Cade and O.J. Mayo...

[bkseven]

Was listening to a Chad Ford podcast and they brought up OJ as Cade's floor while comparing mostly just stats..

Did a Google search and found this article, which again only relies on some stat categories. Thoughts? I don't think Cade will bust... but just food for thought.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/12/four-factors-of-cade-cunninghams-offense/comment-page-1/

[Scout Taron]

I feel like it's insanely embarrassing for a supposed statistical analysis to not even consider Usage Rate, considering it's direct negative correlative relationship with all other effeciency. You could find a lot guys in the NCAA with insanely high 2p%s that aren't NBA prospects, lol.

[bstein14]

OJ Mayo and Cade had very similar college stats. Mayo was considered an elite prospect. He was compared to Jordan coming out of college. Both Cade and Mayo shot over 40+% from 3 on about 6 attempts per game. Both were a little bit lower on the 2pt FG% than you might like. Both scored just a tad over 20 PPG as freshman. 1.5 and 1.6 SPG on average. Both were high usage and somewhat high turnover players (3.5 and 4.0). Both on the lower end of assists at 3.5 per game, for being such high usage players.

Cade's worst case in the NBA if he stays healthy is likely a borderline all-star. He certainly isn't guaranteed to be an all-nba player or anything. He isn't guaranteed to be a 5+ time all-star. That's why there is some appeal of a trade down if you also get an established young star like SGA or if you get a handful of extra first rounders.

That said, Cade seemingly has some things going for him. Obviously his size is one thing, being 6'8" is just better than being a bit of an undersized SG. Mayo not living up to potential also may have more to do about work ethic and desire to be great. You can get naturally gifted players who can dominate in college but it takes a lot more than natural gifts to dominate the next level. To a certain degree OJ was like the Drummond of SG's. Had gifts but didn't fully put them to work and didn't really have the desire to be great.

[chrbal]

What I could read of the article came off as someone selecting information and ignoring key facts to build a smart sounding article.




Cade could be great or horrible, but to compare him to Wiggins is ignoring so much about each player.

[Snakebites]

Every time I hear the name Chad Ford, the next name that comes to my mind is "Darko".

No, I'm never letting it go. I ignore Chad Ford unapologetically.

[NYPiston]

It drives me nuts when they point to his assist totals as proof that he's not a good playmaker and it's mostly from these analytic nerds who use spreadsheets as gospel.

I watched a lot of Oklahoma State games and there were countless times when he set up a teammate for a good shot and they couldn't put the ball in the ocean. Most of their players had horrid three point percentages. The team around him actually got a little better towards the end of the season but his supporting cast was a mess most of the season. Plus teams doubled Cade a lot because he was often their only real scoring threat.

He's exactly the type of player who will thrive around NBA talent with more floor spacing. I wouldn't worry about some of these college stats, at all.

[EliteSmarts]

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/18/is-cade-cunningham-clearly-the-best-prospect-in-2021/

This is really good article and player analysis of Cade Cunningham. After reading this, he is not the home run pick I thought he was.

[EliteSmarts]

What I could read of the article came off as someone selecting information and ignoring key facts to build a smart sounding article.




Cade could be great or horrible, but to compare him to Wiggins is ignoring so much about each player.

What are the key factors you think he's ignoring?

I'm being serious, trying to find as much information as I can about first round prospects.

[7r5ur]

There's a whole lot of cherry picking in that article.

Being on a team with no shooters and trash spacing means the lane is always packed. AKA tougher to score at the rim and fewer assist opportunities if guys can't knock down open shots. This is obvious to anyone who watched a few OSU games and it reflects in the stats.

[7r5ur]

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/18/is-cade-cunningham-clearly-the-best-prospect-in-2021/

This is really good article and player analysis of Cade Cunningham. After reading this, he is not the home run pick I thought he was.

This guy also has Franz Wagner, Alperen Sengun, and Josh Giddey as better prospects than Jalen Green.

He rated Okongwu as the best player in 2020 over Lamelo, Ant, etc.

Steaming hot takes all over that site.

[DBC10]

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/18/is-cade-cunningham-clearly-the-best-prospect-in-2021/

This is really good article and player analysis of Cade Cunningham. After reading this, he is not the home run pick I thought he was.

