% is roughly the breakpoint where hack-a-[insert name] becomes bunk strategy, so I think 65% is what he needs to consistently reach. I think that is completely doable.
I appreciate this post. I am not the x’s-and-o’s guy that many are on this board, so I am constantly learning.
I would ask a question though
In the previous season, a pair of back-to-back UTA games had a profound affect on me. In the first game, the Jazz played Gobert on Towns, Rudy stayed close to the rim, and Towns torched him for like 9-for-13 three’s and a Wolves win. The next game, the Wolves continued to play with two big men that were credible three point threats. The Jazz had to counter by playing Rudy Gobert man-to-man on Towns, all the way out to the perimeter. One of the historically greatest defensive centers at altering and taking away shots underneath was forced to completely abandon his strength, because of the match up problems!
If Simmons is on the floor, Gobert just stays underneath, right? And am I mislabeling a 5-out, where all five players can be a threat outside to make a three pointer, requiring they be guarded out there?
Five-out is an offensive strategy the heavily emphasizes spacing and opening driving lanes by having mostly interchangeable players that can perform functions of ball-handling, shooting, and passing. Start at four minutes, this three minute section of this video is honestly the most succinct explanation of the offense I have ever seen, despite being a basic breakdown.
As you can see, there are moments in which there are non-elite shooters (Dwight Powell) and post-up possessions (Boban Marjanović), but it is more-so an offensive strategy that is easily modifiable for a screener/ball-handler of Simmons' caliber.
I decided to go back and watch the highlights to check, and found that pretty much all the instances of Towns torching Rudy Gobert off of the floor always had Josh Okogie in the game who - while technically more of a shooter than Ben Simmons - is also half a foot shorter and can't dribble around a folding chair. Pre-Finch, highlights often show Towns torching Gobert with Jarrett Culver/Ricky Rubio and Josh Okogie on the floor (with one hilarious highlight of Towns being surrounded by the horrifying shooting trio of Culver, Okogie, AND Treveon Graham.... YUCK!).
In any case, I don't have time for a full writeup, but Rudy Gobert literally cannot guard Ben Simmons in space, he is not nearly mobile enough and would get torched because of Ben Simmons' handle and cutting ability (there is evidence of that). If Towns gets Royce O'Neal (or whomever) switched onto him (which they wouldn't do unless it is a direct Town/Simmons ball screen situation), Towns would eat Royce O'Neal alive because of his size (the highlights literally show evidence of actions where Gobert stays in the paint and Towns torches smaller players on the perimeter). Functionally, Ben Simmons' ability to handle, pass, cut, and screen at 6'10 makes him a serious threat in any zone, given that he is an elite finisher in traffic (>65% under five feet on seven attempts per game, despite teams packing the paint on his drives). If you watch Philadelphia, teams rarely put their big man on Ben Simmons, given that he is too mobile and Joel Embiid presents too many match-up problems for smaller players.
To put it succinctly for time reasons, even if that was a concern (which it just isn't), Karl-Anthony Towns would still feast against the smaller player. Plus, this is all offensive talk that ignores him literally being a 6'10"-11" player that literally can go from defending Stephen Curry on the perimeter to bodying elite NBA centers; his defensive ability is freakish.
Except Oden manged to play over 100 games in the NBA, I don't think Embiid will play more.