Seems needlessly nitpicky and trying too hard to zag the other way by being a contrarian. So a anti-circlejerk. Which I'm all for differing viewpoints but the article is rough with no real standardized baseline for comparisons of what the stats that guy is pulling from. Like I get Cade shot 46% (need source) from inside the arc, but what's the baseline and comparison to who?

[FloridaMan78]

OJ Mayo was a gifted basketball player. He should have been really good. But he was a mental midget that didn’t have the drive to be great, just the talent.

[Moses ShamMoses]

My biggest takeaway is Cade isn't a sure thing. The author's best point is related to his high floor as starter but limited ceiling as his craftiness is offset by a lack of explosion. I can understand that point. Weaver just needs to do his thing...

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using RealGM mobile app

[vege]

Weaver just needs to do his thing...

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using RealGM mobile app

Yes, draft Cade, that's all he need to do.

[buzzkilloton]

I follow Dean on twitter and have for years. Also have discussedbasketball posts on twoplustwo forums for years with him before even having a blog. I listened to the podcast of him and Chad Ford recently. First off Dean loves to go againt the grain on prospects. Thats his thing. Hes sometimes right sometimes wrong.

The whole idea behind the Chad Ford podcast was Ford couldnt find anyone that had Cade not number one. He wanted a guest who argued he wasnt number one for a diff outlook. Dean was that guy. So you really need to take into account that everyone was pro Cade but Dean and not go "well Dean doesnt like Cade I guess I should be worried".

Dean has been against Cade on twitter since game 1 of the season of seeing him and still Dean can only get Cade to 4 on his big board. When the guy who hates you the most still thinks hes 4 I'd say thats a positive. Mind you he has fan favorite Jalen Green at 8 on his big board another consensus top 3 pick.

Now to Mayo. Mayo was actually a good looking player in college. Mayo even was rookie of the year season one. That said you cant just take exact stats like Dean does and go "well Cade is Oj Mayo" First off Mayo is 6'5 with a 6'7 wing span Cade is 6'8 with a 7ft wingspan if we make Cade 6'5 and 6'7 wingspan he loses alot of sexiness. More importantly is OJ Mayo was a complete headcase. Mayo was banned from the league for 2 years for hard drugs, was said to have tons of trouble in High school and college,ended up getting fat in the NBA a few seasons in, and even got USC a one year post season ban. Cade is nothing like Oj Mayo hes just using stats without taking anything else into context.

[chrbal]

What I could read of the article came off as someone selecting information and ignoring key facts to build a smart sounding article.




Cade could be great or horrible, but to compare him to Wiggins is ignoring so much about each player.

What are the key factors you think he's ignoring?

I'm being serious, trying to find as much information as I can about first round prospects.

Honestly i didn’t read the article enough to really answer your question properly. I would answer the question more to the group

[The Moose]

What I could read of the article came off as someone selecting information and ignoring key facts to build a smart sounding article.




Cade could be great or horrible, but to compare him to Wiggins is ignoring so much about each player.

What are the key factors you think he's ignoring?

I'm being serious, trying to find as much information as I can about first round prospects.

Personally, I think Cade was slightly misused and not in his ideal role in college, and it had a negative effect on some things that stats guys obsess over. NCAA Ast/TO doesn't correlate to anything for wing players in the NBA, but these guys are working under the assumption that Cade is a 'point guard', he's not. All of the best wing playmakers in the NBA had worse projected playmaking abilities than Cade. So I think he is ignoring the context of Cade being an unusual case of a top prospect and ignoring his eye test too much. At the same time he uses Cade's oreb% as evidence he will struggle with NBA speed and physicality by comparing it to NCAA wing players, ignoring that guards and wings will usually have a variance in oreb opportunities. He is switching his projection between guard and wing to help his case basically. Cade's oreb rate is similar to NCAA guards like A Edwards, Klay Thompson, Booker, and had Cade been playing a more tradtional wing role, I'm fairly sure it would be easily in the Jayson Tatum range.
A lot of wings flourish far more in the NBA than they do in the NCAA, which I think will be the case for Cade.
He's also ignoring Cade's ability to improve his game, we've seen it with his shooting, which he has drastically improved. I'm pretty confident skills like ball handling and finishing through contact are skills he will improve too.

He is ignoring that big wing players with skill+shooting+defense are the most valuable archetype in the NBA, and any team that has success deep in the playoffs has one. It's hands down the most important role to fill and this is Detroit's best opportunity to add one.
Even most of Cade's biggest critics usually use Khris Middleton as a potential average outcome for his career, and Middleton is currently coming up huge in NBA finals games.

[jakebernat]

Mayo would be a better floor comparison for Suggs.

[vic]

I follow Dean on twitter and have for years. Also have discussedbasketball posts on twoplustwo forums for years with him before even having a blog. I listened to the podcast of him and Chad Ford recently. First off Dean loves to go againt the grain on prospects. Thats his thing. Hes sometimes right sometimes wrong.

The whole idea behind the Chad Ford podcast was Ford couldnt find anyone that had Cade not number one. He wanted a guest who argued he wasnt number one for a diff outlook. Dean was that guy. So you really need to take into account that everyone was pro Cade but Dean and not go "well Dean doesnt like Cade I guess I should be worried".

Dean has been against Cade on twitter since game 1 of the season of seeing him and still Dean can only get Cade to 4 on his big board. When the guy who hates you the most still thinks hes 4 I'd say thats a positive. Mind you he has fan favorite Jalen Green at 8 on his big board another consensus top 3 pick.

Now to Mayo. Mayo was actually a good looking player in college. Mayo even was rookie of the year season one. That said you cant just take exact stats like Dean does and go "well Cade is Oj Mayo" First off Mayo is 6'5 with a 6'7 wing span Cade is 6'8 with a 7ft wingspan if we make Cade 6'5 and 6'7 wingspan he loses alot of sexiness. More importantly is OJ Mayo was a complete headcase. Mayo was banned from the league for 2 years for hard drugs, was said to have tons of trouble in High school and college,ended up getting fat in the NBA a few seasons in, and even got USC a one year post season ban. Cade is nothing like Oj Mayo hes just using stats without taking anything else into context.

Exactly!

I like Dean's analysis too, but he tends to be anal sometimes. He likes attention.

He also said Trae young would be a bench pg like JJ Barea and struggle to be as good as Tyus Jones.

Sometimes he uses numbers to ignore other factors, instead of inform the big picture.

[vic]

What I could read of the article came off as someone selecting information and ignoring key facts to build a smart sounding article.




Cade could be great or horrible, but to compare him to Wiggins is ignoring so much about each player.

What are the key factors you think he's ignoring?

I'm being serious, trying to find as much information as I can about first round prospects.

Personally, I think Cade was slightly misused and not in his ideal role in college, and it had a negative effect on some things that stats guys obsess over. NCAA Ast/TO doesn't correlate to anything for wing players in the NBA, but these guys are working under the assumption that Cade is a 'point guard', he's not. All of the best wing playmakers in the NBA had worse projected playmaking abilities than Cade. So I think he is ignoring the context of Cade being an unusual case of a top prospect and ignoring his eye test too much. At the same time he uses Cade's oreb% as evidence he will struggle with NBA speed and physicality by comparing it to NCAA wing players, ignoring that guards and wings will usually have a variance in oreb opportunities. He is switching his projection between guard and wing to help his case basically. Cade's oreb rate is similar to NCAA guards like A Edwards, Klay Thompson, Booker, and had Cade been playing a more tradtional wing role, I'm fairly sure it would be easily in the Jayson Tatum range.
A lot of wings flourish far more in the NBA than they do in the NCAA, which I think will be the case for Cade.
He's also ignoring Cade's ability to improve his game, we've seen it with his shooting, which he has drastically improved. I'm pretty confident skills like ball handling and finishing through contact are skills he will improve too.

He is ignoring that big wing players with skill+shooting+defense are the most valuable archetype in the NBA, and any team that has success deep in the playoffs has one. It's hands down the most important role to fill and this is Detroit's best opportunity to add one.
Even most of Cade's biggest critics usually use Khris Middleton as a potential average outcome for his career, and Middleton is currently coming up huge in NBA finals games.

ROund of Applause

I told Dean this myself, but you said it much better.